Sen. Cervantes

Next in line to announce their candidacy for the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nomination is veteran legislator Joe Cervantes of Las Cruces. He tells me: "I am all in" and says he will make a formal entry into the contest in April.

Already the big question hovering over the state Senator is how much of his considerable personal wealth he will put at risk in pursuing the nomination. A political consultant who has worked with Cervantes said he has advised the candidate that if he opts to personally finance his effort he should be prepared to bring $1 to $2 million to the table. Cervantes offered no comment to us on his financing plans.

A mention of a possible Cervantes candidacy has drawn chuckles from some longtime political observers who remember his past tentativeness in deciding whether to get in big state races. But he says this time there will be no hesitation.

The attorney, a 12 year House member who was elected to the Senate from Dona Ana County in 2012 and re-elected in '16, is expected to run as a moderate Democrat, pitting him against what is expected to be a more liberal campaign from ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham who has already announced her candidacy.

Expected to also officially hop in the race soon is ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca, the son of former NM Gov. Jerry Apodaca. He and Cervantes appear to be vying for much of the same Dem vote.

In a bit of irony, if Cervantes were to become governor he would be the first legislator to do so since Jeff's father, also a state Senator from Las Cruces, pulled off the feat in 1974.

Attorney General Hector Balderas is another big name still on the sidelines in the Dem Guv battle. A decision on whether he will jump in is expected sooner rather than later.

REVERSING ON EDEN

Brian Colón

We've had the first major policy reversal among the ABQ mayor candidates. Former NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colón, who has been hedging on whether if, as mayor, he would fire APD Chief Gorden Eden, reversed himself at a Tuesday North Valley mayoral forum, saying he has told Eden if he wins Eden is out.

But in a February interview with the ABQ Free Press, Colón said he was undecided about firing Eden, saying then,  "Anyone who has devoted themselves to public service deserves to have a sit-down with their new boss."

That might have been the end of it, but then Colón was back with mixed messaging about Eden in a campaign fundraising letter from Jered Trujillo sent following the mayoral forum:

I was impressed that Brian was the only mayoral candidate to have reached out to the current Chief of Police. Improving public safety is a cornerstone to Brian’s campaign, and his involvement of those on the front lines shows he will involve those with experience at the table.

Colón's gaming of both sides of the political aisle has been his early strategy. Whether it stands the test of time and scrutiny remains to be seen.

GOOD CROWD

A large crowd for a mayoral forum--about 150--turned out, perhaps signaling a healthier interest and a good voter turnout come October 3. For Colón it may have signaled that with the city facing deep-seated problems he and the other major hopefuls--all of whom earlier said that Chief Eden would not be retained--could be facing an electorate that is keenly interested in the meat and potatoes of policy concerning the crime wave fueled in large part by drug addiction, speeding up Federally mandated APD reforms and bolstering our city's long-standing anemic economy.

The forum was welcome but early. Come April 28, when candidates are required to turn in 3,000 petition signatures from registered city voters, the field that now numbers in the double-digits will thin considerably.

Sadly, here's the latest example of monumental mismanagement at APD that the new mayor will have to confront:

The Albuquerque Police Department has gone $3.9 million over budget to pay overtime for its strained and understaffed force, according to a report from the city's Internal Audit Office. The office has been looking into APD's overtime spending after an anonymous tip came into the office. The findings show overtime APD spending soaring to nearly $4 million over the $8.9 million overtime budget in 2016. It is a pattern that seems to show overtime spending climbing as officer numbers decrease. The Albuquerque police officer's union says it puts cops and the people they serve in danger.

WELCOME TO ABQ

And then there's this most common and menacing crime in the city. . .

A visitor flew into Albuquerque from Atlanta Tuesday for a golf trip, but moments after landing at the Sunport, he had a gun in his face as a victim of a carjacking. David Carpenter was loading his luggage into his friend’s BMW curbside when the suspects pulled up in a small sedan. “The girl screams at us to get out, another guy comes up with a gun, points it at us, tells us to get out of the fucking car,” Carpenter said. Carpenter grabbed his computer and golf bags from the BMW. “They were still pointing the gun at us, and we backed off behind the car and about that time, all the police cars came around,” he said.

Don't worry, David. All will end well with Mayor Berry presenting you with the keys to the city--if they haven't already been stolen.

