New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

The lions got their meat. And they roared. Finally the Democratic National Convention, overdosing on Sominex for three days, came to life as John Kerry threw platters of raw filet mignon at the frenzied crowd.

A key line: "I will send a message to every man and woman in our armed forces: You will never be asked to fight a war without a plan to win the peace. We need a President who has the credibility to bring our allies to our side and share the burden, reduce the cost to American taxpayers, and reduce the risk to American soldiers. That's the right way to get the job done and bring our troops home."

"It was a five hundred foot homer," bragged Big Bill as he made the late, late cable TV rounds. The weary Guv, coming off a four day adrenaline high, claimed Kerry took the national security issue off the table. "The Republicans will have a hard time using it against him now," declared Convention Chairman Big Bill.

Phone lines burned across the Land of Enchantment among the Democratic faithful who hailed the new, muscular Kerry. And they relished the controversy that has broken out over Vice- president Cheney's Saturday Rio Rancho, NM visit saying ticket seekers to the event were being asked to sign a pledge of support before they got tickets. The pledge was being required, according to the GOP, because "liberal operatives" were planning to disrupt the Veep's visit.

But it was the Kerry speech, hotter than Hatch green chili, that had the Dems salivating. "It made up for all the dull speeches preceding it," declared one liberal.

Kerry inching closer to an outright anti-war platform was the dinner course that really hit the spot for Dems here who are digesting fresh polls numbers from Zogby interactive showing their man with a nearly ten point lead over the Prez in NM.

"Maintaining the momentum" is now the key to victory, offered Big Bill in his post-mortem. And he is right. A hundred days in politics is forever, but Thursday night time stood still in Campaign 2004 as John Kerry froze the moment and framed the race.

PATSY'S LOYALTY OATH

What New Mexican has the closet ties to the Kerry-Edwards ticket? Big Bill? Maybe not. His rival, Attorney General Patsy Madrid was in her glory last night as she was one of a handful of friends invited to sit with the Edwards family to take in the Kerry stemwinder.

Her friends wasted no time getting the word out. I asked one of them attending the convention with her in Boston just what was the chemistry between the two since they have only been close for a couple of years. "Above all, both Patsy and John value loyalty. She has been extremely loyal to him sticking with him during the darkest hours of his presidential campaign. The two of them are also fighters. John is a fierce trial lawyer and Patsy is equally tough," explained the insider.

There's no hiding the sparks that flare between Big Bill and Patsy, but the big picture is actually good news for New Mexicans. Our little state needs all the friends it can get at the top levels of national power.

WORRIES OVER WINNING

Some Dems are fretting about that latest Zogby poll(see July 29 report) because it could mean NM dropping off the list of battleground states come October. "It may have a dampening effect on Richard Romero's congressional race, as well as Gary King's. They need the troops fully fired up and if Kerry stays this far ahead the enthusiasm level could be dampened," worried one loyal Dem.

The Romero campaign is floating an in-house poll showing them within four points of the GOP Congresswoman Wilson, but they are not releasing the questions asked of voters so its credibility cannot be evaluated.

A Democratic consultant who railed at Romero to do more TV for the June primary is again telling me that Romero needs to be up on the airwaves right now if he plans on winning. That consultant predicted Romero would be held below 60% by Miles Nelson on June 1st and he was right.

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Dick Cheney can't get to New Mexico soon enough as the latest Zogby interactive poll shows Senator Kerry with his biggest lead yet in the state and the biggest lead in any of the sixteen battleground states Zogby is polling.

The grim numbers for Team Bush are as follows: Kerry--52% Bush--42.2% Nader--0.9%. That's a 9.8% lead for Kerry, the largest of the five Zogby polls conducted thus far and the second one that has put him over the magic 50% level. The margin of error in the poll, done July 19-23, is plus or minus 4.4%. 499 New Mexicans participated.

"August may be a do or die month for the President," opined one top Republican who has worked at all levels of politics. "The real trouble for Bush is not just in the horse race, but in how voters here feel about the direction of the country. Only 39% believe the country is on the 'right track' compared to 57% who feel it's on the 'wrong track.'"

New Mexican women are especially sour on the direction of the country. By a margin of two to one they say wrong track. Also, Bush is getting clobbered in Albuquerque in the Zogby survey with Kerry garnering nearly 58% of the vote.

"I expect to hear the negative drumbeat on Kerry at full decibels in the weeks ahead. Bush has the next month and the GOP convention week in early September to get this thing out of the mud, otherwise New Mexico will probably be written off," said our Republican analyst.

Other analysts say Hispanic Democrats coming home to their natural party is largely responsible for the Kerry move. But he is also running well in Anglo Dem country in SE NM in the latest survey.

All in all it's not a pretty picture that will confront Vice-president Cheney when he campaigns in Rio Rancho this weekend. With he election still three months out there is time for a turnaround. But the tick-tock of the clock is growing louder by the week for Team Bush. Clearly, nothing less than the Guns of August will be needed to start turning this one around.

BIG BILL'S WORLD

Big Bill took on the world in a ten minute speech to the Democratic convention last night that did not do much to rouse the crowd but helped Kerry frame the "go it alone" approach to world affairs he condemns Bush for pursuing, Bill made sure he got in some plugs for himself as well. The AP's Deborah Baker of NM filed the key quote from our Guv:

"I was able to negotiate the release of hostages from dictators and thugs . . . unite the UN Security Council around American interests . . . solidify sometimes shaky ties with our closest neighbors in Latin America," the first-term governor and former energy secretary said."

Perhaps Bill still has his eye on the Secretary of State's position. But politicos think it's a long shot if Kerry indeed wins. They are putting diplomat Richard Holbrooke, Senator Joe Biden and even Al Gore on the list but not Big Bill. But if Kerry loses the Prez race it starts all over again and that brings you back to our ever-ambitious Guv.

THE OGLE COUNTDOWN

It appears the political career of ABQ NE Heights State Rep. Rory Ogle is about to come to an abrupt end. Republican insiders on Wednesday were nearly unanimous in telling me they think Rory has to go after being charged with wife-beating (see my Wednesday report) and domestic violence. "It's a matter of hours, not weeks, before he throws in the towel," declared one.

The sources also told me when Ogle resigns his seat look for a woman to replace him on the ballot. "It would send the right message for sure." said one. Ogle has sought counseling in the aftermath of the incident, admitting there was a problem. But top Republicans are determined not to let Ogle make his personal problem theirs. Not when their own campaign trails are about to turn red-hot.

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The legislative days of State Rep. Rory Ogle may be numbered after his arrest on wife-beating charges, according to insider Republicans monitoring the developing situation.

"Rory is unopposed for re-election, but these charges are so hot that they could have an impact on the party as a whole. I think the pressure is going to mount and mount intensely for him to resign soon. This is also a test for (new State GOP Chair) Allen Weh," said one R with top-level state party experience.

If Ogle does call it quits, the Bernalillo County GOP Central Committee would name a ballot replacement. But what if Ogle resists resignation?

"If he fights and decides to try to hang on he will become a pariah. Domestic violence charges are one of those hot-button issues that the Democrats would find easy to use against Rory and all Republicans. If he plans on fighting, he will be doing it alone," declared our R insider.

Ogle easily defeated Democrat John Mondragon in 2002 taking 62% of the vote. He got the seat when Rep. Joe Mohorovic resigned it to take a job in Washington and the county central committee named Ogle as his ballot replacement, a situation that could play out yet again if Ogle feels the heat and gets out.

The Democrats did not put up any challenger to Ogle this year, but State Dem party Chair Wertheim can be counted on not to let the Ogle incident go unnoticed. "If Rory stays in, Wertheim will put a target on his back. That could hurt (Congresswoman) Wilson and even President Bush. Do Republicans want to be questioned about whether they support Ogle? I don't think so," weighed in our R analyst.

