New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Ousted Rio Arriba County magistrate Tom Rodella is causing a new set of problems for Big Bill. The husband of Dem State Rep Debbie Rodella claims the Guv knew his background was checkered with all kinds of wrongdoing when he appointed him to the bench in March. Rodella embarrased the Guv when he was recently forced to resign because of his checkered past. The story was breaking fast Wednesday night in the Espanola's Rio Grande Sun. Here's an excerpt.

"Gov. Richardson knew about the problems in Thomas Rodella's past when Richardson appointed the former State Police officer to be a judge March 31, Rodella said Tuesday, flatly contradicting numerous statements from Richardson's office. "I answered all the Governor's questions as pertained to the investigations in my State Police career," Rodella said. "I answered them truthfully. He did know."

A former wife filed a suit against Rodella in the 1980s, accusing him of repeated violent abuse. After he married his current wife, now a state representative, Rodella was repeatedly investigated by State Police for a variety of infractions, including ticket-fixing. Richardson knew about it all, Rodella said, and knew about it before Rodella ever applied to be a Rio Arriba magistrate." Reports the Sun.

FOURTH FLOOR REACT

The Guv's office is calling all this "complete fiction." And after his past escapades, Rodella has little credibility. What is more intriguing to Alligators in the North is the impact this could have on Rep. Debbie Rodella's 06' re-election bid. In the wake of her husband's fall from grace she has drawn a challenge from veteran Rio Arriba politico Moises Morales. Will Tom Rodella's ratting on Big Bill mean Debbie loses the Guv's support (and cash raising prowess) to Moises? On the flip side, the Rodella rat job is a sign of the continuing problems Big Bill has had in uniting the North behind him. Guv candidates Eli Chavez and Bengie Regensburg are warming up in the bullpen to throw some more hardballs at the Big Fella. Stay tuned.

LEGISLATIVE JET SET
Cessna Bravo Jet
NM General Services Department Cabinet Secretary Eddie Lopez Jr. blogs in to us as the Big Bill administration continues to fight back against public perception that they went overboard in buying a $5.5 million jet plane. Lopez reacts to that Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) report carried here that said the Big Bill jet would cost more to operate than the current state plane.

"I personally directed the procurement of the new state jet and negotiated the price and terms earlier this year. Please permit me to correct the LFC staff’s irrelevant and questionably motivated report that the new jet aircraft will cost more to operate than propeller driven counterparts.

Included in the jet purchase deal is an operations cost guarantee that the Cessna Bravo jet will cost no more to fuel and maintain than a new King Air 350 turboprop. If fuel and maintenance costs exceed the amount the General Services Department would spend to fuel and maintain a new King Air, Cessna agreed to refund the difference for three years. This fact is worth repeating: Cessna agreed to refund the difference," blogged Secretary Lopez.

Interesting that he calls into question the motivation of the LFC staff. It's the Guv's Dem party that controls the Legislature. But then Eddie is now a member of the Big Bill party. It was ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro who requested the LFC plane analysis, which Eddie, son of the late legendary Santa Fe state senator Eddie Lopez, now claims was not the plain truth. Stay tuned. This story has wings.

BRAD AND MARTY: BOTH WRONG?

News that City Councilor and mayoral wannabe Brad Winter and Mayor Marty are both backing legislation to restrict how petition signatures are gathered to place issues and candidates on the ABQ ballot is quickly drawing fire. They are in a frenzy about the forgery that has marred the minimum wage petition effort, but their call to ban people from getting paid to collect signatures sounds blatantly unconstitutional to some. And Winter's proposal to have people register with the city before they even go out and collect signatures is also seen as a big loser in court.

"Politicians forget that the people have a right to petition the government. It's up to the government to weed out any fraud or corruption on these petitions, not to restrict our rights in asking for consideration of issues or to place candidates on the ballot. If the mayor and council are so worried about fraudulent signatures they might want to voluntarily check each and every signature they submit Friday to get on the October ballot. I bet there are more than a few bad ones," blasted one politico involved in past petition gathering.

He has a point. Where in the Constitution does it say you have to tell the government you plan on petitioning it? A big thumbs down to Mayor Marty, Councilors Mayer, Cummins and Winter on this one. No wonder Rio Rancho and the ABQ suburbs are kicking ABQ's butt.

HOUSE OF PAYNE

Now two of the GOP's hot talkers are on the radio. ABQ State Rep Greg Payne, always ready to throw down the gauntlet, is back on New Mexico radio giant 770 KKOB-AM radio every Saturday at 1 p.m. Payne was brought in to replace Dem Mayor Marty who is on the campaign trail. But the freshman lawmaker says it's no endorsement of the mayor and he will be doing his own thing. Payne joins State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair on the airwaves. Rod hosts his radio talk on low power outtlet KEDU-LP 102.3 FM in Ruidoso. Are the liberal Dems going to let that duo have it all to themselves?

Remember to email me your political news, opinions, and thoughts.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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You Know Who
The guns of August are about to be fired by ABQ Mayor Marty. And they will be supplied by a stack of campaign money that will be dumped on all media. He told supporters Tuesday the campaign aims to raise a final, astounding total of $1.2 million to battle what he expects to be a very nasty and accusation filled final stretch. He also told supporters his TV ads will start in early August and stay on until the October 4 election. He indicated he will have as many as ten, if not more, TV spots in rotation. If no candidate gets 40% there will be a run-off between the top two contenders. Mayor Marty is obviously going for the 40% with a multi-media blitz. He has already raised $700K so hitting the $1.2 million goal is not unrealistic.

What is interesting is the willingness of the givers. When the mayor ran into a buzz saw in the form of the ABQPAC scandal, his supporters feared it would hurt his future fundraising because people would not want to be associated with him after his ethics board reprimand. On the contrary.

THE ALLIGATORS ANALYZE

"That is a huge pot of money and puts the field on notice that all charges coming his way will be answered. He will take heat for raising so much cash, but in the end the voters will decide on what is said, and Marty is going to have a megaphone to blast home his message. Still, an incumbent with high name ID is capped in how much he can grow his vote. Marty's campaign is more about hanging on to what he has. Is that 40%? The first polls should tell us," analyzed a senior Alligator who has been eyeing these things since we started them back in 74'.

