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Thursday, February 01, 2024

Budget ‘24: It’s A Whopper; Over $10 Billion Plan Heads To Senate Along With Amendment Dashing Longer School Year, Plus: More on That $50 Billion NM Cash Stash; Readers Speak Out  

The main purpose of these short legislative budgets session is. . .well. . . passing a budget. The state House gave the state one Wednesday and it's a whopper, topping out at a record $10.18 billion representing a 6.5 percent increase. The Senate is expected to approve something in that ballpark and the Governor's proposal is similar. 

About half the budget usually goes to operate the public schools. This one is no exception with a nearly $5 billion outlay approved for them along with the rest of the budget on a 53-16 vote. 

There are 25 Republicans in the House but not all of them could be held back from joining the party even if it meant rejecting their party's usual fiscal austerity. All Dems voted in favor.

What is different this time is an amendment in the budget that would not allow the Public Education Department to use any money to enforce a 180-day school year, probably one of the better ideas coming out of the Governor's office and that of Secretary of Education Arsenio Romero.  

It is mighty unpopular because it is a culture changer and upends the lackadaisical attitude toward educational achievement that for decades has held back progress. It could be the forerunner of more change--a must to reverse the atherosclerosis in public education in our enchanted land. 

At 50th or always near it in the national educational rankings, Secretary Romero has argued the time has come to make the educational community uncomfortable and adopt an idea that forces them to look at that standing and stop excusing it.

The idea is so unpopular there's a dartboard in a back room of the Bull Ring with Romero's face on it that gets heavy use. But we joke as Romero forges ahead: 

This amendment is just a step in the legislative process that is a long way from being finished. The 180 instructional day calendar rule referred to has not been enacted and is still under consideration. 

Well, good luck in the senate, Mr. Secretary. If they can use a dartboard you can at least use your old teacher's paddle.

STACKS OF CASH

As we blogged Tuesday the state's numerous permanent funds are awash in money, hitting the milestone mark of $50 billion at the end of last year. But we misstated the amount those funds spin off to the state's General Fund for that $10 billion annual budget expected to soon win final approval. A State Investment Council spokesman says: 

You indicated that the funds contributions to the state budget will be $1.2 billion for next fiscal year’s $10B+ budget, but actually that’s a little low - for fiscal year '25, the three primary trust funds will. . . will deliver $1.977 billion-$2.077 billion to the state this next year, or close to 20% of the state’s FY25 budget.

They also pointed out the Early Childhood Fund just created in 2020 with $300 million is today valued at nearly $6 billion. The House budget calls for spending $250 million of that next budget year and that's only about 4 percent of the total.

Then there's the constitutional amendment for early childhood and other education that took effect last July and is expected to generate $250 million annually. 

Arguably, New Mexico may be overfunding early childhood education, given the difficulty of staffing for the various programs. But it is a big bet with potentially a big return and one of the few policymakers have been willing to make (with a big push from voters who approved the measure at the polls in '22).

By the way, the Early Childhood Fund was the work of conservative Democrats who were against the constitutional amendment because it is funded from the Land Grant Permanent Fund. Their early childhood fund receives funding from excess oil and gas revenues not the LGPF. The conservatives never dreamed the fund would explode to this level. But the oil boom took care of that and that's how you get two powerful streams of funding for early childhood ed. 

STILL CAUTIOUS

Returning to the State Investment Council (SIC) and their conservative views on the staggering cash surpluses accumulating in Santa Fe. They are still holding on to their conservative coats with the spokesman saying:

The original concepts behind creating these permanent funds is to help the state deal with that eventual day – which gets closer all the time – when oil and gas will no longer be able to play such a prominent role in the state’s revenues and our ability to pay for schools and other important functions of state government. As the energy transition occurs, New Mexico will need both economic diversification and other revenue generators – and these funds can serve that revenue engine role and provide billions of dollars to New Mexico needs every year. It’s clear that our Governor and many of our legislators understand that dynamic, and the need to strike a balance in efficiently meeting today’s goals while also positioning us well for the future.

We've been hearing that for 50 years. Not that it doesn't make sense but today's era is historic, was unforeseeable and offers the chance to take chances to dig us out of the cellar. 

Today's New Mexicans want measurable, concrete results from this largesse before it fades away. That calls for scrutinizing that decades-old SIC mission statement.

We take it to our readers starting with Ken Tabish who floats the idea of a child tax credit for New Mexico similar to the one that the Feds approved during the pandemic and which made a real difference in reducing the national poverty rate: 

It is a dilemma. $50 billion socked away yet as a state ranked 50th on many indices. Poverty prevails when families are financially and socially stressed and begin to disintegrate resulting in poor mental health, increased drug addiction, leading to homelessness, crime and incarceration. Children in these families are plagued by poor attendance and poor educational outcomes, not to mention the nutritional, socio-emotional support they need to survive and grow. 

The continued investment in early childhood education coupled with the social support for mothers and young children is a great investment. Unfortunately, these investments will take time to bear fruit of change in our social well being. 

Again, with all this money from oil and gas, lets get the money to where it has most impact: single mother's with children, low income families with children and families with children with payments based on income levels. Direct payments to families provided by the Feds during Covid greatly reduced child poverty in this country. It was a great investment, I believe we can do the same in this state if we get all this new revenue directly to the families with children who need it. 

New Mexico does have a decent child tax credit but nothing like the monthly payments to families that were adopted during covid:

The Taxation and Revenue Department on Monday began accepting 2023 New Mexico Personal Income Tax returns. Starting this year, New Mexico families will be able to claim a new child tax credit that
can be worth up to $600 per qualifying child. The credit gradually decreases in value as income rises. This new child tax credit is expected to provide an estimated $180 million total to 292,000 families statewide. We know child tax credits reduce childhood poverty, so this is another critical step to lift up New Mexico families,” said Governor Lujan Grisham.

Not bad but for a state with the highest rate of poverty and dead last in child well-being direct cash transfers of $300 a month (with accountability) to eligible families is an idea whose time appears to have come--and the money is there to do it. 

MORE MAIL

Reader M. Wald writes:

With such a large fund, NM really should be doing MUCH better economically. Why aren't we? 

Elisa Sánchez writes:

Great article. NM will continue at the bottom because it has never dealt with the reality that it is a colonized Minority/majority state. Latinos and Native Americans are the majority in the schools and yet invisible. 

An ABQ reader writes: 

Joe, you hit the roofing nail on the head with a sledge hammer! Why is the $50 billion not being used on our kids and our less fortunate? Those that want the fees generated by “ investing” lobby to keep investing all the while they get rich and those of us who live here keep our 50 in everything status. What is so so sad is that no matter who we vote for nothing ever changes. 

Thanks for the comments. That's a lot of frustration mixed in with a dose of populism but that's what you get when you have $50 billion socked away in a state of 2.1 million and that can't seem to get off its back.  

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024

 
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