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Monday, January 10, 2022

Newfound State Wealth Produces Only Modest Budget Plans From Guv And LFC; Confounded By The Cash? Plus: 2022 Budget Politics

"New Mexico has the opportunity for generational change with the amount of money we have." 

So declared state Senate Finance Committee Chair George Munoz upon presentation of the Legislative Finance Committee's (LFC) $8.46 billion budget recommendation for fiscal year '23 that starts July 1. 

The premise is correct but the standout recommendation in both the LFC budget and the Guv's is a 7 percent pay hike for teachers and state employees. That will be greeted warmly by a public that wants to support educators and that will grudgingly admit that the state's bureaucrats deserve a pay bump after suffering stagnant wages for years. But where's the "generational" change to put New Mexico on a path to getting out of the nation's ratings cellar? That's proving to be an elusive target--if it's being targeted at all. 

Both budgets bolster currently funded programs and the LFC does mention the landmark Yazzie court ruling that demands the state correct the educational inequities for at risk public school students (mainly Native American and Hispanics) and recommends $180 million to specifically address the court order. 

But there's not much budget time devoted to the ongoing (and growing) behavioral health crisis in the state, a state with one of the highest rates of drug addiction in the nation, record crime rates in ABQ, stunted student learning growth due to Covid school lockouts and a myriad of other social ills all to familiar and that often seem so stubborn and insurmountable. 

As intractable as the challenges seem, without resolution you are left with a state with gold overflowing from its vaults while daily living decays for far too many. 

Beyond our long-held acceptance of the status quo, perhaps the problem is the pandemic that has everyone looking more inward. Getting by day to day and month to month is a much more urgent matter than pondering a macro vision for a statewide socio-economic revival.

When faced with a daily death count, logistical challenges for once simple chores and ongoing economic uncertainty, a state's child well-being rating or poverty percentage can seem even more abstract to the average voter. The political leadership responds in kind.

New Mexico, as Senator Munoz might say, is now in possession of potentially life changing money. Neither the Governor, the LFC or the public has figured out precisely what that means. Like the problems we confront, the vastness of the newfound wealth is proving to be confounding. Unwinding and fully understanding the complexity of choices will take much longer than any 30 day legislative session. 

The LFC budget is here. The Governor's budget is here

BUDGET POLITICS '22 

That there were no sweeping programs proposed in MLG's election year budget is no surprise but if her popularity were higher among independents she may have had more room to maneuver. 

A PPP poll conducted last August had only 33 percent of independents approving of her job performance and 54 percent disapproving. R's say more recent polling continues to show her under water with the indys who often lean moderate to conservative. Combined with overwhelming GOP opposition, that puts her in a possibly fragile area right around 50 percent.

That is not the kind of political picture that allows a Governor to swing for the fences. Not that MLG is necessarily upset about that. Remember, she described herself as a "fiscal conservative" when campaigning n 2018 and in many ways has lived up to that self-reported analysis.

The Guv's handling of Covid would appear largely responsible for her dive with independents. Perhaps an autocratic style laced with a whiff of hypocrisy (Lilly Barrack jewelry) and perceived Draconian measures turned them off. 

And Covid cooped her up in Santa Fe for months on end not mending fences or making new friends on the hustings for well over a year. 

As for the LFC, they are institutionally skeptical of any new programs. In fact, their lean most recently has been to favor what they say are programs that have proven themselves through "evidence based" testing.
That doesn't leave much room for innovation.

NORTHERN BEAT

Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández as well as Sen. Ben Ray Lujan issued a statement expressing misgivings about House Speaker Egolf's decision to abolish the committee that deals in land grants. Like Lujan, she also says talks with Egolf over the matter have been fruitful. 

On the political front the freshman Democrat is reporting that in the last quarter of 2021 she raised $402,658.77 and had $524,000 in cash on hand. That's up from $250K in cash in the previous report. 

The changed boundaries of the northern district is drawing increased attention to TLF's re-election bid.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022