MORE OGLE ANGLES


Another angle worth mentioning: Since the Bernalillo County Central Committee is stacked with members loyal to former State GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham the replacement appointment, if it comes, can be expected to reflect that. However, the Dendahlites, followers of former GOP chair John Dendahl and his chief ally, lawyer/lobbyist Mickey Barnett, could make a play for the seat. But the numbers are against them on the committee.

Ogle could stand and fight. There is no law that says he has to step down. But if he is convicted of felony domestic violence and aggravated battery his day of reckoning will only be postponed, not denied.

2004 is going down as the year of the political scandal in New Mexico. First, the DWI bust of GOP State Rep. Joe Thompson, then the ABQ District Court cocaine scandal featuring Chief Judge John Brennan. Now the Rory Ogle wife-beating episode. What must Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico be thinking?

CHENEY'S CHOO-CHOO

Vice-president Dick Cheney will be in Rio Rancho this week, but not on Thursday as was first reported here. Cheney will make his appearance Saturday in the key suburban area next to ABQ. Senator Kerry will accept his party's Prez nomination Thursday night. Cheney will be here Saturday to put a shadow over some of the glow that will be coming out of Boston in the aftermath of the Dems big party. Call 505-342-2004 if interested in getting a ticket.

THE GREAT BLOG CONTEST

It's the Washington Post blog contest. Right wing. Left wing. Indifferent. Irreverent. There's a blog for every taste, opinion and attitude. washingtonpost.com's 2004 Best Blogs - Politics and Elections Readers' Choice Awards is your chance to speak out and vote for your favorite politics and election blogs. Feel free to throw our blog into the mix.

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You've heard the term "ward heeler." It's a reference to those bygone days when gruff, cigar-chomping personalities from the inner-city dominated the politics of the big cities. Well, last night at the Democratic National Convention it seemed like they had been reborn--in the persona of our own Big Bill.

At his core, our Guv is a politician. And when the national spotlight came on he could not hide it, not that he was trying. Big Bill, dressed in his best, toned-down East Coast finery and sporting a shorter and more ruly haircut, looked like he had been lifting weights before the big show in Boston of which he is chairman. When he spoke it was in short bursts in a semi-hoarse tone that carried the authority of those ward-heelers of bygone days.

Actually, it was kind of endearing because no matter how hard his handlers try, Big Bill is not of the TV and media age. He is a street politician who holds the world record for shaking the most hands in a single day. He's a people guy. People like him; the cameras have always been lukewarm. But on Night One he did what they hired him to do--administer the podium with confidence and competence.

But underneath the pomp and circumstance lurked the man's man, the politician's politician. The guy who loves to go politically incorrect once the microphones are off. He has that covered too. One of the parties he is throwing is dubbed "Champagne and Cigars."

Wednesday Night Big Bill delivers a speech on foreign policy to the Dem confab. I will have analysis from the experts on that one so be sure to join us Thursday

MEDIA NOTES

It is thin gruel indeed for the thousands of reporters staked out in Boston and that goes for New Mexico TV reporters as well. Thankfully for them they have a local angle in Big Bill chairing the event, but otherwise it may be a long week for KOB-TV's Neil Simon and KOAT's Doug Fernandez. Monday Simon did manage a hard lead as he questioned Big Bill about the corporate money paying for the parties in Boston. The Guv brushed it off which he has had to do a lot of lately. Fernandez followed the Big Guy around reporting he "made NM proud" and "earned his lunch."

Neil and Doug are going to have dig hard to earn their lunches this week. In an earlier story on what NM media was covering the convention I omitted Santa Fe Bureau Chief Walt Rubel of the Las Cruces Sun-News. Walt's pieces are runing in papers throughout southern NM.

OUR 'FAWNING' CONGRESS PEOPLE

New Mexico's entire Congressional delegation comes under unfavorable scrutiny in the Los Angeles Times' (registration required) recent take on the security scandal at Los Alamos. They are labeled "a fawning delegation" by observers who blame our Capitol Reps, in part, for the lax security culture causing calamity at the top-secret facility.

Republican sources tell me Senator Domenici has taken some severe hits from his own party members over the latest foul-up at Los Alamos thus his recent almost apologetic letter pulling back on his 30 years of support of Los Alamos management.

OGLE CHARGED WITH DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

ABQ NE Heights State Rep. Rory Ogle has trouble on the homefront. His wife has charged him with domestic violence. Ogle, who is unopposed on the November ballot, faces an aggravated battery charge. Here's the details from the ABQ Tribune

LET'S SWING

As a political junkie, you know that the Prez election comes down to a dozen or so battleground states, our fair New Mexico being one of them, at least for the time being. It's these swing states that you have to keep your eye on to know where this election is really headed. After all, it's an electoral vote game. Bookmark the swingstatesproject web site to keep it all straight.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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NM Republicans won't go into hiding this week as the Democrats take center stage at their national convention in Boston. In fact, the GOP is set to grab some headlines of its own when Vice-President Dick Cheney heads out to Rio Rancho for a Thursday visit, according to R sources in the nation's capitol.

Cheney's visit to Rio Rancho is seen as wise by political experts who have been telling me for months that the NM Prez battle could well be decided in the suburbs of ABQ, meaning Rio Rancho and south to Valencia County,

Cheney's Rio Rancho visit will be the first foray into those crucial precincts by any of the candidates on the major party tickets. He is useful in energizing the hard-core Republican base and persuading conservative Dems to stay with the incumbent team.

Rio Rancho will soon be NM's third largest city and a big question this year is all those new residents out there. Will they vote? Cheney's Thursday touchdown is sure to be followed by the Kerry-Edwards team which so far has planted itself in ABQ when visiting.

The timing for Cheney is good from a media standpoint as well. Kerry is set to give his acceptance speech Thursday night, but Cheney will have a NM TV presence as well, ensuring the Dems don't have that center stage position all to themselves.

JOE THOMPSON'S RETURN

Another Republican is in the blog news today, resurfacing after withdrawing earlier this year from his race for re-election after being arrested for DWI. (See my March 4 report in the archives). ABQ NE Heights Rep and State House Minority Whip Joe Thompson is touting an outfit called "The Iraq/America Freedom Alliance." It bills itself as a "new campaign launched by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a nonpartisan organization devoted to winning the War on Terrorism and promoting democracy around the world."

The director of the foundation is a former communications director for the Republican National Committee.

According to Thompson's statewide e-mail: "The Iraq/America Freedom Alliance is dedicated to America winning the war in Iraq and the War on Terror. The invasion of Iraq is making America safer and has sent a powerful message to other regimes that cooperating with global terror is the wrong policy."

Pro-invasion is nonpartisan?

Thompson did not respond to e-mail inquires asking whether he was being paid for his work with the group. He decided not to seek re-election to his House seat after the DWI. But it appears he nurtures hope for a comeback someday.

His critics will be waiting. Several of them e-mailed in claiming it appeared Thompson was given the e-mail list of the state GOP to promote his involvement with the Bush policy-friendly Iraq alliance group, and if he did, whether that constitutes a donation by the GOP that needs to be reported.

Thompson has long been associated with the Dendahl wing of the state GOP, so the potshots from he opposing troops is no surprise.

TIME TRAVEL: NM 1968

Hey, how could the ABQ congressional district have been created in 1968? Aren't all new congressional districts formed right after the census which is taken at the beginning of each decade? I received that question from several astute readers when I was commenting (see my July 22 report) on this year's congressional contest between Dem Richard Romero and incumbent R Heather Wilson.

The answer is this: In 1967 Congress passed a law (PL 90-196) which prohibited at-large by states with more than one House seat. Only two states, Hawaii and New Mexico, were affected by this legislation: all other states by this time were using elections by districts.

This law was passed largely because of concern that, in the wake of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, southern states might resort to winner-take-all at-large elections to dilute the voting strength of newly-enfranchised blacks in the South.

