With a last in the nation ranking in the performance of its public schools, New Mexico is desperate for solutions. But one that repeatedly comes up is not cutting the mustard next door in Arizona and could have important lessons for New Mexico. From  ProPublica:

In 2022, Arizona pioneered the largest school voucher program in the history of education. Under a new law, any parent in the state, no matter how affluent, could get a taxpayer-funded voucher worth up to tens of thousands of dollars to spend on private school tuition, extracurricular programs or homeschooling supplies. In just the past two years, nearly a dozen states have enacted sweeping voucher programs similar to Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account system, with many using it as a model. 

Yet in a lesson for these other states, Arizona’s voucher experiment has since precipitated a budget meltdown. The state this year faced a $1.4 billion budget shortfall, much of which was a result of the new voucher spending, according to the Grand Canyon Institute, a local nonpartisan fiscal and economic policy think tank. 

Last fiscal year alone, the price tag of universal vouchers in Arizona skyrocketed from an original official estimate of just under $65 million to roughly $332 million, the Grand Canyon analysis found; another $429 million in costs is expected this year. As a result of all this unexpected spending, alongside some recent revenue losses, Arizona is now having to make deep cuts to a wide swath of critical state programs and projects, the pain of which will be felt by average Arizonans who may or may not have school-aged children. 

Among the funding slashed: $333 million for water infrastructure projects, in a state where water scarcity will shape the future, and tens of millions of dollars for highway expansions and repairs in congested areas of one of the nation’s fastest-growing metropolises — Phoenix and its suburbs. Also nixed were improvements to the air conditioning in state prisons, where temperatures can soar above 100 degrees. Arizona’s community colleges, too, are seeing their budgets cut by $54 million. . .

Beth Lewis, executive director of the public-school-advocacy group Save Our Schools Arizona, only a small amount of the new spending on private schools and homeschooling is going toward poor children, which means that already-extreme educational inequality in Arizona is being exacerbated. The state is 49th in the country in per-pupil public school funding, and as a result, year after year, district schools in lower-income areas are plagued by some of the nation’s worst staffing ratios and largest class sizes. Spending hundreds of millions of dollars on vouchers to help kids who are already going to private school keep going to private school won’t just sink the budget, Lewis said. It’s funding that’s not going to the public schools, keeping them from becoming what they could and should be.  

What about the performance of Arizona public schools? They continue to struggle, according to a Wallet Hub study just released:

Arizona ranked 49th in the nation in the study which considered dropout rate, standardized tests scores, high school graduation rate, teachers credentials, teacher-student ratio, amount of schools with a Blue Ribbon recognition, and their projected high school graduation rate increase between today and 10 years from now.

New Mexico ranks worst in the nation in the study, coming in 51st. The search goes on here for solutions but a voucher program has taken hold only in conservative circles in Santa Fe. 

CONFUSING INFO 

We had a blog item about NM third party presidential candidates Wednesday (since removed) that may have been confusing. Alex Curtas of the Secretary of State's office clarifies:

The Libertarian Party is qualified as a major party in New Mexico, and the Free New Mexico Party is a newly qualified minor party in New Mexico (following the June 27 filing day that also resulted in another new minor party, the Party for Socialism and Liberation).

There seems to be some intra-party fighting among state/national Libertarians and affiliated organizations that has resulted in a schism with their members. We don’t want voters to be potentially confused by the statements from the Free New Mexico Party on your blog. 

Lars Mapstead won New Mexico’s Primary Election in June and is the presumptive Libertarian Party presidential nominee (I say presumptive because the Libertarian Party follows major party rules and will be sending us their official nominee soon, just as the Democrats will be doing after their convention). 

Chase Oliver is the Free New Mexico Party presidential nominee. 

Our candidate portal has a full listing of all the candidates in the 2024 General Election.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

Cervantes and MLG

After a dramatic defeat of her crime agenda at last week's special legislative session MLG is doubling down on that agenda and taking her case to the public in a series of town hall meetings. 

The first one will be in the backyard of Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes who has been a key player in stopping the crimes bills she has proposed. Will he come under public fire from the Governor or those in attendance?

The Guv's office says:

Ensuring the safety and security of every New Mexican remains my top priority. The town hall in Las Cruces this Thursday is an opportunity to hear directly from New Mexicans grappling with the state's crime problem and collaborate as a community on effective strategies to enhance public safety statewide. . . Additional town hall events focused on public safety will be taking place around the state in the near future.

That public town hall is set for this Thursday at 5:30 p.m. at the Las Cruces Convention Center. It will stream on the Governor’s Facebook page. Additional town halls will be at Española and ABQ.

While showing that she still has public support for her swerve to the right on crime, the Governor's problem remains a legislature that has spoken overwhelmingly against her current approach.

The town halls may help her shore up public opinion which often warms to a tough on crime message but they will do little to persuade legislators to reverse course. 

And if she calls them back for another special session before the November election she would get the same response as she did at the first one--lawmakers adjourning without considering her bills.

The Governor had months to rally public opinion for her agenda and succeeded with conservative business groups and the newspaper but not with her own Democrats who hold the keys to the Roundhouse. 

