Judge Van Soleyn

It's not easy being a judge in the battle over New Mexico redistricting. 

There are five Democratic state Supreme Court justices--some with decided progressive leanings--keeping watch as the Republican lawsuit alleging the three congressional districts were gerrymandered nears trial. 

And you have a conservative GOP rural district court judge presiding over that three day bench trial set to begin Sept. 27 and with his decision deadline from the Supremes now October 6. 

All the judicial players are expected to keep their emotions and political views to themselves as the heated arguments pour forth. It may be asking too much but that's the system here. First there is the partisan scuffling in the Legislature to come up with the new districts then the inevitable legal wrangling.

Would an independent redistricting commission doing the task instead of the Legislature, as some have suggested, make a difference? Maybe, but we aren't about to find out since redistricting is done only once a decade with the next one scheduled for 2031 after the 2030 census. 

With Judge Fred Van Soleyn of Clovis praising the GOP argument for erasing the new districts and the Supreme Court agreeing to have him move the case forward to trial, there has been speculation that the high court--which will receive the appeal that will result from whatever Soleyn decides--might be prone to go along with a decision that tears up the new congressional districts that are now occupied by three Democrats.

Don't say fat chance, but slim to none might be proper. National independent experts argue that the new districts still keeps open a chance of Republican victories in the three seats. The most compelling chance of victory is in the southern congressional district where former US Rep. Yvette Herrell is challenging Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who won the seat from her in the new district in 2022.

Chief Justice Bacon

Bolstering the argument that the Republican vote is not being diluted in the southern 2nd CD is the rankings by the professional pundits--including the Cook Political Report--that the Vasquez-Herrell rematch is one of the few true toss-up seats in the US House in 2024. How can that be if the seat was gerrymandered to shut out the Republicans? 

The first and Third Districts are more solidly Democratic. The fact that no major Republicans have yet emerged to run for those seats next year speaks to that. 

In the end it is not partisanship that has isolated the New Mexican Republicans. It is the desertion from their party over a decade and the flight of new voters to the Democrats. The GOP numbers are so diminished that they control no major statewide offices, none of the five seats in the state's congressional delegation, neither chamber of the Legislature, no seats on the aforementioned state supreme court and no GOP presidential candidate has carried the state since 2004. 

The US Senate seats, the presidential election and the statewide offices can't be gerrymandered. If the Republicans have voting strength that needs to be more fully accounted for in the redistricting, there is no evidence of it in any recent election. They have simply been outvoted and have lost their standing in the state. The famous political cliche that "elections have consequences" is why the GOP has been cornered not because of a partisan gerrymander. 

It would be nice and maybe even better for the state if there were a Republican or two to balance out the current Democratic dominance. But that's a right to be earned by a political party--not a privilege to be handed out in a lawsuit fight. 

(The preceding were political arguments in favor of the current lines, not necessarily legal ones.)

For example, In July of 2009 he wrote to us:

And in June of 2007 Van Soleyn wrote:

It turned out that neither Wiviott or Domenici were successful in 2008. Domenici ended up stunning the state by announcing he would not seek another term. Wiviott dropped out of the Dem US Senate primary when Tom Udall got in and then ran for the northern congressional seat. Udall ultimately took Domenici's Senate slot and Ben Ray Lujan won the northern US House seat. 

NM Congressional Districts

In 2020 the state evaluation of Judge Van Soleyn by the Judicial Performance Evaluation Commission (JPEC) found him somewhat wanting:

The commission did recommend that Van Soleyn be retained by Curry and Roosevelt county voters for a six year term and he was.

Here is a key passage of the ruling by Judge Van Soleyn that sent the GOP lawsuit to trial:

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