Thus NM was one of only two states to create a new congressional seat before the 1970 census. By the way, that first district was huge, covering all of ABQ and most of northern NM. It was shrunk back in later years.

Thanks to former Congressman Skeen staffer Jerry McKinney and others for their e-mails on this one. Keep them coming. There is an e-mail link at the top right of the page.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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"Pardoning--smardening--I don't care." That is the unforgiving position of prominent Republican Shirley Leslie on the state senate candidacy of fellow R John Ryan who was pardoned by Gov. Johnson for the crime of breaking and entering into Leslie's ABQ North Valley home back in 1980.

Leslie made her comments in an interview with the Weekly Alibi's Tim McGivern, who further quoted Leslie as saying, "I think it would be a sorry thing to put him in there. It would certainly degrade the office."

The proverbial straw that has broken the camel's back on this one is the attempted extortion Ryan and two other men tried against Leslie. They stole paintings of her dead husband and son and wanted money for their return.

"It was no child's play, it was a dreadful thing," Leslie recalled and added that police had to live with her and her children for several months while she received numerous threatening phone calls.

Leslie also disclosed that Ryan, a former executive director of the state GOP and ex-staffer for Senator Domenici and the late Congressman Skeen, "came and rang my doorbell, but I had no interest whatsoever in talking to him."

All this adds fuel to the fire blazing in this senate district which is being vacated by State Sen. and ex-GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham who Ryan declared he would run against, but Ramsay left the seat and her chairmanship, making Ryan the sole GOP candidate on the June 1 primary ballot. Ryan was fired by Gorham as ex. director shortly after she took over as chair.He will face ex-Los Ranchos mayor and Democrat John Hooker in the November election.

WILL VOTERS FORGIVE?

Political pros commented to "NM Politics with Joe Monahan" about the heated contest earlier (see July 20) and said the race could be influenced by Leslie's willingness to forgive and forget. Her unwillingness to do so gives Hooker, or other parties, an opportunity to try to tilt the seat to the Dems.

Ryan, 42, issued a letter to 10,000 households in the district earlier this month in an effort to take the issue off the table. But Ryan's letter did not detail the blackmailing charge. He says the charges had been fully reported in the press, but State Dem Party Chair John Wertheim latched on to that and dubbed John "sweep it under the rug" Ryan.

Leslie is a former GOP National Committeewoman and a heavy contributor to GOP causes. Domenici has stuck by his former aide, helping him raise funds at a party in D.C. earlier this year. Ryan, a lobbyist/consultant, will have a well-financed campaign while Hooker still lags in the money department. But the emotional statements by Leslie put this race front and center regardless of who has the biggest campaign kitty.

Leslie gave no indication that she would take further public positions against the Ryan candidacy, such as writing her own letter, but her public statement, sure to be widely circulated by Ryan's rivals, is damaging enough.

Meanwhile, former State GOP Chair John Dendahl is sticking by his guy calling Ryan a man who has "grown up to be a class act." Leslie is a close friend of Gorham's so the race could be a replay of the bitter party fight of late last year when the Dendahlites forced Gorham's resignation. In turn, the GOP State Central Committee ousted chief Dendahlite Mickey Barnett as GOP National Committeeman, replacing him with ex-state Rep. George Buffett.

The bottom line on all this: Shirley Leslie will not forgive John Ryan. Will the voters? Stay tuned.

INSIDE THE LOS ALAMOS SCANDAL

The Los Alamos security scandal has the defense-oriented politicos hungry for the very latest. I have the place where they can find it. defensetech.org is a blog run by freelance reporter and defense specialist Noah Shactman who also writes for the Chicago Tribune. Nineteen Los Alamos employees were placed on leave as the investigation widened Thursday. The director of the lab said some employees were in "suicidal denial" about what was happening at the facility. Shactman is deep into this one and will keep you updated on all the angles. A tip of the hat to KKOB's Larry Ahrens for the alert.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT.....

The ABQ Tribune did an in-depth feature on our blog Wednesday. Because of you, we are read widely and having more fun than ever. Thanks for making it possible and remember to e-mail me or phone in (505)243-4059 your political tidbits so we can keep up on the fast-spinning world of our beloved La Politica. Here's the Trib story.

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There may not be much news coming out of the Democratic National Convention, but it's a free trip and a chance to hang with the political high and mighty for New Mexico's intrepid political news corp. And don't forget, this is a convention with a big local angle as Big Bill chairs the quadrennial event opening Monday.

Most of the major NM news organizations will be sending reporters to Boston but there are a few notable exceptions.

KOB-TV's Neil Simon and KOAT-TV anchor Doug Fernandez will head East to cover the confab, but KRQE-TV has opted out and will not send a rep because they don't see much news happening. For the ABQ Journal, new political reporter Andy Lenderman will team with Washington bureau reporter Michael Coleman to handle duties for the morning daily.

Steve Terrell, veteran political writer for the Santa Fe New Mexican, will also be in Beantown. Steve is already grumbling that because of his late arrival he will miss the clambake and lobster broil party Big Bill is throwing Saturday. Maybe Steve will get to go to P.F Chang's with the Big Fella just like the Journal reporter did a couple of weeks ago. Steve and I are from the old school; if there's no free food at a political event, what's the point?

The ABQ Tribune's Shea Andersen must be nursing a bit of disappointment upon learning that his paper will not send him or anyone else to the Boston party. Scripps-Howard, the paper's parent will, however, provide reams of copy on the event. Too bad though. The two young, aggressive newspaper scribes, Andersen and the Journal's Lenderman, could have had some fun competing against each other in Boston, to the benefit of their readers.

As for what to watch, the interplay between the Guv and national media and how he performs as chair will be interesting. Also, not all Hispanics are enthralled with Kerry and we should keep our eyes open for any dissent. I will have special insider reports from the convention next week.

ROMERO: WE CAN WIN, REALLY

She has a million in the bank. He'’s got 300 grand. And, as I wrote Wednesday, (see July 21) that does not bode well for Richard Romero in his contest to oust GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson. However, as you might expect, the Romero campaign has it's own spin on my take. Here it is:

“You are living in denial if you think this race isn't competitive. Look at Romero's $$ two years ago and today. Look at the poll numbers and Romero's name ID today and 2 years ago.

(National political analyst) Charlie Cook put this race in his first paragraph when talking about a Democratic National trend. It seems you are slow to see what the rest of the nation knows. You have one of the hottest Congressional races in the nation in your own backyard."

MY TAKE TWO

Well, that's not the first time I've been charged with being slow. But every two years the ABQ congressional race is pegged by the national pundits as "one to watch." Trouble is, since the district was invented back in 1968, it has NEVER elected a Democrat. Maybe I am showing my age, but history still means something. Romero has a shot, but he is the definite underdog and observers from both sides tell me it will take a picture-perfect campaign to unseat the incumbent.

Even a "national trend" towards the D's may not be enough. Remember, we have had Democratic landslides in the Prez race here in years past (92', 96') and it did not translate into a win for the Dem congressional contender. With that in mind, it might be wise for Romero to avoid getting excited about what is happening in other races and concentrate on what is happening in his own backyard.

THE BLOG IN THE TRIBUNE SPOTLIGHT

ABQ Tribune political reporter Shea Andersen hit the streets Wednesday with an in-depth look at "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" and how its been received by our state's political community. They even scared little children by running a couple of photos of your blogger. Thankfully, the photos are not on the Trib web site, but the complete story is. So if you want to learn more about your writer
check it out here.

Unfortunately, Shea's report was fair and balanced and not the puff piece I thought I would get when I tried to bribe him with a free cup of Starbucks.

Thanks to all of you, my loyal readers, including my critics who keep me on my toes, for making us part of your daily, weekly or monthly routine. I'd like to think our efforts have given folks just a bit more insight into what makes the world of La Politica go round.

