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| Herrell & Vasquez (KUNM) |
Those races still appear far out of reach of the GOP next year (see below) but not the southern congressional district where former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell is off to a fast start in her challenge of Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez.
The first public poll of the 2nd CD comes from SurveyUSA for KOB-TV and shows Herrell beating Vasquez 46 to 45 percent, but with a margin of error of 4.8 percent this contest is a dead heat. The poll was done September 6-12 among 541 likely voters.
The Herrell camp has to be pleased that Rep. Vasquez has not pulled away after nine months on the job while the Vasquez camp has been resigned to a down-to-the-wire battle and the poll confirms that's what's coming.
The undecided is only 9 percent between these two fairly well-known warriors and that means the race will turn more on getting out the vote than persuading the small pool of undecideds. From SurveyUSA:
SurveyUSA' polling. . .shows a dead heat, 46% to 45%, with Herrell. . . atop Vasquez, and 9% of likely voters saying they are undecided. . .Among men, Herrell leads by 13 points; among women, Vasquez leads by 9, a 22-point gender gap. White voters back the Republican by an 11-point margin; non-white voters support Vasquez by 7. Herrell is up by 12 points among likely voters with high school educations and by 7 among those who have some college; Vasquez leads by 11 among those with 4-year college degrees. Regionally, Vasquez leads by 12 points in urban parts of the district and has a very slight 3-point edge in the suburbs; Herrell leads by 18 points in the rural plurality of the district.
Herrell's favorable rating in the poll is 38 with 32 unfavorable. Vasquez is 33 percent favorable and 32 unfavorable.
The partisan lean of the 2nd CD has gone to plus 4 percent for the Dems from plus 14 for the Republicans following redistricting that took effect in the 2022 election when Vasquez beat Herrell by 1,350 votes. But Hispanic defections from the Democrats and the possibility that Biden will underperform in the district has buoyed GOP hopes.
In a fund-raising pitch Monday night Vasquez resorted to off-color language to rouse his supporters as he fretted over the poll:
. . . Because of you, I won with less than one percent of the vote.
That pissed off (Speaker) Kevin McCarthy and the right-wing extremists. Now, he’s throwing as much money as he can behind my opponent, and we’re already facing even slimmer margins in the first days of my reelection campaign.
Okay, you're freaking out Gabe, but can't you watch the potty mouth stuff? You are a congressman, right? Geez. . .
We pointed out Monday that when making his re-election announcement this weekend Vasquez concentrated on the Hispanic ABQ South Valley, Socorro and Las Cruces. With good reason. That seven percent lead he has among nonwhite voters is weak and needs to be shored up.
Vasquez vs. Herrell will likely be the only competitive race for the state's three US House seats. ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury has yet to draw a Republican opponent. Elsewhere. . .
FAMILIAR NAME
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| Sharon Clahchischilliage |
She says of her candidacy:
In the US Senate race Dem Martin Heinrich has yet to draw a high-profile and/or a well-financed challenger but he does have an opponent now in Ben Luna, a former chair of the Otero County GOP, perhaps the most conservative county in the state. Ne told the conservative Pinon Post he is running. Luna's website describes him as an:
It’s time for Congress to hear a voice like mine, someone who has served our country, taught in the classroom, raised on the family farm, and fought against the radicals in Santa Fe.
She says high inflation and high crime are two reasons she should be elected.
In 2022 she won a seat on the state Public Education Commission.
Leger Fernandez, 64, an attorney and liberal Dem, won her 2020 election in the old district 59 to 41. But she didn't slow down in the new district when she won with 58 percent in '22.
In the old northern CD Biden won elected by 17 points. Under the new map that goes down to 10. The district sprawls across the north and now also takes in some conservative SE NM territory.
The district has a large percentage of Native voters but they vote heavy Dem.
TLF's main work in this term has been to steer fire relief for those impacted by the historic Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon blaze.
SENATE CANDIDATE
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| Ben Luna |
Entrepreneur, independent citizen journalist, and American patriot who aims to return America to the founding principles which created the greatest and freest nation. Aside from experiencing the restriction of liberties during the Covid pandemic, Ben has witnessed the widespread devastation of authoritarian policies and social degradation by woke progressive activism.
Ben is determined to safeguard American rights, freedoms, and opportunity for hardworking Americans and the rising generation.
Heinrich is seeking a third term.
THE BOTTOM LINES
In a first draft Monday we said newly appointed GOP state Senator Steve McCutcheon had worked as City Administrator for the city of Carlsbad. Actually, it was the senator's father who had that job.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023