Not Great But Good Enough: Polling Shows Biden With Lead Over Trump And Again Poised to Carry New Mexico; Bleed of Hispanic Voters To Trump Is A No-Show

The first public poll of the NM presidential race isn't great news for President Biden but it's good enough and he is again poised to carry the state against Donald Trump in the November election. 

Conducted by PPP June 11-13, the survey has Biden defeating Trump 48 to 41 percent. 11 percent are undecided. 

That margin is less than the 10.8 percent Biden beat Trump by here in 2020, is on track to get closer to that mark.

At 41 percent Trump is at the lower end of the Republican base vote and does not pose any serious threat. He won 43.5 percent in '20 and seems headed for a re-run.

In his first two presidential runs in '16 and '20 Trump repeatedly teased that New Mexico would be a state he would make a play for. He didn't then and with these new numbers it's expected he will again take a pass. 

Key to the PPP polling of 555 registered voters via landline and text is the Hispanic vote. Biden receives a solid 57 percent to Trump's 31. That is a bit below expectations for Biden but on the right track to get to 60 percent or more by the fall. 

Polling elsewhere has shown Hispanics drifting away from Biden but that is not the case here, probably because we are different. 

Hispanic households here do have a higher proportion of lower income residents but they also have a higher rate of land and home ownership. They also have deep roots in the economy as business owners as well as members of the the professional and political classes. 

All told, inflation and the economy are hurting Biden with Hispanics more in other states. His path here is easier.

(White voters give Trump 48 percent with 40 percent for Biden.)

Of course, the state's historic Democratic lean and antipathy toward Trump are also important factors. Only 38 percent of voters here approve of Trump while Scranton Joe's approval rating is 44. That's low but not devastatingly so and more than enough compared to his GOP rival. 

We don't have the gender breakdown but Biden leads Trump with women in all other polls as Trump leads with men. The sense is that women voters may be more animated in their support of Biden this time because of the national battle over reproductive rights that resonates in pro-choice New Mexico.

Hurting Trump is his limited appeal to independents. He only wins them 43 to 41, signaling weakness perhaps in suburban areas around ABQ that he needs to shore up. But this number will be closely watched by both sides for clues that the race is shifting. The resources it would take to boost Trump's share of independents as well as peeling off Democrats is substantial. 

Trump can continue to tease New Mexico as a possible playground but right now not enough of his playmates are here. 

The margin of error in the PPP survey is plus or minus 4.2 percent.

SICK LEAVE CONTROVERSY

Tuesday's blog take from ABQ watchdog Dan Klein on sick leave awards for top ABQ City Hall officials leaving their jobs brought a number of comments. Reader Terry Storch writes:

Joe, Klein's tone of moral indignation was a bit much. The issue is violation of the Merit Ordinance Rules, which appears to be an unfair and outdated regulation; the actual outcome likely is less troublesome. Under the city system, every hour of sick leave is forfeited if you have not accumulated 500 hours of it—that is roughly 12 weeks of work. In many other places of employment, the employee is not monetarily punished for working hard but rather is allowed to cash out all or some of those hours, and/or to apply them towards the final months to satisfy retirement requirements. The ordinance needs to be changed so employees have an incentive to not gobble through sick leave hours.

Klein responds:

Even if the administration thinks the law is wrong they should not be allowed to violate it without any repercussions.

Mayor Keller's office said: 

The Inspector General never said negotiating leave was illegal, just inconsistent with policy, and comparing that to the DWI scheme is like comparing oil and water. This is another subjective opinion from the OIG that wasn’t even approved by the Accountability in Government oversight committee, which oversees the OIG.

Klein responds: 

The OIG, like the State Auditor, cannot bring criminal charges, they can only do the audit, make it public and hope law enforcement authorities do their jobs. Mayor Keller can put this controversy to rest and instead of attacking the OIG publicly ask the AG, the DA or US attorney to investigate these unearned payouts. If Mayor Keller is so positive that nothing illegal was done he should demand they investigate and make their findings public.

Retired state government worker Arcy Baca writes from the North:

Joe, upon retirement sick leave is only paid after 600 hours are accumulated and only at half the hourly rate. Vacation can only be paid up to 200 hours at departure. If you had more you could donate to a sick worker or loose those hours. As state employees we all knew to save the 200 hours if you were planing on retiring because PERA checks could take up too a month to kick in! I lost over 600 hours of sick leave.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024