"We can't take anything for granted. Help us win outright Nov. 2," warns the Keller campaign message posted here.
Winning outright of course would mean Keller getting 50 percent of the vote and avoiding a potentially perilous runoff with the second place finisher.
No candidate ever wants to take anything for granted but this mayoral campaign has been a one way street. Veteran political analyst, attorney and former ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne says there are sound reasons to believe the race "is in the bag" for the 43 year old Keller. We asked him what the chances are for a mayoral runoff:
I don't see a chance. The Lobos have a better shot at making it to the Super Bowl than any of Keller's opponents have in forcing a runoff. This election is going to look like a repeat of Mayor Berry's re-election in 2013. That's not to say Keller's re-election should be a slam dunk. But, like 2013, the opposition campaigns don't seem to have a clue of how to knock off an incumbent.
We reported on our Oct. 9, 2013 blog:
Berry garnered 67.91% of the vote to Democrat Pete Dinelli's 28.65%. Republican Paul Heh eked out 3.13%
It's highly unlikely that Keller will repeat that historic victory margin but he did win the 2017 two man mayoral run off with Republican Dan Lewis with 62 percent of the vote. Various polling--from campaigns and interest groups-- show him over or near the 50 percent mark as he floods the airwaves after qualifying for over $600,000 in public financing.
On Tuesday, the Paper released a PPP poll conducted September 23-24 that showed Keller getting 47 percent support:
The poll. . . surveyed 798 likely Albuquerque voters. . Results indicate that Mayor Keller is just shy of winning support from a majority of voters with 47 percent ready to give the mayor another 4 years. Of the other two men on the ballot, neither is earning enough support to be a formidable challenge to Keller. Just 21 percent of voters are ready to install Sheriff Manny Gonzales in city hall. Only 11 percent want Republican Eddy Aragon.
The poll had a margin of error of pros or minus 3.5 percent.
The backdrop of the city's menacing crime gives a glimmer of hope to Gonzales and Aragon that the electorate can somehow be galvanized in these final weeks and turn the race on its head. But it's only a glimmer.
MANNY AND EDDY
Sheriff Gonzales, his campaign denied public financing over ethics violations, was still not on TV as of Monday and he continued to plead for cash to get on the tube:
Keller ran on a promise to hire 1,200 police officers, but there are now less than 400 officers patrolling our streets!
It's why Tim Keller's own first police chief has endorsed my campaign!
Voters have a right to know the truth about this and other issues. But that will require us getting on the air by purchasing television commercials. Won’t you please consider making a generous contribution today?
Eddy Aragon, the lone R in the race, says he does not expect to be on TV in any significant way and is rounding up volunteers for intensive voter outreach via phone.
VOTING EARLY
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| Clerk Stover |
Come Oct. 16 numerous voting locations citywide will open and a flood of voting will begin.
The early voter interest is better than a trickle but Clerk Linda Stover says she is hoping for more. This is the first day she will mail absentee ballots that have been requested by voters and reports she will send out 4,658.
Voter turnout is forecast by consultants we asked to be around 90,000, lower than the 97,000 who voted in the first round of voting in 2017. If so, the absentee ballots going out today represent 5 percent of the total that will be cast.
Stover's office says:
For individuals who haven’t requested an absentee ballot and would like to vote absentee, there are three ways to do it. They can fill out an application on BernCo Votes and submit it online, they can download the application, fill it out mail it in, or can call 505-243-VOTE (8683) to request an application. The last day to request an absentee ballot for the regular local election is Oct. 28.
SANTA FE SCENE
Early voting also begins today in Santa Fe where Mayor Alan Webber is seeking reelection against two opponents--City Councilor JoAnne Vigil Coppler and Alexis Martinez Johnson.
A sense of jitteriness has entered the campaign as it often does at this point, with the opposition preparing to fire their most potent shots at the incumbent. There is no public polling and Vigil Coppler, Webber's main threat, is using that to her advantage and keeping the psychology of an upset in the air.
She has saved almost all of her campaign cash for the final weeks. As in ABQ, the issue is exciting the opposition electorate. She'll need something stronger than cries of "fiscal accountability" to make a go of it, but voters will give her one more listen before this one is closed out.
STADIUM CLASH
That poll shows 59 percent of 793 likely voters opposed a $50 million bond for building a downtown stadium for the NM United Soccer team. Only 30 percent of Dems polled supported the bond. 76 percent of R’s opposed the measure.
Aragon has been an adamant opponent of the stadium which, according to city consultants, could cost upwards of $80 million.
The PPP poll was taken well before an expensive TV and mail campaign was launched in support of the stadium, but the ads--from this corner's viewpoint--don't pack much of a punch. They center on jobs that would be created by stadium construction, hardly a top of mind concern for mostly employed or retired voters who are the vast majority (although NM United's push polling probably concluded differently).
Keller is pushing for the stadium bond that will be decided by voters Nov. 2. But after a burst of initial enthusiasm the mayor has quietly backed away from talking about the proposal. Aragon hopes to engage stadium foes while Keller hopes that soccer fans turn out to vote for the stadium bond as well as him.
Let's give the soccer fans the final kick today. Here's one with an unusual line of reasoning for voting for the stadium
bond. From Joaquin Baca, a board member of the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MGRCD):
Most people don’t realize that MRGCD is largely funded by property taxes from the 5 counties it serves. Of the 5 counties, Bernalillo provides over 60% of that, with downtown being one of the largest contributors. The Hyatt hotel alone has regularly provided more in tax revenue than the county of Socorro.
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| Joaquin Baca |
A few of the reasons the Board provided support include: a commitment to using local supply chains (think green chile from the Middle Rio Grande Valley) as well as new economic activity that will benefit irrigators, the Bosque, recreational users and flood control.
If you support the MRGCD and our efforts to protect New Mexico's water, culture, and keeping the valley green then please support the stadium bond.
THE BOTTOM LINES
The blog headline Monday said parts of ABQ would be placed in the three congressional districts under a sweeping redistricting plan unveiled last week. Actually it would be two districts. Under the proposal the ABQ area 1st CD and the southern 2nd CD would contain parts of the city. The northern congressional district (CD3) would not have ABQ precincts.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021