Another Alligator bemoaned the big spending. "How in God's name do you spend that kind of money in a medium size city to become mayor? Does he plan on banking some of it for a future race?" mused the stunned Gator.

Our insider reports the mayor defended his big spending saying he is going to take hits from all directions, including "soft money" from opposition groups and will need every dime as his opponents gang up on him. Of course, if there is a run-off that will require even more dough.

The mayor's announcement at a breakfast for insiders puts Republican Brad Winter on notice. He is going to have to raise at least several hundred thousand quickly to stay on the playing field. There have been no polls on the race. The Alligators think we may be facing a three way deal, with Judy Espinosa and David Steele perhaps failing to make the ballot because of a lack of petition signatures. If that happens it would be the smallest field ever.

How do you raise a million for mayor? Well, for one thing you sell coffee. "Marty's Blend" was on sale for ten bucks a pound at the insider breakfast. They say it's quite smooth, a contrast to the bitter brew that his opponents are concocting for him.

ON THE BALLOT OR NOT?
ABQ Councilor Heinrich
What people around New Mexico really want to know about the effort to raise the ABQ minimum wage is whether it will make the ballot. Supporters say despite the admission of forgery on several hundred of the over 33,00 signatures they turned in, the bid to hike the minimum to $7.50 an hour appears headed to the Oct. 4 ballot. Here's the latest from ABQ city councilor Martin Heinrich, who supports the wage boost, and has been blogging for us.

"When I e-mailed you last time, I was confident that this proposition would make it onto the ballot. I still am. Not just because of the total number of signatures that were turned in, but more importantly because as the City Clerk's office went through them and about 60% were checking out.

I think anyone that forges someone else's signature should be prosecuted and those signatures that are suspect should not be counted. However, I also don't think that a few bad signatures should ever disenfranchise the honest voters who want this measure on the ballot," blogged the SE Heights councilor who is said to have a run for the Dem nomination for state land commissioner on his mind.

CAN IT PASS?

Meanwhile, the political pros are uncertain how the wage proposal would fare. An unscientific poll conducted via the Internet for KRQE-TV has the measure passing 53% to 45%. "This could be one that splits right down the middle," offered GOP analyst Bruce Donisthorpe. Bruce also adds that forged signatures "happens in just about every race. It's hard to avoid it with overzealous volunteers and even paid workers. The important thing is that there is enough valid signatures. I think this one will make the cut," predicted the onetime gubernatorial and congressional staffer.

RIO RANCHO REDUX

Our recent blogging on Rio Rancho and how it's starting to steal ABQ's thunder has sparked debate in several quarters, including the blogosphere. Although you wonder what there is to debate. Just take a drive out there. Soon there will be a big arena with a downtown business core. Sounds like a city to me. On the ground sources say get ready for more, that Rio Rancho city administrator Jim Palenick did not fall out of an Albuquerque tree.

ON THE AIR

Hard to believe that the ABQ election is just a couple of months away, but it is and we will soon gear up for our 18th consecutive year of delivering live Election Night results to New Mexico over the powerful airwaves of public radio station KANW 89.1 FM. Heck, Rio Rancho was a glint in our eye back in 88'. Top NM Lobbyist Scott Scanland will be with me along with the other usual suspects. I will blog more details as we get closer, but for sure it will be our traditional wall-to-wall coverage.

Thanks to my loyal readers, friends, informed sources, advertisers, supporters and critics for their help in producing this most rewarding effort.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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New Mexico's stance on two key social issues mimics the rest of the USA, but also reveals our conservative streak is alive and well. Poll numbers on abortion and gay marriage from Survey USA were gathered July 8 thru 10. On abortion, New Mexico remains firmly pro-choice. The poll asked: "Who should have the final say on abortion? Your state government? The Federal Government? Or should the government have no say? Sixty-two percent replied "neither." That may sound high, but not compared to California and many other states where neither received 75%. Our 62% puts us on the lower rung of approval.

It's not surprising. We talked about the reluctance among many northern New Mexicans, particularly Catholic Hispanics of a pro-life bent, to support Dem John Kerry in last November's election. What is news to me came from a conversation with longtime pro-lifer Dauneen Dolce of the NM Right to Life Committee. She told me her group did election literature drops at Catholic churches in the north and earned the wrath of several Catholic priests. "A lot of them are Democrats and were mad about us doing it," she said.

That caught my attention because the focus after the election was on how some Catholic priests apparently discouraged parishioners from voting for Kerry because of his abortion views. Combine that with the Right to Life activity and those weak Kerry numbers there come even more sharply into focus.

Dolce told me parental notification remains her current goal. "It passed the senate last session but failed in the House. We will try again," she said of the measure which would require a minor to notify one parent if they planned on having an abortion. The procedure would then be halted for 24 hours. The minor would still have final say on whether to abort. Dolce said with Big Bill in the governor's chair her group has an uphill battle in getting the measure to his desk.

GRIM FOR GAY MARRIAGE

And what about about gay marriage in NM? It seems to be a nonstarter, but not overwhelmingly so. Forty-six percent of those surveyed chose "neither" when asked who should have the final say in gay marriage, the federal or state governments? A majority of 51% chose the government, meaning gay marriage advocates have their work cut out for them. Conservatives may say the opposition number is not high enough. They have a point. Survey USA does not screen for registered voters as rigorously as other polls. That group could be expected to be more opposed to the notion of men and women marrying the same sex.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

They can argue until another bridge is built over the Rio Grande, but the facts speak clearly: money is moving to the northwest in the ABQ metro area. Friday, the stock of Amrep, which owns thousands of acres in Rio Rancho and is a major residential builder there, hit a new 52 week high on the NYSE. ABQ's political gridlock has expedited growth there. All the talk about infill, downtown redevelopment and attracting major new industry within the city limits is mostly talk. (Rio Ranchos's Intel announced more hiring plans Monday). What is happening is the formation of a Dallas-Ft. Worth here. All the government paid economists, think-tank spinners and politicos can argue otherwise, but on Wall Street they're betting on it with their money. Who do you think is right?