This second effort is not going to change that but reshaping her bills through quiet conversations and compromise with lawmakers before the 60 day session starts in January might have the desired effect.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

MLG paused a day before giving a full-throated endorsement of the presidential candidacy of VP Kamala Harris but it did come late Monday morning. 

She posted her support on X, joining dozens of other Governors and congressional representatives and prompting renewed speculation that MLG could be out of New Mexico within a matter of months if Harris assumes the presidency. 

Besides citing the VP's credentials, the Guv posted an intimate photo of Harris officiating at MLG's wedding to Manny Cordova at the VP's DC home in 2022. 

That put an exclamation point on the rumors that this personal relationship could lead to a DC posting for MLG and a major change in state government. 

Instead of posting her praises for Harris on her official gubernatorial account, MLG chose her campaign account on X:

I've known Vice President Harris since we served in Congress together. She is a smart, conscientiousness and highly experienced public servant who is uniquely qualified to defeat Donald Trump. A former prosecutor, Vice President Harris is best equipped to make the case against convicted felon Donald Trump. 

She is our party's most effective voice in the fight to restore reproductive health care rights. I was honored to join her in 2022 when she visited Albuquerque to discuss strategies for protecting reproductive rights in the wake of the Dobbs decision, 

With her record of leadership on health care, economic opportunity, gun violence prevention and voting rights Vice President Harris will quickly mobilize key constituencies of the Democratic coalition, including young voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters and women. I am confident that Vice President Harris will win New Mexico and will win the presidential election this November 

The Governor pursued a cabinet post with President Biden but ran into opposition from his team and never made the cut. Now she could get a second chance--and perhaps a  better one--if Harris takes the White House. 

This potentially good news for her comes at the lowest point in her over six years as Governor, following a disastrous special session in which her relationship with the legislature appears to have been permanently damaged.  She may still have public sympathy for fighting for her crime agenda but its failure shrunk her political standing.

One Dem lawmaker of longstanding came with this take:

In state Dem circles the thinking is Michelle will take any position offered her at this point. Her effectiveness as Governor has evaporated, The special session was the final nail after bombing of her hydrogen plan, pretrial presumptions for detention, and repeated court losses on guns and spending authority. Some are saying this is beginning of the end for MLG, but it's actually a resounding end to all effectiveness. 

As we wrote Monday, MLG, whose term runs until the end of 2026, is one in a long line of governors to get waylaid in their second term, but that should not stop Harris from looking upon her favorably. 

The Governor has been a national leader on gun rights and reproductive rights. She is the first Hispanic Democratic Governor, a former congresswoman, a onetime state cabinet secretary, co-owner of a private business and an attorney. Her credentials are more than enough to pass any congressional test that could arise for a high-ranking post.

A spot in DC could not look better to her at this point. The alternative is two and a half more grim years in Santa Fe dealing with recalcitrant legislators and sticky issues like crime and CYFD that have eluded solution. 

To get to the promised political land the Governor and Harris must first jump over Donald Trump. 

No one is saying it will be easy.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

Joe Biden probably wouldn't have laid an egg in New Mexico in November but his withdrawal from the presidential race has enlarged the comfort zone for the state's Democrats who were starting to tear each other apart as the debate raged on over whether Biden should go or stay. 

His decision stops in its tracks the wild speculation that blue New Mexico was about to flip. Here are the key takeaways:

--With Biden's endorsement of VP Kamala Harris, she is the likely nominee and should have no problem carrying New Mexico and its five electoral votes against Donald Trump

--Minorities now make up more than 60 percent of the state's population (Hispanics, Native Americans, Blacks and Asians) and many will welcome the chance to vote for the candidate who would be the first Black woman president.

--That is especially so in the progressive Democratic power centers of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. Her margins there should be traditional--which means high--and close out any chance for Trump to carry the state.

--That's not a bold prediction. Trump has already lost twice in New Mexico, despite both times teasing in the early months that he would devote resources here. His campaign never did. 

--Biden carried New Mexico by 10.8 percent in 2020. He was ahead of Trump by 7 points the mid-June PPP poll. The race with Trump apparently became tied in recent days, according to internal Dem polls. But now we begin again. Expect Harris' polling to start with something near that 7 point lead over Trump. If it isn't, then look for the GOP and nervous Dems to get hopped up again.

--Abortion will be as big an issue as ever--especially in Bernalillo county--with Harris as the nominee and MLG having her back. That should help get Dem women to the polls.

--Harris will run into trouble in the Little Texas counties in the SE and elsewhere in rural New Mexico but there are not enough votes there to make up for the Dem totals in the aforementioned progressive counties.

--The first strike on Harris from the NMGOP was on one of their favorite issues: 

Kamala Harris would be just as ineffective as President as she was in her role as the so-called Border Czar. What is clear is Republicans in New Mexico and nationwide are strongly united and enthusiastic about electing President Trump and every Republican up and down the ballot to get our state and country back on a prosperous and secure path." 

--It is the sensitive race and gender issue that will be closely watched for in the rural areas.  

MLG and HARRIS

--Gov. Lujan Grisham's DC job chances would seem to be back in play if Harris wins the election. She lost out under Biden.

--The VP officiated at MLG's 2022 wedding at the VP's house. They are friends and while Biden's team rejected her, her chances of securing a post with Harris would be expected to be good. 

