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Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Heinrich Wades Into Fiery State Senate Primary; Endorses Foe Of Embattled Incumbent Ivey-Soto; He Snaps Back As He Combats Progressive Challenge; Analysis And Context Of This Top Tier Contest

Senator Martin Heinrich has waded into the emotionally charged Democratic primary in ABQ state senate District 15 with an endorsement for Heather Berghmans, a challenger of Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto. But unlike most of Heinrich's dozens of other endorsements this one is anything but routine and he's getting blow-back from the embattled incumbent: 

I wasn't aware that Senator Heinrich lived in my district, in fact I'm pretty sure he doesn't. Still, I wish him well trying to vote for her. 

That sniping is not something the senior senator--who is not a resident of that district--is used to but he did step step on the cat's tail.

Heinrich's endorsement does nothing to improve his standing with Hispanic men--a weak polling spot--so  seeking re-election in his own right this year, he isn't about to get into a direct fight with the wily Ivey-Soto. 

The state senator is an attorney with decades of La Politica experience now in combat with Dem Party progressives over sexual harassment charges and also because of his moderate politics that have repeatedly thwarted the hard left of the party.

For Heinrich it is imperative that he hold his large progressive base in Bernalillo County against Republican Nella Domenici so even if he didn't want to endorse Berghmans he had little choice. He is known as the First Endorser and must go where those votes are.

Heinrich did not make reference to Ivey Soto's ethics issues with progressive lobbyist Marianne Anaya, who has accused the state senator of harrassment dating from 2017, but Ivey Soto points out he has been found guilty of nothing--not by a court of law and not by the Ethics Commission.

But progressives have lowered the bar for such accusations and say Ivey Soto's behavior with women at the Roundhouse has often crossed the line. Berghmans says :

I am challenging incumbent Daniel Ivey-Soto in the Democratic Primary who has has been credibly accused by multiple women of sexual harassment and other forms of abuse over the last two years. 

The stakes are high. A Berghmans win in the primary and general would add to the progressive ranks of the Senate.

CENTRAL ISSUE

Berghmans
This will be a central issue in the June 4 primary: Is Ivey Soto so damaged by the charges that he has already lost the race or will voters scrutinize more fully the charges and determine they are an overreach?

Berghman's candidacy is further tied to that judgement because her life and work experience is light. If elected, she would be the youngest senator. 

A third candidate, animal rights activist Marcy Britton, has previously said she would also run for the Dem nod. Filing day for all legislative candidates is today.

Heinrich leaned into identity politics to give his favored candidate a boost: 

Heather has experience working with many of our Democratic elected officials to pass key legislation on workers’ rights, environmental protection, reproductive care, and common-sense gun safety. Her experience, enthusiasm, and solid understanding of the issues will serve her well in representing State Senate District 15. . . There are only 11 women in the State Senate, and even fewer in her generation. If elected, she’ll be the youngest woman in the State Senate. We need folks like Heather stepping up to run.

Berghman's primary work experience has been as a political aide to the House Dem campaign committee and policy aide to House Speakers Brian Egolf and Javier Martinez. 

She will rely on the well-oiled progressive machine (and unions) to see her through as Ivey-Soto has banked over $100,000 for the contest.

Ivey Soto, first elected in 2012, was a Senate powerhouse, chairing the Senate Rules Committee and presiding over election law legislation like a czar. He was toppled from that chairmanship after the harassment charges and voters will have to decide whether he is still effective going forward. 

There's no question Ivey-Soto is on the ropes and the primary will tilt progressive. But this is a district with a lot of working class Dems, a fair number of Hispanics and perhaps a political atmosphere that may not be quite as punitive for Ivey Soto as last year. We'll keep an eye on it.

As for the Republicans, this is not a district where they will get blown-out. It's 46 percent Dem 27 R and 25 independent but it's close to being "all D all the time" which makes the Ivey-Soto-Berghmans face off all the more critical.  

GOOD START BUT. . .

Reader Michal Hays comments on the Monday blog highlighting Sec. of Education Arsenio Romero:

Secretary Romero is off to a good start, but the finish line is a long way ahead. Once the length of the school day and absenteeism are addressed, the two really big problems will present themselves. One is a state curriculum which, reflective of Common Core, is a demonstration of mediocrity which ensures continued mediocrity. The other is the capabilities of teachers, particularly elementary school teachers. . .The fact is that the majority of their students are not proficient in reading or math by the end of 4th grade. 

Richard Eeds of Santa Fe's KTRC radio sends along this interview he conducted recently with Romero.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024