Manny Finally Hits His Stride In Crime Attack Ad; Wife Of Shot Officer Delivers Powerful Message; Too Little, Too Late? Plus: As Predicted Here Anti-Herrell Congressional Map Advances To Roundhouse

Tryna Verbeck

BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales has finally hit his stride in the ABQ mayoral race. He comes with a powerful TV spot on the crime wave featuring Tryna Verbeck, the wife of APD officer Mario Verbeck who was seriously wounded August 19 responding to a robbery call at a coffee shop in the far NE Heights. Three other officers were also shot at the scene.

Too little, too late or enough to move numbers to Gonzales? 

Any TV ad attacking Mayor Tim Keller over ABQ's crime crisis is bound to be effective but this one has the emotional impact that the crime debate has often lacked. 

The spot is narrated by Verbeck which includes photos and news video of the shooting. There is a startling black and white photo of officer Verbeck on life support as he fights for his life from a bullet wound to the base of the neck. He has since recovered. 

Tryna Verbeck, who publicly lashed out at Keller and Chief Medina shortly after her husband was shot, appears heartfelt if slightly rehearsed during the portion of the narration she appears on camera. She places her hand over her heart when she says: "I trust Manny to be a crime fighting mayor." 

The transcript:

My husband was shot in the line of duty and he barely survived. Mayor Keller is not telling the truth. Crime is up because the Mayor puts criminals first and that's why hundreds of officers have left APD. There were only five officers in my husband's area that day and four of them were shot. We need new leadership. Manny Gonzales knows how to fight crime. He's an honest man and a veteran. I trust Manny to be a crime fighting mayor. 

Former ABQ city councilor, state legislator and attorney Greg Payne has been helping us analyze the political ads this season: 

It's a good ad--and one the Gonzales campaign should have been running weeks ago. Great emotional appeal and humanizes the crime issue. The real questions are: how much is the ad buy and what took them so long? 

As I've said previously, the biggest issues for Manny are a) until recently, his campaign message has been defined by the public financing debacle (going after Eddy Aragon with an ethics complaint only resurrected that screw-up) and b) Aragon running a campaign that's strong enough to siphon off GOP votes that might have otherwise gone to Manny. 

Payne added that he still sees Gonzales finishing second and beating Aragon, the lone Republican candidate in the race but believes Keller remains positioned for a 50 percent win Nov. 2 that would have him avoid a runoff election December 7. 

A Democratic consultant who remained anonymous said of Gonzales' first venture into negative campaigning: 

That’s a very good ad. If it had a decent 4 week buy it might move numbers. If they also had a good ad telling people who Manny is and why he’s not a crook that might help too. 

FACT CHECK

Here's a deeper dive into the ad with this fact check: 

"Mayor Keller is not telling the truth. Crime is up because the Mayor puts criminals first."

Violent crime is up--way up--but other categories such as auto theft and property crime have experienced drops but we are still in the top ten rankings in the nation in those categories. Whether Keller "puts criminals first" is an emotional and subjective statement, not a fact. 

"That's why hundreds of officers have left APD. 

APD has experienced poor morale and in exit interviews many departing officers have cited that as a factor in their leaving but not specifically because "Keller puts criminals first." Some said they do not feel supported by the 11th Floor. The DOJ consent decree monitoring police conduct is another primary reason for departures, says Chief Medina. Medina also says a change that positively impacted the retirement pay of officers has been a leading cause of APD departures.

There were only five officers in my husband's area that day and four of them were shot. 

That's true and illustrates the depth of the shortage at APD. 

"Manny Gonzales knows how to fight crime." 

Well, the Sheriff has had his own problems thwarting crime that occurs in the county areas where he is solely responsible. Updated stats show that in 2020 there was an increase in crime in the unincorporated areas of the county.

He is a honest man. 

Keller's camp is asking voters to find Gonzales dishonest and use as evidence the forgeries of signatures by the Sheriff's campaign in order to qualify for over $600,000 in public financing. Gonzales' multiple legal appeals of his loss of the public money by the city clerk because of the fraud were repeatedly denied. Gonzales blames the forgeries on staff and said they were relieved of their duties. If that is believed, his reputation as honest stays intact. If voters believe he knew of the forgeries then he is not the honest man the ad claims. 

REDISTRICTING IN THE DARK

The Alligators told you so. Yes, the slithery sources have an enviable record for getting it right and when they saw that proposed redistricting map of the state's three congressional districts that sent a big chunk of ABQ into the southern district they predicted that it would be similar to the final plan adopted by the legislature when it does redistricting in early December. 

Now the news comes that the map is one of three congressional maps that the NM Citizens Redistricting Committee has sent to lawmakers for consideration. The plan would effectively unseat Republican US Rep. Yvette Herrell and replace her with a Democrat. (Not definitely but darn close.)

The map is the brainchild of various progressive interest groups many of which are funded with "dark money," complain state House Republicans who are trying to stop the anti-Herrell map.

One of those groups is NM's Center for Civic Policy, a 501 (c)(3). The latest required IRS filing for the group is for tax year 2018 and shows it had income of about $3 million and 10 employees.

Proposed map

The R's (and others) would like to know exactly who is giving the group money but that's where things get dark, according to IRS rules:

As a 501(c)(3) public charity, it has to disclose the names of significant donors to the IRS on Schedule B, but those names are confidential and need not be disclosed to the public. 

The group and their funding is not a new issue. Way back in 2008 your blog covered their involvement in state legislative races when dark money spending first got underway in earnest in an effort to oust several GOP legislators. 

In the political money game it's the Super PACs and interest groups on both sides--like Center for Civic Policy--that bring the big money to the table and and often the big decisions as seen in that congressional redistricting map. While educated guesses can be made about who is writing the checks, the public remains mostly in the dark when it comes to dark dollars. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021