Veteran Dem Consultant Predicts Rogers Victory In ABQ City Council Run-off, Plus: GOP Consultant McCleskey Recovering From Injuries In "Serious" Accident. And: State Senator Steps Aside In Favor of "New Blood" But It Appears Old Blood Will Take His Seat

Nichole Rogers

If longtime progressive Dem political consultant Neri Holguin has it right Nichole Rogers should have a smooth path to victory in her December 12 run-off election with Jeff Hoehn for the District 6 ABQ City Council seat in the liberal SE Heights.

I think Jeff is in trouble because of the considerable financial support his campaign has received from the PAC associated with commercial real estate interests. It is primarily made up of Republicans and as that word circulates the majority Democrats in the district will recoil from supporting him. 

In one of their ads that created backlash in the district, the PAC labels the Sierra Club and other progressive groups backing Rogers as "extremist" groups.

That PAC, Help ABQ, operates independently of Hoehn's campaign. While complaining that their attack ads on the progressive groups were off base, he has not rejected the PAC's support. 

The PAC tells me that they will also be supporting Hoehn with paid media in the run-off. In the regular election the PAC raised about $180,000 and spent money in three city council races. 

Rogers campaign will receive $20,000 in public financing for the run-off and she received $40,000 for the initial election. Hoehn did not take public financing and is privately financing.

Early voting for the run-off is already underway. Only residents of District 6 can cast ballots. Early voting runs until Saturday, December 9. Voting locations are here.

INSIDE THE CAMPAIGN

Jeff Hoehn

Rogers got by Hoehn 40-32 in the first round. We go to a run-off because in the multi-candidate race no-one achieved 50 percent of the vote. 

Hoehn, who runs the nonprofit Cuidando Los Niños, is a Democrat with a long history of running nonprofits. He is also head of the Nob Hill Neighborhood Association. 

Rogers, who is in sales with Primerica Financial Services, worked for Mayor Keller as the African-American community's Business Liaison with the Office of Equity Inclusion. She would be the first African-American elected to the Council since the modern form of government was adopted in 1974. 

Rogers is the more progressive of the two. Hoehn is no conservative but in an opinion piece for the newspaper he indicated he was irritated with Mayor Keller and the Dem machine for backing his opponent. (Rogers op-ed here.)

Rogers has come under fire for failing to comply with state registration regulations for a nonprofit she founded but Holguin says the mistake lacks sting and she does not expect Rogers to be upended by any more ethics charges.

By her count Holguin has now consulted some 100 state political campaigns. She briefly consulted the Rogers campaign at the start of the regular election. She is not involved in the run-off.

McCLESKEY ACCIDENT

McCleskey cycling (2021)

Meanwhile, another veteran NM political consultant, the often controversial Republican Jay McCleskey, found himself in the hospital on City Election Night November 7, reports a longtime acquaintance:

Jay had a serious motorcycle accident in late October and suffered multiple injuries. He was in the hospital for a number of days including the day of the city election. He has since been released and continues his recovery. 

Well-wishers offered McCleskey support in response to a private post on his Facebook page with several of them saying they were glad "it wasn't worse." McCleskey has not publicly released details of the accident.

In the Nov. 7 election McCleskey consulted council candidates Brook Bassan in District 4 and Dan Champine in District 8. 

Both Republicans managed victories but Bassan won over Abby Foster in a squeaker and Champine under performed (52 to 48) against Dem Idalia Lechuga Tena, 

McCleskey made his bones and the big bucks when he was the lead consultant for Gov. Susana Martinez. She served from 2011-19. More recently he consulted the two unsuccessful statewide races of former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti.

NEW OLD BLOOD

Sen. Griggs

He's 71 and says he wants "new blood" top represent his state senate district so 12 year Senator Ron Griggs of Alamogordo says he will not seek re-election to a fourth term next year: 

I am proud of the work I have done as your Senator and will continue to serve the people of New Mexico. But the time has come for new blood, new eyes, new ideas, and new directions.

The problem? The likely replacement for Griggs in the solid GOP district made up of parts of Chaves, Eddy and Otero counties is from state Rep. James Townsend, the former House Minority Leader. He's pushing 70.

Townsend's decision to run a primary campaign against Griggs is being credited with forcing Griggs out of the District 34 seat but Griggs says he could have beaten Townsend. 

A challenge to the well-financed Townsend with his connections to the booming oil industry is unlikely. Also,  the district is all R all the time. No Dems need apply. So, that's how you get old "new blood."

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023