All ABQ Council Runoff Candidates Reject Public Financing; Updating The Races And What They Could Mean To ABQ's Future

The state continues to enjoy the fall colors before making way for winter. Here's a recent snap of the foliage at ABQ's Tingley beach from photographer Richard Lind shooting for the Downtown ABQ News. Nice stuff. 

Now let's get to the action. 

Public financing of ABQ elections is full of shortcomings and we're again seeing that as candidates in two city council runoffs reject the meager amount offered in taxpayer dollars (about $14,000 each) and opt to run privately financed efforts for the December 7 election. 

In District 9 in the far NE Heights Dem Rob Grilley's campaign says Renee Grout, his GOP opponent, announced before he did that she would go to private financing:

We saw in the 2019 council runoff election the NM GOP come to Brooke Bassan’s aide and funded her campaign. Rob Grilley's campaign couldn't unilaterally disarm. It’s important for voters to see the contrast and it would be difficult if the GOP money machine is planning to raise 5 times more money than what was afforded by public financing. We need to fight fire with fire. Rob Grilley is open to reforming the public financing system in the future to give equal footing to runoff candidates. 

For her part, Grout says:

In order to financially compete in the runoff against my opponent and the leftwing PACS. . . I have opted to pursue public financing. That means I must raise contributions up to $1,499 per person/per business.

In District 7 in the NE Heights Dem Tammy Fiebelkorn is going private as is Republican Lori Lee Robertson. 

How much will the candidates raise combined with any outside PACS that chime in? Well, Bassan's council campaign two years ago broke $80,000. PACS for local R's spent heavy in the Nov. 2 council election. They can expected to be back as can Dem groups.

As for the politics, Fiebelkorn, who owns an environmental and business consulting firm, is a heavy favorite in the District 7 race. Progressive Dem Councilor Diane Gibson is giving up the seat. Robertson is a commercial real estate broker. The district breaks down 50 percent Dems and 26 percent R's, giving Fiebelkorn a clear playing field. Still, she will have to hustle as the R's are mounting a serious challenge. 

MORE COMPLICATED

Grilley and Grout

In District 9 it's more complicated. The area has traditionally been conservative but has been changing rapidly. Longtime GOP Councilor Don Harris is giving up the seat. Dem Grilley, 37, is a relative newcomer to the area arriving in 2014 and is president of the gay rights group Common Bond. So his candidacy is a leap for the district which is 41 percent Dem and 32 percent R. 

Grout has been in the district as a small business owner for decades and is a traditional Republican. But outgoing Councilor Harris has told friends he is glad he is not running because the dramatic economic change in the area has made it less GOP friendly 

Grout scored a solid 43 percent in the November 2 balloting. Dem progressive Byron Powdrell, an African American, almost upset Grilley for second place, getting 28 percent to Grilley's 29. With the independents up for grabs, there is a path to victory for Grout. 

Grilley's middle of the road approach didn't sell well enough in round 1 against Powdrell. Now he has to thread the needle and get the Powdrell progressives as well as keep conservative leaning independents satisfied. If the R brand has declined enough in popularity that shouldn't be too difficult. If not, the race could be interesting. 

THE OUTLOOK

District 7 is likely Dem. District 9 leans Dem.  

Turnout will go down from the Nov. 2 balloting but it won't crash as both sides spend heavy. This pic of Mayor Kelker already campaigning in District 7 sets the stage for the next three weeks.

Only if both districts go Republican would the current Dem majority on the nine member council be flipped to the R's by 5 to 4. 

That would not be good news for Dem Mayor Keller, but what's more worrisome for him is that incoming Dem Councilor Louie Sanchez has a decided Republican lean and could at times vote with the R's. That would give them a 6 to 3 margin and enough to override any Keller vetoes.

On the other hand, if Grilley and Fiebelkorn win the council stays 6 to 3 Democratic, giving Keller a status quo council.

It's notable that much of Keller's program for the city--a tax hike for public safety, funding for the Gateway Homeless Shelter and establishment of a Community Safety Department--are already in place. That won't change no matter which party dominates the council. 

The major change if Republican strength grew on the council? That could be disputes over the administration and direction of the ABQ police department.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021