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Monday, November 08, 2021

Public Sentiment Appears To Shift; MLG And Company Face Flexibility Test On Mandatory Masks As Vaccinated Break Away; Only Five Other States As Rigid As NM, Plus: MLG And Keller Advised On Midterms

Public sentiment in the state appears to have shifted from fighting Covid to working out an accomadation and getting back to normal life. 

The shift could make it increasingly difficult for Governor Lujan Grisham to mandate indoor mask wearing by both the vaccinated and unvaccinated without suffering consequences. 

As this map shows the state is already an island unto itself when it comes to masks. Only six states, including ours, now have mask mandates for the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Unless renewed, the current mask mandate expires Friday.

Even with the mandate, New Mexico infections have climbed in recent weeks. However, with over 70 percent of state residents at least partially vaccinated it is the unvaccinated who are bearing the brunt of the Covid burden, facing serious illness and sometimes death while the vaccinated generally face only mild consequences if they get a breakthrough infection. That is key to understanding the apparent political shift underway. 

The changing circumstances are evident even in liberal Santa Fe:

. . . Dr. Wendy Johnson, chief medical officer at La Familia Medical Center, expressed disappointment in the lack of vigilance she sees. “We’re not following the guidelines anymore,” Johnson said. . .Even with a comparatively high vaccination rate of 83 percent in Santa Fe County, that leaves 20,000 or more unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated, Johnson said. People gather now at birthday parties, theaters and other entertainment spots, she said, letting down their guard at a time when the disease’s intensity is picking up. “Our restaurants are packed,” she said. Statistics, anecdotal evidence and expert observation indicate the situation has worsened in New Mexico. 

But blaming a restless public that has had its vaccinations may not cut the political mustard. It is the unvaccinated upon which the burden rests. 

MLG and company won kudos for their initial performance in dealing with Covid but like the virus itself the political (and medical) landscape has morphed. The question is can she adapt and pivot to more flexible policies? With rising cases a policy revision now could look like a cave-in, but with no revision it is her popularity that could cave.

DIRECTION ADVICE

MLG & Keller
MLG and ABQ Mayor Tim Keller are getting an earful following last Tuesday's Republican gains around the nation and some here. One of our Senior Alligators comes with a combined analysis/rant as he looks to the 2022 midterm election:

Michelle has to find a re-election message that stays away from culture wars, masks and COVID. We may not have a critical race theory debate going on in our school boards, but after last Tuesday the state GOP won’t try to create one? 

MLG has to make-up with the Legislature and start deploying federal recovery funds for bread and butter investments in health care, education and infrastructure. Democrats are sitting on $1 billion  in funds that could jumpstart NM. Stop pumping the brakes on our recovery. 

Keller may have won a mandate but he faces a city council that may no longer be a bunch of pushovers. Republican Councilors Dan Lewis and Brook Bassan will feel empowered to criticize the Mayor and second guess how he runs the city. Dan Lewis will want to avenge his 2017 mayoral loss to Keller and take a chunk out of him. Second terms are no fun and the Mayor has to shift his approach. 

Democrats must approach the midterms as the governing, responsible party not as the renegade, progressive, force issues down-your-throat party. You have to be for something that voters can latch on to, not just anti-Trump. 

Jessica Velasquez, the Dem Party chair, has to shift her operation from an expert Facebook photo production company to a badass election operation. 

This is the home of New Mexico politics. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021