Mayor Keller

He's not expected to be very popular this far into his second term and Mayor Tim Keller isn't. But his opponents took a drubbing at last week's City Council meeting where Keller walked away with two major victories, signaling that it is way too early to be writing his political obit.  

Keller spent his political capital wisely at perhaps the most watched Council meeting in years and as a job approval rating of 33 percent from last October hovered over his head. 

He ushered in major housing reform as the Council on a 5 to 4 vote approved his controversial plan to allow more single family homeowners to build casitas on their lots as another solution to the stubborn housing crunch. 

And while careful not to stick his neck out too publicly, he ably applied his political skills to convince the Council to nix a plan making the office of Mayor essentially a ceremonial post, replaced by a council and city manager. That plan died on a 6 to 3 vote. 

The Mayor took a victory lap: 

After those votes the political class chimed in with the old sayings that "you can't beat someone with no one" and that Keller is "blessed by a weak opposition." 

Both are true and the inability of Dem Councilor Louie Sanchez and Republicans Renee Grout and Dan Lewis to take down Keller on a rare occasion when the public was paying attention reinforced them. 

Still, Keller now has valuable and considerable experience and councilors who may in the past been able to get the better of him seem out of his weight class. 

Lewis is an old hand at Keller getting the best of him. He lost the 2017 mayoral runoff in a 62 to 38 percent landslide. He appears to want another go at it in 2025 but the implosion of the Council opposition may give him second thoughts--or should. 

One thing the opposition has plenty of is time--time to find a credible opponent. But the other names circulating besides Lewis are lackluster and it would take a well-known and well-financed moderate to end his tenure on the 11th Floor of Government Center.

A competent moderate could also use some help from the left. If a prominent progressive Dem also challenged Keller it could change the math. But after last week's debacle Keller's foes are in no mood to game out the future. Instead they look forward to a long summer vacation where Keller's name does not cross anyone's lips.

If Keller has any regrets about last week's action it's probably that it did not occur a year before the election--rather than two and a half years. He still has those Council opponents to wrestle with and it could get more complicated. 

That complication seems to depend on what happens at the November election for four City Council seats, including District 8 where longtime GOP Councilor Trudy Jones is retiring. 

Jones has been a key crossover vote for Keller, doing just that last week on that narrow 5 to 4 casita vote. But her seat could go to retired APD officer and mortgage lender Dan Champine--if the district remains true to its Republican form and does not opt for Democrat Idalia Lechuga-Tena.

If that happens would Champine be a sometimes crossover vote for Keller like fellow Republican Jones? If not that would mean Keller, who has avoided having his vetoes being overridden several times on 5 to 4 votes, could see that switch to 6 to 3, the margin required to override a veto. 

The votes could be the aforementioned Councilors Lewis, Sanchez and Grout, who are not up for re-election, joined by Champine and GOP Councilor Brook Bassan. The sixth vote would be moderate Dem Klarissa Pena who has quite often showed her independence from the 11th Floor. 

A wild card is District 6. Dem Councilor Pat Davis is leaving and the field to succeed him is unsettled. If the new councilor elected there had Keller misgivings, it could be a rough ride indeed.

Keller watchers point out that the ABQ Journal poll from late October of last year gave him a dreary 33 percent job approval rating but they add the poll was somewhat unusual. Twenty one percent responded that they had "mixed feelings" when asked to rate Keller's performance which could mean Keller still has a path to get to 50 percent in a two way race. That's why the current trend of a weak and inchoate opposition is so important to him if he is to win an unprecedented third consecutive mayoral term. 

Many anti-Keller voters are flummoxed that Keller is still standing because the city crime crisis is not abating much and is well on its way to becoming the new normal. The murder rate is headed for triple digits for the third year in a row and overall crime remains seemingly omnipresent. 

But normal means expected and we could see a rewiring of expectations. 

Keller can't dismiss the ABQ crime wave as something that is "happening everywhere" but the episodes of gun violence in the nation's cities can't be ignored in a political context. Severe crime in ABQ is not an outlier. Shootings, organized shoplifting and a fentanyl epidemic fueling the fire are commonplace in the US. The more it stays that way the more the "it's everywhere" argument may make sense to voters.

On that other intransigent issue--homelessness--Keller opponents have other reasons to fret besides that freshly approved casita plan. Keller's plan to convert motel rooms to house low income residents and the long-awaited opening of the Gateway Center to serve the homeless and addicted are next up. They are also proving popular with the public even as the opposition grind their teeth at their mere mention. 

In addition, there has been a shift in the approach to resolving the negative impact of homelessness on the city--a Keller vulnerability (he took major hits over his proposed sanctioned homeless camp proposal). He closed Coronado Park that had become a large homeless camp and a plague on the surrounding neighborhood and he is pushing forward with his plan to reduce panhandling on the city's street medians.

Also helping Keller is the tidal wave of homelessness on the West Coast. The photos and video are staggering while ABQ's problem still seems within reach of solutions. 

The reasons that Keller could not make it to a third term are simple--if crime is perceived as way too high and his housing program does little to reduce homelessness. But assessing the breaking point of voters on those matters is more nuanced. That's why Keller still breathes deeply the air of La Politica.