Our Sunshine State

The latest voter stats from the SOS show that a majority of New Mexico's registered voters continue to reside in the three most urbanized counties--Bernalillo, Dona Ana and Santa Fe. About 51 percent of the 1.344 million registered live in those locales, slightly higher than the June 2020 figures.

Those three counties also happen to be among the most liberal and show the uphill climb Republicans have in reestablishing themselves or face a lost decade. 

But R's actually fear something more sinister--a permanent Californication of New Mexican politics that leaves them in the desert for the foreseeable future as has happened on the West Coast. 

There is no sign at all of a moderate Republican strain emerging that in the past has made possible GOP victories in this Democratic state. 

The major candidates for the 2022 GOP Guv nomination are cemented on the right wing and the shadow of Trump is making it nearly impossible for a breakaway faction to emerge and reignite the party. 

Activists such as radio talk show host Eddy Aragon believe the party is in trouble because it has not gone all in for Trumpism but the evidence points to the opposite. The party of Trump has little appeal to most minorities in a state that is now decidedly majority-minority and his lopsided defeat by Biden here proves the point. 

R's fretting over their fate dread the upcoming redistricting of legislative and congressional boundaries but wonder how much worse it can get. 

Well, history says it can get worse. Back in the 70's and 80's when the Dems had another period of ultra-dominance, the state went 16 years without a GOP Governor--from 1971 to 1987. 

The GOP must change or face a continued withering but a needed debate about that may be stalled until the shadow of Trump is gone.

BY THE NUMBERS

As of June, 682,925 of the state's 1.344 registered voters were in the three aforementioned urban counties. Big BernCo continues to hold about 33 percent of the total registered.

#5

The number today is five. That’s how many GOP gubernatorial candidates are now seeking the party’s  nomination  in the 2022 primary. 

Number five is Truth or Consequences State Rep.  Rebecca Dow. She tossed her hat into the ring this week, saying a major campaign theme will focus on reducing regulations to kickstart New Mexico’s economy. 

She’ll need a lot more imagination than that if she is going to pose a serious threat to Gov. Lujan Grisham. But one supposes in a five way or more primary Dow can get away with it. However, it will be interesting to see when the infighting breaks out over which R backs Trump more or doesn’t back him.

Dow is well-spoken and a respected voice in Santa Fe with an expertise in early childhood care, a niche that is vitally important to the state’s future. As the only woman candidate and with over $100,000 to start her governor campaign by using her legislative funds, Dow could be dubbed an early front runner.

The question looming over all the contenders is who can raise $1 million or more for the primary. 

The Journal’s pollster calls the GOP field “strong.” That is way too charitable. None of the hopefuls is known statewide and none has a track record of raising  considerable sums of campaign money. 

It’s unlikely that we get a major GOP challenge to this Democratic Governor unless her polling starts dropping below 50%. That’s the number to watch as we count to five today.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.