--But as of early Sunday evening MLG still had not endorsed Harris even as all three of NM's Dem representatives gave her the nod. 

--MLG endorsed Harris late Monday morning 

--Also, the state Democratic Party, including Chair Velasquez, was pushing Harris forward:

The Democratic Party Executive Officers comprised of Chair Jessica Velasquez, Vice Chair Manny Crespin, Treasurer Rayellen Smith and Secretary Isaac Dakota Casados support Kamala Harris for President. The Officers join President Biden, all five members of New Mexico’s Democratic Congressional delegation, the Association of State Democratic Committees, and fellow Democrats around the country in proud support of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign for President. “As a key part of such an incredibly productive term in the White House, we believe no one is better equipped to succeed President Biden and lead the Democratic ticket than the other half of the Biden-Harris Administration, Vice President Kamala Harris.

--There is already one New Mexican in the cabinet--Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland--who can expect to be retained by a President Harris (but we don't know) and that might exclude MLG from a cabinet post, but there are plenty of other enticing gigs for a Governor looking for a one way ticket to DC.

--While Lujan Grisham did not immediately endorse Harris for the nomination, she said this about Biden:

Americans owe President Biden an immense debt of gratitude for his strong, resolute leadership over the past three-and-a-half years. His stellar record includes guiding Americans out of a deadly pandemic, presiding over a historic economic recovery, and restoring dignity and respect to the Oval Office. President Biden also has done more for New Mexicans during a single term than any president in history. His administration’s support of childcare and early childhood education initiatives in our state will improve New Mexicans’ lives for many years to come. . .This decision will ensure President Biden’s rightful place as one of the most successful––and selfless––presidents in U.S. history. . .I will do everything in my power to ensure that Donald Trump is denied another four years in the White House. 

HEINRICH'S MANEUVER

Vasquez and Heinrich

--Senator Heinrich's divisive announcement Friday that Biden should get out of the race will now mostly be forgotten. The same for Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who also called for Biden to withdraw.

--The Heinrich camp is among those expanding their comfort zone. With BernCo presumably safely tucked away with Harris at the top of the ticket, Republican Nella Domenici is back to square one. 

--Heinrich praised Biden as "one of the most effective, accomplished and successful leaders America has ever had" and then immediately endorsed Harris. He said:

Vice President Kamala Harris is an extraordinary leader with a proven track record of getting things done. As her colleague, I saw her commitment to fighting for working families up close. Her dedication to protecting our fundamental rights and freedoms, along with her tireless advocacy for justice, equality, and economic opportunity for all Americans, is second to none. Her experience, vision, and unwavering resolve make her the ideal candidate to unite our party and lead our nation forward. I’m proud to support her candidacy and confident she will bring our country together and build a brighter future for everyone. Let’s get to work.

--Vasquez still has a fight because the gender-race vote in the rural areas of his southern district may be more prone to look to Trump and Vaquez' GOP challenger Yvette Herrell. Vasquez will balance that out in BernCo and Dona Ana but the race is still in play.

--Vasquez immediately endorsed Harris:

President Biden gave a lifetime of distinguished service to the country we love. I commend the President for his decades of serving Americans and serving working people, not CEOs and corporations. I commend his decision to step out of the race and put his country first. We must now come together as a nation to defeat MAGA extremists, like Donald Trump and Yvette Herrell, who have attacked our fundamental freedoms, chief among them reproductive rights. Vice-President Kamala Harris is the leader who can bridge the divide in our country and move our nation forward. 

Herrell attacked Vasquez: 

If Joe Biden is unfit to run for president, he is most certainly not fit to BE president. I hope Gabe Vasquez will join me in calling for Biden to also step down as President of the United States. Our great nation cannot afford to have a leader incapable of handling the rigors of the most important job in the world!

ABQ area Rep. Melanie Stansbury endorsed Harris this way:

--In the north US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez came with praise for Biden and an endorsement of Harris:    

President Biden is a transformational President whose legacy will benefit generations to come. He reinvigorated manufacturing in America, created 15.7 million jobs, and fought for reproductive rights. He was the first president ever to successfully negotiate with big pharma companies to lower prescription drug prices.” “The fight to uphold our democratic values is a relay, and Vice President Kamala Harris, with her strong record of leadership, will take the baton in stride and lead us to victory in November.  

--Sen. Ben Ray Lujan celebrated Biden and endorsed Harris:

America needs a strong leader to accept the torch from President Biden so that we can continue to deliver for the American people. Vice President Kamala Harris is that leader. Her wisdom, experience, and commitment to public service proves that she will be an effective leader in the White House. Kamala is brilliant, good-hearted, and truly cares about the well-being of America’s families and children. There’s a reason why President Biden chose her to be by his side during his Administration — she’s ready to lead. I officially endorse Kamala Harris for President and I’m looking forward to helping elect our first female President in November. 

 --NM pollster Brian Sanderoff has long pointed out that the presidential candidate has influence on the legislative races way down the ballot. Our insiders say there appear to be about 10 competitive legislative seats on the November ballot. With Harris presiding over a unified party, that could help the Dems in tight races. 

