It's official.There will be seven mayoral candidates on the ABQ election ballot November 4. 

Here's where the contest stands with roughly four months to go:

--Democratic Mayor Tim Keller is poised for a first round victory but could face a December run-off election if he fails to reach 50 percent of the vote. 

Keller's chances of avoiding a run-off have actually gone up this month because none of the hopefuls opposing him qualified for $756,000 in public financing for their campaigns. But Keller has. 

Here's Dem consultant David Alcon:

It is possible that even in this crowded field Keller could reach that 50 percent mark if his opposition fails to raise substantial money. Besides the $756,000 in public money, there is an outside political committee collecting money for Keller. His total fund-raising could easily top $1 million. 

If the rest of the field can't compete financially, what was very unlikely could become reality--Keller could win a third term in the first round of balloting. 

THE CHALLENGERS 

Eddie Varela

The field of challengers is mostly unknown. 

Republican and former BernCo Sherrif Darren White has some name ID but he is loaded up with past political baggage and is hampered by a divided GOP. 

Back to Alcon: 

If there is a run-off White could be in it by finishing second but can he consolidate the GOP base vote? Even if he did, ABQ is heavily Democratic. He would likely lose a run-off in a landslide. That's what happened to Republican Dan Lewis when he faced Keller in 2017 when Keller won his first term. 

Complicating matters for White are other conservatives trying to bring Keller down. 

Retired firefighter Eddie Varela is campaigning openly as a Republican in the officially nonpartisan election and turned in the second highest number of qualifying signatures--right behind Keller. 

Independent candidate Daniel Chavez hired a well-known GOP consulting group to help him collect the 3,000 signatures needed to qualify for the ballot. He put up $100,000 in personal money to do it but has not yet shown an inkling to add more. Still, he is another conservative vying for votes.

Add to the conservative mix City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Sandoval Deputy County Manager Mayling Armijo. 

That's five candidates potentially splitting the bedrock anti-Keller vote.  

The only contender challenging Keller for Democratic progressive voters and similar-minded independents is former US Attorney Alex Uballez. His campaign stumbled badly in the opening days, losing key consultants and failing to qualify for public financing. But it is Uballez who still poises the most danger to Keller--if he can restart his campaign with robust fund-raising and more energy.

A Keller-Uballez run-off would have more potential for an upset than a Keller-White face off which would, as Alcon said, likely be a layup for Keller.  

NOTHING COMING EASY

Mayor Keller

The failure of anyone but Keller to qualify for public financing is seen by some political veterans as the death knell for the mayoral race--that it is over before it has started. But there is time for a candidate to do the unexpected and pull away from the pack. 

The key is obviously fundraising and reigniting voter discontent over crime and homelessness, two issues that have slowed Keller in public polling and that remain persistent.

To make Keller vulnerable his opposition will have to "denationalize" the race, arguing that what is happening in ABQ cannot and should not be rationalized away by similar problems in other cities. They must make an electorate that seems quiescent, if not apathetic, feel differently. 

Indicting Keller's leadership on public safety and offering a believable alternative will be essential.

It will be anything but easy. 

The lack of a major foe for Keller points to his effectiveness as a politician with a solid organization, his superior communication skills, his resistance to the narrative that the city's best days are behind it and his near constant introduction of new and interesting solutions--even if many have failed in the past eight years. Also, for the majority Democrats his leadership contrasts well with that of President Trump which also helped him in his 2017 election.

That's a lot of string for his opponents to unwind and the clock starts now.  

Joe Monahan began his journalism and blogging career in 1974, covering the first ABQ mayoral race conducted under the new City Charter. 

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