LOWERING THE COUNT

Blog reader Alan Schwartz was one of several to react to our call yesterday for a lowering of the petition requirement to get on the ABQ mayoral ballot. After all, it is higher than that for candidates seeking statewide or congressional office. Said Alan: "Given..the bloat in the voter registration rolls (moved, dead) why not tie the signature requirement to actual election participation?

The current 2% of registered requirement equates to almost 6% of votes cast in the last mayoral election. By contrast, 2% of that same vote count would require less than 2,000 signatures."

Well put Alan. And something the next city council might want to take a look at.

BLOG HOUSEKEEPING

At the very top of the page I have included the blogger "search" bar. It can search my site from its inception for anything that has appeared here. So if you are looking for past references to your favorite or not so favorite politicos or news events, just type it in the search box. We're www.joemonahan.com, making blogging improvements since 2003.

Remember to email me your political news, opinions, and thoughts. I'll see you hear Wednesday.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Rep. Rodella
"One Rodella down, one to go," chided a critic of the husband and wife team who are keeping the political buzz going across our Enchanted Land this summer. First, Big Bill forced magistrate judge Tom Rodella, husband of State Rep Debbie Rodella, to hand in his walking papers after questionable ethical behavior. Now comes word that Debbie has drawn a serious challenge in next year's Dem primary for her District 41 seat up North.

Not a few seasoned observers think it was Rodella who cast the most significant vote in the history of the New Mexico legislature. Her last minute switch made possible Indian casinos, an industry that now generates a half billion dollars a year, making it one of the most powerful economic forces in the state.

Rodella will need all her political skills and more as she faces the legendary Moises Morales in the primary. He goes way back and is a former Rio Arriba county commissioner. Others could join the Dem primary against Debbie, diluting the opposition and increasing the odds she could hold on to the seat she has held since 1992. Still, the recent damaging headlines about her husband have put her seat in play and the movida masters of the North are unleashed and hunting.

JUDY ON THE EDGE

Is Judy Espinosa on the endangered list? Could be. She sent out an urgent missive late last week urging her supporters to sign her petitions so she can make the October 4 ABQ mayoral ballot. Judy is not the only one having trouble reaching what seems an onerous 5,811 signatures, or two percent of the city's registered voters. Even R Brad Winter has had to hustle to get signatures, paying pros to hit the streets. Winter should get the number, but David Steele, like Judy, is a question mark. Mayor Marty and Eric Griego appear to be OK. If Judy doesn't make the cut, Griego's campaign will get a major boost as the two liberal Dems could be expected to divvy up many of the same votes. The petition deadline is 5 p.m. Friday.

Meanwhile, over at the ABQ Trib reporter Erik Siemers and I kicked around the prospective mayoral candidacy of 20 year old Dominic Gallegos. I weighed in with the view that we may need to revisit how many signatures we require to run for the city's top job. Candidates are spending too much time getting the signatures and hopefuls who may not be able to win, but have something valuable to say about the city's future, are being excluded. How about lowering the requirement to one percent of the registered voters? Just a thought.

GOODBYE AND HELLO FROM ANDY

Andy Lenderman, the young and aggressive ABQ Journal politics writer, is headed out the door and into a new newsroom. The 31 year old will leave the state's largest newspaper to take up a new position for the Santa Fe New Mexican, covering Los Alamos and the science beat. No word yet on who will replace Lenderman. He had the politics beat for about 15 months. His predecessor, Loie Fecteau, went to work for Big Bill. The beat has been a short-lived one in recent years, not like the old days when the late Bob Beier held forth for decades, followed by a lengthy stint by John Robertson who is now state editor and oversees the paper's political coverage.

YOU'LL WANT TO GO

Poking fun at New Mexico politics is an age-old pastime and it reaches it's zenith at the annual Gridiron Dinner in October. It's put on by the NM Broadcasters Association. You may have noticed their banner here. The dinner proceeds fund scholarships for deserving New Mexican students. It's a fun night featuring the likes of Big Bill and company, skits and music. Get your tickets now by clicking on the banner. And enjoy.

Thanks for stopping by. See you manana.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Heather
ABQ U.S. Rep Heather Wilson is good at raising money. But she will apparently have to do it in the future without the help of her veteran cash collector Jane Altweis. Insiders say Altweis, who goes back to the Rep. Steve Schiff days, is going back to teaching and will no longer be passing the hat for Heather. The sources also say Wilson's legislative director has left. "Jane left early to give Heather time to get a new fundraiser on board in time for the next election. They still expect Patricia Madrid to make the run," reported a D.C. Gator. Dem Attorney General Madrid has not made a formal announcement but is being romanced by top D.C. D's who are desperate to take on Heather, despite the ten point whipping she gave to Richard Romero last year. Madrid is expected to make a decision in September.

BIG BILL'S JET LAG

More PR problems for Big Bill and his new $5.5 Million jet. KOB-TV's Neil Simon with the news that the new Citation Bravo jet will cost $2,000 an hour to operate, compared to $1,000 for the old plane that is being ditched, according to numbers from NM legislative staff. The staff also estimates that it will cost $403,000 a year to operate the new jet, compared to $345,000 for the old plane. And there's more. New Mexico State University, which was supposed to buy an old state plane for half a million dollars, has begged out. That half million was going to be applied to the cost of the new jet. State Aviation director Tom Baca says he will keep trying to sell the plane. They need to. The Legislature approved $5 million for the plane, not the $5.5 mil it's costing.

HE SAID, THEY SAID
Mayor Marty
Did Mayor Marty call R's "rich folks?" Apparently yes, but not at that GOP breakfast that we blogged about yesterday. That's the word from those there, including veteran ABQ Journal city hall reporter Jim Ludwick who does not have a dog in the fight. "Joe, he never made any comment about Republicans being "a rich folks party with rich folks goals," as the GOP news release indicated. The news release was incredibly misleading. I said (to the GOP) I had been at the breakfast and I know Chavez had not made the statements they quoted. Their reply was that Chavez had made the remark on a previous occasion. I asked when it had happened, and I was told that they don't know."

Thanks Jim. Not that Mayor Marty, who backed Howard Dean for Prez, is about to become an R, but the GOP flacks made it sound like Chavez had a tough time at the breakfast and made the rich folks comment there. A mailer out today for candidate Brad Winter quotes the mayor from an Associated Press report from October 2000. “For all of George Bush's attempts to move to the center, the GOP is still predominantly a rich-folks party with rich-folks goals,” the Winter letter quotes the mayor saying as reported by the AP.

