Second place is only important if Keller fails to garner 50 percent of the vote. In that event a run-off election will be called for December between the top two vote-getters.
The polling we've been looped into by reliable sources indicates if the election were held today Keller would cross that 50 percent threshold but the most intense phase of the campaign, including attacks, is only about to start.
A run-off election for Keller is a threat as it could reset the race for many voters. Still, in a Democratic city and facing either conservative Gonzales or Aragon, Keller would remain the favorite.
Forcing the Mayor into a run-off is now dependent on Gonzales and Aragon capturing the boiling rage that lies just below the surface in the state's largest city as it remains embroiled in a historic and long-lasting crime wave.
MORE STATE OF THE RACE
Unfortunately for Gonzales, he continues to grapple with a nightmare narrative over campaign financing. Last week the City Ethics Board fined him
$2,000--one of the largest ever--and he was also publicly reprimanded for having his campaign commit forgery as it tried to qualify for public financing.
For two long months his campaign has been consumed by legal battles over that financing and to no avail. Court rulings mean he will not get the over $600,000 that Keller has. Aragon is privately financing and Gonzales has been forced to go that route.
The botched signature operation has been a momentum killer for the lawman who is campaigning on a platform of law and order in crime-ridden ABQ.
Consultants on both sides of the aisle now say in his paid media Gonzales must answer voter concerns over the election fraud and also launch vigorous attacks on Keller's record on crime. They also agree that Gonzales was badly advised to continue fighting for the public money and should have quit after the initial court ruling. They say that would have given him more time to raise private cash as well as begin overdue attacks on Keller.
The Gonzales campaign now says the sheriff has raised "nearly $200,000" in private donations. A report earlier this month had a pro-Manny PAC independent of the Gonzales campaign with $92,000 on hand. A PAC backing Keller reported $52,000 in cash. Entering the race late, Aragon reported raising $32,000 and had about $13,000 in cash.
ENDORSEMENT FRONT
Gonzales, desperately needing to focus on crime, comes with this endorsement from former APD Chief Mike Geier who was fired by Keller:
Albuquerque is dying! Crime is rampant, with homicides at an all time high. Traffic enforcement is non-existent and the homeless and panhandlers have taken over the city. APD is understaffed with morale at an all time low. These facts clearly indicate that public safety is not a priority for the current city administration. We need a strong Mayor who will not make empty promises he can’t keep. We need a leader who will actually support our police officers and not put them in jeopardy.
Hours later Keller came with a major labor union endorsement:
AFSCME Council 18 is excited to endorse Tim Keller for Mayor. We are thankful to have a mayor that shares our values and is a strong advocate for Albuquerque’s working families. His leadership is exactly what we need during these very difficult times.
Meanwhile, Aragon the only R in the race, continues to struggle with a divided GOP, writing on social media:
Democrats never support Republicans in #NM, but the Republican Party of Bernalillo County chair invited #MannyisaDemocrat to the BCGOP Sunday meeting? Why do we have to convince #Republicans to support Republican candidates?
ACTION PICKS UP
The action will pick up on the campaign trail this week. Tonight at 6 PM the NM Black Voters Collaborative will host a mayoral forum at Highland High School which will be streamed here. Tomorrow night at 6 PM the ABQ Chamber of Commerce forum will be broadcast on KKOB radio and streamed here.
STADIUM DEBATE
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| Trevisani |
Let's start dipping our toes into that controversial $50 million bond proposal to build a new soccer stadium in downtown ABQ that voters will decide November 2.
Insider polling from our sources indicates the stadium faces major opposition but is not dead. "Right now it looks like a coin flip," said one insider who has seen the numbers.
The first paid broadcast media of the city election started over the weekend and is in support of the proposed downtown soccer stadium. We'll gather further info.
The name Peter Trevisani, a co-owner of the NM United soccer team pushing the stadium which will cost upwards of $80 million, has been everywhere. Last week he made headlines when he announced the team will donate $10 million toward construction of the stadium, if the $50 million proposed bond issue is approved.
But who is Trevisani?
Political activist Jason Barker, who opposes the stadium, answers that question in this social media post:
He doesn't need a penny from taxpayers. Trevisani could put the cost of the stadium on his own Amex card if he wanted. Early in his career (1996-1999) he worked at Lehman Brothers in London.
Trevisani founded Waybid, which created liquidity for business-to-business marketplaces, and served as the company's CEO. Waybid was backed by Venture Capital firms Draper Fisher Jurvetson and RRE Ventures.
In 2001 Trevisani became the first director of the institutional group at Thornburg Investment Management. Under his purview the arm grew from $300 million in managed assets in 2001 to $27 billion in 2012.
Trevisani founded Treventures in 2015 with a focus on immersive theatre. Some of his collaborations include AREA15, Third Rail Projects and the Santa Fe art collective Meow Wolf. Treventures is also an investor in Natural Partners Fullscript, KraneShares, CodaWorks, Patrick's Soda, Venezia F.C., Meow Wolf and New Mexico United.
On April 22, 2020, Governor Lujan Grisham named Trevisani to an economic recovery council regarding the reopening of New Mexico businesses amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Peter Trevisani doesn’t need to gamble with the people’s tax dollars for his soccer stadium, he has plenty of his own wealth to use on his soccer team.
New Mexico United's preferred stadium site may be in trouble because part of it would require eminent domain to take from its private owner. . .This is a soccer team created as a ploy for a real estate investment to make a small elite group of people some serious money for a few lifetimes.
The stadium allows for them to employ gentrification for high price condo and retail development around the proposed stadium while pushing out the people who have lived in the area all their lives. Please Vote NO on the Stadium ballot question Nov. 2nd.
We can't vouch for Barker's contention that Trevisani could put the cost of the stadium on his American Express card but he is obviously a man of means. So is his fellow NM United co-owner Ed Garcia of the Garcia automative family. They have purchased tens of millions of dollars in downtown real estate near where the stadium would most likely be built.
Pro-stadium views are also welcome here as we cover both sides.
THE BOTTOM LINES
In a first draft of the Thursday blog we said Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes ran against Rep. Melanie Stansbury in 2020. She ran against then Rep. Deb Haaland.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021