Domenici Gets Little Traction In Early Public Polling; Memories Of Her Senator Father Yet To Resonate; Heinrich Leads First Survey By 7; Same As Biden Over Trump As Blue Wall Appears To Hold

Nella Domenici has yet to put a crack in the armor of Senator Martin Heinrich with the first public polling showing the two term incumbent with a solid if not overwhelming seven point lead over his GOP rival. 

The PPP survey has it 47 percent for Heinrich, 40 for Domenici and 13 percent undecided. 

Domenici, 63, who made millions as a New York hedge fund manager and is the daughter of the late US Senator Pete Domenici, pumped $500,000 into TV ads beginning in late May that were being aired as the survey was conducted among 555 registered voters from June 13-14. 

She came up empty, polling one point below the 41 percent former President Trump garnered against Biden in the same PPP survey. (The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 4 percent).

The mild surprise is that Domenici's family heritage appears to have done little to improve her standing despite TV ad stressing that heritage. She bet the ranch that they would give her an early pop and put Heinrich on the defensive. Now she will have to go to Plan B. 

Domenici has poked at Heinrich, 52, over his interest in running for Governor in 2026 which would mean he would leave the Senate seat if elected. How much legs that attack has remains to be seen.

Senator Domenici was the longest serving US senator in state history but he left in 2009. His popularity was legendary but took a hit in his retirement years in 2013 when it was disclosed that during his first term in the 1970's he fathered a child out of wedlock with a DC lobbyist who was also the daughter of GOP Senator Paul Laxalt. 

Heinrich's 48 to 37 percent lead among women is the most crucial poll demo.

The blue wall appears to be holding in the ABQ metro, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. Heinrich's anchor for that support of late is reproductive rights which Domenici has struggled with while Heinrich is comfortably pro-choice. 

As with the PPP polling of the NM presidential race, there is no Hispanic problem for Heinrich. He polls 59 percent with the group while Domenici is far back at 24 percent.

That the two term Senator is below the key 50 percent level gives Domenici and the GOP some hope that the race can still be ignited. 

HEINRICH VS. DOMENICI

No sitting US senator has been defeated in the state since 1982 when Republican Harrison Schmitt was ousted by Democrat Jeff Bingaman.

Heinrich's cool, Germanic personality has not personally endeared him to New Mexicans but a plodding competence and persistence and a penchant to not offend has kept him in generally good graces. 

While his legislative record is thin, he has focused much of his time on the environment and has scored notable wins, including the $10 billion SunZiaSunZia solar project. 

He is now the state's senior senator, a member of the Appropriations Committee and his relationship with Senate Dem Leader Schumer appears strong, all factors in protecting and advancing the myriad of federal interests that dominate the state economy.

He was first elected to the ABQ city council in 2003. In 2008 he claimed the ABQ congressional seat. In 2012 he ascended to the Senate when Democrat Jeff Bingaman retired. He was re-elected with ease in 2018.

Domenici's candidacy still breathes because of her thick personal bankroll--upwards of over $90 million, according to Senate disclosure forms. She seeded her campaign with $500,000. 

The moment of truth on how much more of her fortune she decides to spend on the race is fast approaching. The disappointing PPP poll, which is a Democratic-affiliated firm, if not quickly contradicted could inhibit campaign contributions.

Her early TV has not struck a nerve but her personality has yet to be fully revealed, nurturing the possibility of an upset among her supporters. The national environment is also a major factor that could enhance her chances if Biden should fade here.

Meanwhile the structural factors that have made this a reliably Blue state on the national level weigh heavily on Domenici.

The NM Senate race is ranked "Safe Democrat" by US News. Inside Elections in DC rates the contest "Solid Democratic." Other DC pundits have similar rankings.

BATTLE OF THE DADS

Domenici 1970 (Bralley)

Heinrich has aired his first TV ad and it answers Domenici's bragging about her father and his accomplishments with some bragging about his own dad. The script:

No one outworked my dad. As a lineman, he’d go out and battle the wind and the rain to restore the power. I see that same work ethic all across New Mexico. If you’re putting in the work, you deserve to have something to show for it. To be able to provide, to save, to get ahead. That’s why I’m fighting to raise wages and to lower costs for energy, groceries and prescription drugs. And to create good-paying manufacturing jobs. I’ll never forget who I’m fighting for. 

Heinrich's emphasis on his working class background is in contrast to Domenici's upbringing with her political superstar father, although her ads strive to demonstrate that she too grew up in an ordinary family.

Fortunately neither candidate has yet shouted out: "Yy dad is better than yours!" But then the campaign is still young.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024