 MLG IMPLOSION 

Here's the money quote from one of our Alligators about the state of the governorship of New Mexico in the aftermath of MLG's legislative collapse. 

Joe, to quote the Boss, "It's a death trap, a suicide rap." She's pretty much dead in the water unless she can swim back to shore with a peace pact clenched between her teeth. Even then it will never be the same. Not after that over-the-top tongue lashing she gave the legislators right after they ditched her crime agenda and adjourned after just a few hours of the special session. 

Theoretically the lame duck portion of a Guv's second term begins after the general election coming two years before her term expires. In MLG's case she expedited the process by half a year and now is so lame the doctors at Presbyterian are fitting her for a prosthetic leg

Even Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth, sometimes frowned on for being too obsequious toward the Fourth Floor, said it is time for a reset with the Guv:

There is no question that we're in a spot here, let me put it that way. What you're seeing is a very important rebalancing, I think, a separation of powers, and it's important to understand that we are equal branches of government. We certainly look forward to working with Gov. Lujan Grisham. We have done some terrific work together, and I hope we can continue to do that work.

Thanks, Peter, but that's probably still too obsequious for your legislative colleagues who were literally belittled by MLG when she called them an an "embarrassment" for not giving her what she wanted. Revenge is more the order of the day than a reset.

In case you missed it, here's the MLG statement about the special that started the funeral dirge going for the remainder of her tenure: 

This legislature just demonstrated that it has no interest in making New Mexico safer. Not one public safety measure was considered. Not one, despite the bills having the backing of police chiefs, public safety unions, mayors, prosecutors, businesses, tribal leaders, crime victims and others who have seen firsthand the erosion of public safety that has deeply damaged the quality of life in our state. Today I visited a neighborhood that is being ravaged by dangerous activity and everyday petty crime. Families can’t walk in the park, employees are scared to go to work, and businesses are shuttering. 

For the legislature to ignore these stark realities is nothing less than a dereliction of duty. The legislature as a body walked away from their most important responsibility: keeping New Mexicans safe. But it is noteworthy that a majority of Republicans would have passed many or all of these bills — they were blocked. The legislature should be embarrassed at their inability to summon even an ounce of courage to adopt common-sense legislation to make New Mexicans safer. For those of you who go home to the sound of gunshots, who see hypodermic needles in your parks, and the families desperate to get a loved one living on the street the help they deserve, I’m sorry that most of our elected officials didn’t even try. This was one of the most disappointing days of my career, and the public should be outraged. My promise to you is that I will not stop fighting to protect you and your families.

How about that pivot from the Democratic Guv to the minority Republicans--the same Republicans who wanted to impeach her over her Covid regulations? There may be short-term comfort for MLG there but no salvation.

THE CURSE

Richardson and Martinez (2010)

MLG's implosion continues the tradition of the second term curse. 

Governors Johnson, Richardson and Martinez also fell victim to the curse and finished their second terms in the polling cellar and with dismal relationships with the legislature. Now MLG.

Johnson went off the rails by coming out for legalizing drugs and vetoing one to many times the state budget. Lawmakers called themselves into "extraordinary session" to rebuke him and pass their own budget. He proceeded to wander in the political wilderness.

Richardson went dictator on the legislature in his second term and in response they adjourned a special session on him, leaving him standing with his unmentionable in his hand. Always the diplomat, he tried to make the peace but it didn't stick and he joined Johnson in the wilderness

Martinez, a former DA, always had strongman tendencies and pushed the legislature around like it was a baby in a carriage. She got her comeuppance when she hosted an infamous holiday pizza party featuring drunken behavior--including her own--as well as verbal badgering of the hotel staff. She was finished  and left office with miserable poll numbers and numerous scandals hanging over her.

Now our current chief executive who has been chugging along with mildly favorable popularity ratings, but then goes nuclear by suddenly exclaiming that she has discovered a major crime wave has been underway since she took office and now she is really going to do something about it.  

Believing their own press or falling for fantasy dreams of power are always the markers of our cursed governors.

They mistake the legislature's quiescence for weakness and poke the sleeping lion one too many times. Then the beast arises--like a co-equal branch of government--and takes one large bite into their prey. You know, like adjourning a special session called by the Governor so fast that the cafeteria staff doesn't have time to heat up the enchiladas. 

FALLING FLAT

Joe Monahan

Alas, our Guv, a spirited and ebullient personality who has surprised her foes with her long record of success, lost her touch and overplayed her hand. 

Her intimidation tactics fell so flat in part because most of the 112 lawmakers do not face peril at the polls in the November election, 

MLG grew up when New Mexico was a swing state with two reasonably strong parties. Now there is one strong party--the Democrats with a powerful progressive wing--and they settle their affairs at the June primary. The winner there invariably goes on to victory in November because the Republican party has come to resemble a confused Neanderthal on the way to extinction. 

For a Governor losing leverage is like losing their voice. What it means in the serious world of government policy is that the Legislative Finance Committee and legislators who take an active interest in the arcane aspects aspects of lawmaking are going to be where the new ideas and programs percolate.  And they will start with a rewrite of the Governor's failed special session agenda.

MLG will have veto power but even that is now diminished. If she tries, for example, to deprive legislators of their prized capital outlay, she could face veto overrides.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Governor wanted out during her first term but Team Biden did not cotton to her strong-arm approach and nixed a cabinet appointment. She was stranded.