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The second term creepy-crawlers continue to emerge from under the gubernatorial carpets of Susana Martinez.

Journalist Daniel Libit, who authored a memorable 2013 National Journal piece on Susana's "Shadow Governor" and chief political consultant, Jay McCleskey, now comes with a 20,000 word missive on the backroom wheeling and dealing between UNM, the Governor, McCleskey, former Lobo basketball Coach Craig Neal and the UNM Board of Regents. Highlights of this soap opera gone sad include:

--Did Susana have "a crush" on Coach Neal, as one former UNM Regent says on the record, and did that crush lead--bizarrely--to Neal becoming the prime contact with the Governor for UNM?

--If Martinez Secretary of Higher Education Barbara Damron is named the new UNM president by the Martinez Board of Regents, will UNM become a dumping ground for Martinez appointees like Chief of Staff Keith Gardner who are going to need jobs when her term ends next year?

---Did something so petty as personal hatred for her former Deputy Chief of Staff Ryan Cangiolosi, who secured a job at the UNM Health Sciences Department and is also chairman of the NM GOP, a big reason the Governor and Regents punishing that department as well as stalling efforts to build a new UNM hospital?

--Has McCleskey and his pollster wife Nicole gone into the basketball coaching business? Yes:

Last summer, the McCleskeys filed paperwork with the Secretary of State to create Dream Basketball Training Center LLC. They now operate an Albuquerque hoops gym out of an office park off Jefferson Street. In July, they hosted a two-day camp for kids. Former Lobos Obij Aget and Devon Williams, two of Craig Neal’s favorite players, served as instructors.

Libit, a native of ABQ who is a national freelancer based in Chicago, now authors the UNM watchdog blog NM Fishbowl. In this saga, the hallmarks of the now unpopular administration are peeled back like scabs--the pettiness, the vindictiveness and the lack of interest in public policy.

Screwing your enemies and demanding fealty from all you encounter has been the "governing" principle of the administration. The Fishbowl piece shows they did that pretty well at UNM but not much else. One wag on Facebook calls the Martinez UNM maneuvering a product of "Mayberry Machiavellians."

It's another sorrowful creepy-crawler tale that, as Libit writes, has "everyone counting" the days until the Martinez era finally concludes on Dec. 31 2018. As the Grateful Dead sang so memorably: "What a long, strange trip it's been. . . "

COMING OUT

Cervantes

Where in the heck has Joe Cervantes been? That's what inquiring minds have been asking ever since the Las Cruces area state Senator announced July 5 he will seek the 2018 Dem Guv nod. Apparently Joe was taking it easy since announcing but is now ready to switch gears. Cervantes will be hosted this Friday, Sept. 8 at the NE Heights home of veteran Dem consultant Mark Fleisher at an ABQ coming out party. Fleisher says on the invite:

This will not be a fund-raiser, just an opportunity to meet Joe and Jennifer Cervantes and talk about issues that are important to you. I would personally appreciate you coming to meet and talk with Joe. 

The event runs from 5 to 6:30 p.m. More info at mfleisher@aol.com.

There's really only one question the political community has right now for Cervantes, an attorney whose family has large agricultural interests in Dona Ana County. That's whether the rumor is true that he will salt his own campaign kitty with as much as $2 million in personal money? If he does, the game is on with his main competitors Jeff Apodaca and Rep. Lujan Grisham who have been on the campaign trail for months. If not, Cervantes may have trouble getting traction.

Cervantes is a former state House member as well as a state Senator so knowing the issues is no problem. But knowing when and if he should take out his wallet for a tough primary battle is tricky.

On the party invite Cervantes unveils a possible campaign slogan: "Transforming New Mexico."

CLASHING OVER COLÓN

Balderas & Grisham In Vegas

Better late than never? State Senator Joe Cervantes told the media he would announce his bid for the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nomination back in April, but it took him until today to pull the trigger. He will make his promised entry with a formal announcement at the Farm and Ranch Museum in his home county of Dona Ana.

Cervantes will be joining U.S Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca and anti-alcohol advocate Peter DeBenedittis as official contenders, but his problem is the same as it would have been even if he hopped into the race back in April.

Both Cervantes and Apodaca are centrist Democrats with business profiles who will appeal to the same Dem consistences, leaving much of the remainder of the vote heading toward Grisham. (DeBenedittis is not expected to compete on the same level as the other three).

