Keller Foes Getting Around To Crime Crisis; Mail Attack Opens Negative Phase Of Mayoral Campaign, Plus: The Candidates On "Encampments" And Soccer Team Owners Trying To Turn Anti-Stadium Tide.

It's getting late in the game but ABQ's record homicide rate has finally arrived in paid media as foes of front-running ABQ Mayor Tim Keller begin the drive to drive him down in the polls. 

The entire summer went by with BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales mired in controversy over  public campaign financing (he didn't get any) and with Republican Eddy Aragon not emerging until August as an official candidate.

The months squandered will have to be made up with a high-powered, laser-focused attack on the incumbent and even then the best the opponents can expect is to stop him from reaching 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 2 which would force a runoff election with the runner up.  

Veteran political analyst Greg Payne has predicted here that there will be no runoff with Keller topping 50 percent. A consultant who has worked against Keller in the past asserts:

Crime is such an overwhelming issue and penetrating the community so much that I believe the misgivings about his administration are enough to force a runoff election.

The mail hit on Keller posted here come from the Save Our City PAC that is supporting Gonzales and as of early September had $92,000 in cash on hand. 

The PAC attack is money well spent given that the murder spree is Keller's chief weakness, calling into question his leadership of APD and reminding voters of the anguish and trauma that the ceaseless crime crisis has caused. 

Gonzales and Aragon have strived to take Keller down in the mayoral forums without much success. They get another chance this Thursday when the only prime time mayoral debate airs at 7 pm on KOAT-TV.

KELLER LEADS BECAUSE. . . 

This letter from reader Kelley Vigil helps explain why in the face of a crime wave Keller continues to lead:

I've watched all three forums of the candidates with the hope of learning exactly what Keller has done wrong on crime. Aragon and Gonzales have failed to make that case. My take is Gonzales doesn’t have the skill set to run a city and makes things up. He would be in over his head and the Republicans who put him in office would be running the city. Manny would be their little Trojan Horse. 

Aragon is grandiose and scary. “Encampments” for the homeless, really? Aragon, in the NM Black Voters Collaborative was ignorantly offensive to the moderator, calling her by the wrong name and thanking her for a “colorful” debate. 

Both would undo any progress Keller has made the last 4 years in areas other than crime. Keller, although a failure on crime, is still the safer bet for me. He knows the issues and is a manager and executive. Now he needs to figure out in the next four years how to rein in crime. Where he’s failed and what can be done different is a conversation I’d like to see. For now, Keller is the least unpleasant of three choices. 

ENCAMPMENT DEBATE

On encampments for the homeless that Vigil mentioned, Aragon says: 

We can use it as a temporary measure where we establish connection with them, give them 30 days, we can figure out where we can transport them, if we can get them back home. If there’s something that’s broken there, we can figure out something else we can do. 

 Keller says: 

. . . He would want the authorized camps to be small, scattered and controlled to mitigate issues like substance abuse, but that he’s open to the concept if faith-based organizations or other agencies want to try it. 

Gonzales says he is against sanctioned camps for the homeless and would like to see more homeless people arrested for criminal activity.

MISSING THE NET

The pro-soccer stadium crowd is hitting the mailboxes heavy after a late September PPP poll showed 59 percent of ABQ's likely voters are against the proposed $50 million bond issue to get the stadium built (city consultants say it it could cost upwards of $80 million with land and other expenses). 

One of the latest mailers from NM United is posted here as they try to pull off an upset. They have plenty of money for mailers, but not much momentum or excitement. The best reason they can muster for the stadium is a promise of 780 temporary construction jobs. 

NM United has done a fine job of creating enthusiasm for their game on the soccer field but their play on the campaign trail can't find the net. Not that it's an easy target. ABQ voters have weightier items on their plates than building a soccer stadium and placing it near the forlorn downtown.  

It's not only fiscal conservatives opposing the stadium. Many progressives are joining the bandwagon--like Lissa Knudsen who has already voted and writes on Twitter: 

I voted against (the stadium) because I believe public bond money should be used for affordable housing, athletic spaces we can all participate in not just watch, more and better public transportation, and accessible high quality substance use treatment facilities. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021