Not again? Yes, again. The simplest of queries from the ABQ Journal questionnaire could once again deliver game-changing results in a state legislative race, and this time it would very likely mean that Bernalillo County--the state's largest--would have zero GOP members in the state House of Representatives. 

The mini-quake was set off when it was reported that GOP House District 31 hopeful Nicole Chavez, seeking to replace retiring GOP State Rep. Bill Rehm, gave herself credit for a college degree she did not have on her 2022 general election Journal questionnaire. She listed a nonexistent "B.S., business administration."

And she compounded her problems with this:

Chavez was more specific on the ivoterguide.com website. She said she received a bachelor’s degree in 2019 from Capella University, an online school based in Minneapolis. More contradictions are found on Chavez’s LinkedIn social media page. Chavez lists bachelor’s degrees from both Capella University and Walden University, another online school headquartered in Minneapolis. The degree from Walden, she wrote, was conferred only last month. All of her claims were false. 

Scrambling to overcome a Democratic challenge from Vicky Estrada-Bustillo, Chavez came with this that about her claim of having a degree:

I listed it because I was on target to graduate end of summer but because of this campaign and having a full time career, I had to push out my last classes to another semester,” she wrote in a text message. “I have been working on this degree slowly for years while working a full time job, raising my children and advocating for victims across the state because this is a very important personal goal for me to complete.

Estrada-Bustillo, 63, and retired from the US Forest Service, came with this zinger in response to Chavez's claims:

When you received a college degree is not something you forget. I can tell you exactly when I got my master’s degree in forestry,” Estrada-Bustillo said. (It was in 1993, from Stephen F. Austin State University).

Chavez, who lists her employment as Director of Sales, Outreach, and Retention for Presbyterian Health Plan, is also dealing with a residency question:

When she ran and lost for the District 28 House seat in ABQ in 2022 against Dem Pamelya Herndon, she attested on candidate forms that she lived in that district. But in the 2024 primary election Journal questionnaire she says she has lived in District 31 for eight years.

IVEY-SOTO ANALYSIS

Chavez's race was already tight before the questionnaire mishap, according to insider polling. Now the outcome may swing on how undecided voters assess Chavez's character including her integrity.

ABQ Dem state Senator and attorney Daniel Ivey-Soto, both a winner and a loser in elections and who we've enlisted to help cover the final campaign stretch, comes with this analysis:

Joe, registration in House District 31 is 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent. I think the party vote is probably dug in in but a message to undecided independents over the questionnaire flap could impact this race. 

A Republican loss could mean the Democrats in Bernallio County sweep every state House race for the first time in memory. Also, the Republicans have only one state Senate seat based here. A Chavez loss ould further hurt the party's rebuilding effort as well as depriving ABQ a GOP voice in the House.

Ivey-Soto points out that there are no other Bernalillo County races where the GOP has a good shot of picking up a seat and making up for a Chavez defeat should it occur. 

CURSE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE

Chavez, 48, broke onto the political scene when she became an anti-crime activist in the wake of the murder of her 17 year old son. She joins a long line of candidates who have not been truthful in their answers to the newspaper's questionnaire. 

Just last year ABQ City Councilor narrowly escaped defeat when she misstated her educational credits on the Journal questionnaire. Republican Bassan’s mishap was not as serious as Chavez's. She said she had a bachelor's degree in criminal justice when she had only an associate degree. Still, she only eked out her re-election bid by 153 votes or 1.4 percent. 

For some reason not all of the new generation of candidates has learned any lessons from the last one. That lesson being that telling the truth will set you free and the opposite could put you in political prison.

DEBATE DAY

New Mexico's version of the Not Ready for Primetime Players is set to play out this afternoon. 

After first scheduling the US Senate debate between Republican Nella Domenci and Sen. Martin Heinrich for the prime time hour of 7 p.m., KOAT had to reschedule because the ABC Network has decided to air more Monday Night Football games this season--starting with tonight's contest between the Jets and Bills at 6:15 p.m.

That last minute change had the station sending the debate back to today's 4:30 p.m. start time. Also, the Heinrich campaign confirms the debate will be pre-taped this afternoon--not aired live--cutting some of the edge from the event. 

Nevertheless, the debate will go on for one hour and offer underdog Domenici a chance to try to turn around a race she trails in by double digits. But Heinrich will counter her attacks on him over inflation, crime and the border with his own hits over her refusal to say whether she will vote for Trump, her abortion stance and Project 2025.

Nella's supporters will have statewide watch parties, including in ABQ at State GOP headquarters. 

Heinrich's boosters will gather to watch at ABQ's O'Niell's Pub on Central Ave. 

This won't be the last debate chance for Domenici. The candidates have one more scheduled on Sunday October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. It will be televised live on KOB-TV but it occurs at 11 in the morning. It seems our Not Ready for Prime Time Players are destined to stay that way. 

As for the importance of tonight's debate to the outcome of the election, we get this: 

Debates below the presidential level have only rarely mattered, and they matter even less today,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic operative. “In the past, debates have offered an opportunity to break through the noise and maybe have an outstanding moment on an important issue, but two can play at that game and the other side gets to talk too in every debate.” “The upside of the potential to break through is offset by the potential for the other guy to break through,” Karp said.

 DONA IRWIN

Former conservative Dem State Rep. Dona Irwin of Deming has died. She served from District 32 from 1999-2017. Gov. Lujan Grisham said:

I had the privilege of working alongside Dona Irwin for many years. (She was) a stalwart advocate for children, families, and rural communities. She was especially skilled at connecting our agricultural heritage with educational opportunities, especially through her work with the Cooperative Extension Service. . . Long before universal meals and healthy cooking became national priorities, Dona was working to bring healthy meals and community gardens to senior centers across rural New Mexico. Her visionary leadership improved the lives of so many in our state.

Dona Irwin was 92.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.