The near death experience delivered to their presidential and US senate candidates in the first '24 ABQ Journal poll has Republicans wondering what it will take to get back to the winner's circle or even on its edge. The answer, according to a mix of GOP loyalists we've  heard from, is a lot. Here's a list:

--Trump will have to go away before the NMGOP can really rebuild. His appeal in the cities is limited and the need for a different national leader is apparent. But if he wins in November he's going nowhere and that will complicate GOP chances in Blue New Mexico.

--Abortion must also go away. Women remain on the march over reproductive rights, boosting enthusiasm and turnout in a majority Democratic state that is crushing the opposition party. 

---Fresh faces to carry the party banner, preferably more Hispanic faces. The R boosters point to Nicole Chavez, their District 31 ABQ House candidate, as a future template even though she was defeated in her first legislative outing. She lost a family member to murder and brings the crime issue to the fore which is generally a winning issue for the GOP. (Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is the Dem candidate in District 31.  

--Speaking of crime, GOP wise men say somehow the public must become more galvanized over the issue. Ditto for the economy and jobs. If those two issues could dominate the narrative, they believe their chances would rise. 

--With Trump and Nella Domenici on the canvas, GOP worriers say concentrate resources on legislative races. The state House lost three conservative Dems in the primary. Now it's up the GOP to counter more progressive politics.

--Conservatives, not necessarily Republicans, say the way out of the wilderness is to put some points on the board next year in the races for mayor of ABQ and Santa Fe where ongoing crime waves continue to shock the senses. In 2021 ABQ Republicans backed a conservative Democrat for mayor in hopes of turning the tide. They may do so again.

--Redistricting. R's argue the 2021 redrawing of congressional and legislative districts is a large reason for the pickle they are in. They are looking all the way to 2031 for a reprieve when the districts are drawn again, but they will have to have a Republican governor to get a break.

NELLA'S DILEMMA

Domenici

It's not impossible for Nella Domenici, but becoming a Wall Street multimillionaire was a breeze compared to what she now faces in winning the open Senate seat. 

Her 38 percent showing versus Sen. Heinrich's 50 percent in the ABQ Journal survey threatens her fund-raising and could force her to dip further into her large personal fortune which she has already tapped to the tune of $1.5 million. 

More important, the race appears gone unless she can force some kind of error out of Heinrich. But his inner circle is probably advising him to spend the rest of the campaign out of the country and let them handle the rest.

Heinrich is not blowing the doors off. History says Domenici will be on the move more than him in the coming weeks as undecideds come to her.

She is not a forlorn candidate by any means and reaching the base GOP/conservative vote of around 45 percent is very possible. That's getting closer to the top of the mountain. The problem remains the five percent needed to take the summit--if she makes the leap to 45.

One question being asked in light of Domenici's inability to dent Heinrich so far is whether she will pull a Ronchetti, meaning if she loses to Heinrich will she turn around and run for another office as TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti did following his 2020 US senate loss. 

History is not promising in that regard. Ronchetti also lost the 2022 race for Governor.

THE PROJECT

Apodaca

Whether the NM Project will have to report their donors and expenditures remains up in the air but it appears the group could still be a presence in this campaign. 

An ABQ District Court judge recently ruled that the Project, founded by businessman Jeff Apodaca to advocate for issues of importance to Hispanic voters, must disclose who is giving the PAC funding. But Apodaca continues to argue that under federal guidelines the PAC is not required to do so.

Here's the reason the Project may still be involved in the campaign. 

There is a hearing set for next Monday to hear arguments on whether the PAC should get another hearing that would include witness testimony and not be held in contempt of court. Even if the judge rejects that request, and it's likely he will, the Project has said that it will appeal to the state Court of Appeals and if need be to the state Supreme Court  Court. The legal wrangling would allow the Project to continue advocating for issues and publicizing candidates who say they support those issues until a final resolution that would not come until well after the election. 

The PAC is not permitted to endorse candidates but that's what the State Ethics Commission says they are doing and filed the complaint against the Project that is now in the courts. 

Apodaca says the legal fight has hampered his fundraising. Still, he is confident there will be enough business-oriented donors to send a moderate message on jobs, healthcare and other issues into close state legislative races that are seen as close.  

THE BOTTOM LINES

 In our first draft Monday we reported that the Dems need the Rep. Vasquez seat to keep the majority in the US House. The Dems are in the House minority. They need the Vasquez seat to help take the majority. Also, the undecided in the US Senate race is 9 percent not 12 percent.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.