One of the chief reasons Mayor Tim Keller is polling at 53 percent and Sheriff Manny Gonzales scores an anemic 20 percent is that Gonzales' campaign has been a turkey. However, there is a clear "what might have been" in the ABQ Journal survey conducted Oct.15-21 and released Sunday.
It showed Keller's job approval right at 50 percent. A strong opposition campaign might have been able to consolidate the anti-Keller vote. Instead Gonzales gave the city court battles over campaign financing and absurd personal attacks on the incumbent. Keller ran a smooth, professional operation as Manny became the gift that kept on giving.
Gonzales' polling performance is so weak that the lone Republican in the race, conservative firebrand Eddy Aragon who had 13 percent support in the poll, thinks he has a chance to finish second. Maybe.
The dismal numbers could discourage votes for conservative D Gonzales among reliable Republican voters. They could be persuaded to give up on him and provide Aragon the surge he's hoping for.
Albuquerque's problems are towering, especially when it comes to public safety, homelessness and drugs. But the campaign for mayor has been like a gnat scratching an elephant's hide. For most voters it simply hasn't registered and the easy decision is to stick with the known quantity.
OUR TAKEAWAYS
---Former GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis has to be nervous over the collapse of Gonzales. He was hoping the Sheriff's conservative appeal would help him in his challenge to Dem westside Councilor Cynthia Borrego. But that is not to be.
---And business oriented westside Democrat Louie Sanchez has to be feeling like Lewis. A strong Gonzales showing in his Hispanic dominated district could have helped him. Instead, it is appointed Dem City Councilor Lan Sena perhaps getting a boost from Keller's robust polling.
---The ABQ poll is good news for Santa Fe Mayor Alan Webber because it shows the ABQ Dem progressive base holding firm for Keller. A crack here could mean a crack there. But the Santa Fe mayoral race has been similar to the Duke City battle. Both feature progressive Dems with weak challengers who waged inchoate campaigns.
STADIUM SINKING
No surprise here. According to the Journal poll that $50 million bond to build a downtown soccer stadium is going to get kicked hard by voters:
Only 37% of Albuquerque voters say they support the city’s proposed $50 million bond to help build a multiuse soccer stadium, according to a new Journal Poll.
That compares with 55% who oppose the plan – most of whom describe their disapproval as strong.
Only a fraction (3%) say that it depends or that they are undecided (4%).
This after the NM United soccer team pumped nearly $900,000 into a campaign blitz to win stadium support. To United co-owner Peter Trevisani: Welcome to La Politica, Peter. Or something…
RONCHETTI'S ROCKY START
 |
The Republican meteorologist was busted by ProgressNowNM last Thursday night when they spotted his website suddenly touting "Ronchetti for Governor."
Fearful of an FCC violation KRQE-TV immediately pulled Ronchetti off the air, and announced his resignation on the 10 PM news. Ronchetti says he will announce his Guv decision in the coming days
Who on the Ronchetti team let that website go live and give the Dems a golden opportunity to force his hand? The Dem Guv Association had already been breathing legal fire at KRQE-TV and corporate owner Nexstar over Ronchetti appearing on the air while behind the scenes they said he was soliciting financial and political support for a possible Guv run. Now the web blunder.
KRQE manager Bill Anderson airily dismissed the complaint from the DGA but his decision to continue to let Ronchetti play political tease on the airwaves put the station in danger. And it's not the first time.
Ronchetti prompted Anderson to make an ethically dubious decision when he promised Ronchetti he could return to this TV job if he lost the '20 US Senate race which he did. That was tantamount to an in-kind campaign contribution and raised the question of whether Nexstar and KRQE were in the TV business or candidate recruiting. Now a question for Anderson is whether he has again promised to take Ronchetti back if he runs for Governor and loses.
The chief attack on Ronchetti by the other GOP candidates and the Dems will be over his lack of experience in administering anything. His first baby steps into the Guv race only reinforced that notion.
Ronchetti can take some solace that MLG's June campaign kick-off was also weak as she delivered a rambling speech and chastised protestors who showed up at the event as "lizard people."
But MLG can afford a mistake or two. She already has $2.5 million in cash in her campaign account and the power of the incumbency. Ronchetti has neither.
A CAMPAIGN "WHODUNIT"
 |
| James Hallinan |
McCleskey hits hard but his attacks are more measured. This personal hits on Keller with no evidence to back it up is more the style of James Hallinan who is the consultant for the outside PAC--Save Our City. He's not bothered by collateral damage that results from the kind of attacks Gonzlaes employed.
The Sheriff, without any evidence, accused Keller of having an affair with a subordinate and being involved in a domestic violence incident with his wife.
Hallinan is best known for "Crotchgate" in which MLG's campaign paid him $150,000 to settle sex harassment charges against her while Hallinan was on her campaign staff. He has consulted a variety of Dem candidates including Attorney General Balderas and Auditor Brian Colón.
Hallinan engineering the Gonzales debate attack would have been a violation of campaign regulations that prohibit outside PACS from communicating with the individual campaigns they are supporting.
Hallinan has repeatedly said that he has not been communicating in any way with the Gonzales campaign but Republican mayoral hopeful Eddy Aragon tried to pin just such an ethics violation on Gonzales and Hallinan during the TV showdown.
Aragon asked Gonzales why his campaign was bringing an ethics complaint against him over his continued presence on his radio talk show and alleging he is violating FCC rules. But that complaint was actually filed by the Save the City PAC--not the Gonzales campaign. Aragon worked around that as he cornered his rival into an error. The transcript:
Aragon: He has now put me in front of the ethics board. . .Please explain. . . why you decided to put me in front of the ethics board?
Gonzales: I have not put you in front of the ethics board. That was the doing of my political consultant. I am not aware of what you are talking about.
Aragon: You just admitted that you are colluding and using your political consultant and you just admitted that (the outside PAC supporting you) is working directly with your own campaign and you have just committed fraud, Sheriff Gonzales.
Gonzales: That's not what I said. My political consultant brought those things. I have no idea what you are talking about.
 |
| Jay McCleskey |
But by calling Hallinan "my consultant" he gave Aragon the opening for the ethics charge and to sow confusion over whether the Gonzales' campaign was indeed colluding with the Hallinan run PAC.
So "whodunit?" Well, the odds that it was the politically naive Gonzales are nearly nonexistent. Ditto for his newcomer campaign manager from California. The attack was carefully read, not ad libbed. KOB-TV says Gonzales even violated the debate rules by reading printed material before the cameras.
The "whodunit" remains a "whodunit" but the negative impact it has had on the Sheriff's campaign is no mystery.
NO MOE?
As soon as speculation surfaced here that ABQ Dem westside Rep. Moe Maestas could be a credible replacement for retiring Dem westside state Senator Jacob Candelaria, the progressive wing of the Dem party struck back with comments like this:
This guy should just retire.
You honestly think a progressive will not challenge him? Moe was the water carrier for Gov. Susana Martinez. The Maestas tax cuts were the largest tax cuts for the rich in state history.
Maestas was a key player in securing passage of the Martinez 2013 corporate tax cuts.
This is the home of New Mexico politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021