Monday, August 28, 2023Redistricting Heat Tests Judges; Legal Climax Nears With Five Dems And One R Key Players; GOP Gains In Initial Test But Final Ruling Could Favor Dems
There are five Democratic state Supreme Court justices--some with decided progressive leanings--keeping watch as the Republican lawsuit alleging the three congressional districts were gerrymandered nears trial. And you have a conservative GOP rural district court judge presiding over that three day bench trial set to begin Sept. 27 and with his decision deadline from the Supremes now October 6. All the judicial players are expected to keep their emotions and political views to themselves as the heated arguments pour forth. It may be asking too much but that's the system here. First there is the partisan scuffling in the Legislature to come up with the new districts then the inevitable legal wrangling. Would an independent redistricting commission doing the task instead of the Legislature, as some have suggested, make a difference? Maybe, but we aren't about to find out since redistricting is done only once a decade with the next one scheduled for 2031 after the 2030 census. With Judge Fred Van Soleyn of Clovis praising the GOP argument for erasing the new districts and the Supreme Court agreeing to have him move the case forward to trial, there has been speculation that the high court--which will receive the appeal that will result from whatever Soleyn decides--might be prone to go along with a decision that tears up the new congressional districts that are now occupied by three Democrats. Don't say fat chance, but slim to none might be proper. National independent experts argue that the new districts still keeps open a chance of Republican victories in the three seats. The most compelling chance of victory is in the southern congressional district where former US Rep. Yvette Herrell is challenging Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who won the seat from her in the new district in 2022.
The first and Third Districts are more solidly Democratic. The fact that no major Republicans have yet emerged to run for those seats next year speaks to that. In the end it is not partisanship that has isolated the New Mexican Republicans. It is the desertion from their party over a decade and the flight of new voters to the Democrats. The GOP numbers are so diminished that they control no major statewide offices, none of the five seats in the state's congressional delegation, neither chamber of the Legislature, no seats on the aforementioned state supreme court and no GOP presidential candidate has carried the state since 2004. The US Senate seats, the presidential election and the statewide offices can't be gerrymandered. If the Republicans have voting strength that needs to be more fully accounted for in the redistricting, there is no evidence of it in any recent election. They have simply been outvoted and have lost their standing in the state. The famous political cliche that "elections have consequences" is why the GOP has been cornered not because of a partisan gerrymander. It would be nice and maybe even better for the state if there were a Republican or two to balance out the current Democratic dominance. But that's a right to be earned by a political party--not a privilege to be handed out in a lawsuit fight. (The preceding were political arguments in favor of the current lines, not necessarily legal ones.) JUDGING THE BLOG  For example, In July of 2009 he wrote to us: When you say tax increases are off limits, but advocate for repealing tax cuts and tax breaks, it needs to be said that repealing a tax cut IS a tax increase, and repealing a tax break IS a tax increase. To argue otherwise is pure sophistry. And while I'm at it: don't spin the arguments for the tax increasers, let them do it on their own. And in June of 2007 Van Soleyn wrote: Joe, it's getting harder and harder to take you seriously. Despite your over-the-top salivating at having someone take on (GOP Senator) Pete Domenici, you can't be serious in thinking that this newcomer Don Wiviott will have a chance against Pete. I know you really want someone to give him a run for the money, but this guy has no chance at all. He will be mincemeat by the end of the campaign (if he stays in that long). It turned out that neither Wiviott or Domenici were successful in 2008. Domenici ended up stunning the state by announcing he would not seek another term. Wiviott dropped out of the Dem US Senate primary when Tom Udall got in and then ran for the northern congressional seat. Udall ultimately took Domenici's Senate slot and Ben Ray Lujan won the northern US House seat. MIXED REVIEWS
