Opportunity is staring New Mexico Republicans in the face. Will they seize the moment? 

That's the story line emerging from this year's polling of state elections, with the latest presidential results confirming that an oversized number of Hispanic voters are drifting away from the Democrats.

In the ABQ Journal Oct. 10-18 poll in which VP Harris leads Trump 50 to 41 percent, Hispanic support for the GOP nominee is at or near an historic high of 41 percent. 

VP Harris is making up for this slack in majority-minority New Mexico with Anglo women voters, many of them animated by the abortion issue. Says the poll:

Donald Trump has clearly made inroads with Hispanic voters, but despite that, Kamala Harris has done quite well among Anglo voters to largely offset that.

It is the economic unease and perhaps some backlash against a too woke Dem party that has some Hispanics, usually a loyal Democratic bloc, moving away.

This Hispanic drift probably won't make much of a difference in the presidential race, although Harris is polling worse than Biden did in the state at this point in the campaign. Biden received 54 percent to Trump's 41 in the Journal's Oct-23-28, 2020 survey.

Ditto for Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez whose 51 percent Hispanic polling support is on the low side (Yvette Herrell gets 40) but he also seems to be making it up with women voters. But that race could get even closer if the late voter shift is toward Trump. He leads by just four in the Journal poll and Herrell came with an abortion spot to try to peel off some women.

OUTSIDE THE BOX

But what does this drift mean for the future of state politics. Or a better question would be, what can it mean? 

If the GOP starts thinking outside the box it could mean the start of a desperately needed turnaround.  Here are several ideas offered free of charge to our forlorn GOP friends:

--In the '25 session of the Legislature make your centerpiece legislation a proposal eliminating the state income tax on households making less than $45,000 a year. Why $45K? Because it is those customers McDonald's is targeting with its $5 value meals, reporting that they are the consumers hurting most from inflation. And many of those hamburger and french fry lovers happen to be people of color.

The tax cut could be easily afforded. Heck, with our state's oil boom savings we could buy a foreign country. But for the worry warts, pass the tax cut and put a sunset on it of five years in case oil prices go into a prolonged slump.

Second, sponsor a bill to repeal all state taxation on Social Security income. (Yes, we've kinda changed our mind on this one). Lawmakers have done that for singles making less than $100,000 and households under $150,000. Even though this cut would benefit the more affluent, the messaging for the GOP--combined with the elimination of the state income tax--is sublime. 

Unclench your tight fists, GOP, and watch with wonder how it works.

Third, stop complaining about the Democratic Emerge group that recruits solid candidates and organize a Republican version. That way there are able and fresh faces instead of GOP candidates like we've seen this year that lie on the newspaper's questionnaire or appallingly ask voter forgiveness for beating up their wife in front of a liquor store and leaving her with a purple eye and spitting blood from her mouth. Really.

So will the GOP stop staring at the opportunity and start acting? They don't have anything to lose. They've already lost everything here.

TRAIL DUST 

By our estimate the election is over for about 17 percent of the expected voters.

The SOS reported Monday that so far 155,660 ballots have been cast early including this past Saturday, the kick-off for widespread in-person early voting which always draws a big crowd. 

With our expected total turnout at 900,000 that represents the aforementioned 17 percent of voters who can now relax. Unfortunately they still have to watch all those TV ads during their favorite programs. All the statewide early turnout numbers released Monday are here. . . 

From the SOS:

The Secretary of State’s Office has created an election misinformation fact check page at NMVOTE.ORG/Rumor. The Office also provides information and resources to educate voters about the potential risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), deepfakes, and their potential impact on the manipulation of election information. These resources can be accessed at SOS.NM.GOV/AI. . .

Today is the final day to request an absentee ballot for the Nov. 5 election. The link to do that is here.  

DAY IN THE LIFE

MLG on rising and shining:

I typically wake up around 6:30. I get up and I make a beeline for hot coffee. I drink coffee until I’m asleep — cold, hot, lukewarm. I don’t typically eat breakfast. We have a little space downstairs, and I try to work out around 7:15. 

I work out with a girlfriend and we do it via video with a trainer. He makes me do weight training for good bone health, which is what women my age, and frankly women of all ages, should do. I’d like to do it two or three times a week, but these days it’s once or twice a month.

The Guv says bedtime is midnight to 2 A.M. Well, that explains the coffee.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.