IT'S A MIXED UP WORLD

What does this all mean, if anything? Is Mayor Marty a Democrat? Yes. He is a lifelong Democrat. But in this election he needs lots of Republicans to win. Therefore, the R’s supporting Winter will do all they can to keep them out of the Marty column and Marty will veer to the right to keep them. It is bizarre to see Marty’s spinners concerned about his criticism of R’s as “rich folks.” In his twenty years in politics, he has said much rougher stuff about them. But candidates Espinosa and Griego are going to take many of the Dem Hispanics Marty claimed last time, leaving Marty chasing those R votes.

I know. We've really got to get this campaign elevated. How we were dragged into blogging about this ennui I will never know. Must have been a bad pajama day. But since we've already crossed the line, what about the GOP threats to take action against Mayor Marty if he did not turn over an e-mail list he allegedly purloined from the state GOP? They issued an old Western style showdown warning, but it came to naught. Insiders now say: "Just wait. We are biding our time." Really? You know, I can wait on that one.

DIRECT FROM BARELAS

This photo is especially for my out-of-state readers who hunger for the tastes of the homeland. It's a pic via camera phone of my lunch pal's carne adovada burrito at the famed Barelas Coffee House in ABQ. Truly a connoisseurs work. Notice how there is no tomato mixed in with the lettuce? They'll make it any way you want at Barelas. No matter the temperature, the chile's never too hot for the plates or palates of New Mexico. Smother that thing in red and let's party!

Thanks for your company today. Let's get together again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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The already nasty 2005 ABQ mayoral race has claimed another victim. First it was Mayor Marty campaign manager Bridget Cusick hitting the road after clashing with campaign Alligators. Now it's the R's turn. Tammy Forester, executive director of the Bernalillo County Republican Party, is out the door as a result of her involvement in the campaign, according to sources knee-deep in the action. "Tammy was axed by(county chair) Ken Zangara because she got mixed up with last Friday's breakfast for Marty. She let people know about the event and that apparently set off Zangara and company who felt the breakfast hosted by a group of R's and featuring the Democrat mayor was an act of betrayal," explained our source.

The informal breakfast has been going on for a number of years, previously hosted by R activist Seth Heath and now in other hands. But this being an election year our sources report there were some anti-Marty plants placed at the event who baited him. The mayor ended up calling Republicans "rich folks." The state GOP (the Brad Winter campaign in drag) then let loose with a news release blasting the mayor, who refused to rescind his statement. Supporters of the breakfast point out that R Winter had been invited to appear the following week and taking it out on Tammy was unfair.

"This is still a party with battling personalities and factions. Marty probably should have begged off the event and spared himself, but he stepped into a lion's den known as the split Republican party. He was zinged, but Tammy was downright burned. It's really a shame," commented our knee-deep source.

So far, the mayoral campaign has been conducted on the 8th grade level. (Eric Griego and Judy Espinosa excepted) Maybe by the time the voters are paying attention in September the maturity level will improve.

BRAD'S BOOTY
Winter
Meanwhile, inquiring minds want to know what to make of Brad Winter raising just $42,000 for his mayoral bid in his opening month. Is it disappointing? Did he come up short? I'd say a little yes to both queries.

Remember, Winter will be the only R on the ballot and there is a default vote that will go to him of probably 20%, even if he doesn't have gazillions of dollars. He will need a couple of hundred thousand more to get the rest of his vote, so his next round of fundraising is critical. Insiders at the Winter campaign were hoping to raise $100 grand the first month, but ran up against Mayor Marty's money machine which took in over $270K in the last three months, not to mention Big Bill's case collectors who are also on the stump raising millions for his 06'.

As much as it repluses him, Councilor Winter is going to have to hit the phones even harder if he is going to make a race of this thing. And he's going to have to come forth with a message that does not involve the competing viewpoints of the war-torn state GOP. Don't say we didn't tell you.

A BOTTOM LINE

If you don't learn to laugh at trouble, you won't have anything to laugh at when you are old. (Thanks to Tony Olmi) Back tomorrow with more. Keep us posted with those emails and thanks for stopping by.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Jim Baca
As his 60th year rapidly nears the fire still burns for one of New Mexico's premier players of our beloved game of La Politica. And the personality that is conservatively described as prickly is still there too. The mere mention of his name still brings a torrent of opinion. No one is undecided on Jim Baca. And he wouldn't have it any other way. The former ABQ mayor, state land commissioner, state liquor director, mayoral and gubernatorial press secretary, TV news anchor, Clinton appointee and Big Bill appointee as natural resources trustee, has seen it all, done it all and he told me over tall, chilled glasses of ice tea in ABQ's North Valley recently, he may soon be ready to tell all.

Prepare yourself. Baca is blogging. And while it's pretty soft stuff now, the feisty ABQ native says he will start opining about the ABQ mayor's race and, if and when he retires he will delve deeper into the current and past scene. For now, he is content rejoining the world where it all started for him; the news game, albeit, in the nontraditional format of blogging.

Some quick takes over the tea: Mayor Marty and Brad Winter are likely headed to a run-off in the ABQ mayor's race, city leaders aren't thinking "big enough" and the biggest problem in ABQ is the failure to move toward metro government, or at least cooperation between Rio Rancho and ABQ.

Rio Rancho is on its way to building a complete downtown and business center, unlike the suburbs that surround Denver and other big cities, but Baca thinks ABQ will survive just fine as NM's economic and cultural center. Still, he hears the footsteps of the massive growth he has battled all these years. He senses that powerful forces that will transform this region when his children have children will probabaly not be held back.

Some of my bumpy history with Baca is on his blog, a history shared by many who have hired, fired and rehired him. That includes the citizens of New Mexico. Baca wracked up killer totals when he ran for land commissioner in 82', but when he sought re-election to the ABQ mayor's job in 2001 he could not even manage third. It's been that kind of life and career for the colorful Baca. No one will ever accuse him of refusing to lay it on the line, of being boring or of not caring.