Judge Van Soelen’s survey results were somewhat mixed. Among attorneys, he received positive ratings for being attentive to the proceedings, maintaining proper control over the proceedings, conducting himself in a manner free from impropriety, and for ensuring his personal staff is professional, productive and knowledgeable. His ratings were somewhat lower in finding facts and interpreting the law without regard to possible public criticism, being knowledgeable regarding substantive law and the rules of procedure and evidence, and exercising sound legal reasoning. It was noted by the Commission that his scores improved on every attribute since his previous interim evaluation in 2017. The court staff rated Judge Van Soelen quite positively in all areas. His highest rating was for behaving in a manner that encourages respect for the courts. The resource staff (e.g., law enforcement, probation and parole officers, interpreters, etc.) gave him generally positive scores in all areas. During the interview, Judge Van Soelen acknowledged that he needs to continue his work to improve his performance in certain areas. The commission did recommend that Van Soleyn be retained by Curry and Roosevelt county voters for a six year term and he was. THE ARGUMENT Here is a key passage of the ruling by Judge Van Soleyn that sent the GOP lawsuit to trial: Plaintiffs complaint makes a strong, well-developed case that Senate Bill 1 is a partisan gerrymander created in an attempt to dilute Republican votes in Congressional races in New Mexico. They make a strong, well-developed case that Senate Bill 1 does not follow traditional districting principles, including a lack of compactness, lack of preservation of communities of interest, and failure to take into consideration political and geographic boundaries. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023 Wednesday, July 22, 2009More #2 Action; Rail Runner Rael Starts Moving Light Guv Money Train, Plus: City Different Action; Always Interesting, And: Chavez & Romero News
Lawrence Rael
 Will the cash count be the deciding factor in the wide-open-who-knows-who-will-win-race for the 2010 Dem nomination for lieutenant governor? It could. That's why it caught our eye when we received word that Lawrence Rael will host an August 6 cocktail reception where ticket prices top out at $1000 and are also being offered at $500 and $100. The fund-raiser announcement comes even before Rael makes a formal entry into the crowded light guv race. That's expected soon. But such is the importance of the cash count that the fund-raiser is already being touted before the issues. Campaign pros say it will take $250,000 just to establish credibility and as much as $500,000, if not more, to take the #2 prize.The host committee for the Rael reception includes high-powered ABQ trial attorneys Margaret and Turner Branch; former Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos; Sandoval County Commissioner Donnie Leonard; businesswoman and former University of New Mexico Regent Maria Griego-Raby and Steve Anaya, executive VP of the Realtors Association of NM and nephew of former NM Governor Toney Anaya. The reception will be held at the law offices of Salazar and Sullivan who specialize in medical malpractice. Rael, 51, has never held or run for elective office. He is now executive director of the Mid-Region Council of Governments which spearheaded the development of the Rail Runner, an issue the former longtime chief administrative office for the city of ABQ is sure to use on the trail. (There is good but there is also bad to that.) And he will have a lot of company on that trail. ABQ State Senators Linda Lopez and Jerry Ortiz y Pino are off and running as is Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano. Numerous other candidates wait in the wings, including NM Dem Party Chair Brian Colon. Insiders think Rael and Colon have the most fund-raising prowess. Are they right? Rael is said to have a good relationship with early 2010 Dem Guv front-runner and current Light Guv Diane Denish. Talk has also circulated of Rael being chief of staff if Denish took over the Fourth Floor. As a light guv nominee, his Hispanic background would balance a Denish-led ticket, but he is not from the Hispanic north, which some observers see as the ideal home area for the Dem ticket's second banana. READERS WRITE  Speaking of Linda Lopez, our Tuesdy blog talking of repealing the state tax cuts for the wealthy passed in the early years of Big Bill's term brought this reaction from longtime reader Danny Hernandez:Talk of repealing the Richardson tax breaks for the upper income brackets reminds me that Sen. Lopez has introduced a bill to return income taxes to pre-2004 rates every year since 2004...Perhaps 2010 will be the year this bill will get some traction. While I'm on Linda's soap box: You keep writing how Lady Di needs to separate herself from Big Bill. From that strategic perspective: Who's better known for her independence from Richardson than Sen. Lopez?... Well, the problem is not Linda's independence from Bill; it's her