That Cervantes and Apdoca are both Hispanic males is obvious, but important. Already, Grisham has had Attorney General Balderas join her on the campaign trail, only days after announcing his official endorsement of her. The pic of the duo is from an appearance in Las Vegas, near Hector's hometown of Wagon Mound.

While she's working with Balderas to shore up Hispanic northern support, Grisham is free to roam about the building when it comes to more liberal Dems who will be reluctant to go with Cervantes and Apodaca, even if they are still reticent about Grisham.

In the early gubernatorial going the math is simple. Grisham's vote is less divided than her rivals. Cervantes is going to have to break out of the mold he has cast for himself as a veteran legislator if he is to break open this battle for the Dem nod.

MORE THAN ENDORSING?

"That's more than an endorsement, Joe." So said the Alligator who sent in that pic of Grisham and Balderas. Well, if it's more than an endorsement, it's a deal. The details of any such pact between the possible next governor and the AG will be a sidebar that will keep the Gators guessing.

FINANCIAL BONDAGE

Whatever the name of the next governor, they will face even more brutal budget battles. While Moody's has decided not to give the state a second bond downgrade, the ratings agency says the state faces long-term "structural problems" that endanger its financial status.

We've been talking about that for years. In fact, we are not backing off from a concept--first expressed on this blog probably over a year ago--that in the years ahead--say, five to seven--we could see the state's $16 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund tapped to fund a larger share of the public schools budget. There would be a hue and cry about it, but such an amendment giving the state an extra half percent of the money the fund generates annually for a period of ten years would probably pass the electorate with flying colors.

Gov. Martinez's office, in a display of convuluted logic, says her no tax increase pledged that more or less carried the day at the latest special session over the budget crisis was the reason Moody's did not have to downgrade our bonds. That, of course, neglects the first downgrade under her watch and the specter of even more as her administration has failed to address the "structural problems" that Moody's says plague the state.

Conservative GOP State Senator Steven Neville of the Four Corners reacted to Moody's decision to hold our bond rating steady by saying:

The reality is, we have $25 billion in the bank and we’re not going to go bankrupt," referring to money in state permanent funds that make annual distributions to help fund state public schools and other programs.

Yes, the Senator is correct that all of the permanent funds total about $25 billion but that doesn't let us off the hook. If we refuse to generate sufficient revenue to fund the government and then refuse to tap any of that $25 billion to do so, you will get another bond downgrade and then some. 

That scenario is not upon us--not yet. But if the next Governor faces continued depressed energy prices, stagnant population growth, increased Medicaid spending and the brain drain of the millennials the day of really "raiding" the permanent funds may not be far off.

A WILLING MILLENNIAL

Trujillo

We mentioned the millennials. Here's one who just turned 26 and is not fleeing. Catherine Trujillo, a registered independent, is seeking the Westside city council seat being vacated by Republican Dan Lewis who is running for mayor. Trujillo, VP of the Taylor Ranch Neighborhood Association, isn't shy about saying what she believes needs to be done for the beleaguered city:

"Our city is ready for change and fresh faces.We have tough choices ahead. The crime rate, unemployment rate and the rate at which our city is headed should not be contingent on election season. It’s consistency that matters now."

Aside from crime, Trujillo promotes a stronger economy in Albuquerque by encouraging more employment opportunities, economic incentives to help grow Albuquerque businesses and train the workforce.

When you have the Chamber of Commerce giving Mayor Berry an award for public safety, you could say that we just don't need "fresh faces" but we are desperate for them.

Trujillo is in a crowded field which includes GOP attorney Robert Aragon, a fave of the Governor's. The election is October 3. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the two top vote-getters advance to a Nov 7 run-off election.

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He relies on an old standby in his first effort to take Michelle Lujan Grisham down a notch but Joe Cervantes has to start somewhere if this Dem Guv race is going to be something other than watching paint dry. So he nicks the frontrunner over her shyness over debating:

It is completely unacceptable, though not surprising, that Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham is ducking debates. This past Saturday in Silver City she was a no show yet again for a scheduled forum. It isn’t the first time. She has actually withdrawn from scheduled debates when she had already confirmed she would attend. Grisham seems to think that slick mailings and expensive TV ads are all it takes to win New Mexico voters. Don’t the people of New Mexico have a right to a serious discussion of the issues? 