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New Mexico and Big Bill are still on the radar of the national media as they visit the swing states of Campaign 04' seeking clues on how the big show will end in November. New York Times reporter Rick Lyman spent some time in the state recently and reported that our Guv, chairman of the Democratic National Convention kicking off Monday in Boston, was a "gleeful workaholic and media-hungry control freak." Here's his profile of Big Bill. (registration required)

As for how New Mexicans will vote, the Times hedges, even though they cite the latest poll showing Kerry moving ahead. Here's the NYT analysis. (registration required)

Meanwhile, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, who hustled to get a slot to attend the convention, has decided not to attend and will concentrate on business at home, according to friends.

HEATHER IN THE SPOTLIGHT

The GOP National Convention won’t be held until early September in New York City, but bigwig R’s want to maximize the help they give to ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, so they have already announced that she has been given a speaking slot at the big confab. It won't be in prime time, but it will give Wilson maximum attention in the NM media and also serve to help the R’s persuade female voters to vote Bush-Cheney. Her Dem opponent, Richard Romero, knocked Wilson’s high-profile speaking assignment saying she will just speak to delegates about the "failed polices” of Bush.

But there's no glossing over that being one of just a dozen or so convention speakers is a nice little coup for Heather in a congressional district that could get wobbly for her if the campaign heats up in the Fall.

It will take a lot of money for Romero to turn up the temperature and he could not have been encouraged by Heather’s latest finance report showing her with more than an a million bucks in the bank, compared to Richard's 300 grand. It seems only a series of high-profile TV debates, or a big misstep by an incumbent, gives a congressional challenger any hope these days. Good luck getting either.

How huge amounts of money is driving the political train was driven home by the Kerry campaign Tuesday which sent out a news release bragging that it had raised nearly $100 million in the last quarter, the most ever by any Prez candidate in a three month period. It seems financial prowess is the key platform plank of both the Dems and the R’s.

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ABQ North Valley State Senate candidate John Ryan may be trying to put his mistakes of the past behind him by writing an open letter about his troubles to prospective voters, but the political pros don't think you have heard the last of Ryan's youthful escapades.

The 42 year old Republican, seeking the seat being vacated by Ramsay Gorham, sent a letter to 10,000 households explaining his breaking and entering felony conviction when he was 18 years old and asked voters not to hold it against him; that he had learned from his errant ways and was suitable for Roundhouse service.

But Ryan did not mention in his letter that it was the home of prominent ABQ North Valley Republican Shirley Leslie that he broke into and that it was pictures of her dead husband and son that he stole and tried to use to extract ransom from Leslie.

One political pro asks: "What about Shirley? Is she ready to forgive him? Or will she write a letter to counter Ryan's? It's an important question because if the victim of the crime is not ready to forgive him, it could influence whether the voters will."

Another politico with extensive campaign years said it's possible "a third party" such as a victims rights group could still take on Ryan. "Obviously, Ryan was going for a preemptive strike to dilute any future attacks, but I don't think his letter means he has bought immunity, especially because of the blackmail over the photos. Most voters there aren't aware of that part of the story and in his letter he doesn't mention it. I think it leaves him vulnerable to renewed attack."

RAMSAY'S REVENGE?

John Hooker, former Los Ranchos Mayor and Ryan's Democratic Senate rival, has so far let the media carry the load. He calls the whole saga "interesting." Ryan has the support of Senator Domenici who he once worked for, but not of former GOP Party Chair Gorham, who fired Ryan as executive director of the state GOP when she took over from John Dendahl. State Dem Party Chair Wertheim ripped Ryan's letter, but State GOP Chair Allen Weh has been quiet.

Gorham has been out of the state much of the time since being ousted by the Dendahlites from the party boss spot. One source says her home in the North Valley is for sale. But my panel of pros also wonders if Gorham will take on Ryan.

"Ramsay could cause him some serious heartburn if she wrote a letter or did a phone call to Republicans in the district saying they would be better off without him. After all, she has had that senate seat for eight years," declared one strategist.

WHO WINS THIS ONE?

Ryan, who is a lobbyist/consultant with Washington connections, has raised over $30,000 for the contest while Hooker has just 3 grand in the bank. Hooker has not said whether Big Bill's PAC will come thru with cash. The district is 43% Democrat and 41% Republican, but my experts say they expect the district's "voting performance" to be about 54% GOP.

Without his past problems, Ryan would be a shoo-in, but some R's worry that Ryan hit too soon with his preemptive strike and that the Dems may have a shot at the seat. "No one knew who John was. He could have laid some groundwork before announcing to the world his felony conviction. Voters would have had something to compare it with," analyzed one GOP insider.

Still, most smart money gives Ryan the edge in the race. But they are waiting to see polling numbers before making the call. They also want to see what Hooker comes with against Ryan, if anything, and if Big Bill makes a play.

Ryan was pardoned for his youthful crime by GOP Governor Johnson. He is about to find out if the court of public opinion is as forgiving.

ALL BILL, ALL THE TIME

Not Again! Yes, Big Bill's ever-expanding Santa Fe news bureau now has a sports division. Dennis Latta, a 24 year veteran of the ABQ Journal, will pack his bags and head North to head-up Bill's NM Sports Authority, aimed at attracting professional sports exhibitions and the like. Latta's salary was not disclosed when the appointment was announced, but the concept of a sports office is sure to be fodder for the talk-show hosts as NM lacks any major professional sports franchises and already generates a lot of attention and money from the Lobos, Aggies, Isotopes etc.

Latta joins a long line of news reporters who have taken jobs with Big Bill including the Journal's Bill Hume and Loie Fecteau. A bunch of TV news guys are also flacking for the PR heavy Guv. Maybe we should add Editor-in Chief to his job description.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

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It's been a rough year for ABQ NE Heights State Rep. Bob White. First, he loses his House seat in a brutal primary campaign against fellow Republican Justine Fox-Young. Now, he’s been busted for smoking cigarettes. That's right. An ABQ fire marshall recently visited White’s business, The Print Stop, and told the lawmaker he was violating the tough, new ABQ anti-smoking ordinance! Turns out White regularly puffs away in his office, but because that office is under the same roof as his employees, he is in violation of the ordinance that prohibits smoking in public buildings,

Neither can White get any relief by going outside and lighting up in the parking lot. "They told me the smoke could seep in the building." White was lucky in one regard: he was issued a warning instead of suffering a $100 fine. Apparently one of White's employees or a customer blew the whistle on him. But White says he will continue to blow smoke, if not at the Roundhouse, in the privacy of his home.

As for Ms. Young, White is hoping the 25 year old will soon go to law school and only serve a single term in the House, giving him a chance to re-take the seat. In politics, hope still springs eternal.

FROM CIGS TO BOOZE

Down Carlsbad way it’s drinking that has put the spotlight on a race for state senate. The law partner of Dem contender Jeff Diamond, Bill Dials, 36, was busted for boozing it up and ramming his car into a parked Saturn in the SE NM city. But the story doesn't end there. The accident victim says 'the good ol' boy network' tried to cover up the incident.

Carlsbad visitor and crash victim David Weber of Wichita, Kansas says Dials should have been charged right away with DWI after the Memorial Day weekend crash, but he wasn’t. And, when the police report was issued to the local newspaper, Dials name was blotted out. Cops say Dials had to get medical treatment so a breath test could not be done at the time. A blood test later showed Dials well over the legal limit.

Diamond, facing Republican Vernon Asbill for the seat being vacated by Sen. Don Kidd, says Dials was placed on administrative leave right after the mishap. After Weber raised a stink, the Carlsbad cops faxed a revised report on the matter to the Carlsbad Current-Argus--this time with Dials' name included.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Republicans have been scoring the ABQ Journal for ignoring the millions of dollars Big Bill has taken in via campaign contributions and for his Moving America Forward PAC. But they were gleeful over the weekend when Journal investigative reporter Thom Cole hit hard and explored the links between Big Bill’s contributors and the awarding of a state legal contract. Subscribers can read the story here.

