Is the southern congressional district race a true toss up? That the rematch between Republican Yvette Herrell and Dem Re.  Gabe Vasquez will be close is not in doubt. But the one and only public poll thus far of  the race--commissioned by the national Republicans and showing a 48 to 46 edge for Herrell--doesn't tell the whole story especially after all the national political turmoil of late.

In fact, one noted DC area pundit--Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball--now have the race rated "lean Democratic" and out of the toss up column. 

We' haven't seen a specific explanation of why Sabato does not rank the race a toss up as does the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, the other closely watched DC handicappers, but this statement from his most recent newsletter indicates the importance of the presidential contest in all the House districts:

The party that wins the presidency probably will end up winning the House majority too, although the margins in the House are so tight that a split outcome is not out of the realm of possibility. 

As we've previously pointed out the southern district that Biden ran and lost to Trump in 2020 is gone. A new redistricted seat is on the presidential ballot for the first time. If you take the borders of today's district and pit Trump and Biden against one another, Biden wins the seat by nearly 6 points, reversing Trump's 12 point win there in 2020 and perhaps Herrell's victory that year over her Dem rival.

The addition of VP Harris may be the key for Sabato and others seeing a slight tilt toward Vasquez. As a woman of color she is expected to run better than Biden would have in heavy Hispanic precincts in Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties where 50 percent of the total district vote is expected to come from.

Vasquez will face vigorous attacks from Herrell but his hole card will be that favorable outlook for Harris-- if it holds.

If the vice-president wins the district it will be more difficult for Herrell to prevail no matter how good of a campaign she runs. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

We wrote on the Monday blog that we would be with TJ Trout on KKOB radio that afternoon but that was the wrong date. Today is the correct date so join us at 5 p.m today for an hour of the very latest in La Politica.

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