MLG's camp pointed out she has appeared with Cervantes and her other challenger Jeff Apodaca, even if sparsely: 

This isn’t the first campaign where candidates struggling to gain any sort of traction resort misrepresenting the facts. Not only has Michelle already participated in several public forums but she’s committed to several more including one last night in Doña Ana one in Santa Fe, and a statewide televised debate on KOAT. It’s clear our campaign is only picking up more momentum as we get closer to the first day of early voting —Tuesday we released our first radio ad, we are on week two of a six figure television ad buy. . . 

That KOAT face-off stands out because so far it is the only statewide TV debate slated. It is set to air May 20 at 6 p.m.

Cervantes has a TV buy up of $175,000 while Apodaca is below $30,000. That could quickly move Cervantes into second place. Once there, Cervantes would have to decide how hard to go after Lujan Grisham.

OUT WITH NO BS

Peach

Talk about taking a whack at the boss on the way out the door. Dr. Jim Peach, a noted NMSU economic professor familiar to blog readers for being on our exclusive list of "No BS Economists," has had enough of the Las Cruces campus and what he sees as a bunch of political hacks posing as the school's Board of Regents. He's retiring and true to form it's no BS from him on why:

In more than 40 years in the academic world, I have never seen a more incompetent board." Peach condemns the future of the institution under the Regents’ leadership, saying it will be detrimental to this “great institution.”

“The regents have trashed the university publicly and repeatedly while their job is to guide, foster, and promote the institution. The regents have attempted to micro-manage the university but lack the knowledge and expertise to do so,” the letter reads. “At best, the regents are numerically and logically challenged.”

Governor Martinez appoints the Regents at NMSU as well as UNM and the states other universities. When NMSU Chancellor and former Governor Garrey Carruthers was forced out of his Chancellor's position by the NMSU board it was widely seen as a Martinez power play. Carruthers is still on the job as a search continues for a new chancellor.

MORE HIGHER ED WOES

Will the next Governor break the gubernatorial habit of making the top universities political playgrounds? Something needs to happen. The news:

A recent decline in enrollment at New Mexico public colleges outpaced nearly every state in the nation. An association of state higher education agencies says enrollment dropped by nearly 5 percent at New Mexico public colleges for the school year that ended in June 2017.

Tuition that is too high for a low income state and the brain drain of students to surrounding states would seem to be two chief reasons for that disturbing trend.

And the beat goes on. . . Attorney General Balderas is getting a whiff of the rancid smell that floats above UNM, although he is too polite to describe it in those words. Instead he labels it a "pervasive culture of silence." The normally patient Balderas has been stonewalled so badly in his investigations touching upon the UNM Athletic Department and the school's personnel practices that he is threatening legal action to loosen the closed lips. He also calls for an improvement in "the tone at the top."

Well, the longtime Grand Political Wizard of UNM, David Harris, has finally announced his retirement and will depart this year. That could change the tone. Why his powerful position and his responsibility for what has happened there has never really been brought to the fore in the news is quizzical.

The new UNM president, who has worked at mostly normal places like Florida State University, already seems stunned by the culture that has been fostered at UNM. Good luck to Hector and her.  We can already hear the emails at our Harvard on the Rio Grande being deleted.

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Apodaca, Grisham and Cervantes

Here they are, pictured for the first time together in public--the three major candidates for the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. And if history is any guide, it's a good bet that one of them will be the next Governor of New Mexico.

On the left is former TV executive Jeff Apodaca, whose political pedigree includes being the son of Jerry Apodoca, who was elected Governor in 1974.

In the center is the current front-runner, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, the diminutive former BernCo Commissioner who is now an ABQ congresswoman and who once again is seeking bigger things.

And there's Dona Ana County State Senator Joe Cervantes, scion of a longtime agricultural family in the Mesilla Valley, who is already loaning himself major dollars to compete with Grisham, who is far ahead in the never-ending money chase.

None of these three possess the big personality of former Governors like Bruce King or Bill Richardson. It will take New Mexicans time to get to know them. But one of them is likely to be the next Governor because the state has had two terms of Republican Governor Martinez and it is rare for any party to get a third consecutive lease on the executive mansion.