AND FOLLOW IT SOME MORE

And if Big Bill has so much dough on hand, (and he does) how come he didn’t let Dem State House candidate Janet Blair know that before she quit her race against GOP Rep. Eric Youngberg citing a lack of money as the reason? That's the question posed by one deep insider who offers this interesting speculation.

“I thought the Gov was prepared to back any viable Dem candidate? If they had done their homework I assume they would have realized that Youngberg was vulnerable. Did they abandon her in hopes of getting someone else in the race? If so, then who? And will that person get the dough they need to run against Youngberg? I can't imagine the Gov backing off from a chance to take out a Dendahlite (ex-chair of the state GOP). A favor to (State GOP Rep.) Joe Thompson maybe? "

Big Bill's PAC was indeed set up with the express aim of helping Hispanic politicos, but he recently announced money would be given to Anglo State Rep. Tom Swisstack, so the speculation by my deep insider from the Westside is intriguing.

The Guv did go light on Thompson when he was busted for DWI this year and Thompson and Youngberg are buddies. As for Youngberg being vulnerable, it’s true that most first-termers are, but from this corner Youngberg, along with State Rep. Tom Anderson and State Sen. Joe Carraro, have scored major points by coming on strong for Westside road relief and perhaps even a separate city for the long-suffering drivers out there.

The Democratic Party State Central Committee members from the Westside and Corrales district will get to name a replacement to take on Youngberg, if they choose to do so. Word is Bernalillo County Dem Party Chair Linda Lopez is looking. We'll keep you posted.

CAMPAIGN LAUGHS

Finally today, here's some brilliant bipartisan relief on the Prez race in movie form. Sit back and have a Monday laugh

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Rep. Youngberg
It's going to be a busy summer for some members of the Democratic Party Central Committee as yet another Dem has decided to drop out of a State House contest. TV news reporter Janet Blair is telling friends she is exiting the race, leaving freshman GOP State Rep. Eric Youngberg unchallenged, at least until the Dem Central Committee comes up with a replacement candidate.

Blair of Corrales was seen as a possible threat to Youngberg because of her high name ID. But Youngberg's advocates say they were ready to paint her as an ultra liberal out-of-touch with the Westside district. Whatever the case, it won't be proven this time as Blair will not be on the ballot. Exactly why Janet is getting out has not yet been made clear.

Blair joins labor leader Carter Bundy in withdrawing from a State House race. Also, State. Rep. James Taylor will leave a vacant spot on the ballot when he gets kicked up to the State Senate. New Dem candidates for all three House seats will be picked by the Dem Central Committee. Bernalillo County Dem Chair Linda Lopez is saying the party will not let the R's go unchallenged. Insiders say the Dem candidate for the Taylor House seat could be picked by next week, with the others being filled after the Democratic National Convention.

The new D candidates will be picked by the central committee members who live in the House districts.

NO SENATE SNUBS HERE

Sen. Sanchez
"It was not a snub," of State Rep. James Taylor says State Sen. Michael Sanchez about his comments on who should replace Manny Aragon in the Senate. We wrote about those comments Tuesday.(see below) Sanchez was asked by a reporter from the Valencia County News-Bulletin for possible candidates the Valencia County Commission should entertain as a Manny replacement. Sanchez did not mention Taylor. Here's what he said:

"Sen. Michael Sanchez, D-Dist. 29, said regarding the commission's nomination that "there are a lot of people in Bosque Farms area who would make a good senator. Those he suggested were Gary Daves, chairman of the commission, who is not seeking re-election, and former New Mexico Reps. Al Otero and Richard LeDoux."

Taylor's friends took that as a slight from the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. But Sanchez tells me he was asked specifically by the reporter about who from Bosque Farms might make good replacements. "I did not talk to the commission, just the reporter." he said. "I am going to talk to James and if he thinks I can be of assistance with the Commission I will be."

The Aragon seat is in both Bernalillo and Valencia counties. Tuesday night the Bernalillo County Commission recommended to Big Bill that Taylor fill out Manny's term, left vacant when Manny became Prez of NM Highlands University. The Valencia commission also gets to recommend a candidate with Big Bill making the final selection. Democratic Party Central Committee members from the Manny district will decide who will replace him on the November ballot for the four year term starting in 2005. Taylor is expected to win that recommendation.

NAVA RENEWED

Another State Senator is in the blog news. Cynthia Nava of Las Cruces received some warm welcomes from fellow lawmakers when she turned up at a meeting of the Legislative Finance Committee this week. Nava has been battling cancer in her sinus cavity but after two surgeries has recovered and is ready to get back to her legislative duties. "She told me she is feeling fine," reported one politico.

POLITICAL WEDDING BELLS

Bride-to-be Houilston
ABQ City Councilor Brad Winter, 51, is ending his bachelor days this week with friends reporting he will walk down the aisle, (or at least in front of a District Court judge) with his longtime lady, attorney Nann Houilston. In addition to a new wife, Winter is taking on a new job. He has left ABQ's La Cueva High where he was an assistant principal and is now working for ABQ Public Schools in its capital outlay division. Houliston, 45, used to work for the City of Albuquerque in utility law and is now in private practice. Winter has a son from a previous marriage.

Winter's friends are also telling me not to rule out Republican Winter for a run for ABQ Mayor next year. "It's something he's thought about," said one. If he does, there won't be any family fights as Brad's new wife is also a Republican.

GET IT RIGHT, JOE

Some of my early morning readers Wednesday caught me in an error. Imagine that! Peter Camejo is Ralph Nader's VP running mate, not the running mate of Green Party Prez contender David Cobb. Thanks for the e-mails correcting my error. As penance, I will read the platforms of all the political parties cover-to cover. Have a great weekend. And, as always, thanks for tuning in.

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Storm clouds continue to gather in the form of polling numbers for NM Republicans hoping to take this Democratic state and put it in the George Bush column. The latest Zogby poll (see below) offers no comfort, showing the Prez remains seven points behind Kerry with very few voters undecided. But, according to some R's, Ralph Nader could offer a gleam of hope for the Prez's lagging effort here, if some astute and bold GOP members take action.

"Nader is not a sure thing to make the NM ballot. He has to turn in thousands of petition signatures (14,527 by Sept. 7) if he is going to make it. It's a given among Republicans that a vote for Nader is a vote for our President. There have been stirrings by Republicans in other states to make sure Nader gets on their ballots, but so far there seems to be a devil-may-care attitude toward him here. I think that's a mistake and I hope the Party gets more aggressive because that is what it's going to take to keep this state out of Kerry's hands," explained one top GOP stalwart.

In Nevada this week it was disclosed that a Republican political consultant came up with cash to help Nader's successful petition effort. And from Michigan comes word that the R's there are also lending a helping hand to the consumer advocate's Prez effort. But all has ben quiet on the NM front with at least no public word that NM R's will cozy up to liberal Nader to further their conservative cause. Of course, the state party was decimated by an internal power struggle this past year and has only recently regrouped.

Meanwhile, Carol Miller, co-chair of the NM Green Party, tells "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" that she and the Nader campaign are "pretty confident" that they will make the New Mexico grade. "The bar is pretty high, but we think we an get as many as 25,000 signatures for Ralph. We gathered over 20,000 for (Green Party Guv candidate) David Bacon in 2002. We see this as a similar challenge," Miller noted from her base in northern NM.

She also said Nader supporters will swarm NM as the deadline nears to make sure the signatures are gathered. "Road Trip for Ralph" is the moniker the petition gatherers go under as they travel from state-to-state collecting hundreds of thousand signatures.

