Joe Biden probably wouldn't have laid an egg in New Mexico in November but his withdrawal from the presidential race has enlarged the comfort zone for the state's Democrats who were starting to tear each other apart as the debate raged on over whether Biden should go or stay.
His decision stops in its tracks the wild speculation that blue New Mexico was about to flip. Here are the key takeaways:
--With Biden's endorsement of VP Kamala Harris, she is the likely nominee and should have no problem carrying New Mexico and its five electoral votes against Donald Trump
--Minorities now make up more than 60 percent of the state's population (Hispanics, Native Americans, Blacks and Asians) and many will welcome the chance to vote for the candidate who would be the first Black woman president.
--That is especially so in the progressive Democratic power centers of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. Her margins there should be traditional--which means high--and close out any chance for Trump to carry the state.
--That's not a bold prediction. Trump has already lost twice in New Mexico, despite both times teasing in the early months that he would devote resources here. His campaign never did.
--Biden carried New Mexico by 10.8 percent in 2020. He was ahead of Trump by 7 points the mid-June PPP poll. The race with Trump apparently became tied in recent days, according to internal Dem polls. But now we begin again. Expect Harris' polling to start with something near that 7 point lead over Trump. If it isn't, then look for the GOP and nervous Dems to get hopped up again.
--Abortion will be as big an issue as ever--especially in Bernalillo county--with Harris as the nominee and MLG having her back. That should help get Dem women to the polls.
--Harris will run into trouble in the Little Texas counties in the SE and elsewhere in rural New Mexico but there are not enough votes there to make up for the Dem totals in the aforementioned progressive counties.
--The first strike on Harris from the NMGOP was on one of their favorite issues:
Kamala Harris would be just as ineffective as President as she was in her role as the so-called Border Czar. What is clear is Republicans in New Mexico and nationwide are strongly united and enthusiastic about electing President Trump and every Republican up and down the ballot to get our state and country back on a prosperous and secure path."
--It is the sensitive race and gender issue that will be closely watched for in the rural areas.
MLG and HARRIS
--The VP officiated at MLG's 2022 wedding at the VP's house. They are friends and while Biden's team rejected her, her chances of securing a post with Harris would be expected to be good.
--But as of early Sunday evening MLG still had not endorsed Harris even as all three of NM's Dem representatives gave her the nod.
--MLG endorsed Harris late Monday morning
--Also, the state Democratic Party, including Chair Velasquez, was pushing Harris forward:
The Democratic Party Executive Officers comprised of Chair Jessica Velasquez, Vice Chair Manny Crespin, Treasurer Rayellen Smith and Secretary Isaac Dakota Casados support Kamala Harris for President. The Officers join President Biden, all five members of New Mexico’s Democratic Congressional delegation, the Association of State Democratic Committees, and fellow Democrats around the country in proud support of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign for President. “As a key part of such an incredibly productive term in the White House, we believe no one is better equipped to succeed President Biden and lead the Democratic ticket than the other half of the Biden-Harris Administration, Vice President Kamala Harris.
--There is already one New Mexican in the cabinet--Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland--who can expect to be retained by a President Harris (but we don't know) and that might exclude MLG from a cabinet post, but there are plenty of other enticing gigs for a Governor looking for a one way ticket to DC.
--While Lujan Grisham did not immediately endorse Harris for the nomination, she said this about Biden:
Americans owe President Biden an immense debt of gratitude for his strong, resolute leadership over the past three-and-a-half years. His stellar record includes guiding Americans out of a deadly pandemic, presiding over a historic economic recovery, and restoring dignity and respect to the Oval Office. President Biden also has done more for New Mexicans during a single term than any president in history. His administration’s support of childcare and early childhood education initiatives in our state will improve New Mexicans’ lives for many years to come. . .This decision will ensure President Biden’s rightful place as one of the most successful––and selfless––presidents in U.S. history. . .I will do everything in my power to ensure that Donald Trump is denied another four years in the White House.
HEINRICH'S MANEUVER
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| Vasquez and Heinrich |
--The Heinrich camp is among those expanding their comfort zone. With BernCo presumably safely tucked away with Harris at the top of the ticket, Republican Nella Domenici is back to square one.
