The big early vote should come in not long after the polls close at 7 p.m. Because that vote will represent the great majority of ballots, many races should be settled right off the bat.
Today is the actual Election Day and voters can find info on that here.
We've got a top-notch panel to help us count the votes including State Rep. Moe Maestas, former State Senator Dede Feldman, ABQ City Councilor Brook Bassan and attorney David Buchholtz. So be sure to tune in for all the action and a recap on your Wednesday blog.
The early vote in the '21 ABQ election hit 77,352 as of Monday afternoon, according to the BernCo clerk. That's well on the way to matching and likely surpassing expert predictions of a 95,000 total turnout. That is also good news for the Democrats in an election that is officially nonpartisan but never acts that way. The higher the voter the better for the majority party.
In that early tally 55 percent of the votes cast were by Dems, higher than their 47 percent of registered voters. R's were at 31 percent, matching their registration total for the city. There are about 383,000 registered voters in ABQ, the BernCo clerk's office reports.
The energy in the campaign has been with the Dems as Mayor Keller has dominated the campaign and the polls and his challengers have not caught fire.
There are also four contested school board seats on the city ballot for the first time. Those usually attract a large turnout among teachers who lean Democrat.
And the proposed $50 million bond to build a downtown soccer stadium has also energized many voters. The polls say the D's are split on the proposal while the R's and Indys oppose.
The GOP could get a voter pop today as many in their party have become distrustful of the election process and cast ballots on the actual election day rather than early voting.
About 97,000 ballots were cast in the 2017 city runoff election when Tim Keller defeated Republican Dan Lewis in that year's mayoral contest. We'll look to jump that mark tonight.
RUNOFFS EXPECTED
Election pros say three city council runoff elections could be in store after the votes are counted tonight. They say based on early turnout stats it will be difficult for any candidate in those districts to reach the required 50 percent of the vote to take a first round win.
The districts are: District 7 where six candidates are vying to replacing outgoing Dem Councilor Diane Gibson; District 9 where three candidates are competing to replace retiring GOP Councilor Don Harris and District 5 on the westside where Dem Councilor Cynthia Borrego faces former GOP Councilor Dan Lewis and newcomer Phil Ramirez.
The pros still expect Mayor Keller to get over 50 percent and avoid a runoff. Any council runoff elections will be held December 7.
WHERE THEY'LL BE
Mayor Keller will have his Election Night party at Hotel ABQ near Old Town. Candidate Eddy Aragon says he will be at his "home" tonight, meaning his radio station near the ABQ Sunport where he lives. We haven't received word yet on where BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales will be at Admiral Beverage at 3980 Prince St. SE.
DATELINE GLASGOW
Progressives are clamoring for a strong message while the state's giant fossil fuel industry is arguing for understanding.
The progressives have impact with their large important block of Dem activist voters. The oil companies, allied more with the Republicans, get the Guv's ear with substantial campaign contributions.
In checking MLG's most recent campaign finance report we spotted contributions from Occidental Petroleum of $10,000; Marathon Oil, $10,000; Exxon with $7,500 and Chevron donating at least $10,000.
Both sides are getting something from the Fourth Floor:
Amid surging oil output, Lujan Grisham has pushed to rein in leaks and emissions of excess natural gas by the industry and signed legislation that mandates and incentivizes New Mexico’s own transition to zero-emissions electricity by 2045. . . In March, Lujan Grisham wrote President Biden, asking to exempt New Mexico from an executive order halting gas and oil production on federal land. Oil field royalties, taxes and lease sales account for more than one-quarter of the state's general fund budget, underwriting spending on public schools, roads and public safety.
The immense boom in the Permian Basin in SE NM promises to get larger in the years ahead as less productive oil fields are retired and the cost-efficient Permian continues to pump. That means an even larger portion of state government revenue could come from big oil and the political classes--both D and R--will continue to collect their campaign donations.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021