RALPH'S REASONS

Miller pointed out that Nader is not the Green Party nominee as he was four years ago. Texas lawyer David Cobb will carry that banner this time and Hispanic Peter Camejo, who has visited NM several times, is Nader's VP candidate.

Miller is aware of how the GOP could benefit from a Nader candidacy, but says that is a concern for down the road. "People should be concerned first about furthering our democratic system and making sure candidates like Ralph can be placed on the ballot."

She also takes a dig at ardent Kerry supporters who say 'Anybody But Bush.' "Do they really mean anybody?" Asks Miller. "Having Ralph on the ballot will make all the candidates better." But in a bow to political reality she also mused: "What if Kerry is ahead by 17 points in October? Wouldn't a lot of people want to cast votes for a true anti-war candidate like Ralph?"

A lot did in 2000 when Nader managed to snag 4% of the NM Prez vote. That's 21,251 votes in a state Al Gore only won by 366. R's are convinced Nader off the ballot could have ominous results for W.

A 17 point Kerry lead may not be in the cards, but right now he is up seven and without Nader on he ballot the comfort zone grows. The political pros in the state GOP may want to think about that when they come back from their summer vacations.

Meantime, Miller says you can call her at 505-660-5988 if interested in helping Nader make the ballot here.

FRESH NM PREZ POLL

Here are your exclusive numbers from the Zogby Interactive Poll tracking the NM Prez race every two weeks. The poll was released yesterday (July 14). Kerry leads Bush 49% to 42%, with Nader at 3 and undecided just 6%. In the last Zogby poll released June 20, Kerry was at 50%, Bush 43 and Nader 1% and 3% undecided. Very little change. But in all four NM polls conducted by Zogby, Kerry has either led or tied Bush. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 4.3%. A poll of NM from American Research Group (see my July 12 report) also has Kerry leading by seven points.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

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State Rep. James Taylor doesn't know the shoe size of Manny Aragon, and he isn't about to ask. That's because Taylor, a ten year veteran of the State House who will be recommended to Big Bill to fill the Aragon State Senate seat by the Bernalillo County Commission tonight, doesn't plan on filling the legendary Aragon's shoes.

"James Taylor is not Manny Aragon. I will never replace him. He will always be one of my heroes because of the way he advocated for people without a voice," Taylor declared in a late-night conversation that covered his political future and the inner workings of our beloved La Politica.

Aragon has ascended to the presidency of NM Highlands University after a thirty year run in the NM State Senate that will go down in NM history as one of the most productive as well as one of the most controversial of any elected public official since we became a territory in the 1800's.

Taylor makes the move up with a bit of hesitation. After all, he has to give up his position as House Majority Whip and a possible shot at the House Speakership in the years ahead. But the Senate comes with a four year term, not two, and the prospect of a rapid rise in the leadership given the aging lions who populate that 42 member body. In fact, Taylor, 38, will soon become the youngest NM state senator.

But it could have been an even younger contender. Sources deep on the inside tell me that ABQ City Councilor Eric Griego, hearing that Taylor might not be fully committed to the jump, put a word in with Big Bill for himself. But Taylor quickly shut the door and Griego, who may have seen an opportunity like Taylor to make a statewide move down the road, will
continue to mull over a candidacy for Mayor of ABQ next year.

PATIENCE EQUALS POWER
Manny
Taylor is nothing if not a legislative junkie who enjoys the political game as much as Big Bill who will be glad to have Taylor in the Senate, but is also not upset that the feisty Taylor, who did not shy away from challenging him on occasion, will have a less public pulpit, at least until he pays some Senate dues.

Taylor says he has the patience to wait his turn in the Senate. Why not? With Manny and Richard Romero gone and social security checks awaiting many other top dogs, Taylor's turn may come sooner rather than later.

No doubt that caught the eye of State Sen. Michael Sanchez who represents Valencia County and whose county commission will also get to recommend a Manny replacement to Big Bill because part of that county falls in the senate district. Sanchez mentioned several possible replacements for Taylor to the commission and Taylor's name was noticeably absent.

But Taylor is ignoring the possible snub and preparing to "represent the rural interests" that dominate his district. He hopes to pick up a vote or two when the Valencia panel recommends, but he's a lock at tonight's Bernalillo County meeting, and more important, he has a lock on the one vote that counts--Big Bill's.

By appointment of the Guv, Taylor will finish out Manny's Term which ends this year. Taylor must be selected by the ten members of the Democratic Party Central Committee who live in the Senate district to replace Manny on the November ballot for the four year term up for grabs. That too is a done deal and expected within days.

REPLACING TAYLOR: ALLIGATORS SPEAK

It took a while, but finally the South Valley Alligators have surfaced now that Taylor is a Senate sure thing. That little bout of hesitation from Taylor on his bump-up put a damper on speculation on who would replace him in the House. But now the Alligators arise and I have the exclusive info on who is jockeying for power.

First on the list is Ralph Sigala, a 61 year old Ph.D., and vice-president of student affairs at UNM and a former director of the UNM Valencia County campus. Dr. Ralph served on the ABQ School Board back in the 80's and friends say he is working to get to the State House. Taylor speaks highly of him. And is there a Gallegos in the House? They'd like to have one. Dickie Gallegos, brother of outgoing Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos, is an associate superintendent with the Albuquerque Public Schools, and also making his move for the Taylor seat as is Ernest Chavez, a 67 year old retired city of ABQ employee and longtime Valley political operative.

Insiders score this one for Sigala, but I add my customary caution about predicting anything that is going to happen when it comes to ABQ South Valley political power plays.

Talk on the street has it that the remaining months of Taylor's House term will not be filled, that the Bernalillo County Commission will choose to keep it vacant and let the Democratic Party Central Committee name a Taylor replacement for the two year term on the line in the November balloting. The Republicans have little hope of picking up the House seat, but express guarded optimism about Republican Fernando C de Baca, who will face Taylor in November for the Manny Senate seat. Dems call that wishful thinking.

It's true that no one will soon or maybe ever demonstrate the legislative acumen or ability of Manny Aragon. But it's also true that the time is long overdue for a new generation of New Mexican politicians to enter the game. James Taylor is about to be given the ball. Let's see if he can write a play book.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

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Big Bill fell victim to his own hype Friday when he said John Kerry and John Edwards were the first Prez team to campaign together in our fair state, according to top NM Republicans hot under the collar about the Guv's boast widely reported in NM media.

These R's point out that George Bush and Dick Cheney campaigned together back in August of 2000 in Las Cruces, making them the first Prez team to walk the soil of La Politica together. Turns out they are right as this piece from the August 20, 2000 ABQ Journal demonstrates.

"MESILLA — Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush and running mate Dick Cheney reached out to Hispanic voters and others Saturday in southern New Mexico with a message of "inclusiveness and unity."

Big Bill, caught up in the frenzy of the moment as some 10,000 supporters of the Dem Prez team rallied at the the Hispanic Cultural Center, may have fuzzy recall of his NM Prez campaign history, but he and other insider Dems are smiling over the latest Prez poll numbers. The American Research Group (ARG) survey confirms the deep trouble Bush is in here with Democrats. Now no one expects the Prez to carry the D's but he has to get a sizable chunk of them in overwhelmingly Democratic NM to grab our precious five electoral voters,

But the ARG survey, conducted July 6 through 8, backs up what the Zogby interactive poll has been showing--only 12% of the D's polled here say they will vote for the Prez. Simply put, he cannot win this state with such a low percentage. The question arises what will peel them off at this relatively late stage?

WHAT WILL THEY DO?