Will Grisham avoid the big stumble and if she doesn't who would benefit? Cervantes? Apodaca? Or will Grisham make this a sleeper and quickly consolidate the Democratic Party behind her, leaving Cervantes and Apodaca to split whatever opposition is left?

Right now Grisham is the one smiling in the photo taken at the recent matanza thrown by ABQ Dem State Senator Michael Padilla. Cervantes and Apodaca have to be wondering just what it will take to wipe that smile from her face.

WATER POLITICS 

Tom Blaine

The esoteric world of the State Engineer, the Interstate Stream Commission (ISC), complicated water rights and Gov. Martinez's ability to influence all of the above exploded into the headlines this month when three members of the ISC--including Republicans appointed by Martinez--abruptly quit the panel. That forced the Governor to quickly make new appointments to the ISC.

The resignation that really caught the eyes of La Politica was from ISC Chairman Caleb Chandler of Clovis. His son, Matt Chandler, is a charter member of the Governor's political machine.

So what's going on? We asked one of our readers with years of experience in all things agua and who wishes to remain anonymous, to tell us about the politics behind the upheaval:

Joe, the Interstate Stream Commission has lost all but two of its senior staff and their institutional knowledge. State Engineer Tom Blaine has taken over the ISC, which would require the Governor’s blessing. The Governor has starved the ISC of staff and resources and depleted its special purpose funds to pay for routine operations. Now, even Governor Martinez’s appointed Republican Chairman Chandler has resigned. The ISC will have to be rebuilt under the next Governor, and it must be reformed and made non-partisan at the same time.

One trigger for the brouhaha is the ISC’s protest of water rights applications before the State Engineer that could impact compliance with New Mexico’s interstate water obligations. The application by Italian billionaire Bruno Modena's Augustin Plains Ranch to speculatively import mined groundwater to the Rio Grande is the most prominent, and appears to be the reason the State Engineer fired ISC Director Deborah Dixon.

Remember that State Engineer Tom Blaine resurrected the defective application after former State Engineer Scott Verhines rejected it as fundamentally insufficient, a judgment that was also reached independently by District Court Judge Reynolds. You may remember that this project appeared as NM’s entry on President Trump’s priority infrastructure projects list, one project per state. Rumor has it this project is a favorite of the Governor. Campaign contributions involved?

Regarding the lead sentence, here is the tally of recent ISC senior staff casualties; Director Deborah Dixon was fired. These employees were the victims of  the current conflict with the State Engineer or austerity policies:  Colorado River Bureau Chief Kevin Flanigan, Special Projects Bureau Chief Craig Roepke, General Counsel Amy Haas, Acting General Counsel Kim Bannerman, and Rio Grande technical guru Nabil Shafike (PhD, PE) are gone within the last six months or so. Kim Abeyta-Martinez, the chief financial person, is retiring early at the end of the month. Remaining bureau are Rolf Schmidt-Petersen (Rio Grande) and Hannah Riseley-White (Pecos). Hannah is relatively new.

Man, that is deep insider stuff that really lets us know what is going on.

A DONE DUNN

Let's stick with the esoteric to close out the Wednesday blog. Here's pretty much why GOP State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn suddenly quit seeking the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat. The oil boys eased him out:

Two southeast New Mexico companies have filed a lawsuit against state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, alleging a policy aimed at curbing how much water oil and natural gas producers can take from a massive aquifer is usurping water rights that stretch back to the 1960s. The two companies, Loco Hills Water Solution and Steve Carter, Inc., have drilled water wells on state trust land in Lea County and transport and sell the water to oil and natural gas drilling outfits, according to the complaint filed last week in state district court in Lovington.

Oil and gas financial support is critical for anyone who wants to represent the southern CD. Always has been. The quirky rancher Dunn, however, wanted to do it his way. Now he's done.

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Grisham, Cervantes & Apodaca

Is she really ahead that much? That was the first reaction we heard to a poll that shows Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham blowing away her three challengers for the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

The survey, done October 12-18 by Greenberg Quninlan Rosner for the progressive group Majority Institute (formerly known as Project New America), has Grisham garnering support from a whopping 75 percent of likely Democratic primary voters.