MINIMUM RESISTANCE

If that measure proposing to hike the minimum wage in ABQ to $7.50 an hour makes it on the ballot it will resonate statewide. And it looks as though it is well on its way. On Friday, the day for gathering the over 13,000 valid signatures for the city clerk, we checked in with wage-backer and City Councilor Martin Heinrich.

"Joe, nearly 34,000 signatures were turned in. So far about 7,000 have been counted and they are still running just under 60% valid. With those kinds of numbers this should get on the ballot with plenty of room to spare. Even if the validity rate were to drop significantly, there would still be enough signatures," the ABQ SE Heights lawmaker wrote in a blog contribution.

The NM Restaurant Association is rallying the biz community to try to strike down the signatures and keep the measure off the ballot. But with numbers like these, they would be better advised to save their money for the campaign that appears to lie ahead.

Your comments are always welcome here and we use many of them. Email me from the link at the top of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Big Bill
With the Guv primary election less than a year away, where does Big Bill stand with the New Mexico public? Are there opportunities for the GOP to take him down a notch, or even pull a magnificent upset? What does his standing here tell us about his chances for the Dem prez nomination? I posed these and other questions to political junkies and Alligators who weighed the latest poll numbers and news events and helped paint the big picture of Big Bill.

The latest Survey USA poll (July 10-12, MOE +-4.1%) gives the Guv a 53% approval rating with 39% disapproving. A lot of folks are going to arch their eyebrows when they see that and they should. What about those polls in the ABQ Journal showing the Big Guy with ratings well above 60%? The problem is those polls asked whether people had a favorable opinion of the Guv, not what they thought of the job he's doing.

"The job approval is the best question because it is a good forecast of what an incumbent would get in a two way race," offered one veteran poll watcher. He added that the Survey USA weighed its poll with 38% Republicans, a few too many, thus he believes the Guv's job approval is closer to 55%.

"This is a good number. It's is hard for a Democratic governor in a state as diverse as this to crack the 60% mark in job approval. There is simply too many conservatives. He won election in a landslide with 55%. I think if the R's field a decent opponent he is unlikely to beat that number. However, if they come up with a complete sacrificial lamb it could be done," he analyzed.

SORE SPOTS

There is potential trouble lurking in the numbers. For example, the Guv pulls just a 61% disapproval rating from R's with a historically big 34% giving him the thumbs up. "He's done a good job pulling them over. But that strength could be turned into a weakness. What if the Republicans were to start moving back to say 75% or 80% opposed? That could take down his approval rating to near 50%," commented one R analyst.

And then there is that troublesome Hispanic approval rating of 61%. Sure it's high, but not that high for a Hispanic governor, and a constituency group that is supposed to be bedrock D. "It's interesting. He has two announced opponents, (Bengie Regensburg and Eli Chavez) both Hispanics. They see him as putting himself above them. It's his imperial air that has caused him problems with this group," said our polling source. Your blogger would add that conservative influence on positions such as abortion and other social values have not helped the pro-choice Dem Guv in the North.

An insider R says he sees Big Bill's re-elect number at 55%, agreeing that the 2002 58% benchmark may have been a peak. "You don't make many friends as you go along," he mused. He agreed that 60% was possible if the R's don't fight hard.

Big Bill's missteps--buying a $5.5 million state jet and his latest speeding violation--probably dented him a bit, but one Alligator offered a theory on why it may not have hurt as much as the R's would have liked. "He was hit on the plane, but at the same time he was in New Hampshire running for president. I think the prestige of running and the pride some voters had in the governor may have bought him insurance on the plane and spending issues," he speculated.

Big Bill's 75% approval rating among Dems in the Survey USA poll is solid, according to the politicos. Yes, there is some Hispanic opposition, but are they going to vote Republican? No. He has some fence mending to do, but plenty of time to do it. I would add that they might not vote R, but they could stay home, like many apparently did in last year's NM Prez battle.

THEN AND NOW
Paul Bardacke
Today's scene reminds me a bit of 1990 when old warhorse Bruce King was bidding for a third term for governor and restless Dems got behind former Attorney General Paul Bardacke to challenge Bruce. Bardacke was soundly defeated in the primary and King went on to win big against a weak Republican Party led that year by Frank Bond.

But there is a difference this time. Our Guv is seeking the Dem nod for Prez and that could be an incentive for the national Rs to come in and apply pressure to keep his numbers down.

"The R's have been fixated on attracting Hispanics. Richardson poses a threat to that plan either as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate. It may be in their interest to get involved even if the goal is just to weaken him." offered up one Gator.

All agreed that the Big Bill job approval near the mid-50's is solid, but some of his supporters feared the Journal polls putting him in the low 60's may have set the bar too high. As the political community absorbs other polling numbers he could be perceived as more vulnerable. The Survey USA poll will be out each month, giving the national press and NM politicos fresh numbers to track and measure the impact of the Guv's media triumphs and errors.

PREZ RIVALS

Big Bill isn't the only Dem guv seeking the Dem prez nod. How does he measure up against the others?. He's in the middle. Pennsylvania Guv Ed Rendell is at 45% approval in the Survey USA, Virginia Guv Mark Warner has a ten point edge on Big Bill, garnering a whopping 63% job approval rating and Iowa Guv Tom Vilsack comes in at 54% approval.

"The Richardson campaign needs to manage expectations about next year. National observers may expect him to win re-election with over 60% and that is not a no-brainer. They need to focus on the percentage they can beat their opponent by and not emphasize the 60% which is the traditional sign of a landslide," advised our polling Gator, pointing out that R John Sanchez suffered a 16 point beating at the hands of Big Bill.

More immediately the Richardson camp has that sticky Hispanic problem. Yes, former State Rep. Regensberg of Mora county and Eli Chavez, running as an independent, may not be mainstream opponents, but they will get a share of the spotlight and they could harden opposition and lower turnout. As for the R's the magic formula is available to them in the latest numbers. Get that disapproval rating among Republicans up and romance conservative Hispanic Dems. Easily said. But they are up against a master of the game who plays for keeps. Determination and resolve are his hallmarks. The R's will need the same to make a match out of this one.

