Special Election '21: Moores Anti-Crime Narrative Could Help Other R's Or Hurt Them, Plus: Dem Dominance In Early Vote; Here To Stay?

There's more riding on Republican Mark Moores' anti-crime pitch than his own candidacy for the ABQ area congressional seat. If the Moores all crime all the time approach pays dividends Election Night, it could generate a strong Republican candidate for attorney general for next year's election and also provide some solace for conservative Dem Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales, who is challenging Mayor Tim Keller in this November's election.

But if Moores' crime pitch goes kaput it could also mean the door will remain closed to the R's who are currently shut out of all statewide offices. Ditto for Manny G. If Moores can't at least knick Dem nominee Melanie Stansbury with his crime narrative it could signal that the Sheriff could face the same fate. 

Right now Moores does not appear anywhere close to knicking Stansbury. In fact, the early vote has the Alligators and insiders pondering whether this race will just be another routine Dem blowout, just as all but one of the elections for the ABQ congressional seat has been since 2008. (There was close one in the 2010 Tea Party year.)

The latest early voting numbers through Tuesday morning do not bode well for the R's. 

Nearly 67 percent of the total early vote (26,226)--including absentees--has been cast by Democrats and only 21 percent by R's. It's unlikely that huge gap will hold all the way to June 1 and not every Dem is going for the D candidate, but the vast majority surely are. (Dems make up 47 percent of the district voters and R's 28 percent). 

Then there is the money and air game so crucial in the final 13 days. Insider Dems predict that in these final days Moores will be "buried" under a mountain of digital, mail and TV advertising. With national R's not riding to the rescue, Moores is on his own. That's why the first murmurs of "blowout" are being uttered. 

HER LATEST

Stansbury's latest media certainly doesn't reflect any panic or even deep concern. Her new TV ad keeps to the positive. The piece touts the state rep's sponsorship of a bill that eliminated the copayment required of low income school kids getting reduced-price breakfast and lunch. In it she takes a ride on the popular coattails of the Prez:

I’m running for Congress to work with President Biden to support our families and grow more jobs right here in New Mexico. I approve this message for them.

Stansbury's coattail ride will have the national media abuzz with how the race is a test of Biden's popularity and if Stansbury falters, it will also be a fall for him. Well, right now that test looks pretty good for Scranton Joe. With those very favorable Dem early voting numbers, he probably had Jill ring up Melanie and tell her to get him in on the action.

NOT PHASED

From the Socorro County Sheriff:

An officer was dispatched to Highway 304 in reference to a suspicious vehicle and upon arrival observed a male on the shoulder of the and when the male saw the patrol vehicle he began to run northbound. The subject, who was joined by a female subject was stopped by the officer. The male was very irate, telling the officer he and the female had been fighting, but it was only verbal, not physical. The male was getting more irate and began to leave the scene on foot, ignoring commands to stop. The suspect repeatedly refused to follow commands and was tased. As the officer was handcuffing him, the suspect broke away with one cuff on, saying, “you can’t even phase me,” and was brought to the ground by the officer. 

And so it goes.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021