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| Election Night '23 |
Joe, ABQ is an increasingly progressive town. I do agree with attorney David Buchholtz who said on KANW on Election Night that we’ve reached "a peak" of sorts with the progressives but it's a very high one. The fact that a a Democratic candidate with as much baggage as Idalia Lechuga Tena kept the District 8 city council race competitive in the Northeast Heights tells you something. Hard to believe but once red Tramway Blvd. is now progressive territory.
Lechuga Tena lost District 8 to Republican Dan Champine 52 to 48 percent.
Joe, Progressives romped in Santa Fe defeating Geno Zamora and electing progressive Alma Castro. However, she is an inexperienced newcomer in a city that desperately needs some professional government expertise on that council.
Our analysis: Okay, she may not have government experience but the newcomer knows how to put together an organization to beat the biggest name who ran in Santa Fe. That's a start. Zamora spent some $80,000 and had a collection of who's who in endorsements but ran as a Bill Richardson-Lujan Grisham Dem centrist. In small local elections and primaries in Dem territory progressives now often dominate and there isn't much room for a middle of the road contender.
Joe, If you were on the Republican side in Albuquerque you really have to start rethinking your strategy but the real focus is going to be on progressives and what they can truly achieve. The fact that they can do so well and win so many races, but still not have control of the city council really says something about their abilities as a movement. They can win races, but they don’t really change the dynamics in this town.
Our analysis: The progressives have not been able to persuade working class Hispanic voters on the westside to go with them. Conservative Dem Council Louis Sanchez represents District 1 and often caucuses with the Republicans to give them a majority on the council.
NOT OVER YET
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| Jeff Hoehn |
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| Nichole Rogers |
Early voting for the runoff election will begin on Tuesday, Nov. 21 and continue through Saturday, Dec. 9. Five Early Voting Convenience Centers will be open from Monday to Saturday, 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. On Election Day, Tuesday, Dec. 12, voters can visit any of ten Election Day Voting Convenience Centers. Voters who wish to vote absentee must request an absentee application by Nov. 28. The Clerk’s Office is at 505-243-VOTE (8683) or at clerk@bernco.gov.
ABQ voters must be registered in District 6 to be eligible to vote. As for the race, Rogers has been a favorite from the start and after taking 40 percent to Hoehn's 32 percent on Election Day she remains so. The remainder went to two other candidates.
We asked one of of our Alligators keeping watch on the race for this first analysis of the run-off campaign:
Rogers takes the pole position into the run-off and she'll have big labor union backing in the city's most liberal council district. Hoehn made a gamble that not rejecting backing from the commercial real estate business PAC--HELP ABQ-- would not be noticed in the district but it probably was. If that Republican oriented PAC comes in again for him in the run-off, it will be an even bigger issue.
Rogers may be vulnerable to Hoehn's attacks on her career and financial background which has still not been fully vetted. But it will take a major surprise to stop the Democratic machine from giving ABQ its first Black elected councilor with Nichole Rogers.
Hoehn noted on his website November 3 that he did not support the negative messaging that the HELP ABQ PAC had made against Rogers, but since the PAC is independent of his campaign there is nothing he can do about. He continues to reference himself as a "progressive Democrat" who "is not in the pocket" of developers despite the Republican dominated PAC spending heavily for him.
HEINRICH RECORD
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| Heinrich's winners |
US Sen. Martin Heinrich was once again a prolific endorser this election cycle, giving the nod to 16 candidates across the state. Ten of them were successful making for a win percentage of about 62 percent.
But on some big races Heinrich took some hits.
His biggest loss was the aforementioned defeat of Santa Fe establishment candidate Geno Zamora who was beaten by the impressive grassroots campaign of Alma Castro.
Heinrich was dealt another blow in the high profile Las Cruces mayoral race where he endorsed Kassandra Gandara, a social worker, Las Cruces city councilor and wife of Dem state Sen. Bill Soules. She was aced by veteran firefighter and city administrator Eric Enriquez.
The First Endorser also fell short with Dem Abby Foster, his pick for ABQ City Council District 4 where incumbent Republican Brook Bassan hung on by a thread to take the win, 51 to 49, in what lived up to its billing as a toss-up race.
Heinrich did score with his endorsement of Rolanda Tome-Warito, a Democrat who ousted longtime ABQ westside Republican APS School Board member Peggy Muller-Aragon.
His pick for ABQ City Council District 2 was Joaquin Baca who took the victory in a three way race.
The other endorsements Heinrich made were mostly in small towns and lower level races for Soil and Water Conservation boards, even though his campaign spun that all 11 of his successful picks were "big wins."
TWO MORE TAKES
Commentator Michael Hays of Las Cruces weighs in with more on the mayoral battle there:
I received a Kassandra Gandara flyer which featured the pictures of about a dozen Democratic state and federal legislators endorsing her. So her defeat says something interesting about the influence of these endorsements and/or about Gandara’s local support.
THE BOTTOM LINES
Want more? Join me on 96.3 KKOB radio at 5 p.m. as we kick the political football around with TJ Trout. . .
Thanks to Tesuque Pueblo for opening their homes to us for their annual Feast Day of San Diego on Sunday. Great food and great people.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023