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"Lightning Rod" Adair
Hyper-controversial State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair will soon be on the air. Perhaps New Mexico's severest media critic, the Roswell GOP lawmaker will host a weekly radio show on Friday mornings on new radio station KEDU-LP 102.3 FM in Ruidoso. The "LP" stands for "low power." KEDU is one of the newly licensed low power FM stations made available by the Federal Communications Commission to provide local programming to underserved parts of the U.S. population. Adair's caustic commentaries have entertained and stung politicos across our Enchanted Land. His near fistfight with then House Speaker Raymond Sanchez is legendary. When I first started this blog I got similar treatment when I ran into Lightning Rod at Yanni's restaurant in ABQ. He was hot under the collar because I had carried speculation that he might not seek re-election. We've been friends ever since. Not! Even though Rod is on a low-powered station you will still be able to get an Adair fix from anywhere you wish. The program will also be Webcast from the KEDU Web site linked above.

CONDI RULES

Condi kinda let the air out of Big Bill's balloon, didn't she? Over the weekend Sec. of State Rice announced North Korea would rejoin nuke talks with other nations. This, on the heels of the news that Big Bill had received overtures from North Korea for a meeting. Maybe that meeting will still take place, but Condi's announcement was a clear reminder that the international stage belongs to Rice and the R's. Hey, that's what happens when you win an election.

GETTING CLOSER

She's getting closer. We're talking about Beverlee McClure who the Alligators have been pinpointed as the favorite for the new Secretary of Higher Education position in big Bill's cabinet. Do they have it right? Well, the five finalists have been announced and Beverlee, president of Clovis Community College has made the cut. If she gets the big prize it will be one of the earliest calls in Gator history. Stay tuned.

THANKS PETE

A tip of the hat to our sponsor, State Senator Pete Campos from Las Vegas, NM. Pete has been with us since last year, helping defray the cost of this enterprise and we appreciate his support. Heck, we don't even say nice things about him. In fact, we often disagree on the big issues. But Pete and I agree this place is all about keeping the politics going, not playing favorites. If you or someone you know would like to advertise here, just drop us an e-mail. Meantime, thanks Pete.

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The first NM U.S. Senate campaign that went over a million bucks was back in 78' when Pete Domenici hit the number in a hot race with Dem Toney Anaya. Today a million bucks in a NM senate race is chump change. Just look at the latest figures from Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman's 06' re-elect. The Silver City native already boasts $1.033 million in cash, according to the latest reports, and the number may climb to four times that much before it's over. And Jeff doesn't even have a 'for real' opponent. Heck, if he draws an R with gumption he may push past the $6 mil mark. Bingaman raised $550,000 in the March-June quarter alone. Who gives all this dough? I think you know. The usual suspects. We all have problems with "special interests" influence. For a refresher on where the cash gusher originates check out political moneyline.

POVERTY MENTALITY?

What are Mr.& Mrs. Albuquerque to make of the election year squabbling between the top two mayor contenders, Dem Mayor Marty and R City Councilor Brad Winter? And now the entire council fighting over whether some bond money should go to construct a panda exhibit at the zoo or to fix up city streets? Hey, why can't we do both? For a change, the city is flush with cash, but the poverty mentality prevails. It was enough to flush mayoral wannabe Judy Espinosa out of hibernation with a well-timed slap on the wrists.

"The situation is becoming ridiculous. I know I'm not alone in thinking that the Mayor and some of the council members are acting like a bunch of elementary school students. It would be almost funny if the stakes were not so high, but the stakes are high; and I am calling on both sides to lower the rhetoric and tend to city business like intelligent, professional adults."

Intelligent, professional adults? Thanks for trying Judy, but we might need professional day care before this one's over. By the way, Big Bill says he will try to get state money for the ABQ panda exhibit.

THE MISSING HISPANICS

"Where are the Hispanics?" questioned several Alligators upon seeing the highest paid fourteen city of ABQ employees posted here and gathered by KOB-TV. "Hispanics make up over 40% of the city population nd maybe 70% of the city work force, yet there's not one Hispanic on that list," slapped one Gator.

Mayor Marty does not make the list, but most of the highly paid were appointed by him so he is the target of the Gator wrath. The Mayor's defenders point out that he has named many Hispanics as department directors and their high pay--in the mid 90's--falls just shy of the top fourteen. Longtime Hispanic activist Juan Jose Pena is running for a city council seat and some expect him to talk about the case of the missing high-paid Hispanics. Stay tuned.

KKOB--STILL THE ONE

Negative campaigning, citywide billboards and top name talent was not enough to peel many listeners away from longtime NM radio powerhouse 770 KKOB-AM and over to talk radio newcomer KAGM 106.3 FM. The latest Arbitrend ratings reveal a huge gap between the two stations, with KKOB still number one with an 8.7% audience share. KAGM is near the bottom, ranking 25th out of 31 stations with just a 1.5% share. Former KKOB morning man Larry Ahrens and TV news anchor Dianne Anderson headline KAGM, where they've been running attack promos against their 50,000 watt rival. But a radio insider says "this market is already heavily served with talk radio. Whether another one is needed is questionable."

But another talk station was a big winner in the ratings, showing that while there may be plenty of right-wing radio, listeners are craving a liberal alternative. KABQ-AM 1350 came in with a 2.4% share, ranking them 17th in the market. The format is finding a home among Dems and progressives, and unlike KAGM, does not need a big budget. A spokeswoman for Arbitron in Columbia, Maryland tells me the ratings represent a "rolling average" from the twelve weeks of March, April and May.

BLOG ODDS AND ENDS

How could ABQ City Councilor Tina Cummins be the "brother" of Bernalillo County Commissioner Tim Cummins? That's what some of my Monday morning readers wondered. I caught the typo, but not before political junkie Steve Terrell and others pointed it out. Steve chimed in: "Brother???" Either this is a typo or it's bigger news than I thought!" Sorry Tina, we're sure you still look "fetching" and feminine...As for Tina's ABQ NE Heights council race in which we broke the news that Tina had re-entered, some Dems urged us to point out that Dem Chris Catechis, who unsuccessfully challenged GOP State Rep. Ted Hobbs, is also seeking the Cummins seat. OK, done. Meanwhile, friends of Janet Saiers, a retired city employee, say she is having second thoughts about seeking the seat now that Tina is back in and has the support of Mayor Marty who can help her raise bucks.

