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A crime beat that never seems to pause; a continued flow of fentanyl; 100 murders a year; APD mired in an historic bribery scandal sapping police morale and public confidence; a downtown still downtrodden; a Nob Hill that can't find its economic footing; a freeway system that appears to have been ceded to F-1 racers and a growing homeless problem.

Yes, there's a wheelbarrow full of issues for wanna be ABQ mayors to campaign on as the page turns on Election '24 and the '25 mayoral battle creeps closer.

Last Tuesday's mayoral elections on the West Coast have certainly grabbed the attention of Mayor Tim Keller as he prepares to campaign for an unprecedented third consecutive four year term. 

Rejections of progressive mayors in San Francisco and Portland could be an early warning for him as a more conservative environment envelopes the nation with the election of Donald Trump. 

In San Francisco:

Mayor London Breed conceded her quest for a second full term after Daniel Lurie, a nonprofit founder and Levi Strauss heir, held on to a steady lead through 14 rounds of ranked-choice voting. . .Lurie pitched himself as an outsider, betting that his lack of experience would be more boon than burden during a deeply unsettled time for the city. It paid off. With his victory, residents appeared to be sending a resounding message: They were so fed up with the status quo that the best person to address the city’s most dire problems was someone who has never held office. Lurie held 56 percent of the vote to nearly 44 percent for Breed, who has presided during a period of increased homelessness, public drug use and a downtown business exodus, all of which the pandemic supercharged.

And in Portland:

Voters elected political outsider Keith Wilson as their new mayor, following a campaign in which he capitalized on years of growing frustration over homeless encampments, open drug use and quality of life concerns. . .Wilson. . .ran on an ambitious pledge to end unsheltered homelessness within a year of taking office. The Portland native says he will accomplish this in part by increasing the number of nighttime walk-in emergency shelters. . . His message. . . resonated in a city where surveys. . .have shown homelessness as a top issue.  “It’s time to end unsheltered homelessness and open drug use, and it’s time to restore public safety in Portland. Voters aren’t interested in pointing fingers. They just want us to get things done.”He said.

There are early signs that Mayor Keller may try to paint ABQ's troubles as partly a perception problem, similar to what national Democrats tried with the economy but only to lose the White House and Congress.

Not that the city is in a bubble of entirely bad news. 

Innovative plans to revive downtown and reduce homelessness are in the works, including the eventual opening of the delayed and costly Gateway Center. Basic and vital city services such as water, garbage, road repairs and the Sunport seem satisfactory to the public. 

Still ABQ remains adrift, too riddled with crime, little population or economic growth and housing and rental prices continuing their climb (Nob Hill biz closures are a sign of that).

But it will be the bitter stew of crime served up to voters as the main course when the campaign commences in January for the November election. 

JUMPING IN 

Eddy Aragon

Conservative radio talk show host Eddy Aragon, 49, who ran for mayor in 2021 and finished third behind Keller and then-Sheriff Manny Gonzales but managed 18 percent of the vote, says he's coming back for another run.

He is a no longer a Republican but an independent, citing the failure of the divided NM GOP to put points on the election scorecard. 

He did not loudly support Trump this year as he did in 2020 but says Trump's election is a major reason for his comeback attempt:

Americans and New Mexicans value strong leadership, regardless of party affiliation. No one predicted that Trump would come within a few points of Kamala Harris in New Mexico (or) within a few points of Harris with the Hispanic vote nationwide. Hard times demand strong leaders. The hard times caused by the Biden/Harris and Keller administrations have made voters re-examine their voting habits. Is voting for a Democratic mayor worth our city being ranked worst in crime among America’s 50 biggest cities? Of course not. Albuquerque voters want a return to common-sense leadership that will end our city’s crime plague. 

Aragon's campaign also took aim at a favorite conservative target but a policy still popular in a Democratic city:

Keller’s declaration of Albuquerque as a sanctuary city in 2018. . .worsened Albuquerque’s immigration crisis and allowed the city to be overrun by violent drug gangs, leading to more than 1,600 tragic deaths from fentanyl during Keller’s two terms. 

The mayoral math has Keller's backers hoping at least one more conservative joins the race and splits up that vote as occurred in 2021 when Keller won a majority of Democrats and was elected with 56 percent of the vote. But Aragon is hoping that his candidacy will help clear out other conservatives from running.

The Mayor's hope for an easy glidepath could collide with his low approval ratings and the concerns over crime. Will those factors generate a serious Democratic challenge (or challengers) to the incumbent and give ABQ a spirited battle over its future?

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