Lewis in 2017

No sooner is the page turned on Primary '24 and we're quickly onto the 2025 ABQ mayoral election. 

Shortly before the polls closed last Tuesday ABQ City Council President Dan Lewis already had that '25 mayoral contest on his mind, but not in the way one might assume. 

In a text message received at our broadcast studios he told me he is "not interested" in running for the city's top job at next year's election. He declared:

I've never said to anyone or given any indication that I'm running for Mayor. I'm not interested.

While Lewis says there will be no rematch for him with ABQ Mayor Tim Keller, the Mayor is already off and running and seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term.

Lewis' text was apparently prompted by his irritation with recent coverage of a State Ethics Commission probe into whether his new job posed a conflict of interest with his council duties. We said the development would not be good for any upcoming mayoral run. The news:

The State Ethics Commission has entered into a pre-litigation settlement agreement with Albuquerque City Council President Dan Lewis for violation of the Governmental Conduct Act. The agreement addresses allegations that Councilor Lewis acquired a financial interest in employment with the Albuquerque Pavement Association of New Mexico when he had reason to believe that his sponsorship and votes on legislation related to the Albuquerque-Bernalillo County Joint Air Quality Control Board would directly affect his employment.

In addition to his text, District 5 Councilor Lewis sent us this news report from 2017 when the City Ethics Board found that Mayor Keller broke the rules in that year's election. Lewis told us: 

Keller is the only one found guilty of ethics violations. 

Lewis's contention that he never gave "any indication" that he was running for Mayor flies in the face of his recent and stern opposition to Keller as evidenced by his backing of proposed City Charter amendments that Keller is opposing. 

Those amendments include reverting to a mayoral election system where only 40 percent of the vote would be required to win, repealing the current 50 percent requirement that is more likely to result in run-off elections between the two top finishers. 

Lowering that threshold is seen as friendly to potential GOP mayoral and council candidates who are outnumbered by registered Dems in the city.

In 2009 when 40 percent was the requirement for election victory, Republican Richard Berry beat then-Democratic Mayor Marty Chavez and Dem candidate Richard Romero by garnering 44 percent of the vote and winning election without a run-off.

On the other hand in 2017 when the 50 percent requirement was in effect, Keller and Lewis were forced into a run-off election when no one in the eight person field was able to muster a majority of votes. In the run-off Keller crushed northwest GOP Councilor Lewis with 62 percent of the vote in Democratic ABQ.

I broke the news of Lewis saying he is not running next year to Mayor Keller during our KANW election night broadcast. He called the development "interesting" but said he expects a lot of candidates to run for Mayor against him.

FUTURE CANDIDATES?

Lewis is a passionate conservative who has mad no noticeable moves to the middle in his latest term. His council seat is up for election next year. He has not made an announcement regarding a re-election bid but that has now become the expectation.

Now that Lewis is out will another prominent Republicans consider the race? That question may have to wait. If the Council passes the proposed 40 percent election rule, voters will then have to approve it at the November election  If it passes there the calculus changes, perhaps making it more likely for Republicans and others to get in. 

Radio talk show host and Trumper Eddy Aragon tells us he is looking at another mayoral run after getting 18 percent of the vote in a three way race with Keller and Manny Gonzales in 2021, but has not made up his mind. Keller won that election with 56 percent of the vote. 

LOUIE'S NEW LOOK  

Councilor Sanchez

Another development in ABQ politics that could shape the mayoral election happened last week when westside Councilor Louie Sanchez returned to the fold and voted with his party and against Republican Republican councilors who proposed eliminating ABQ's status as a sanctuary city. 

The measure, "which would allow local law enforcement to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers if someone is charged with drug or human trafficking or a violent felon," was defeated on a 5 to 4 party line vote. 

That's unusual because it has often been 5 to 4 with the four Republicans and conservative Dem Councilor Sanchez voting to pass or kill legislation, sometimes leaving it to Mayor Keller to cast a veto. 

Sanchez's immigration vote meant Keller avoided a possibly politically painful veto on the immigration issue. Did it also mean that Louie Sanchez, who has been mentioned as a possible mayoral contender, will instead seek re-election to his council seat next year? Probably. 

SR. GATOR TAKE

One of our Senior Alligators chimes in on the latest Duke City political maneuvers:

Joe, the progressive rout at last Tuesday's primary election has to scare the conservatives on the City Council. They are a unicorn in this town. Republican Councilors Renee Grout and Lewis, conservative Dem Sanchez and even moderate Dem Councilor Klarissa Pena--all of whom are up for re-election next year-- should all be worried.  

Also, the primary may have been good news for Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez. The disaffection of Hispanic male Democrats on the city's Democratic westside did not seem to materialize. It might be there but it is not metastasizing at the rate people like me thought it was. 

The big progressive primary vote should scare Sen. Heinrich about running for Governor in '26 if he wins re-election this year and Mayor Keller is going to have to lock down progressives early to avoid a possible challenge on his left next year. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

In our post-election Monster blog Wednesday we had incorrect numbers in our first draft on the GOP presidential race. Trump received 85 percent of the vote with Nikki Haley getting 9 percent, uncommitted 3 percent and the rest went to former NJ Gov. Chris Christie.

Also, victorious Dem primary state Senate candidate Angel Charley in District 9 does not have any Republican opposition in November. 

Finally, we get this from an avid reader:  

It’s 4:30 a.m. Wednesday. First thing is my coffee and the Joe Monahan blog. In my opinion, all things being equal (and they’re not), women will decide 2024. Have a good day. KBV.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.