Former TV executive Jeff Apodaca placed second with 10 percent. State Senator Joe Cervantes barely registered with 3 percent. Alcohol prevention educator Peter DeBenedittis received 2 percent. Ten percent of likely voters were undecided. The poll's margin of error was put at 4.6 percent. Greenberg Quninlan Rosner has worked with Grisham, but the poll was not done for any candidate, but for the Institute.

Surely Grisham is far ahead, having the name ID of a congresswoman who has been busy campaigning for a year and raising substantial funds. But is the race closed out as some might infer from this survey?

No, the race is not closed out but it soon could be if one of her rivals does not do something radical to change the perception of the contest. Before we get to that, here's a skeptical view of the poll from a Dem consultant:

That poll should be taken with a big grain of salt. Hillary was up similarly on Bernie Sanders in the '16 NM primary and we saw how that turned out. (Clinton won by a narrow margin). People want a choice; they don't want an anointment. It's not an easy hill to climb but there's been no paid communications in the contest and no focus on that race yet.

Okay, we've taken our grains of salt.

The trouble is that Grisham's two main challengers--Apodaca and Cervantes--may be out of position. The only area where Grisham appears weak is with the left wing of her party where disgruntled but energized Bernie Sanders supporters and economic populists reside. Yet Cervantes, Apodaca and Grisham are pretty much ignoring them. DeBenedettis is running as a progressive and is not, but he's not raising the money he will meed to get that message out.

Cervantes and Apodaca have long been associated with the moderate wing of the party. Grisham has liberal positions on matters such as abortion but also has centrist instincts.

With no serious challenger to her left and with Dems hungry for a win, she is in good position with a large swath of the party. She can keep playing both liberal and centrist politics.

Cervantes and Apodaca are not going to get where they need by deriding Grisham as a professional politician. They are going to have to distinguish themselves in a much more meaningful way. That will mean taking big risks and entertaining the notion of veering left, even if it is against every instinct in their bones.

An enthusiastic, well-funded Hispanic economic populist with moderate views on social issues could give Grisham pause and have Dems voters taking a serious look. Right now there are no takers, leaving the nomination for Grisham to take. Stay tuned.

VALUABLE PRIZE

Whoever gets the Dem nomination next June will have a valuable prize indeed. A consensus has formed among the pundits that New Mexico is poised to turn the Fourth Floor into an ocean of blue after its long season of red. From the National Journal:

(New Mexico) will be Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. After eight years of Republican Martinez and in a state that Democrats have dominated in federal races for the past decade, the winner of the contested Democratic primary will be favored over likely GOP nominee Steve Pearce. The general election would feature two House members if Michelle Lujan Grisham, who leads the field in fundraising and recently hired a campaign manager, emerges with the nomination.

Let's take a diversion from the usual tales of La Politica and celebrate the glorious fall weather and the season of the matanza. First, the pause that refreshes from Avi Shama, retired UNM professor:

It is this time of year again: the harvest is over, the kids are back in school, the fragrance of fresh apples perfumes the grocery stores, and in New Mexico the pungent, smoky smell of roasting chile peppers signals the beginning of the fall season. It is that pregnant time of year when the light becomes more transparent, soothing, almost loving; when the equinox tilts toward the long nights of winter, which make some people feel melancholy; when we look backward and forward to get our bearings, readying ourselves for what comes next. It is that bittersweet time of reflection and introspection on the personal, communal and national levels.

MATANZA TIME

The crisp fall air signals it's time again for the matanza where the politicos put a pig in the ground, drink beer while waiting for it to cook and then drink more beer when they pull the pig out of the ground and start divvying up the chicharrones.

Here's Dem Guv candidate and Las Cruces area state Senator Joe Cervantes at a recent matanza with longtime lobbyist and ABQ South Valley native Dan Weaks. The event was a fund-raiser for state House Democrats for the '18 cycle.

We sent this picture to the Committee on Chicharrones of which we are an honorary member and are pleased to report that it passed muster with them.

First and foremost, it is a wooden chicharrone paddle on display, not the utterly offensive and fraudulent metal type that immediately disqualifies a politico from attending or hosting a matanza for a period of five years. The paddle gets extra points for looking exceptionally worn and in need of a thorough scrubbing.

Both Cervantes and Weaks also are commended for their matanza clothing. They sport outer wear that is excessively soiled. Cervantes looks as if he has grease droppings from the pig staining his shirt and Weaks' apron looks as though it was last laundered in 1986 when he was working for ABQ Mayor Ken Schultz. Very well done, gentlemen.

