Most observers believe the Senate race still tilts heavily toward Heinrich, even if Domenici is the winner of the GOP June nomination but candidates rarely miss an opportunity to raise money and her candidacy is certainly that.
Here's the Heinrich take on the shake-up in his contest for a third term made in a fund-raising pitch:
A Republican multi-millionaire announced her campaign to defeat Martin in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race. Martin’s new challenger is a longtime hedge fund executive who has already poured half a million dollars into her own campaign. As the daughter of New Mexico’s last Republican Senator, she is all but certain to have GOP mega-donors lining up to support her bid. . .While Martin’s opponent may have a personal fortune and the GOP establishment behind her, what we have is far more valuable: a grassroots movement that comes together to fight for our shared values time and time again. . .We can’t afford to lose Martin’s voice in the Senate. The issues that matter most to our movement are at stake, from preserving our public lands and waters to protecting critical benefits like Medicare and Social Security. But this race is officially competitive, and we need to build up our grassroots resources immediately to win. Between Martin’s new opponent jumping in and Donald Trump planning to ramp up his campaign in New Mexico, it’s clear Republicans are making the Land of Enchantment a top target this year. We have our work cut out for us in the months ahead. . .
Whether the race is "officially competitive" won't be known until the first round of head-to-head polling but Domenici does have cash to spend and that will make her a player and the favorite to beat former BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales, her major opponent for the GOP nomination.
But big questions linger about the new would-be Senator. Just how much money is she prepared to put into the effort because while Heinrich's fundraising pitch asserts that GOP "mega-donors" will back her, that is far from certain and probably not so--unless polling shows an unexpectedly close contest.
Then there's the abortion issue hanging over the head of every Republican in the nation seeking public office. We asked the Domenici campaign if she was pro-life or pro-choice but did not get a response.
Is it conceivable that she could be pro-choice? There is not one elected NM Republican who comes to mind who holds that position. Would it be a deal-breaker for grass roots Republicans and give Gonzales the nomination? Domenici, raised a Catholic, may end up threading the needle on abortion as Republican Mark Ronchetti fruitlessly attempted in his '22 Guv campaign.
And what about her support of Trump? Will she dance around that one as Ronchetti did in his two statewide runs, only to accept the former president's endorsement near the end of his last campaign?
Or will Domenici go all in with Trump who lost to Biden here by ten points? A closer race may be in store this year between the two likely presidential nominees. If so that would make campaign life much more comfortable for Domenici who is going to need a blow-out in Trump country in the south to have any hope of a win. But embracing Trump endangers possible swing areas she also needs. Living with the Donald is not easy.
GOING LEFT ON GAZA
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| Sen. Lujan |
The Senate on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to reject a resolution forced to a vote by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) aimed at tying U.S. military assistance for Israel to the country's humanitarian treatment of Palestinian human rights. Why it matters: It's a demonstration of the bipartisan support Israel still enjoys in Congress despite pockets of opposition among Democratic lawmakers.
The Senate voted 72-11 to table the resolution, effectively killing it.
Sanders and Sens. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) voted against blocking the resolution.
Tuesday was also the day pro-Palestinian protestors interrupted MLG's state of the state speech three times as they shouted support for them.
Heinrich's vote was unexpected and will be greeted warmly by the left wing but it could impact campaign donations from pro-Israeli donors.
Even as most Democratic senators are reluctant to take a position not viewed as fully supporting Israel, polling shows a majority of Democrats believe the Israelis went too far in their response to the Hamas October attack that started the fighting.
Of most interest in the polling for New Mexico is this:
Nonwhites were 15 points more likely to say the response has been too much (48% vs. 33% for whites).
VOX POPULI
Joe, Help me here, I do not remember Sen. Tom Udall or Gov. Bill Richardson hanging out in NM until they ran for office. Peso Bill came out of nowhere from Mexico. And Tom showed up from Arizona with a sack full of money from his daddy. No one knows where Bill got his Mexico seed money.
Thanks, Richard. But we do know where Big Bill got his seed money because we covered him back in the early 80's when he started out. For one of his first campaigns (if not his first; we can't recall) he received a $100,000 CD from his mother who lived in Mexico where Bill's Boston father was stationed as a banker.
Reader John G. in ABQ also writes of the Senate campaign:
Joe, you wrote: "There must be gravitas to a candidacy." Gravitas, while it helps, isn’t enough. Domenici's problem is the same Mark Ronchetti ran into and that Trump will run into this year: how to handle the extremists that currently control the Republican party. While playing to them may get her and him the party's nomination, it’s just the opposite of what’s needed to win the general election.
On that note: I’m amazed that the Mainstream Media is falling all over themselves that Trump dominated the Iowa caucuses. Since when is Trump being overwhelmingly picked by a bunch of White, Evangelical, Christian Nationalists (the Republican Party of late) a surprise? And, you outdid yourself with the Nella blog Tuesday. . .
Thanks, John. We always enjoy the unexpected in politics.
And a final note, we erroneously had Nella Domenici receiving a law degree from Harvard in a first draft Wednesday. Here's how she describes her higher education:
I waited tables to help pay for my undergraduate degree from Georgetown University. While holding down a full time job, I paid my way through night school at Georgetown Law. I also paid for Harvard Business School, graduating as a Baker Scholar, top 5% of the class, while nine months pregnant.
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