Back tomorrow with more. Keep us posted with those emails and thanks for stopping by.

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Tina Cummins
Tina has turned. ABQ far NE Heights GOP City Councilor Tina Cummins, sister of GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Tim Cummins, has changed her mind and is seeking re-election to a second four year term on the nine member council, according to Alligators monitoring the situation for us.

"She is definitely back in and the word up here is that the Mayor (Mayor Marty) persuaded Tina to resume her campaign," said our high level politico.

It was just a couple of weeks ago that Tina threw in the towel on her re-elect saying she had had enough. That came on the heels of the newspapers hammering her for not declaring on their questionnaires that she had been charged with a DWI some 15 years ago.

Speculators say Cummins, a Realtor, could have been told by the Mayor Marty forces hat her re-elect was not hurt much by the DWI revelation. The reasoning being she was charged, not convicted, it was a very long time ago and TV did not pick up much on the story. There's also a chance the Marty camp could have done some polling to see how Tina was doing. Tina has been a reliable supporter of the mayor's and having her on the ballot can't hurt him with her supporters, thus the move to get her back in the game.

"Tina has got to be considered the frontrunner despite the turmoil. She is a fiscal conservative in an area that values that above everything else. She is also very pro-business, fitting with the profile of the district. And she doesn't do a lot, something that could hurt in other districts, but not with her voters,' analyzed our Gator.

GOP Attorney Don Harris was thinking the field was clear for him when Tina withdrew, but with her back in Harris will have to redouble his efforts to pull off the upset. The main D in the race is Janet Saiers, considered a bit liberal to score the win. But remember, it takes 40% to win. If not, there's a run-off a month later. We certainly could get one in this interesting contest.

WINTER'S WEB

Meanwhile, GOP mayoral contender and city council prez Brad Winter is up on the Web. But his new site is more notable for what it doesn't mention, rather than for what it does. "Brad completely ignores the hot button issue of growth. Not one word about it. "The site is a not so subtle attack on the mayor calling for "honest leadership," e-mails in one astute observer.

A business group called Citizens for Greater ABQ (CGA) tried to take Winter out of his council seat two years ago because they felt for a Republican he was not pro-growth enough. Perhaps his campaign now wants to forget all about that, but you can be sure his opponents wont and will be putting Brad on the spot in the weeks ahead.

A NOSE FOR NEWS?
Jim Folkman

Staying with the growth issue this Monday, I don't know Jim Folkman, never met the executive vice president of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico. But I'm not going to argue with his news judgment, and neither should anyone seeking office in the ABQ Metro area who have been given this wake-up call.

"Rio Rancho is closing in on Albuquerque in total numbers of housing starts-581 to 996 in the first quarter-and doing it faster than anybody anticipated.

"We used to think it would be a few years before Rio Rancho would exceed Albuquerque in housing starts," Folkman said. "Now it looks like it will probably happen within the next year and a half."

He said the trend "represents a whole different way of the Albuquerque metro area growing. "We could see a Minneapolis/St. Paul, Dallas/Fort Worth dynamic," Folkman said. "And that's news."

Indeed it is, Mr. Folkman, but you seem to be one of the few who recognize it. There's a giant sucking sound over New Mexico's largest city. Is anyone listening?

MARTY AND MARK

A blast from the past has been recruited to run the final months of Mayor Marty's re-elect campaign, report notoriously reliable sources. He's Mark Fleischer who was a presence in Dem party circles here back in the 70's and left to got to Arizona where he served as chair of that state's Dem Party in the late 90's. I remember covering Fleischer in the late 70's for radio news when he ran unsuccessfully for Bernalillo county treasurer but lost track of him until he popped up in the Arizona headlines. Fleischer replaces Bridget Cusick who ran into an Alligator swarm, (or whatrever you call Alligators who travel together) at Marty headquarters and headed back to the midwest. Fleischer's experience dueling directly with the R's may come in handy for the mayor as this race is already more partisan than any in the past.

Your comments are always welcome here and we use many of them. Email me from the link at the top of this page.

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"The only North he ought be worried about is Northern New Mexico," quipped a veteran GOP operative upon learning the news that Big Bill may again be called to diplomatic service by the bizarre government of North Korea. But a top D spun right back that Big Bill has had past success with the North Koreans, did not initiate the latest call, they did, and if he can help head off nuclear confrontation he should be allowed to do so without political nitpicking. "This is welcome news for him. Maybe some R's are upset that it may take the focus off his problems with the jet plane purchase and the speeding issue. But it reminds New Mexico that it has a governor who commands respect outside of the state," spun our D informer.

The Guv's office low-keyed the announcement and noted they would take their cue from the Bush Administration in going forward with any meeting in North Korea. The controversial $5.5 million planned jet plane purchase was not completely forgotten in the midst of the North Korean announcement Wednesday. KKOB-AM radio newsman Larry Mohlenbrink and I wondered aloud before a radio interview whether the new jet will be in service in time to take the New Mexican entourage on the Korean diplomatic mission. I don't think the turboprop would make it," mused Larry.

ELI'S COMING; HIDE YOUR KIDS

Meanwhile, up in northern New Mexico Eli Chavez, who turned on Big Bill after the Guv opposed his bid for the ABQ Congressional seat, tells the Rio Grande Sun in Espanola he will launch an independent bid for Guv next year. The political gadfly unleashed a stream of invective against the Guv that reveals the hurt: "I call him 'Governor Greed,'" Chavez said. "He is a greedy bloodsucker. He's chewed up New Mexicans and spit them out and doesn't look back. "Look at that airplane. All I can see is it flying to Iowa and New Hampshire," Chavez said, tying together the state's planned purchase of a new jet with Richardson's rumored presidential ambitions." If there's no children reading the blog today, click here for the full piece.

SOMETIMES CRIME PAYS

It's one of the stinkiest cop scandals in state history, the infamous APD evidence room scandal whose perpetrators go unaccountable and unprosecuted. And the stench keeps getting worse. Two former employees of the room have been busted for forging drug prescriptions--This, mind you, in no way relates to the evidence scandal. It's just two wayward villians. At least that's the spin from the powers-that-be.

