Do the new NM congressional maps favor the Dems? Or do they open the door to a GOP takeover in the northern District and give then a solid chance of keeping southern District 2? The answer? It probably depends on how the national political winds blow in the years ahead.
In the north, Dems say the sour grapes over the new map coming from Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez
is borne out of her fear of being a potentially weak candidate against a strong Republican--not from the map itself. She is a newcomer to elective office, having run and won her first election only two years ago.
TLF supporters argue meshing a swath of oil country with acequia and Indian Country is a hare-brained scheme that exposes her to the danger of big conservative oil money.
TLF has now made her first public comment on the new district:
New Mexicans in the new parts of [the district] are hungry to have representation that delivers healthcare, infrastructure, and lowers costs for working families — that’s what I have done, and what I will continue to do.
What does she really think? Well, her brother, Martin, a Dem heavy in San Miguel County, testified against the new district at the legislative redistricting special session.
Here are the takeaways of the other two US House members on their new districts, starting with Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury of the 1st District in the ABQ metro and beyond:
I am excited about the opportunity to serve even more communities. I am running for reelection to continue to grow our economy and jobs, and to address the health and well-being of our people. I look forward to spending time in our new district and amazing communities.
And from southern NM GOP Congresswoman Yvette Herrell in District 2:
The gerrymandered map New Mexico Democrats have proposed shows how desperate they are to try to save Nancy Pelosi’s majority. I look forward to running and winning in 2022 and providing New Mexico voters the conservative representation they deserve.
ANALYSIS, PLEASE
The ABC news site FiveThirtyEight has been quoted as a bible of sorts when it says the new maps make the TLF and Herrell districts "highly competitive" for the R's, but the Republican Party doesn't agree and other redistricting sites are rather sanguine about the Dems and their standing with the new congressional maps.
Daily Kos has perhaps the most cogent analysis, or at least the one we tend to favor:
The new map is a gerrymander that aims to allow Democrats to sweep all three districts and oust hardline conservative GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in the 2nd District by turning it from strongly Republican into a light-blue swing district that Joe Biden won by 52-46 last year. . . However, since New Mexico itself isn't overwhelmingly blue, Democrats settled for giving themselves substantial but not wave-proof advantages in the other two districts in order to make the 2nd winnable, and it's possible that one or more districts could still elect Republicans in a strongly GOP-favoring year.
"Wave-proof" is the key word and that is not what is shaping up nationally. The GOP says they are riding the wave into 2022. Against that backdrop "538" is right to call districts one and three "highly competitive" but not in years when there is no wave election.
HISPANIC FACTOR
Perhaps the most salient point in this is the past voting behavior of NM Hispanics as a strong Dem voting bloc. That behavior has been easing in recent cycles and is a red flag for the dominant progressive wing. Many Hispanics no longer fear voting R and many don't care for the Biden presidency.
Their top lines issues are not climate change, methane leaks or national forests, their issues are of the bread and butter variety--jobs, wages, health and child care; public education and the ravages of crime and drugs.
The more Democrats stray into the progressive weeds--often ushered there by wealthy out of state backers--the more they risk alienating a traditionally important demographic that could indeed present a challenge for them in the northern and southern districts. Don't say we didn't tell you.
TAPPING THE FUND
That proposal to tap the $25 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education is expected to win approval at next November's election but first Congress must okay the proposed changes to the fund. NM's senior senator, Martin Heinrich, says he expects no problem winning such approval and has introduced legislation to that end. Fellow NM Dems, Sen. Lujan and Reps Stansbury and Leger Fernandez, are also working on the legislation. Rep. Herrell has not signed up.
PNM CONFUSION?
Reader Paul Stokes writes:
Your reader, Stan Fitch, is a little bit confused about progressives pushing the PNM/Avangrid merger. The progressives I know opposed the merger. Sure, there were some progressives who supported it, presumably on the grounds that it would advance renewable energy. From what he says, he seems to have some other beef about progressives.
ON THE WARPATH
The hit and run killing of a 7 year old boy in the crosswalks neat ABQ's popular River of Lights holiday exhibit has former APD Sergeant and anti-crime advocate Dan Klein on the warpath:
Where is Mayor Keller? A seven year old boy is dead, killed while he legally crossed Central Ave with his parents after visiting the River of Lights. This is probably the second largest attraction (after the Balloon Fiesta) that Albuquerque puts on every year. It is nationally recognized. Why have Mayor Keller and APD Chief Medina not appeared publicly to speak about this tragedy? Where are the members of the city council? Why haven’t they made any public appearance regarding the death of this child and demanded that APD find resources to assign officers outside the River of Lights? If our public officials can’t get outraged about a 7-year-old child being killed, what does that say about our city?
LA FAMILIA IN BERNALILLO
Mayor Jack Torres has announced his candidacy for a fourth term. Torres, a Bernalillo native, unseated incumbent Mayor Patricia Chavez in 2010 and was reelected in 2014 and 2018 without opposition. He is a graduate of Harvard University and has a family heritage of public service with his father, an uncle, and a cousin serving as mayor at various times since 1958. Whether Torres draws opposition in the March 1 election won’t be known until candidate filing day on January 4.
Now that's what you call keeping it All in the Family.
THE BOTTOM LINES
Robert McCallum writes:
My bad Joe. Your reporting as usual was right on. Your pieces on the PNM/AVANGRID merger were great. Great energy and great writing.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021