The only apparent departure from matanza tradition that the Committee on Chicharrones mentioned was the name tag Cervantes displayed:

"If you're a politician at a matanza everyone there should know who you are, and if they don't you have no right hosting the matanza but are permitted to attend," wrote the Committee in a letter sent by courier from deep in the heart of Rio Arriba County.

Well, a minor matter there, Senator, but you have been warned.

chicharrones

ABQ State Senator Michael Padilla, who is seeking the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor, will host his 6th Annual Matanza this Saturday beginning at 10:30 a.m. All appears to be in order. However, there has been some late grumbling that the Committee may want to review that early start time because it does not take into account the late Friday night habits of many matanza attendees. We'll let you know if anything comes of it.

The Committee on Chicharrones meets as circumstances demand. All meetings are held at a secret Morada in Mora County. Their word is final and there can be no appeal if they find a matanza in violation of regulations. No politico found in violation has ever been elected or re-elected.

A number of years back politico Brian Colón was photographed stirring the chicharrones with a metal paddle. Last week a number analysts attributed his loss in the mayoral race to that violation.

Thanks for making us the state's #1 site for NM politics year in and year out. See you back here Monday. 

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If you had any doubt this is the worst crime wave in ABQ's modern history, we'll settle the matter for you in a minute by quoting from the newsletter for the wealthiest gated community in the metro area, Tanoan.

Nestled in the far NE Heights not far from the Sandia Foothills, for over thirty years Tanoan has been the quiet hideaway for the metro area's business and professional aristocracy, with the norm being homes valued in the high six figures and not a few over the million dollar mark.

The gated community boasts its own security force and two secure entrances. Neighbors keep an eye out for one another. But this crime wave is a rolling tsunami and now has flooded the gilded gates of Tanoan. From Don Muller, president of Tanoan Community East, writing in the neighborhood's latest newsletter:

Tanoan is undergoing a distributing increase in home burglaries and auto thefts. . . A special meeting arranged by City Councilor Trudy Jones was held on Sept. 25. Representatives from the Foothills Police Area Command outlined steps homeowners can take to secure their home to make them less vulnerable to break-ins.

And in that same newsletter, Austin McFall, Community Association Manager, sounds the alarm:

Tanoan Community East is experiencing a concerning level of home and auto burglaries. In response, we have enhanced our documentation of visitors at the main Country Club Gate entry. . . The Community Patrol drives the entire 14 miles of Tanoan East roads every hour, 24 hours a day. . . Even so, with 14 miles of roads and 601 homes, they can't be everywhere all the time. Therefore, we also need to ask our residents to be proactive in maintaining the safety their homes and property. . .  

You often see statements from City Hall that this crime wave is not as bad as the one that bedeviled the city back in 1996. But this outbreak is different--and arguably more malicious. The crime wave in the 90's was contained geographically, not nearly as widespread as today, and we challenge City Hall to demonstrate otherwise.

And, of course, the crime epidemic back then did not go on for years as has been the case with this one. This has not been some temporary blip. This epidemic has changed the very fabric of this city.

With even the toniest of neighborhoods providing no respite from the crime wave, entrepreneurs thinking about living in ABQ and who seek out safe and upscale neighborhoods, are given yet another reason to stay away.

Mayor Berry's legacy is secure, but a sorry one. The city's dangerous and heartbreaking descent into a haven for crime will be the lasting memory he leaves when his time in office ends December 1. The ironic upside for him is that he has brought together the richest and poorest communities of this city who now have a common enemy--the criminal class that roam all quadrants of ABQ without regard to race, color or creed.

ABOUT THAT POLL

About that survey we blogged of Monday showing Dem Tim Keller with a commanding 16 point lead over Republican Dan Lewis in the ABQ mayoral race--49 to 36--and conducted for KOB-TV by PR firm Carroll Strategies, we get this from the self-described "Whatagator:

Joe, Carroll Strategies had a September poll that substantially underestimated Lewis' support, not just compared to election day results but compared to KRQE and Journal polls that were closer to the same time frame. Unless he's made a compensating adjustment to his methodology, there's reason to believe Mr. Carroll is again underestimating Lewis. Should be an interesting runoff at any rate.

