Harris in NM (2023)

Some fresh polling in the New Mexico presidential and US Senate contests leave both races where they were before the historic tumult that occurred with President Biden stepping aside and VP Harris becoming the Democratic nominee who then named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. 

The new polling comes from a firm commissioned by The Telegraph newspaper in London and confirms what most longtime observers say is the current trend--Harris is is on course to win the state's five electoral votes and Heinrich is on track to secure a third six year term in the Senate 

The firm, Redfield and Wilton, whose surveys are also being carried by Newsweek, conducted the poll from July 31-August 3, well after Biden made his July 21 decision to withdraw and before Harris named Gov. Tim Walz to the ticket. 

The number of likely voters interviewed in New Mexico was 585. The survey here was part of a ten state poll of possible presidential swing states where the firm says "8,229 swing voters" were interviewed.  The political site 538 ranks the firms accuracy at 1.8 stars out of 3.0

With that pointed out, Harris leads Trump in the state by seven points, 44 to 37 percent with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting 8 percent. Undecideds were at 8 percent and other candidates received one percent. 

In a June 13-14 PPP poll among 555 likely voters, Biden beat Trump 48 to 41, the same seven point margin Harris wins in The Telegraph poll.

That NM percentage for Kennedy is the highest among the 10 states surveyed and appears to speak to the enduring popularity of the Kennedy family among Hispanic New Mexicans, especially in the north. 

However, support for third party candidates traditionally peaks in the summer and then begins to fall. An educated guess would put Kennedy's ultimate showing at about half of his 8 percent support in this poll.

The Telegraph poll gives Harris a 41 percent approval rating in New Mexico and a 42 percent disapproval rating. 

Biden's NM approval rating in in the July 31-Aug. 3 poll was 41 percent and disapproval was 45 percent, slightly worse than VP Harris.  

While Harris and Biden both beat Trump in the polling by seven points, there was an internal Dem poll following the Biden debate disaster that pointed to New Mexico being in play in the race and prompted MLG to express concern. Shortly after Biden withdrew from the race. 

No Republican presidential candidate has carried New Mexico since 2004 and currently all statewide executive offices are held by the Democrats as well as both chambers of the legislature, the governorship and the five seats on the state Supreme Court. 

Trump has twice lost the state decisively in 2016 and 2020. But Hispanic support for Biden/Harris has been a concern for the Democrats.

The state continues to track more progressive with heavy emphasis on social issues such as abortion and climate change and leaving behind bread and butter issues important to working class voters.  

HEINRICH VS. DOMENICI

Heinrich polls at 40 percent to Domenici's 34 percent. A large 21 percent say they they are undecided; 3 percent say they won't vote if Domenici and Heinrich are the candidates and 1 percent said they would vote for other candidates. 

In the June 13-14 PPP poll Heinrich received 47 percent and Domenici 40 percent and 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent.  

In a July poll sponsored by Republicans that Heinrich is using to raise money from, he leads Domenici 41 to 38. His fundraising missives repeatedly call the race "competitive" but that view is not yet shared by the major DC handicappers who all rate the race solid or safe Democratic. 

Still, Heinrich continues to be a late closer with anemic numbers for an incumbent at the start of his race. 

Domenici has come with $1.5 million of her personal money for her campaign but she has not blanketed the state with the heavy messaging that might move her numbers in advance of the fall campaign.

No Republican has been elected to the US Senate from NM since Domenici's father, Sen. Pete Domenici, won a re-election bid in 2002. 

No sitting US Senator has been defeated for re-election here since 1982 when Democrat Jeff Bingaman beat Republican Jack Schmitt.  

ABORTION UPHEAVAL 

Domenici is getting some good news. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NSRC) has come into the came into the state with a TV buy on her behalf that brings a new spin to the abortion debate. 

Campaign operatives report the ad buy is for "several hundred thousand." That does not yet signify that the race will be targeted by the national GOP with much greater funding. Far from it. But the ad buy does test the waters to see if this could be fertile ground for an upset in the fall.

Here's the new Domenici abortion ad and here's the transcript.

Family Planning (and) giving birth are some of the most important issues a woman has to deal with and New Mexico has already decided its policy. I oppose any federal ban. Abortion should be safe legal and rare. Women should be trusted respected and babies should be loved and wanted. We need to do a much, much better job of helping women have the best education access and the best choices available to them. I'm Nella Domenici. I approved this ad.