The ABQ mayoral field is growing. The newest addition is former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and also includes Mayor Tim Keller, radio talker Eddy Aragon, former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo, Patrick Sais, who tried and failed to make the 2021 mayoral ballot, and retired firefighter Eddie Varela.

White says he will attempt to qualify for public financing as will Keller. If they do, their campaigns would each receive $756,000, a large amount for an election expected to draw 100,000 plus voters. 

Aragon says he will also seek public financing. Sais and Varela, 72, will also try but are seen as having little chance of succeeding. Candidate Armijo will not seek public financing. 

The magic number in the first found of voting November 4 is 50 percent. If a candidate reaches that level, they declare victory and avoid a run-off election a month later. If not, a run-off is held between the two top vote-getters.

In 2021 Keller beat Aragon and BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales by garnering 56 percent of the vote in the first round. 

2025 is creating a sense of deja vu, with Keller, 47, and Aragon, 50, running again and White, another conservative Republican and controversial Sheriff, taking the place of Gonzales (who ran in '21 as a Dem but is now an R.)

White launched his campaign with a two minute video devoted to lamenting the city's high crime rate with a side of homelessness throw in. He cited the 660 murders that have have occurred since Keller became mayor seven years ago. That's a stunning total but so far this year murders are dropping considerably.

APD reports five homicides in the first two months of the year, compared to 10 at the same time in 2024. If the rate stays low, it could soften the blows Keller will take as he seeks a third consecutive term.  

White outlines his platform on his web site, leaving little question that his will be an all-crime-all-the-time campaign. In a fund-raising letter he sent out before he officially announced, he highlighted his opposition to ABQ being a Sanctuary City as a key campaign plank:

One of Keller's first acts as Mayor was too make ABQ a Sanctuary City for illegal immigrants who commit crimes. Now we have case after case of violent crimes being committed by illegal immigrants, many of who have been arrested multiple times but turned back onto the streets by this Mayor's backward policies. As Mayor, I will end the Sanctuary City law immediately.

NO FREE PASS

Eddy Aragon

But White, 61, will not get a pass on the crime rate nor on the APD/SheriffDWI scandal or on his skills managing a police department.  His rivals are already busy pushing out White's record.

He was ABQ's Chief Public Safety Officer in charge of APD under GOP Mayor Richard Berry when in 2011 he was forced to to resign amid controversy over police shootings and a car accident involving his wife. The APD officers union gave him a vote of no confidence.

In 2010 White and other lawmen "trampled" through the home of noted attorney and police critic Mary Han who had been found dead in her car in her North Valley garage. The death was called a suicide but the cause was later changed to "undetermined. The AG at the time said the cause--which could have been murder--could not be definitely determined because of the botched police investigation.

During his time as sheriff from 2002-2008 the decades-long DWI scandal was operating with officers taking bribes that went undetected by White and other law enforcement leadership. 

When White was state Director of Public Safety under GOP Governor Gary Johnson he was an adamant foe of legalized drugs and resigned in protest when Johnson came out for legal pot. But when Susana Martinez became governor White supported legalized marijuana and benefited from a state license he was awarded to sell medical marijuana. 

In 2018 White's marijuana company donated $11,000 to the Guv campaign of Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. He has since sold his share of the company.

In 1999 the NM State Police Officers Association voted no confidence in White. They said he wasn’t doing enough to get State Police equipment and cars. White called the charges “ridiculous.” 

THE DONALD FACTOR

Hovering over this election, as he did in 2017, is Donald Trump. That presence helped Keller take the mayoral office that year with a landslide win in a run-off election against City Councilor Dan Lewis.  

Former ABQ city councilor, attorney and political consultant Greg Payne says Trump's large shadow could again impact the vote:

That will probably help Keller. Even though his polling numbers are low, none of the candidates is challenging his Democratic and progressive base. Even with enthusiasm for him not at previous levels,  many voters could decide to go for "the devil you know" rather than switching horses.

The simple math is that there are more Dems and Dem leaning independents than Republicans and right leaning indys. For Dems who do not want Keller, they have little alternative in the current field.

Trump did grow his vote percentages in the north in the 2024 election, but there was only a very slight uptick in his Bernalillo county performance where for a decade the vote has been trending heavy blue.

KELLER'S ODDS

Mayor Keller

The best bet for the anti-Keller crowd is to force him into third place in the initial election thus ending his political career. The odds of that are low, although in the past it has happened.

A run-off electon with any of his foes, including Armijo who is at best a nominal Democrat, might not be a lay-up for Keller but also not a very steep climb. 

The $755K in public money is difficult to qualify for (3,780 qualifying $5.00 donations) but Keller has the campaign machine to do it. Also, a PAC separate from Keller's campaign is expected to form giving him additional ammo to fend off the multi-candidate attack now forming against him.

It is uncertain if White and Aragon will be able to qualify for the public financing.  

And there is already battling between Republicans White and Aragon. Aragon attacks White as a "corrupt failure" and promises a "bloodbath" between them. He adds that White supporters lobbied him to get out of the race. Aragon received 18 percent of the vote in 2021.

City Hall Alligators report Keller briefly considered responding to White's entry into the race but  concluded it did not merit one. 

In a field with no stand-out candidate who could unite the anti-Keller sentiment, the race remains Keller's to lose. That may go against the expected odds but it is the mayoral math of 2025. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.