Our Election Eve Special kicks off at 5 p.m. today. Hear it at KANW 89.1 FM and at kanw.com.

The suspense of New Mexico Campaign '24 will be resolved quickly if Donald Trump is elected tomorrow night but if VP Kamala Harris wins, the suspense will only be beginning.

That's because if Harris makes it to the White House the state could very likely see a new Governor take the helm here next year. 

Also, for  the first time in history, three New Mexicans could conceivably serve together in a presidential cabinet. (Heck, two would be a record.)

While the outcome of the major races here remains quite predictable as the state continues to wade in a sea of blue, the question of the state's future leadership is essentially on the ballot.

Gov. Lujan Grisham continues to earn mentions that she is bound for a high-level position--possibly the cabinet--in the administration of a President Harris:

Biden vetted the New Mexico governor for the Health and Human Servies post four years ago, so she is well known to Harris’ team and a friend of the vice president, who officiated her 2022 wedding and initially considered her as a potential running mate. Her experience serving as New Mexico’s health secretary before her election to Congress aligns with a Cabinet post at HHS, and her outspokenness on reproductive rights since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has echoed Harris’ own speeches on the matter.

Not only is MLG a possible cabinet pick under Harris but former southern NM US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Agriculture, is now seen by the crystal ball gazers as a top contender to become Secretary of Agriculture should Harris prevail. 

And Mike Connor, a native of Taos Pueblo who leads the US Army Corp of Engineers, is a possible Harris pick for Secretary of Interior should Sec. Deb Haaland leave and launch a '26 Guv run and/or be replaced by Harris. About him:

An old hand in policy circles around Washington, Connor held the No. 2 spot at Interior during the Obama administration and was a runner-up for the top Interior spot under Biden.

THE XTS FILE

Torres Small

Torres Small, raised in Las Cruces, has been a rising star in state politics from the start. Smart, able and charismatic, the Democrat was unable to hold on to the then conservative southern congressional district for more than one term. But her talent won her the job of Deputy Secretary of Agriculture under Biden. 

Her expertise in rural issues, experience on the Hill and becoming the first woman of color to be Secretary of Agriculture puts her at the top of possibles, according to the DC chattering class. 

There's no disagreement here. We would add that if there were to be a vacancy in one of our US Senate positions, she would also belong at the top of that list of possible replacements.

HOWIE'S SUSPENSE

The suspense for Lt. Governor Howie Morales is 20 on a scale of 10 as he would become the state's next Democratic Governor should MLG depart. He is mostly an unknown to the New Mexican public, having been below the radar for the nearly six years he has served with MLG.

Whether he would seek the governorship in his own right in '26 is unknown but as a former state senator from the Silver City area, he is a creature of the legislature who could have better luck with lawmakers than the Governor has had of late. But the flash take from the Roundhouse Wall-Leaners is that Morales could be in danger from a legislature freed from MLG and that could run roughshod over him. 

What agenda Morales, a professional educator, would pursue as the state continues to pile up mammoth reserves from the energy boom is unknown. That's what makes for more suspense--if Harris wins.  

TRUMP AND NM

President Trump had no New Mexicans in his cabinet during his term and no local GOP names appear to be circulating as possibles should he be elected tomorrow night. 

But Trump's first term as president was not hurtful to the state. And when it came to the military-industrial complex--the military bases and Sandia and Los Alamos National Labs--their budgets grew robustly as well as their employment,

Bizarre rumors that the conservative Project 2025 plan could mean major cutbacks to the nonnuclear portion of the labs' budgets does not hold up under scrutiny.

Such lab cuts would require both White House and congressional approval even as support for their work today is at a bipartisan high point. 

Again, Trump's record as president lends no credence to the scare and no congressional representatives who deal with national security have raised the matter of budget slashing.

Ditto for the state's bases including ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base, home to 23,000 employees, many active military. A shutdown scare in the 90's was thwarted and there hasn't been another since. The standing of Kirtland remains sturdy. While a shutdown scare last year at at Cannon AFB in Clovis did mean some cutbacks, the base came out strongly positioned to continue its mission indefinitely. 

As usual, New Mexico has much to worry about in its own backyard including an ABQ crime wave that now appears to be spreading to our state capitol but the state's financial position in Washington--no matter who controls the presidency--appears positive on the cusp of a presidential election that been gripping and grueling.

FINAL PREZ POLLING

A final batch of polling in the NM presidential race is out and reinforces the view that VP Harris will be the fifth Democratic nominee in a row--dating back to 2008--to win the race for the White House here.

SurveyUSA reports their poll from Oct. 28-31 has Harris leading Trump 50 to 44 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent. 

The firm says that "among men, Trump leads by 6 points; among women, Harris leads by 18, a 24-point gender gap."

Their September survey had it 50 to 42 for Harris.

The mid-October ABQ Journal poll had Harris at 50 and Trump at 41. Other candidates had 5 percent and only 4 percent were undecided.  

Trump visited ABQ Oct. 31, the final day of the SurveyUSA poll and if he is getting a bump that could help him improve on his 2020 performance when he lost the state to Biden by 10.79 percent. 

Harris has been running slightly weaker in the NM polling than Biden did four years ago as Trump's performance with Hispanics, especially male Hispanics, is stronger this time.

VOTER TURNOUT

Voters like to vote early and they did it again this election, if not quite as much as 2020 when Covid kept folks away from the voting booths and preferring mail-in ballots. 

Early voting ended Saturday and the SOS reports 663,874 votes have been cast before Election Day this time. 

As usual, the majority Dems voted most with 46.2 percent of the total followed by the GOP with 36.6 and independents with 15.8 percent. 

We expect around 261,000 voters to go to the polls tomorrow to make the total presidential vote reach around 925,000 or close to 68 percent of the 1.377 million registered voters which is the percentage turnout we had in 2020. 

If so, that would mean early votes would comprise about 70 percent of all votes for president. (Final total turnout will be higher because not everyone votes for president.)

OUR ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

Join us for our live Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com when we dare our panel to make risky predictions about the key races up for grabs tomorrow. 

That's always fun and the predictions are usually spot on. But if any of the predictors run afoul, the boo birds will greet them on Election Night. 

Our guests include ABQ state Senators Daniel Ivey-Soto and Jerry Ortiz y Pino, ABQ Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and the dean of the state capitol political press corp, Dan Boyd of the ABQ Journal. 

So join the fun of Campaign '24 and drop by KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com today at 5 p.m. and of course tomorrow night--Election Night--for our wall-to-wall coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. 

Thanks for tuning in. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.