The Bush campaign apparently thinks a tough negative campaign will. They took out a full page attack ad against Kerry in the ABQ newspapers last week. That showed the political community here the Bushies are in a fix. When was the last time any political campaign of note spent big bucks advertising in the newspapers? It's just not done. But Kerry, according to two polls now, has solidified the Dem base, and in the ARG polls he beats Bush with independents 49% to 38%. In the overall horse race, Kerry has a seven point lead over the Prez. Zogby also has it for Kerry by a similar margin

Some politicos have put the heat on this blog for running the Zogby numbers, saying the interactive nature of the poll, relying on e-mail, is not scientific. But how can they explain it away when a poll conducted by conventional means shows the same thing?

My unscientific gut has been telling me that New Mexico may not remain a swing state when we hit October. While it is too early to put our Enchanted Land in the Kerry column, all objective analysis points in that direction,. Of course, there is time for the Bush team to rebound, but they have to be concerned that already too much of the available vote is nailed down. Only 6% of the NM electorate says it is undecided, according to ARG and Zogby. Don't be surprised if some of the national analysts starting calling NM a 'lean Kerry" state in the weeks ahead.

BOTTOM LINE

Whitney Cheshire, who grabbed a moment of fame, when she was named to replace Tom Carroll as executive director of the NM Republican Party after a staff purge by new Chairman Allen Weh, is no longer associated with the state GOP or, according to R sources, with the NM Bush campaign where she went to work when Greg Graves took over as permanent executive director.

Cheshire previously worked in PR for then congressional candidate and now Congressman Steve Pearce and 2001 ABQ Mayoral candidate Mike McEntee.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

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They just won't let Greg be Greg. The controversial former ABQ City Councilor looked all set for a free ride to the Roundhouse when he handily defeated an opponent in the June 1st GOP primary for the State House seat being vacated by Joe Thompson. And he was ready to hit the hammock for the summer when he heard the Dem running for the far ABQ NE Heights seat, Carter Bundy, decided to withdraw after winning his primary.

But Payne can get off easy street and get ready to burn some more shoe leather, if Bernalillo County Democratic Party Chair and Sate Senator Linda Lopez has her way. In an e-mail to "NM Politics With Joe Monahan, Linda says Greg's vacation may soon be over: "We are currently working on Carter's replacement. I am meeting with a few folks this week and next. We will have a Democrat to run in HD 31."

It's up to members of the Democratic Party Central Committee who reside in the House district to name a replacement by early August. Judging from the Lopez e-mail, Payne, who is still favored to win easily in the heavy R district, may need to hire a baby sitter for his newborn daughter because the D's plan on keeping him busy. Maybe Payne can write his campaign lit when he's doing those 2 a.m. feedings.

THE COWBOY RIDES AWAY

Old-timers remember the influence John Mershon wielded in the NM Legislature in the 70's and 80's and are taking notice of his passing this week at the age of 95. A lot of praise for the Democrat is coming from Republicans who recall how he joined with the R's to form the famous "Cowboy Coalition" to oust the liberal "Mama Lucy" gang from the House leadership for a while in the early 80's.

Here's an e-mail being shared around the state by these R's: "He served as Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee during the early days of the coalition’s rule of the House. He put a meat cleaver out on a piece of wood as a symbol to state bureaucrats and liberals that he was gonna take a meat axe to the state budget. During the early days of his career, the Mama Lucy gang got so incensed at him that they refused to give him an office in the capitol. John didn’t take crap from anybody and lived the western American dream."

The AP reported: "John Mershon, once one of New Mexico's most powerful legislators as head of finance committees, has died. Mershon, who served in the New Mexico House of Representatives for 24 years, died Tuesday. The Democrat from Otero County was a member of the House from 1959 through 1982, and was on the House Appropriations Committee and the powerful Legislative Finance Committee for most of that time, including stints as chairman of both.

His presence in southern New Mexico harkens back to 1938, when the then 29-year-old arrived in Mayhill to work in a lumber mill with this father."

Coalition politics came back in the Legislature in 2000 when Manny Aragon was ousted as Senate Pro Tem and replaced by Richard Romero who got the post with the support of the Republicans. Whether the Senate coalition will survive the departure of Aragon and Romero next year remains to be seen.

NPR: THEY CAN MOVE MOUNTAINS

National Public Radio (NPR) set up its microphones at the famed Frontier restaurant in ABQ in late June, within viewing distance of our famous Sandia Mountains. But that didn't stop the hip East Coast network from calling them the "Sangre De Cristo Mountains" in a report on the Presidential battle being waged here. But besides the geography mistake NPR did just fine, giving valuable insight on this swing state. They interviewed UNM professor Chris Garcia and Dem attorney and party activist Moe Maestas, among others. Here's the full seven minute NPR report

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Congressional contender Richard Romero will get a sliver of the national spotlight Saturday when he delivers, in Spanish, the response to the Prez's weekly five minute radio address. The Romero retort will air on Spanish-language radio outlets around the nation. Romero's camp has not yet released where the speech can be heard on the ABQ radio dial. He will get the Prez's speech in advance, but his response may not deal all that much with what the Prez actually says because Romero will want to talk about the newly formed Dem Prez team of Kerry and Edwards. The national Dems, still hoping to oust Republican Heather Wilson, gave Romero the radio job in hopes of boosting his profile here and also to woo Hispanics around the nation to Kerry-Edwards.

VALLEY GUYS

When they arrive at the Hispanic Cultural Center in ABQ Friday night, the two senators will be basking in the glow of a very favorable press that always comes right after a national ticket is formed. It will be Kerry's second visit to the state this year. It's his first trip to the ABQ Valley and a direct play for the Hispanic voters he will need in November. For Edwards, it's stop number two in the Valley, having campaigned there during the NM Dem Prez Caucuses in February.

Kerry of New England will need help in nailing down the Hispanic vote. Expect to see old warhorse and Hispanic favorite Senator Ted Kennedy come back and rally for Kerry as he did during the caucuses. But it is the true swing vote around ABQ, the Anglo independents and moderate D's and Republicans, that remain the challenge and perhaps the key to victory.

THE EARLY ANCHOR

There's a new face in the anchor chair at KASA Channel 2 in ABQ. Jeremy Jojola, a NM native, takes over co-anchoring duties this week replacing John Mason, who has moved on to Minnesota. KASA is a Fox affiliate with a news sharing arrangement with NBC affiliate KOB-TV where Jojola will remain on staff. The Fox 9 p.m. news has become popular with early risers in the state and has also given KOB another outlet for its news material adding to its presence in the ABQ market as everyone looks for a n edge in the ratings game. I interviewed with Jojola over the holiday weekend when KOB-TV did a story about blogs in ABQ. The NMSU grad told me he has been with KOB for two years. Jojola will co-anchor the nightly news with Jessica Kartalia.

FIREWORKS IN STEREO

The big fireworks bash at Balloon Fiesta park in ABQ over the weekend was touted as the state's biggest, but the city did not have the bragging rights to itself. Sandia Casino also put on a fireworks show. In fact, as Kathy and I were watching the explosions above the park we looked north and saw the exact same dazzling fireworks being displayed. The city needed to get Sandia Pueblo's permission for its fireworks show because it was set up on pueblo land. Little did it know that it would be competing with the Pueblo for biggest and best display. But the celebrants certainly did not mind the competition as it brightened the skies in a spectacular fashion.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Chavez
There’s still a chance that the battle for a NM Supreme Court seat could turn out to be hotly contested, but don’t count on it. That's because Republican Ned Fuller doesn’t have much money to count while his opponent, Justice Ed Chavez, appointed to fill a vacancy on the court by Big Bill, has a stack of the green stuff totaling $165,000. That’s about a 25 to one advantage over Fuller who has just $6,000 on hand and an equal amount of debt.

Back in February we wrote of the possibility that Fuller, 38, could get big bucks from U.S. Chamber of Commerce backed groups to take out Democrat and trial lawyer Chavez, (See my Feb. 6 report in my archives) but so far it appears the sources floating that story were blowing smoke. It’s true that such groups got involved in a big way in an Ohio Supreme Court battle, but Fuller tells me he “has had no contact” with any such organizations or individuals, never mind getting any of their cash.