The mayoral run-off is set for November 14th. Early voting will be held Oct. 25 thru Nov. 10.

COST PER VOTE

Maria Bautista took to Facebook to complain that the Alligator figuring out how much each voter cost the ABQ mayoral contenders did not include the several hundred thousand dollars a PAC spent on Keller's campaign. "BS on Keller. Count PAC money!" she declared. A reader calculates the Keller's cost per vote would rise to near $15, up from $9.98, if the PAC money was included.

The cost per vote report is on the Monday blog. If you missed it, just scroll down.

GUV MONEY CHASE

Rep. Lujan Grisham

Sad but true. It takes exceptionally big money to run for Governor of New Mexico and until that changes the money chase is going to be a huge factor in determining who the voters will see in front of them. So we're off to the money chase where fresh campaign reports were filed by the contenders on Monday.

ABQ Dem Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham and GOP hopeful Rep. Steve Pearce did what was expected of them and remain the front-runners for their party primaries next June. Pearce especially so since he is the only GOP candidate and will likely remain the only one.

Grisham has two major foes--State Senator Joe Cervantes of Las Cruces and ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca. While both stepped up their money game with large personal loans--Cervantes $400,000 and Apodaca $450,000--Grisham reported raising $1.369 million for the period and a cash on hand balance of $1.590 million. That compares to Cervantes' cash balance of $747,000 and Apodaca's $697,000.

Pearce has $911,000 in cash and if he wins his legal battle to transfer $1 million in his congressional account to his Guv account that total would zoom to near $2 million. Grisham has already passed the $2 million mark in total funds raised.

Apodaca and Cervantes avoided getting blown out by drawing on their personal bank accounts but they will have to hustle in the next four months if they are to avoid being overwhelmed by Grisham when the spending starts.

Apodaca confirmed to us in July that he expected to raise in the vicinity of $600,000 in his first report and although he reports a total haul of $900,000 that statement drew an Alligator strike:

You verified from the candidate himself that he raised about $600 to 700K at that point--through July 5. If you look at his report, he had only raised $179K through July 5. Even if you count his $50K in loans in April, that would be just $229K. Maybe he knew he was going to loan another $400K, but he didn't do that until last week, on Oct. 2. They exaggerated their fundraising ability. 

Obviously, there's no slack now. The race for the New Mexican governorship is on and anything you say can and will be used against you.

Apodaca's contributors included old hands from the Guv administration of his father, Jerry Apodaca. Nino Trujillo gave $2,500 and George Goldstein came with $2,000.

Rep. Pearce

ABQ restaurateur Nick Kapnison split his bets--giving both Grisham and Apodaca $2,500 apiece. Ditto for Pojoaque Pueblo which gave both hopefuls $5,500. Ultra Health, a big player in medical cannabis in the state, was another splitter, coming with $5,000 each for Michelle and Jeff.

Grisham took in $5,000 from the Robles Rael Anaya law firm that specializes in government work. Lobbyist Vanessa Alarid, who counts among her clients the developers of the controversial Santolina project, gave Grisham $5,500.

Cervantes received most of his contributions from relatives and entities involved in his family's large farming and property management businesses in Dona Ana County.

Pearce raised big bucks from the oil and gas industry, with the Chase family of Artesia giving heavily. He paid his longtime fund-raiser Andrea Goff nearly $50,000 for helping him bring in his haul.

Grisham paid out tens of thousands to DC's Anne Lewis Strategies for online communications. She also made payments to the consulting firm run by former Gov. Richardson Chief of Staff Dave Contarino. He is producing commercials for the campaign. Apodaca shelled out major dollars to the ubiquitous Rio Strategies headed by Alan Packman who has become a prominent consultant for Democrats. He is also handling Tim Keller's campaign for mayor.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Finally, this one must have been especially sweet for the congresswoman. Entravision, the former employer of Apodaca, gave her $5,500. Apodaca filed a wrongful dismissal suit against the company but lost. Guess Entravision got a bit of revenge but Apodaca did not walk away broke, judging by that $450,000 in loans he gave himself.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Damon Martinez

Will former US attorney Damon Martinez be lucky number 7? Martinez confirmed to me this week he will "soon" announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham who is seeking the Dem nod for Governor. Martinez will be the seventh candidate to announce, making for an increasingly competitive and unpredictable primary in June of '18.