Securing the Democratic nomination for governor won't come at a bargain basement price. Inflation isn't exempting the cost of campaigning and the $4 million that MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti each spent in 2022 to win their nominations is expected to be equaled and likely surpassed.

Already Deb Haaland says she has raised nearly as much as Lujan Grisham spent in her three way primary, reporting a total of $3.7 million raised. Haaland spent $1.7 million as of April 7.

What does that mean for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, Haaland's chief rival? We put that question to a veteran Dem consultant not affiliated with any Guv campaign: 

Bregman will definitely have to raise and spend $3 to 5 million if he wants to compete against Haaland. She may or may not spend more but for Bregman $3 million is the low, low end to stay in the fight. 

What about the immense wealth that Bregman's son has accumulated with his stellar baseball career? Could that come into play? The consultant replied:

His son would not give him vast sums as an individual. The maximum amount an individual can contribute is $12,000 per election cycle (primary or general election), meaning a total of $24,000 if contributing to both. But Bregman's son (Alex) could donate as much as he wanted to a political action committee that would support his father's campaign. That is an ace in the hole that Bregman may have that could make a real difference if in the months ahead he gets the race in play.

Despite the continued decline in audience for over the air TV stations like KOB, KOAT and KRQE, political ads at those stations are more than keeping up with inflation. Back to the consultant:

It wasn't long ago that an effective ad buy--at least 1,000 ratings points per week was going for $100,000. That price is more than double now, so it will cost the candidates at least $1.6 million to stay on TV in ABQ for the two months head of next June's primary. And that does not include El Paso to reach Las Cruces voters. 

Broadcast TV and cable is still important in campaign advertising because voters aged 50 and over still depend on them as their main source of information and they are the age group most likely to vote. 

Bregman has just begun his fund-raising and reported $76,000 in cash in April. 

The consultant says we won't need early polling to determine the leader in the race, saying if Bregman has not raised around $2 million by late fall, it could be a sign of trouble. Ditto for Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima who faces the steepest fundraising hill to climb. 

WHAT THEY ARE

Here's some insider info on the TV game that is so critical to the candidates as explained by campaign operatives:

 In TV advertising, "1,000 points" refers to Gross Ratings points that measures the reach and frequency of an ad campaign. One GRP represents 1% of the target audience reached by an advertisement. If a TV ad reaches 1% of a target audience of 100,000 people, that’s 1 GRP. If the ad airs multiple times, the GRPs accumulate. This means the ad campaign has achieved a cumulative reach equivalent to 1,000% of the target audience. For instance, it could mean reaching 100% of the audience 10 times (frequency) or 50% of the audience 20 times, depending on the campaign structure.

Thanks, but that's like going to summer school. Time to jump in the pool and sign along with this.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Jon Lipschutz

Sam Bregman hardly had time to gloat over the news that Deb Haaland's campaign manager was forced out the door when Bregman's manager for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination was dropped in hot water:

A new lawsuit filed by the New Mexico Ethics Commission alleges the nonprofit New Mexico Safety over Profit failed to report at least $56,000 spent lobbying against medical malpractice reform before the legislative session. The group’s executive director, Jon Lipschutz, manages. . .Sam Bregman’s campaign. Bregman also serves as the (Bernalillo County) District attorney. . .New Mexico Safety Over Profit operates as a 501c(4) nonprofit, putting it under no federal legal obligations to disclose its donors, thus earning the moniker “dark money groups.” . .. That federal status, however, does not exempt the organization from the disclosure requirements of New Mexico’s Lobbyist Regulation Act or Campaign Reporting Act. 

Lipschutz is a longtime time Dem operative who operates the firm Big I Strategies and comes at his politics from the center-right, not exactly the dominant strain in today's progressive dominated Dem party. But Bregman is veering right and trying to break that mold and upset Haaland for the nomination next June.

That both of the leading Dem candidates are navigating troubles with their managers at this early stage is not exactly inspiring for the party but the Republicans are also wobbling early.