New APD Chief Ray Schultz has his hands full. How can he restore trust in light of the ongoing scandal? Longtime APD critics continue to haunt him too. Take this missive from a Web site called realcrimes.com.which was regularly updating what they deem APD misbehavior. They are passing around this April 17, 2001 entry: "Deputy Chief Ray Schultz announced that eight to ten APD officers faced punishment for a 1999 plot to illegally steal premium satellite television service by downloading computer software that allowed them to reprogram subscription cards. Schultz stated that none of the officers would be dismissed, but would be “reminded that they shouldn’t do things like that. Sound familiar?

HIGHEST OF THE HIGH

At least the chief can afford to take the heat. It turns out he is now the highest paid city employee, pulling down over 123K a year. KOB-TV's Neil Simon has been running the numbers and has the other highest paid city workers.

Keep the politics coming. Email your comments, news, complaints or whatever else is on your mind. I look forward to hearing from you.

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Somebody wake up Eric Griego and Judy Espinosa. If the two heavyweights in the ABQ Mayor's race keep it up they may be a factor in the Oct. 4 face-off after all. First, Mayor Marty misfired on voter ID, accusing Winter of being against it, then the state GOP implied that the mayor stole their e-mail database and, by God, someone was going to pay for such a high crime and misdemeanor, if it indeed it actually happened. Hey, isn't that the same e-mail list that some R's accused State Sen. "Lightning" Rod Adair of wrongfully getting his hands on a year or so ago? Well, that was then and this is now. The GOP says it's launching an "internal investigation" into the maybe disappearing database. Maybe they can start by talking with Rod. Not that Mayor Marty was too worried about the GOP charges, not unless he and his dog Dukes crawled into GOP headquarters in the middle of the night and lifted the disc. If he did, someone call the Washington Post, we've got ourselves a Watergate, or is it Riogate?

Whether the mayor was "gifted" the GOP list or not, he has plenty of other things on his plate. Chief among them is getting his campaign back on solid footing after sending repeated volleys Winter's way on voter ID, only to see them deflected back on him by the "free media." Not that anyone other than you and I and other junkies noticed. Mr. & Mrs. Albuquerque are on siesta and to Hades with anyone, especially a bunch of politicians, who try to butt in on their summertime fun. But in La Politica boys will be boys. And girls will be girls. Which bring us to the subject of ABQ GOP State Rep. Justine Fox-Young.

MICKEY'S FOX
Rep. Fox-Young
If anything revealing has come out of the amateur hour of campaigning of late, it's young Ms. Young's defense of fellow R Brad Winter. Remember, the Fox-Young's of the world, affiliated as they are with the breakaway GOP faction led by lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett, are a leading indicator of which way the wind is blowing at Mickey's place. And that's not as predictable as you might think. Remember legalizing drugs? In any event, Justine gave a vigorous defense of moderate Winter's stance on voter ID panning Mayor Marty for daring to question the city council prez. And for those of you who need a weatherman (or a blogger) to know which way the wind is blowing, here's the forecast. The Fox-Young defense of Winter signals that the Barnett- Weh-Dendahl-Adair-Thompson-Youngberg-Foley-McCleskey-Rogers-Young faction is ready to play ball with the man they tried to obliterate just two years ago when he was challenged for his council seat by one Barnett-backed Patrick Milligan.

DIVIDE AND TIE?

Mayor Marty has a nice share of R's who shop at his store. He does and he will continue to try to divide the GOP as best he can because the key to the magic kingdom belongs to the contender who can unite one of the two major parties behind his candidacy. Obviously, the Republican National Committee and its various local acolytes have taken an interest in unseating Dem Marty as a prelude to taking on Big Bill next year. While the attacks against the mayor escalate, Mr. Warm and Fuzzy, AKA, Brad, is unseen. But he's not paying for this shindig--the party is--and the last we heard he who has the gold rules.

So there you have it. The Democrat mayor trying to hang on to his R's, the moderate R Brad embracing his former foes and neither candidate hitting on all cylnders. Is that what they mean by "politics makes for strange bedfellows?" Someone throw me the covers, this is too weird to watch.

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Heads up all you aspiring young politicos. Don't get scared away from campaigns by the crazy personalities, odd hours and iffy pay. The payoff is still there if you're lucky enough to play for the winning team. For inspiration just take a look at the crop from the NM Bush-Cheney 04' campaign.

Shawn Sullivan, former NM GOP deputy director and Bush 04' senior field director, is now a senior advisor to an assistant secretary of defense. Scott Jennings, who was pulled into NM from Kentucky as NM director of Bush-Cheney, is now associate political director at the White House. Ken Spain, former Bush NM communications director, is now deputy chief staff for Rep. Mike Conaway of Midland, TX. Sara Lister, a Bush-Cheney deputy director, is back running Sen. Pete's PAC and also fundraising for ABQ mayoral hopeful Brad Winter. And Scott Darnell, Chris Atencio and Alexis Valdez, all former NM field Directors for "Victory '04," are working as field directors for the NM GOP.

Even controversial and hot button political player Jay McCleseky landed himself a nice plum job. The former Republican National Committee consultant for the Bush campaign is now the RNC regional political director for the Southwest. One of th alumni tells me "it's safe to say most of us will b back ont he campaign trail nextyear." And why not. To the victor go the spoils. Indeed.

HEATHER'S PAY HIKE

Being a U.S. Rep still isn't a bad way to bring down a sizable paycheck. And apparently ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson thinks her constituents understand. She was the only New Mexico Rep to vote in favor of a recent pay raise. Dem Rep Udall and the GOP's Pearce declined the extra cash. The raise passed on a 263-152 vote and will hike the salaries of House members and senators by about 1.9 percent to $165,200. If Heather is running scared in 06,' she isn't showing it.

POLITICAL POTPOURRI

For some bizarre reason voter ID has become an issue in he ABQ mayor's race. The ABQ Tribune's Erik Siemers and I talked about it resulting in his dispatch explaining the political ins and outs on this first headline grabber of the 05' campaign.

Meanwhile, Trib political reporter Kate Nash wonders about proposals in Washington to regulate blogs and bring them under the wing of the Federal Election Commission. So do I and we get together on it in her latest column.

What's up in your corner of New Mexico? Let us know. Your e-mails are always welcome. There's a link at the top of the page.

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