Same for Big Bill when he was prepared to avoid the second term curse by securing a cabinet job with Obama. It didn't happen. He had to stay put. 

Ditto for Martinez whose name became a national calling card for a time but no one ever called and the curse took hold.

MLG will persevere. She still commands a government of some 20,000 and has a voice on the national stage. But the salad days are over.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

MLG had some carrot and some stick for New Mexico's legislature as she signed the proclamation calling for a special session starting at noon today that has been strongly opposed by a variety of Democratic Party interest groups. 

She corralled leading law enforcement officials as well as a number of mayors to help make her case for the session at a news conference at the Roundhouse. (Full video here.)

The stick came out when she left open the question of calling another special session if this one is quickly adjourned without major action as has been rumored all week. She observed:

There's precedence for calling multiple sessions back-to-back, so I'm no stranger to what is available.  

The carrot came when she indicated a late breaking deal on her crime bills is still possible: 

I am open to compromise, but I need lawmakers to come to the table and work with me on behalf of New Mexicans. Together, we can make our state safer for all.

Leading legislators also were not budging as they caucused late Wednesday, continuing to maintain that the Governor's crime proposals--especially a bill dealing with the mental competency of accused criminals--was too complicated to pass in a short special session.

She countered that the issue isn't time but political will.

Progressives have been vocal in their opposition to the crime measures and their was hand has been strengthened by their success at the June primary. That makes it doubly difficult for MLG to carry the day as their new colleagues will join them in January. 

But both sides do agree on one item--relief for victims of the recent fires at Ruidoso.

That measure and an appropriation to finance the special session estimated at $50,000 a day seem assured of passage. After that it's up in the air. Stay tuned.

The Governor's proclamation is at the end of this blog.

HENRICH NICKS NELLA

Heinrich ad

In the first negative campaign ad of the US Senate campaign Sen. Martin Heinrich nicks GOP contender Nella Domenici over how long she has lived in New Mexico and the fortune she made on Wall Street. The script:

Domenici may have a name that’s familiar, But how familiar is she with New Mexico? Well, Nella hadn’t lived in New Mexico since 1973, Back when Richard Nixon was president. She’d been living in a waterfront mansion in Connecticut, Has a $5 million dollar apartment in New York City, And spent her career helping Wall Street get richer. And now, Nella’s trying to buy our senate seat. Wall Street’s got enough senators. We need one who will fight for us.

The state GOP responded by pointing out Heinrich was not born here (he was born in Nevada and grew up in Missouri). The party also came with this:

. . .Martin Heinrich's campaign has entered desperation mode. (He) is showing he is terrified by the momentum building behind Nella Domenici's campaign. . . Heinrich is resorting to false, petty, and personal attacks that underscore why so many are frustrated with the state of politics today. . .Nella Domenici was born in New Mexico and only moved when her father was elected to serve as the U.S. Senator of our great state. She and her husband Pat have called New Mexico home for years. The bottom line is Heinrich can't run on his record of failures, so he's resorting to desperate, personal attacks.

The ad is light negative with the apparent aim of keeping Domenici in check amid Democratic panic over prospects for Biden in the state and some polling that shows the Senate race here tightening. 

In the only public poll--conducted by PPP June 13-14--Heinrich led Domenici 47 to 40 percent but the Domenici camp says their internal poll has that margin shrinking to three points. 

The race has not yet been targeted by the national Republicans.

SPECIAL SESSION PROCLAMATION 

MLG signs proclamation

From the Governor's office:

Gov. Lujan Grisham convenes special legislative session to address urgent public safety issues 

WHEREAS, a significant amount of criminal defendants have their charges dropped due to a determination of incompetency and are allowed to go free without receiving the mental health services they need to address their mental health issues and prevent future criminal activity; 

WHEREAS, the standard for imposing civil commitment or assisted outpatient treatment in New Mexico is outdated such that the definition of “danger to self” or “danger to others” creates a dangerously high bar to having someone receive the mental health treatment they need, which prevents officials and loved ones from getting those suffering from severe mental illness desperately needed care and jeopardizes community safety as a consequence; 

WHEREAS, local law enforcement agencies do not consistently report crime and ballistic information to the Department of Public Safety, which is vital to effective criminal investigations and comprehensive analysis of criminal activities across jurisdictions; 

WHEREAS, New Mexico has the nation's highest rate of pedestrian fatalities per capita, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association, and many of these fatalities and other vehicle-pedestrian accidents occur as a result of individuals unsafely remaining on medians; 

WHEREAS, New Mexico has some of the highest rates of gun violence in the Nation, and much of this violence is perpetrated by convicted felons; 

WHEREAS, New Mexico’s Racketeering Act needs to be updated to ensure that the State can stem the rise of organized crime by effectively prosecuting those involved in criminal organizations; 

WHEREAS, hundreds of New Mexicans die from drug overdoses every year, many of which are the result of the widespread availability of fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid up to fifty times stronger than heroin; 

WHEREAS, communities across the State have been devastated by the South Fork and Salt Fires and other natural disasters, as noticed in Major Disaster Declaration DR-4795-NM, and continue to require aid from the federal government to address the aftermath of these natural disasters; and WHEREAS, it is necessary for the New Mexico State Legislature to convene at the State Capitol Building to address these pressing issues. 