independence from Di. It was Denish who thwarted Lopez's ambitions years ago to get a slot on the ballot as lieutenant governor. Ever since their relationship has been icy, with occasional warm spots. But we're sure they can let bygones be bygones. Can't they? Of course, if Denish wins and Linda is Light Guv, we might have to start a second blog just to cover that relationship. Remember Bruce King and Casey Luna? Reader Fred Van Soelen also had some thoughts on repealing the state tax cuts for the wealthy. He also commented on our thoughts that a tax increase to balance the state budget is unlikely when the Legislature meets in an expected October special session. Fred told us to get off the soap box: When you say tax increases are off limits, but advocate for repealing tax cuts and tax breaks, it needs to be said that repealing a tax cut IS a tax increase, and repealing a tax break IS a tax increase. To argue otherwise is pure sophistry. And while I'm at it: don't spin the arguments for the tax increasers, let them do it on their own. Fred, you busted us. I am now administering to my backside the traditional ten lashes with a wet noodle. IT'S DIFFERENT THERE  Is the Santa Fe City Council, Mayor Coss and Big Bill bowing to sentiment and nostalgia or does it really make sense for the city and state to sell millions in bonds to purchase the failed liberal arts College of Santa Fe? From the outside, there seems ample reason to raise the question. The purchase, which appears unstoppable, could be either a brilliant move or a disaster that will haunt the city for years to come. Especially eyebrow raising is this statement from Santa Fe Councilor Wurzburger: "We have to get his done before next week." What? The debtors won't wait until important questions can be answered?Getting it done means issuing $30 million in bonds backed by city revenues to wipe out the school's massive $20 million debt. Big Bill is promising another $11 million in bond capacity that the city would have to pay back with gross receipts tax revenue--revenue that continues to plunge. Is this economic development or a bail-out? The news report from the ABQ Journal's Kiera Hay reads like a Chinese crossword puzzle--the unanswerable questions on this deal are all over the map. Even as the Santa Fe leadership gambles on a second coming for the College of Santa Fe, there may be no second chance for some of the city work force. Furloughs of city workers are impending because of the crash in city revenues brought on by the bear markets in tourism and real estate and the slowdown in government employment. Employee hours have already been cut to save money, now the furloughs. Can layoffs be far behind? But why worry? Let's go out and buy a college! Even the usually level-headed editors of the New Mexican seem smitten, even if not exactly sure how the deal will work. Well, they don't call it the City Different for nothing. The byzantine deal still lacks the necessary council votes. Maybe some last-minute sanity will prevail and Santa Fe's beleagured taxpayers will be spared from seeing their dollars entered into a crap shoot. Now that would really be a City Different. PEARCE ON THE CLOCK Here's 75 seconds of raw video of former southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce from Hobbs where Tuesday morning he made official his already widely reported decision to try to recapture the House seat he once held and that now belongs to Harry Teague. Steve also made an "official" announcement in Las Cruces Tuesday, the districts most vote-heavy region. THE ABQ CAMPAIGN  Supporters of ABQ Mayor Chavez are hoping to score political points against fellow Democrat and mayoral hopeful Richard Romero by pointing out he gave numerous campaign donations to Republicans while serving s a lobbyist in Santa Fe. We blogged Tuesday of a $200 donation Romero made to GOP State Rep. Richard Berry in 2006. Berry is now also running for mayor. Other R's Romero gave money to include $200 contributions in 2006 to GOP legislative candidates Bill Rehm, Tom Anderson and $150 to GOP Rep. Jane Powdrell-Culbert. But Romero, who is now heavily courting progressive Dems, takes it in stride. His campaign says:I think u covered it. Lobbyists tend to contribute campaign funds to legislators. Richard Romero, as a lobbyist, donated to many Republicans: Payne, Snyder, Youngberg, Hall et al, probably a small contribution to everyone of the ABQ Santa Fe delegation. One of Romero's main lobbying clients was the University of New Mexico. On the flip side of the coin, some Romero supporters are trying to make hay over the fact that Mayor Marty spent some $40,000 in campaign money in late 2008 to conduct an in depth poll, among other things. The assertion is that this may violate the city's public finance law and should count against the $328,000 in public money Chavez was given to conduct his 2009 re-elect bid. Trouble is the 2009 council election calender put out by the city clerk indicates that the clock doesn't start ticking on city election spending until January 1 of the election year. It states: Jan. 1 (Thurs.) Exploratory Period Begins for Public Campaign Funding. It's a loophole in a law that seems riddled with them and the lawyers, we're sure, would be glad to argue about it. But like Romero's contributions to R's, this is a process issue that comes during the slow days of summer as we await serious engagement over serious issues. Meanwhile, it looks like there's still some iced tea in that pitcher. Enjoy. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news tips, comments and political info. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Friday, June 22, 2007The Blog Mailbag: Reaction, Thoughts And Analysis Of The Latest News From Our In-The-Know Readers; Come On In And Open Some Envelopes It didn't take long for newcomer Don Wiviott to get the attention of the New Mexican political community. That happens when you announce (or threaten) to spend up to a million bucks of your own money on a race for the US Senate. Not surprisingly, one of the first reactions to our exclusive that Wiviott was getting in and had big bucks behind him came from another candidate seeking the Democratic nomination in '08 for the right to take on GOP Senator Pete Domenici. Jim Hannan, Wiviott's fellow Santa Fean, said his new foe has a money problem, not with what he plans on spending, but what he has donated:...I've discovered that Don gave Republican David Pfeffer $2100 to run for the US Senate against Jeff Bingaman...David Pfeffer was a very unpopular city councilor here in Santa Fe, he ran for the US Senate in 2006. His main issue was support of the Minutemen movement in southern New Mexico. As I recall, he actually might have walked the entire border, hanging out with the Minutemen in their camps. I guess Don doesn't think that giving money to someone running against Jeff Bingaman is a big issue. Maybe not." Scored Hannan. It appears Hannan is going to try to get Wiviott to spend the money he says he is willing to. It will be interesting to see how the Democratic left handles this race if Wiviott, Hannan and Leland Lehrman are the final field. PEOPLE FOR PETE Some of Senator Pete's supporters didn't take kindly to Wiviott's announcement or our coverage. Reader Fred Van Soelen put it this way: "Joe, it's getting harder and harder to take you seriously. Despite your over-the-top salivating at having someone take on Pete Domenici, you can't be serious in thinking that this newcomer Wiviott will have a chance against Pete. I know you really want someone to give him a run for the money, but this guy has no chance at all. He will be mincemeat by the end of the campaign (if he stays in that long). Fred, I plead guilty to salivating over the prospect of any contested election; I think that's what the game is all about. But I am not invested in any candidate in the '08 senate race, but do look forward to seeing how the mincemeat is made. Domenici, of course, is the favorite, if he stays in the race. POPULARITY PROBLEMS  The historic unpopularity of the current Congress--only 24% approve in the Gallup poll--is no doubt playing a role in the declining poll numbers here of Domenici and even Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman. Pete's approval is at 51% and Jeff's at 59%, below their usual 60 plus. That brought this reaction on the state's junior senator from Democratic reader Jim in Arroyo Hondo, NM, north of Taos.Bingaman has steadfastly remained middle of the road as New Mexico and the nation have moved to the left. New Mexicans, like most Americans, want: an end to the Iraq war, a responsible energy policy and more environmental protection. They also want leadership. Someone strong and someone daring. That is why (Domenici) has been so attractive because, despite what you may think of his policy choices, he is bold. Senator Bingaman is not bold. He has not taken a stab at leading us out of the mess the GOP has put us in. For most New Mexicans, he is another middle of the road Dem, comfortable in his DC office. That may have been fine 10 years ago. It's not fine now. Bingaman was first elected in 1982 and has maintained a low-key style ever since. If there are a bunch of Jim's out there, perhaps we'll see the junior senator be more vocal, but we wouldn't bet our blogging pajamas on it. THE BOTTOM LINES  Finally, from ABQ's South Valley, Andrew Leo Lopez chimes in about our blog mentioning the occupation of one of the contenders for the ABQ SE Heights city council seat. He says:In New Mexico, a professor of Post Colonial Studies teaches current events! Thanks, Andrew. And Long Live La Politica! Have news, thoughts or your own political analysis? Send them our way via the email link at the top of the page. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, October 09, 2023Progressives Have Candidate To Take Sen. Ivey-Soto Out And She Comes Out Firing Over Sex Harassment Charges; He Labels Her A Carpetbagger As He Weighs Decision On Run For Fourth Term, Plus: Redistricting Judge Earns Alligator Badge of Courage