The Chavez campaign used that Feb. report to raise money and, who knows, it may have been planted with us for that very reason. Nothing like a good right-wing scare to free-up that loose trial lawyer change. Not that Chavez, 47, is not favored to win anyway. There are no Republicans on the five member court and none has been up there since the 1980's.

But Fuller did have one arrow in his quiver that he fired effectively at Chavez: drug testing for judges in the wake of the cocaine arrest of Bernalillo County Chief District Judge John Brennan. But Chavez did not take the bait and agreed to take a drug test as did Fuller.

Looking at history, political pros say an Anglo Republican like Fuller, running against a Hispanic Democrat, should break the 40% mark with or without significant money. But the magic number is 50% and it appears Fuller and the GOP are going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat to get there, or else make some urgent phone calls to the Chamber of Commerce.

KERRY/EDWARDS: AN EARLY NM KILL?

Big Bill is managing expectations when it comes to how Senators Kerry and Edwards will do in our Land of Enchantment come Election Night. Last night on CNN, Richardson predicted a Kerry win here but only "narrowly." Bill says most polls have the race here essentially tied, but that he would work to "get out the base" and help put Kerry over the top. The Big Guy had to be disappointed as he was passed over early by Kerry for the number two spot, but he is a pro and will be expected to bring this state home. If he shows any hesitation, it would damage his reputation among Democrats nationally so even a disappointed Big Bill will be a powerful weapon for Kerry here.

Ironically, most informed Republicans I have spoken with predict a Kerry win here, while the Dems are pessimistic about Kerry's chances. The R's see the Democratic base charged up with many R's only lukewarm for the Prez. If that's the case, the trends will become clear soon enough and NM would fall off the list of "battleground states." That would mean a lot less Presidential presence here during the final months. It's not written in stone that we will stay a 'swing' state the entire campaign. Remember, NM has voted for the Dem nominee three times in a row and has a Dem governor and legislature. If Team Kerry cannot bring this Dem state into line early it could point to another cliffhanger nationally or a Bush victory. Stay tuned.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The stock of one major NM political figure is on the rise as John Kerry picked North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate today. Attorney General Patricia Madrid is in for a more noticeable role in the coming campaign and the chance to continue to boost her profile here as she casts about for her next political opportunity. She was an early and ardent supporter of trial lawyer Edwards who campaigned here for the February NM Dem Prez caucuses, including a stop in Barelas in the ABQ Valley. Edwards had an active NM organization led by Madrid who campaigned around the state for him and cut radio spots touting his credentials. But Edwards did not exactly electrify state Dems who gave him just 10% of their votes in those caucuses placing him fourth in the field.

Madrid was also not shy in helping Edwards raise money in NM, particularly among the legal community. Edwards' campaigned on a theme of "two America's," in which the lower and middle classes struggled while the wealthy were on easy street. Coming from a rural state like North Carolina, Edwards may be able to help Kerry in southern NM, the most conservative area of the state and the one in which Bush is going to go for blow-out numbers in order to win here. While the Edwards selection puts Madrid back in play in Prez politics, she does not one-up her longtime political rival, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish. Diane was one of the first to hop on the Kerry bandwagon here.

CNN is reporting today that the new Dem ticket will visit New Mexico Friday. Read more of my analysis of the Edwards pick and its impact on NM in today's ABQ Tribune

Big Bill's withdrawal from the Veep race was seen as grandstanding in many media quarters where it was said he never really had a chance. But the Big Guy did do the state a favor by having the Dems conduct a caucus here early, especially that now one of the candidates who campaigned here and knows our state better has been chosen as the number two man today.

NAMING NAMES....OR NOT

Brennan
TV insiders report that KRQE-TV investigative reporter Larry Barker is mulling over naming more names contained in that 1998 law enforcement report alleging cocaine sniffing in judicial circles when the station debuts its new investigative show, "48 Hours New Mexico," Wednesday, July 7 at 8 p.m.

Bernalillo County Chief District Judge John Brennan was already named by the station as one of those in the report. They did that on the basis that he had already been arrested for the crime and therefore, the "unverified information" in the report had ben verified. But it is a much tricker issue with three other district court judges, several defense attorneys and some state legislators who are also reportedly named in that report which was based on information provided by an informant to law enforcement investigating drug dealing in NM.

Barker, if he doesn't name names, may "make it clear who he is talking about," according to one insider. No government agency has announced it will take a look at that 98' report leaving it to Barker and other intrepid types types to dig deeper and report whether the names contained in it are still on the job and whether the report has credible information. But that really isn't Barker's job or that of the press. Taxpayers already pony up plenty for law enforcement and the courts. Why can't they do their job, or at least hire Barker to do it for them?

DRINK OF CHOICE: JACK & COKE

And in a another note on the court coke scandal, KRQE-TV is reporting that Brennan was indeed driving drunk when he was picked up for coke possession in late May. They say his blood alcohol level was twice the legal limit, but Santa Fe District Attorney Henry Valdez, the special prosecutor in the case, refuses to confirm that. Perhaps Valdez has good reasons,(we'd like to hear them) but this is public information. Some reporters are wondering whether Valdez is aware that his political future may also be on the line as he handles this highest profile case of his career.

According to KRQE, the first episode of "48 Hours New Mexico," modeled after the CBS program "48 Hours," will focus on "cocaine use among New Mexico's high society." Well, cocaine use, yes. But 'high society?' Or is that a take on the word "high."

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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The Fourth of July week is one of the lowest watched TV weeks of the year, but that isn't stopping the Kerry campaign from putting up a TV ad just for NM that stresses the senator's foreign policy experience. Kerry and Bush have both been dark in the key battleground states, which includes NM, but because an anti-Kerry group has bought $150 k of TV bashing the soon-to-be Dem Prez nominee, the Kerry camp felt it had to go up on the air holiday or no holiday. Here's the details

WANTED: VOTING VETS

If there is any chunk of votes Gary King will have a hard time peeling away from GOP Congressman Steve Pearce it's the veterans. Pearce served in Vietnam as a fighter pilot, is a staunch supporter of big appropriations for the various military installations scattered in the southern NM congressional district and is an ardent fan of the Prez whose strongest support here is in the southeastern counties.

Democrat King knows he has to get some of that vote to have any chance so he is hitting early and on this fourth of July holiday with this "Veterans for King" group. NM is home to close to 200,000 vets. King points out that veterans in the big district often have to drive over 200 miles to Albuquerque or El Paso to get medical care. However, he does not say specifically what he would do to correct but will "fight for the very best healthcare for our veterans." By the way, one of the co-chairs of the King vets group is, like Steve Pearce, a Vietnam vet.

BLOGS ARE US

Those of us who write political blogs have come under a lot of scrutiny of late as this new media shows its muscle. ABQ Tribune political reporter Shea Andersen, representing the new generation of journalists, is an avid blog watcher and e mails in this interesting piece from American Journalism Review analyzing the impact of the political blogosphere.

LET FREEDOM RING!

Happy Birthday, America. Is there a better place to be than our beautiful Land of Enchantment for a summer holiday? I hope you find time to relax and enjoy the birthday celebrations with family and friends. I plan to do so and will be absent from this corner for a couple of days. I will pick things up sometime next week. If you want to join a public festivity, here's the details on the big July 4th bash sponsored by the City of Albuquerque.
And for those of you with travel plans in the weeks ahead, let me get a plug in for our sponsor Enterprise rent-a-car. They have the best rates in NM and great service too. To make your reservation just click on their icon on this page for their phone number.

If you are in need of a political hit this holiday feel free to browse my archives. And, again, Happy Birthday to America where we are thankful each day that freedom still rings.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And thanks for e-mailing me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author