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, the only official GOP hopeful, appears on the edge of pulling out of the race and possible contender Duke Rodriguez is encountering turbulence over his voter registration and voter history.

Back at the Haaland camp, mum is the word over the story we broke revealing that her campaign manager, Scott Forrester, was sent to the showers because of disputes over campaign finances and strategy. 

When asked for comment by the New Mexican a spokeswoman for Haaland would not even acknowledge that Forrester was ousted. (Is that how they would run the government?)

Since then we've learned that the financial issue is over how much Forrester has been compensated by the campaign and that talks continue over that and any future role he might have.

Watching all of this from the sidelines is the third Dem candidate for the nomination, former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima. Hey, Ken. How's your manager doing?  

CAMPAIGN JAB 

Before he got the bad news on Lipschutz, Bregman fired off this fund-raising appeal in the aftermath of the Forrester news with plenty of indirect jibes at front-runner Haaland: 

Too many politicians in Washington are weak, and Democrats are not doing enough to fight back. They cave under pressure. Meanwhile, families in New Mexico are desperate for real change. Our schools are struggling. Crime is on the rise. Healthcare is out of reach for too many. And while the political class talks in circles, folks back home pay the price. That’s why I’m running for Governor. Not to play it safe. Not to climb the political ladder. But to get things done and to fight for New Mexicans who are tired of excuses.

Haaland isn't dignifying Bregman with any hits at this stage and doesn't need to. But she does have her hands full steadying her campaign that in the post-Kamala Harris era finds itself on shifting ground.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Heinrich in Taos

Criticized for being adrift in the US Senate and for not actually liking the job, Senator Martin Heinrich seems to be finding his voice in the early stages of his third term.

That's thanks in no small part to President Trump and Republican lawmakers whose environmental policies especially rankle the Democratic senator with a well-known fondness for the natural environment. 

Senate Republicans are proposing to sell off up to 3.3 million acres of federally owned land in 11 Western states to make room for affordable housing, a move Heinrich calls a "fire sale and "taking up a sledgehammer."

Here's Heinrich, the state's senior senator, at a Taos rally called to fight the plan as well as the president's push for more power to abolish national monuments including several in New Mexico: 

Our national monuments are about who we are. They tell the story of our ancestors, support jobs and our rural economies, and connect Americans to our history and the land itself. No president can erase that. … We’re ready to fight back — and we won’t back down.

It's the kind of sharp-edged rhetoric that is not a Heinrich trademark but now with what he sees as an existential threat hanging over the lands that he cherishes, he is revealing a firmer and more confident voice backed up by his increasing seniority.

Just months ago Heinrich was close to leaving his job and announcing a run for governor. We discussed his change of heart with a close Heinrich political associate:

He really dropped his bid for governor because the arrival of Trump gave a new depth and seriousness to his position as a senator. It wasn't political. He sees his work now in a different light with more urgency and focus as the stakes go sky high for the issues that he cares most about. 

Heinrich's rise to ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has put more institutional power behind him. If the Democrats take back the Senate in the years ahead he will likely become chairman of that committee so important to the state. 

He is now following the career paths of Senators Domenici and Bingaman who found great satisfaction chairing the panel, a feeling that Heinrich, who came to the Hill in 2009 as a congressman, finally appears to be realizing.

Heinrich, 52, quietly campaigned to become Secretary of Interior under President Biden who eventually chose fellow New Mexican Deb Haaland. But if he sustains this trajectory of his senate career--ironically inspired by Trump--his strengthened voice will reverberate on the Hill and the nation.

THE JUNIOR SENATOR

Meanwhile, Senator Ben Ray Lujan, seeking re-election to a second term next year, also appears to be finding renewed purpose in the chaotic DC atmosphere. 