And she hits him out of the gate: . . . Families in District 15 deserve a leader who upholds high moral and ethical standards in their personal and professional conduct—not those who are under investigation for financial and ethical misconduct, as is Senator Ivey-Soto. Senator Ivey-Soto has become a distraction and he is no longer effective. If he chooses to run for reelection, I am prepared to run a strong campaign to defeat him in June. The Senator returned fire, calling Berghmans a carpetbagger from Santa Fe: . . Because I stand up for my district, I have upset some powerful people in Santa Fe. Despite the noise, no findings have been made against me. While I welcome Ms. Berghmans to the race, I note she is a product of Santa Fe, recruited by Santa Fe and is running a campaign starting off in Santa Fe. I’ll continue to focus on the district and on my constituents. Ivey-Soto has held back on announcing his election plans, but the clock is ticking to raise the funding he will require. Berghmans is a protege of former House Speaker Brian Egolf who has already hosted a Santa Fe fundraiser for her so her campaign coffers are expected to be hefty. 74 year old animal rights activist Marcy Britton previously announced her run for the Dem nod in the district but is not expected to be well-funded. Ivey-Soto, first elected in 2012, would be seeking his fourth term. At last report in April he had $103,000 in his campaign account, not an insignificant amount but the question is whether he will be ghosted by future donors because of the harassment charges--charges that he repeatedly points out have not resulted in any finding of guilt. Progressives can expect to come with outside money to help Berghmans and their combined efforts could go over $200,000. ANALYSIS AND CONTEXT  Ivey-Soto has a decision to make and he may want to poll the district before he makes it. The harrassment charges have battered him for well over a year. He does get a break with two opposition candiates now in the race but Britton is not a brand name and progressives will go all in with Berghmans. Still, the anti-Ivey-Soto vote stands at least a chance of being divided. Ivey-Soto has already lost his committee chairmanship because of the allegations and been disowned by the state Dem Party. Is he up for a fight to retain his seat whose power has has been greatly diminished? Can he raise the money? He's been convicted of nothing but will the charges fall flat or take hold? A poll would give him the guidance he needs as would frank conversations with potential donors. I wouldn't be surprised if that is what he is up to. The whole game is the June primary. The winner there is almost certainly to take the seat in the general election as no R's need apply in this Dem leaning district. THE BERGHMANS FILE From her campaign: Heather Berghmans is a policy analyst, finance consultant, and a native New Mexican. . .Heather was born in Albuquerque and grew up in the East Mountains. After graduating from Moriarty High School, she earned a BA in Political Science and a Master's in Public Administration from the University of New Mexico. Following her studies, Heather moved to Berlin, Germany, New York, and Miami, working for e-commerce startups. . . Since returning to New Mexico in 2018, Heather has dedicated her career to advocating for the people of New Mexico, working closely with state and local leaders to effect change. Sounds good but as always the opposition research will also have a say before all is said and done. BADGE OF COURAGE
The gerrymander charge has never held much water with political pros steeped in the nuance of such matters, one of them being Las Cruces area Dem state Senator Joe Cervantes, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and co-sponsor of the redistricting bill approved by the Legislature. Reacting to the ruling, he declared; I predicted, and today the court affirmed, our work is lawful and constitutional.
I wish I could pick race horses with the same confidence as legal outcomes. Predicting the redistricting outcome is one thing but predicting the winner of the southern congressional seat next year, which was at the heart of the redistricting battle, is another matter. Freshman Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez seems especially vulnerable but former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell has shown she not only knows how to win the district but also lose it. Any bets, Senator? This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023 |
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