It's anticipated that the Republicans will come with a warm body to challenge Democratic US Senator Martin Heinrich as he seeks a third six year term in '24. But the odds of a major challenge continue to recede as Heinrich reports he raised $1.5 million in the second quarter and now has cash on hand of $2.8 million.
OpenSecrets reports Heinrich's campaign committee raised $8.552 million for his last election in 2018 and spent $7.959 million.
New Mexico's blue state status is keeping Republicans off the field but there is grumbling in the GOP that Heinrich does not deserve "a pass" and the GOP needs to step up. Inside Elections in DC ranks the Heinrich seat "solid Democratic" and that's not helping the recruitment effort.
In 2018 when he faced Republican Mick Rich and independent Gary Johnson Heinrich won with 54.1 percent, right on the mark for Dem performance in a statewide race.
The backbreaker for the R's was Bernalillo County where Heinrich, 51, won by 40,000 votes in the three way race. His statewide victory margin was 57,000. That's a big BernCo math problem for even a strong R thus there is no national targeting of the contest.
Heinrich is now toying with a Governor run in '26, which would be unprecedented. Any money he has leftover from the '24 race could be used to fund his gubernatorial ambitions. That was established when Republican US Rep. Steve Pearce won a federal court case that allowed him to transfer $1 million of his congressional funds to his Guv campaign. He lost to MLG in 2018.
Heinrich has never been wildly popular in his congressional career, which dates back to 2009, but he has been a reliable performer for the Dems. In fact, he has never lost a political race since first getting elected to the ABQ City Council in 2003.
FIRST LOSS?
Heinrich's first loss does not seem likely to come in 2024 but longtime analyst Greg Payne offers a scenario where Heinrich could finally find out what losing feels like:
If Heinrich runs for Governor in 2026 I could see him losing the Democratic preprimary convention—where candidates are placed on the June primary ballot—to Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland--if she were in the race. Those conventions are dominated by hardcore progressives who tend to favor Haaland. But Heinrich would still win a spot on the ballot and then could turn around and win the actual primary and nomination. Haaland has struggled in the early going while Heinrich continues to gear up.
Heinrich's latest FEC report is not yet posted. Here is his first quarter report and here is his May 4 re-election announcement. And here is his statement regarding his second quarter fund-raising:
New Mexicans deserve a leader in Washington who is all in on delivering a better future for our people and our state. I could not be more grateful to have the support of hardworking families across New Mexico, and I am proud to continue the fight together to champion the issues that matter most — from expanding access to quality health care and education, creating a clean energy future, growing our economy, and building a strong middle class.
GREEN HYDROGEN
It seems to me that a more nuanced perspective than you obtained from the coalition of groups quoted in your 15 June blog is needed.
While it is true that hydrogen produced from natural gas should not be supported because the process emits greenhouse gases, hydrogen produced from water by electrolysis (so-called green hydrogen) does not produce greenhouse gases (in particular, carbon dioxide). While it is also true that green hydrogen is not a very efficient source of energy, so that it would not be economically competitive with energy produced by solar or wind, I believe that the environmental community considers it a potential backup source for electricity when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
Green hydrogen could be valuable for energy users that are difficult to electrify, such as long-range, heavy duty trucking and air transportation. Green hydrogen could also be a back-up source of energy when long-term, weather-related outages of sunshine and wind occur. An added consideration is that, during peak production of solar and or wind when most of our electricity is supplied by those sources, the electricity produced sometimes will exceed the demand. (This is already happening in California.) Currently, that excess energy is simply discarded. Thus, it would be essentially free to capture that excess energy by producing green hydrogen.
CLEAN-UP
In the first draft of the Tuesday blog City Council District 6 candidate Jeff Hoehn was identified as a Republican and Nichole Rogers was identified as an attorney. Hoehn is a Democrat. Rogers is a business consultant. Candiate Joseph Pitluck Aguirre was identified as a Republican. He was an R until February then switched to independent. And the City Council is controlled by the Dems 5-4 since the last election, not 6 to 3.
Punishment for these infractions is five lashes (not ten) with a wet noodle. They shall be self-administered. Have a nice day.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023