--Heinrich praised Biden as "one of the most effective, accomplished and successful leaders America has ever had" and then immediately endorsed Harris. He said:
Vice President Kamala Harris is an extraordinary leader with a proven track record of getting things done. As her colleague, I saw her commitment to fighting for working families up close. Her dedication to protecting our fundamental rights and freedoms, along with her tireless advocacy for justice, equality, and economic opportunity for all Americans, is second to none. Her experience, vision, and unwavering resolve make her the ideal candidate to unite our party and lead our nation forward. I’m proud to support her candidacy and confident she will bring our country together and build a brighter future for everyone. Let’s get to work.
--Vasquez still has a fight because the gender-race vote in the rural areas of his southern district may be more prone to look to Trump and Vaquez' GOP challenger Yvette Herrell. Vasquez will balance that out in BernCo and Dona Ana but the race is still in play.
--Vasquez immediately endorsed Harris:
President Biden gave a lifetime of distinguished service to the country we love. I commend the President for his decades of serving Americans and serving working people, not CEOs and corporations. I commend his decision to step out of the race and put his country first. We must now come together as a nation to defeat MAGA extremists, like Donald Trump and Yvette Herrell, who have attacked our fundamental freedoms, chief among them reproductive rights. Vice-President Kamala Harris is the leader who can bridge the divide in our country and move our nation forward.
Herrell attacked Vasquez:
If Joe Biden is unfit to run for president, he is most certainly not fit to BE president. I hope Gabe Vasquez will join me in calling for Biden to also step down as President of the United States. Our great nation cannot afford to have a leader incapable of handling the rigors of the most important job in the world!
ABQ area Rep. Melanie Stansbury endorsed Harris this way:
--In the north US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez came with praise for Biden and an endorsement of Harris:
President Biden is a transformational President whose legacy will benefit generations to come. He reinvigorated manufacturing in America, created 15.7 million jobs, and fought for reproductive rights. He was the first president ever to successfully negotiate with big pharma companies to lower prescription drug prices.” “The fight to uphold our democratic values is a relay, and Vice President Kamala Harris, with her strong record of leadership, will take the baton in stride and lead us to victory in November.
--Sen. Ben Ray Lujan celebrated Biden and endorsed Harris:
America needs a strong leader to accept the torch from President Biden so that we can continue to deliver for the American people. Vice President Kamala Harris is that leader. Her wisdom, experience, and commitment to public service proves that she will be an effective leader in the White House. Kamala is brilliant, good-hearted, and truly cares about the well-being of America’s families and children. There’s a reason why President Biden chose her to be by his side during his Administration — she’s ready to lead. I officially endorse Kamala Harris for President and I’m looking forward to helping elect our first female President in November.
--NM pollster Brian Sanderoff has long pointed out that the presidential candidate has influence on the legislative races way down the ballot. Our insiders say there appear to be about 10 competitive legislative seats on the November ballot. With Harris presiding over a unified party, that could help the Dems in tight races.
MLG IMPLOSION
Here's the money quote from one of our Alligators about the state of the governorship of New Mexico in the aftermath of MLG's legislative collapse.
Joe, to quote the Boss, "It's a death trap, a suicide rap." She's pretty much dead in the water unless she can swim back to shore with a peace pact clenched between her teeth. Even then it will never be the same. Not after that over-the-top tongue lashing she gave the legislators right after they ditched her crime agenda and adjourned after just a few hours of the special session.
Theoretically the lame duck portion of a Guv's second term begins after the general election coming two years before her term expires. In MLG's case she expedited the process by half a year and now is so lame the doctors at Presbyterian are fitting her for a prosthetic leg
Even Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth, sometimes frowned on for being too obsequious toward the Fourth Floor, said it is time for a reset with the Guv:
There is no question that we're in a spot here, let me put it that way. What you're seeing is a very important rebalancing, I think, a separation of powers, and it's important to understand that we are equal branches of government. We certainly look forward to working with Gov. Lujan Grisham. We have done some terrific work together, and I hope we can continue to do that work.
Thanks, Peter, but that's probably still too obsequious for your legislative colleagues who were literally belittled by MLG when she called them an an "embarrassment" for not giving her what she wanted. Revenge is more the order of the day than a reset.
