First NM Prez Polling Of Cycle Shows Little Change; Biden Still Prevailing over Trump, Plus: MLG Approval Below 50 And Heinrich Sports Anemic Numbers

Those looking for a sign--any sign--that New Mexico might return to its once vaunted status as a presidential swing state are not receiving any encouragement from the first presidential polling of the '24 cycle. 

A survey conducted by Public Policy Polling says a '24 rematch between Biden and Trump is pretty much where things left off after the 2020 election. That year Biden beat Trump in NM 54-44. In the August 23-24 poll of 767 registered voters Biden wins 49-41 over Trump--an eight point gap. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis does slightly better against Biden but like Trump is mired in the low 40's with 43 percent of the vote to Biden's 49 percent. 

George W. Bush was the last Republican to win our state's five electoral votes. That was in 2004. 

Dem Gov. Lujan Grisham's approval rating has slipped to 47 percent with her disapproval rating at 43 percent, according to the PPP survey. She was re-elected last year with 52 percent of the vote. 

The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 3.5 percent. 

HENRICH ANEMIA

The next Guv election is in 2026 and Senator Martin Heinrich, who continues to plan for a possible Guv candidacy, can take no joy in the poll. His approval rating is an anemic 38 percent with 33 percent who disapprove. The most interesting number is the 29 percent of voters who said they were not sure about the job he was doing. That's high.

Heinrich was first elected to the US House in 2008. He has served in the US Senate since 2012. Those numbers are not going to do anything to help him clear the field to succeed MLG. In fact, he has to keep his eyes focused on 2024 when he seeks a third US Senate term. He has yet to draw a Republican opponent or a Dem primary foe but those numbers for a state's senior senator are not inspiring. 

In Heinrich's defense the Congress is not all that popular overall with voters so getting an approval rating north of 50 percent is more difficult than in the past but the number can get there with plenty of campaign advertising. Heinrich easily won re-election in 2018 when he received 54 percent of the vote with Republican Mick Rich getting 30 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson 15 percent. 

Meantime, Sen. Ben Ray Lujan slightly outpolled Heinrich in the approval department garnering 42 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval. 22 percent said they were uncertain about his job performance. Lujan is not up for re-election until 2026. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023