Aubrey Dunn Throws A Block At Moores, Files for Independent Run for ABQ Congress Seat And Could Corral R Votes, Plus: More On Filing Day And Key Analysis At The Starting Gate

No wonder GOP congressional candidate Mark Moores centered his first TV spot on his UNM football playing days. The spot appeals mainly to men and Moores now has a man-sized problem. 

Former GOP Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn is officially an independent candidate for the seat left vacant when Rep. Deb Haaland was named Sec. of Interior, and Dunn is likely to split GOP votes with Moores, unless the ABQ state senator can tackle him.

On Tuesday's filing day at the office of the Secretary of State, Dunn submitted 6,000 petition signatures to make the June 1 ballot, about 4,400 more than required. Unless there is a successful court challenge to those signatures Dunn will be on the playing field. 

As expected, filing for the Dems was State Rep. Melanie Stansbury and Chris Manning for the Libertarian Party. Two write-in candidates, Laura Olivas of NE ABQ and Robert Ornelas who gave an Anaheim, CA address and phone contact. Both are independents. (Full list of filers is here.)

New Mexico has never sent an independent candidate to the US House and Dunn is unlikely to make history, but he is no slouch in the vote-getting department, having narrowly won the land office in 2014 in a Democratic state. 

His presence on the ballot is not a minor headache for fellow conservative Moores. Combined with the Libertarian candidate, who will also tend to draw from the R's, his chances of inching past Stansbury are diminished. 

While Moores took to the gridiron to launch his TV campaign, Stansbury talked a bit like an athlete in her first paid TV outing, saying New Mexicans are "resilient, determined and full of heart."

Both spots were of the "getting to know me" variety. The negative will come in a couple of weeks. The start of early in-person voting May 15 is a psychological deadline to get the race in your corner as the great majority of votes are expected to be cast well before the June 1 election day. 

SOLID DEM

Stansbury

The ABQ congressional race starts here ranked as "Solid Dem." Here's why:

--No R has been elected to the seat since 2006 and the last close election was in 2010.

--The Dems are coming off an historic 61 percent presidential win in the district for Joe Biden in 2020.

--The sitting Dem Gov. has been involved in controversy but her popularity has not crashed, depriving the R's of an easy target. 

--Some voters may be disappointed that there is not a Hispanic or Native American contender in the contest, but the majority of that vote is registered Democratic and are not about to cross over to Moores who says his mother is Hispanic. 

--No corruption meme has surfaced about Stansbury, a key item for the GOP when they are able to find success.

--Moores is a good fund-raiser but the national R's are not targeting the race which would mean substantially more resources. The national Dems will flood the money zone at the first sign of any trouble. 

The Solid Dem ranking is subject to change but to move it will take a major shift in the campaign. 

SIGN OF THE TIMES

They probably have some Ben-Gay at the ready to treat any hand strain MLG may get this week. She continues to sign and veto (mostly sign) over 100 bills approved at the recent legislative session as the Friday deadline for her decisions fast approaches.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. 

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. 

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021