In case you missed it, here's the MLG statement about the special that started the funeral dirge going for the remainder of her tenure:
This legislature just demonstrated that it has no interest in making New Mexico safer. Not one public safety measure was considered. Not one, despite the bills having the backing of police chiefs, public safety unions, mayors, prosecutors, businesses, tribal leaders, crime victims and others who have seen firsthand the erosion of public safety that has deeply damaged the quality of life in our state. Today I visited a neighborhood that is being ravaged by dangerous activity and everyday petty crime. Families can’t walk in the park, employees are scared to go to work, and businesses are shuttering.
For the legislature to ignore these stark realities is nothing less than a dereliction of duty. The legislature as a body walked away from their most important responsibility: keeping New Mexicans safe. But it is noteworthy that a majority of Republicans would have passed many or all of these bills — they were blocked. The legislature should be embarrassed at their inability to summon even an ounce of courage to adopt common-sense legislation to make New Mexicans safer. For those of you who go home to the sound of gunshots, who see hypodermic needles in your parks, and the families desperate to get a loved one living on the street the help they deserve, I’m sorry that most of our elected officials didn’t even try. This was one of the most disappointing days of my career, and the public should be outraged. My promise to you is that I will not stop fighting to protect you and your families.
How about that pivot from the Democratic Guv to the minority Republicans--the same Republicans who wanted to impeach her over her Covid regulations? There may be short-term comfort for MLG there but no salvation.
THE CURSE
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| Richardson and Martinez (2010) |
MLG's implosion continues the tradition of the second term curse.
Governors Johnson, Richardson and Martinez also fell victim to the curse and finished their second terms in the polling cellar and with dismal relationships with the legislature. Now MLG.
Johnson went off the rails by coming out for legalizing drugs and vetoing one to many times the state budget. Lawmakers called themselves into "extraordinary session" to rebuke him and pass their own budget. He proceeded to wander in the political wilderness.
Richardson went dictator on the legislature in his second term and in response they adjourned a special session on him, leaving him standing with his unmentionable in his hand. Always the diplomat, he tried to make the peace but it didn't stick and he joined Johnson in the wilderness
Martinez, a former DA, always had strongman tendencies and pushed the legislature around like it was a baby in a carriage. She got her comeuppance when she hosted an infamous holiday pizza party featuring drunken behavior--including her own--as well as verbal badgering of the hotel staff. She was finished and left office with miserable poll numbers and numerous scandals hanging over her.
Now our current chief executive who has been chugging along with mildly favorable popularity ratings, but then goes nuclear by suddenly exclaiming that she has discovered a major crime wave has been underway since she took office and now she is really going to do something about it.
Believing their own press or falling for fantasy dreams of power are always the markers of our cursed governors.
They mistake the legislature's quiescence for weakness and poke the sleeping lion one too many times. Then the beast arises--like a co-equal branch of government--and takes one large bite into their prey. You know, like adjourning a special session called by the Governor so fast that the cafeteria staff doesn't have time to heat up the enchiladas.
FALLING FLAT
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| Joe Monahan |
Her intimidation tactics fell so flat in part because most of the 112 lawmakers do not face peril at the polls in the November election,
MLG grew up when New Mexico was a swing state with two reasonably strong parties. Now there is one strong party--the Democrats with a powerful progressive wing--and they settle their affairs at the June primary. The winner there invariably goes on to victory in November because the Republican party has come to resemble a confused Neanderthal on the way to extinction.
For a Governor losing leverage is like losing their voice. What it means in the serious world of government policy is that the Legislative Finance Committee and legislators who take an active interest in the arcane aspects aspects of lawmaking are going to be where the new ideas and programs percolate. And they will start with a rewrite of the Governor's failed special session agenda.
MLG will have veto power but even that is now diminished. If she tries, for example, to deprive legislators of their prized capital outlay, she could face veto overrides.
It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Governor wanted out during her first term but Team Biden did not cotton to her strong-arm approach and nixed a cabinet appointment. She was stranded.
Same for Big Bill when he was prepared to avoid the second term curse by securing a cabinet job with Obama. It didn't happen. He had to stay put.
Ditto for Martinez whose name became a national calling card for a time but no one ever called and the curse took hold.
MLG will persevere. She still commands a government of some 20,000 and has a voice on the national stage. But the salad days are over.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024