NOW THEREFORE, I, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Governor of the State of New Mexico, by virtue of the authority vested in me by Article IV, Section 6 of the New Mexico Constitution, do hereby issue this proclamation and call the Fifty-Sixth Legislature of the State of New Mexico into a Special Session at twelve o’clock p.m. on Thursday July 18, 2024, at the State Capitol Building in Santa Fe. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

The money chase in the state's two high-profile congressional races this year remains static. After the filing of the latest FEC reports the Democratic incumbents continue to hold 2 to 1 cash on hand advantages over their Republican rivals. 

Nella Domenici, who made a fortune in the finance industry, raised $2.9 million in the second quarter, including a $1 million personal loan that comes on on top of an earlier $500,000 loan. But her new cash on hand balance of $2.126 million is only enough to keep Domenici, daughter of the late GOP US Senator Pete Domenici, pedaling in place.

Heinrich reports raising $1.7 million in the three months covered. His cash balance June 30 was $4.7 million, maintaining the more than 2 to 1 cash lead over Domenici that he had at the beginning of the reporting period. 

Domenici has raised a total of $3.6 million for her campaign which started in January. Heinrich has raised $7.7 million since the beginning of 2023. 

Domenici's financial disclosure forms say she has assets of anywhere from $21 million to $94 million. 

Heinrich's senate disclosure form reports he has assets as high as $564,000 or as low as a negative $290,000 when a mortgage is accounted for.

Political pros say Domenici doesn't need to be neck and neck with Heinrich in the money race but needs to be closer to encourage more donations and public perception of the contest. 

The race has yet to be targeted by the national GOP. If it were, she could count on significant outside financial support. For now she's on her own. 

The Cook Political Report continues to rank the New Mexico senate race "Solid Democratic."

In the other top-tier state contest, Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez holds a 2 to 1 cash on hand advantage over Republican Yvette Herrell in the race for the southern congressional seat. 

Herrell reports $1.354 million in cash at the end of June. Vasquez reports $2.7 milllion in cash. He has raised a total of nearly $4 million thus far and Herrell $2.4 million.  

That advantage is not as significant as Heinrich's since this race has been targeted nationally and millions of campaign dollars will be coming in for both hopefuls. Still, that Vasquez's personal committee continues to outperform Herrell's is a morale booster for his campaign. 

There is no recent public polling in the contest. The Cook Political Report rates it a Toss-Up.

SPECIAL REACT 

In our report on the special legislative session set for Thursday we noted that ABQ Mayor Tim Keller was "egging on" MLG's criticism of the legislature at a Monday news conference at an ABQ homeless camp. His office responded: 

Mayor Keller will continue to "egg on" any elected official who can support Albuquerque’s efforts on homelessness and crime fighting. Tim’s penchant for special sessions is well known, and as a former State Senator he’s consistently held the 60/30 day session structure has always held back New Mexico from addressing its major challenges. A special session is the only way to move the ball forward with the constraints of our state’s Constitution.

And as the session approaches with a stalemate between the Governor and lawmakers, we get this from a reader: 

If you are a regular Joe or Judy watching the special session debacle you have to be disgusted. Homelessness, substance abuse and crime are raging across our state. Gun violence is out of control and the social safety net is not holding up-increasing the numbers of drug-addicted people on the streets. The legislature stands defiant and lazy; unwilling to interrupt their precious summer vacations to do their jobs. The Governor doesn’t have the wherewithal or attention span to harness public support to put pressure on the political elites. Progressive interest groups, who claim to care about families, don’t want to bother going to Santa Fe. So, what do we get from the ineptitude? Status quo or worse. New Mexicans-you need to wait until January and then we’ll consider working on your issues. This is the real crisis in our state from which all our problems stem-ineffective political leaders.

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Lunch at the Mansion

When legislators turn down a free lunch, you know things are bad. 

Look at that photo courtesy of the Alligators. It appears that only one lawmaker bothered to accept MLG's invitation to lunch at the Guv's Mansion Monday as she desperately tried to hammer out an agreement to avoid a complete breakdown of the special session set to begin Thursday.

The sole lawmaker hungry enough to lunch with her was outgoing Dem Senator Daniel-Ivey Soto. He looks lonelier (but happier) than he did on Primary Election Night when progressive groups banded together to take him out of his ABQ NE Heights legislative seat which he keeps until the end of the year. 

Ivey-Soto is a legendary deal-maker in Santa Fe but you have to have someone to make a deal with and right now literally no one is coming to the Governor's table. 

Word is she invited to lunch members of the judiciary committees of the House and Senate which is why so many chairs are set up but lawmakers bowed out. 

So what of the pressing question: What happened to all the leftovers? Well, we imagine the "First Manny" will be enjoying his lunch breaks for the next couple of days. 

PRETTY BAD

How bad is it? Even mild-mannered and accommodating Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth is lost to MLG, saying at a Monday news conference:

Special Sessions only work when the bills are cooked. We thought we had an agreement with the governor when she first indicated she wanted to call a special [session], that she wouldn’t proceed unless there was consensus. The governor went ahead and. . . called this session, before we had even started working on these bills; that’s certainly her prerogative. We have worked hard to try and find bipartisan consensus on the bills that were proposed. As the speaker said, we’re just not there.

