The survey comes from RRH Elections, a site run by a team of ten volunteer hobbyists and whose polls are financed by reader donations. The poll was conducted May 18-21 using robo calls to landlines and internet surveys. But before we give you the numbers we need to report that the poll does not provide the party affiliations of the voters surveyed.
An RRH spokesman tells us:
We've found that asking people their party is a surprisingly unreliable way to determine party support (i.e. there are plenty of people that may be registered with one party but support another, or call themselves Independents, which does not help us break out their partisanship). Thus, we think that presidential approval is more often a reliable, reproducible metric for two-way partisanship, and we focused on asking about that and breaking down our results by that metric.
The poll had Biden getting 58-39 approval in the district, close to his 60-37 victory here last November..
As for the poll, it has Stansbury leading Moores 49% to 33%. Independent Aubrey Dunn garnered 5% and Libertarian Chris Manning 3 percent. Nine percent were undecided.
The poll was taken among what RRH says are 555 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
While the poll's methodology may raise questions, most pundits agree that the race is the Dems to lose considering the district's decade long history of D outperformance.
There is a glimmer of hope for R's looking for some. Early voter turnout through the weekend was only 52,569 or about 11.5% of the 459,000 registered voters in the district. Moores needs a very low and unpredictable turnout to upset the polling models and get the race in play.
Democrats have cast 31,540 early votes or 60 percent of the total. Their party registration is 47 percent. R's have cast 14,581. That's 28 percent of the early vote and matches their 28 percent registration.
While the R's have been improving their early turnout numbers, the Dem dominance is notable. The R's will need a big Election Day turnout to catch up.
A turnout of 25 percent of registered voters would be about 115,000 ballots cast.
DC pundit Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections ranks the race Solid Democrat.
Election Day is June 1. We'll have complete results and analysis on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com beginning at 6:45 p.m. next Tuesday.
TRAIL CHATTER
Stansbury has been increasingly leaning on her association with moderate President Biden to water down Moore's constant attack that she is a radical. Here's an example:
There is so much at stake in this election, from recovering from the pandemic and building up our economy to addressing systemic poverty and social justice issues. I will work with President Biden to get New Mexico back on track!
Moores has been endorsed by the ABQ police officers union and says he is the only candidate who "cares" about law enforcement. Stansbury has been endorsed by the teachers union NEA-NM.
WHERE'S SANDIA?
Rumors have been flying about the luxury resort's future.
We contacted the Sandia Pueblo Governor's office for comment but have not heard back. Meanwhile, a source connected with Isleta Pueblo tells us the word is that the resort may reopen in August. "They are taking their time and emphasizing safety. I make nothing of the rumors. They will open when they are ready." He said.
Sandia recently completed a major expansion and upgrade so when it does reopen the experience, as their promotions say, "should be far from ordinary." But don't try making hotel reservations quite yet. They are not available.
This is the home of New Mexico politics.
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021