Sen. Wirth

Sources say Wirth, who can usually be counted on to carry the Governor's water, went south after a "contentious" phone call with her over the weekend. 

She had already lost House Speaker Javier Martinez who again appeared livid Monday that lawmakers were being called back when there is no agreement on the five anti-crime measures MLG is putting on the session's agenda, 

That news conference by Wirth and Martinez left the clear impression that legislators could be gaveled into session Thursday for only a few minutes and then immediately adjourn. But the Governor's office showed no outward sign of worry or of cancelling the session, declaring that plans are going "full steam ahead."

Are those plans like MLG conducting a steam-powered locomotive and heading for a train wreck with legislators?

That a PAC supporting the Guv has put up radio ads urging the public to call legislators and pressure them to support MLG's special session agenda, doesn't seem to be helping.

At the news conference Speaker Martinez seemed to indicate the two sides may be going to the mattresses. He  pointedly said the lawmakers were ready to get to work if they had a a workable agenda. That sounded as if incoming fire against the lawmakers would be launched by MLG if they did not bend to her ways.   

BLASTING THE HOMELESS

MLG held a news conference at a downtown ABQ homeless camp and blasted the legislature for not embracing her bill that would strengthen mental competency laws and make it easier for judges to hold certain offenders in confinement. But the optics were a mixed bag. 

The homeless camp did not look nefarious and the Governor may have appeared tone deaf to their plight as she railed against them in support of her bill:

If these individuals will not seek care and break the law and come right back to the streets, there is nothing we can do to interrupt this chaos. 

But the event missed the mark with the Democratic base and may actually have strengthened the hand of the progressives who have called on her to cancel the session. 

She may think a tough line will rally Republicans and moderate Dems but they and she don't have the votes. A compromise is still the only way out. That Mayor Keller was there to egg her on only exposed the ineffectiveness of the city in fighting crime--not the state.

For Republicans this is a rare time to enjoy the Roundhouse. They are proposing all manner of crime bills that have no chance but at least they can show they are doing something. That's clearly not the case for the chief executive and the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. 

Then there's that other crisis. The Rio Chama bar and restaurant, across from the Roundhouse and a favorite hangout of legislators and lobbyists, has let its liquor license expire. 

No free lunches at the Mansion or premium booze nearby? How long can they last up there?

FULL COMMENTS

Here is the full statement of the Democratic legislative leadership on the special session:

House Speaker Javier Martínez (D-Albuquerque), House Majority Floor Leader Gail Chasey (D-Albuquerque),Senate Pro Tem Mimi Stewart (D-Albuquerque), and Senate Majority Floor Leader Peter Wirth (D-Santa Fe)issued the following statement: 

 

“We share the Governor’s commitment to improving public safety and expanding access to behavioral healthcare and substance use treatment. However, we have repeatedly noted that our constitutional duty as a separate and co-equal branch of government is to fully consider the legislation that comes before us and the potential impact it may have on New Mexicans. 

 

In a series of public committee meetings over the last few months, lawmakers brought together law enforcement, behavioral healthcare providers, disability rights groups, community leaders, and other subject matter experts to consider the legislation proposed by the Executive.  

 

Unfortunately, after several weeks of these meetings, we still have deep and serious concerns that the legislation proposed for this special session would have unintended consequences on New Mexicans, especially for those most vulnerable, and their liberties. 

 

Lawmakers, along with community leaders and advocates, have repeatedly raised their voices about the potential problematic impact of the proposed legislation. 

 

While we think these policies are not ready for the special session, we can and will continue our work on these issues in the interim and in the upcoming 60-day legislative session that begins in January. ”

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It's pro forma for politicians to immediately condemn instances of political violence but it is essential they do so if that violence is not to be accepted as the norm. 

A danger is that the intermittent chaos and shock caused by such events moves into the realm of something more permanent and menacing to the democracy. 

So the expressions of sorrow and condemnation by the state's political class over the attempted assassination of former President Trump at a Saturday Pennsylvania rally were expected but no less welcome. 

In the '24 NM contest laced with the most virulent symptoms of the divisiveness that afflicts today's politics, both hopefuls struck the right tone. 

Former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, challenging Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who unseated her two years ago and who is a fervent Trump supporter, refrained from turning the tragedy into a blame game against the Democrats and Biden as did some of her Republican colleagues:

I am praying for President Trump and his family. No one will divide this nation as long as we are united under God and our freedoms secured. We will persevere and those responsible will be held to account for their cowardly act.

Vasquez cast a wide net in his reaction, avoiding any temptation to inflame the moment: 

Gun violence has no place on our streets, in politics or in the democratic discourse. As information continues to unfold, let me be clear that I strongly condemn acts of violence against anyone, regardless of political party. I wish President Trump a safe & speedy recovery as well as anyone involved in this incident.

Herrell and Vasquez could not be more different in their personalities. The southern congressional district is also like night and day--half rural and half city; half pro-Trump and half pro-Biden. Thankfully the candidates turned down the temperature in their reaction to the deadly weekend violence. Keeping it turned down is incumbent on them as they venture into an already heated battle in the months ahead.

Heinrich & Monahan

Sen. Heinrich came with a statement that bumped up against the often rancid discourse infecting contemporary politics:

In the coming days, I urge all of us to engage in political conversations with a renewed sense of respect and understanding. We have the power to change the tone of our national discourse. Let us lead by example in our conversations, both online and offline. Now, more than ever, we must remember that our political opponents are not our enemies. They are fellow Americans, with their own hopes, fears, and dreams for this country. Our democracy depends on our ability to disagree without demonizing one another.

The hope is that such statements resonate and that future generations are able to enjoy the benefits of this great democracy and not witness its demise.

WARP SPEED POLITICS

Politics operates at warp speed these days. Uncertainty seems the only certainty and solid predictions of the future are often folly and the terrain of the arrogant. So, with those yellow flags of caution waving we take a look at the possible ramifications on the upcoming election (with the assistance of our Senior Alligators) caused by the attack on former President Trump.

Most of those we spoke with were humble enough to admit they are waiting for the polls to give them some guidance as the aftershocks from Saturday reverberate. 

A polling bump for Trump is expected by most of our observers--at least for a couple of weeks--considering the rally around the flag tendency in moments of national crisis as well as from the GOP national convention that kicks off today. 

But there are structural components to state politics that are not given to crumbling and that underpin the election even in the aftermath of this latest political earthquake. Let's take a look:

In the toss-up Vasquez-Herrell contest, Vasquez will be looking for any impact on independent voters that are essential for Herrell to convince to join with her Republican base which is expected to be galvanized by the Trump attack. 

While GOP voters may become more enthusiastic to vote for their presidential nominee, Democrats could be galvanized by raw fear as speculation rains down on them that New Mexico might vote for Trump. 

The absence of a well-oiled Republican machine is a major impediment for them to take advantage of any change in the environment that could attract conservative Dems and independents. One of our Dem Senior Gators points out that Republicans have basically been banished from the state. There is no infrastructure for them to generate a comprehensive campaign. 

Also, national chatter that New Mexico could be in play for the GOP may be raising fears among rank and file Democrats but it is not being matched by most knowledgeable and experienced professionals here who note that Democrats far outnumber Republicans and after all these years are not suddenly going to become Trump voters.

The question arises of whose opinion changes because of this tragic event? In New Mexico there is a cemented vision between pro and anti Trump voters. There are few undecided. That makes for slight ticks up and down in the polling but not large shifts. 

--The long-shot GOP play, according to former state legislator and longtime political consultant Greg Payne, is a huge burst of enthusiasm among Trump supporters and a substantial drop in Democratic turnout. 

The Biden camp said before the shooting say they will continue to follow a "let the chips fall where they may" strategy for our state. They believe that if New Mexico were somehow to get in play it would mean the race is already lost in the key battleground states where they will be concentrating their efforts. 

HEINRICH VS. DOMENICI

In the US senate race Nella Domenici remains in a tough spot, argues analyst Payne. 

She's not running the type of campaign that could take maximum advantage of a jump in Trump's support. She has said she is not seeking his endorsement or offering hers to his candidacy. That's in addition to not saying whether she will vote for him. Now seems the time for her to pivot to a more friendly Trump stance and have less concentration on her father's service as a US senator. 

Heinrich has a good first month, thanks to Domenici not attacking him and forcing him to spend money early. His traditionally cautious approach is not yet being upset. Domenici will have to do something to force him to move out of his comfort zone.

THE SPECIAL 

Suddenly the special legislative session the Governor called on crime and set for this Thursday in Santa Fe has become more interesting as one of the most notorious crimes in the nation's history has just taken place and sure to cast a shadow over the Roundhouse.

The problem is the Governor getting late momentum on the short list of bills she has proposed aimed at curbing the state's stubbornly high crime rate. After weeks of wrangling with key lawmakers with little success, that opportunity may have passed.

A key House committee chair, Rep. Christine Chandler of Los Alamos, is warning that two of the top measures being pushed by the Governor may have to wait until the next regular legislative session in January: 

. . . She’s not sure that criminal competency and civil commitment can be addressed within the limited time frame of a special session. The criminal competency legislation doesn’t have a “strong nexus” to reducing crime rates, she said, representing about 4% of criminal cases. She called current competency laws “out of date” and “inadequate.” “But they’re complicated issues. When you’re talking about committing someone with a mental health issue, that’s a big deal. That is something you don’t do lightly.”

MLG has been a leader on gun violence throughout her career but the sole gun bill for the special is to extend prison time for felons caught using a gun committing a crime. That would seem to have bipartisan support and perhaps could be bundled with others that are not controversial and salvage the session from an ugly breakdown.

While MLG has been criticized for breaking tradition and not brokering a deal with lawmakers before calling the special (at least not yet), a coalition of progressives asking her to cancel the session because her proposals infringe on liberties, also share blame for the stand-off. As one of our Alligators put it:

Joe, the progressives say don't bother. Just stay home. That's because they have no solutions, only criticism of the Governor who is at least trying. 

Well, the session will certainly be more interesting now--if not more productive.  

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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