While Heinrich concentrates on the state's environment and natural resources, Lujan, a new member of of the Senate Finance Committee, is focusing on the nitty gritty of entitlement programs--Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and food stamps--that are the target of budget-cutters. They are especially vital in high poverty New Mexico. He says:

. . .Cuts would shut down clinics, rip away food and care, and leave families with nowhere to turn. For seniors living on fixed incomes, for parents working to make ends meet, and for rural communities already facing barriers to care – these programs are lifelines. I will keep fighting in the Senate to stop these cuts and protect the dignity and well-being of every New Mexican. 

Like Heinrich, Lujan, 53, came to Washington as a congressman in 2009. He has always demonstrated notable political skills but they have atrophied since his arrival in the Senate. But with Trump also reinvigorating him, the state's US Senate delegation is looking balanced and equipped for their long battle ahead. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Duke Rodriguez

Foes of marijuana magnate Duke Rodriguez are trying to slow his swagger while he considers a bid for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination and says that he could put up $2 million of personal money to make the run. Those foes appear to have been successful in tying him up on his voting history as Rodriguez wins an endorsement from his former boss, ex-Governor Gary Johnson. 

The Rodriguez rivals are focusing on his residency and voting history in the state, feeding the rumor mill that Rodriguez may not have been a NM resident for the five consecutive years required of would-be governors by the state constitution. 

In addition, they say that Rodriguez only registered to vote in the state earlier this year and that there is no record of him casting ballots in in recent state elections. 

Those charges, according to state records, appears to be a fact. They show that Rodriguez did not register to vote until January 14 of this year and does not have any history of voting in recent state elections.  

Rodriguez, 68, has a home in the far NE Heights of ABQ and also a residence in Scottsdale, AZ where his marijuana business Ultra Health, New Mexico's largest cannabis company, is headquartered. 

We interviewed Rodriguez via email, asking first about his registration and residency. He said:   

I am a registered voter in New Mexico, and I have owned a home here continuously since 1979. In just

the short time since expressing interest in this race, it’s become clear that some would rather focus on distraction and rumor. The three most common falsehoods I’ve heard so far: I don’t live in New Mexico; I’ve donated to Democrats and I own a cannabis company. Here are the facts: 

 • I have resided in New Mexico continuously for over five years—indeed, for over four decades. 

 • Like many in our close-knit state, I’ve supported individuals across party lines when the cause or candidate aligned with New Mexico’s needs.  

• And yes, I proudly operate a successful cannabis company that provides jobs, contributes to the economy, and reflects the will of New Mexico voters.

Monahan: While you’re registered to vote from ABQ, there’s no voting history (on the SOS website). Have you voted in New Mexico elections recently? And were you registered in Arizona recently before New Mexico?  

Rodriguez: I’ve answered clearly. At this point, I’m taking a page from Governor Gary Johnson’s playbook—keep it focused, keep it real, and don’t take the bait. Truth is, we’re all a little worn out from the same old political playbook: stir up drama, throw some shade, hope nobody notices there’s no real plan. That’s not my style. I’m here to talk about ideas, solutions, and a better path forward for New Mexico. So I’ll keep it positive. Let others play the “they said” game—I’m too busy working on what we can do. 

But Rodriguez did not "clearly" answer the questions. His recent NM voter registration and lack of a voting history is now an issue. As for having five years of consecutive residency, that is sure to be argued over until completely sorted out. 

All of this leaves plenty of fodder for the sharks circulating in Republican waters as the race for the nomination prepares to intensify.

DUKE AND JOHNSON 

Gary Johnson

Meanwhile, former Governor Gary Johnson ('95-'03), who Rodriguez served under as cabinet secretary for the Human Services Department and who pushed for legalized marijuana during his two terms, offers an early endorsement of his former employee. Rodriguez sent this text exchange between the pair: 

Johnson: Duke, I would love to have a conversation with you about

your running for governor.  I absolutely believe that you can win and need to win for the future of New Mexico. Gary Johnson.

Rodriguez: Thank you again for a great conversation. Would you mind if I share your message? 

Johnson: Share it! 

The only announced candidate for the GOP nod is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. Other possibles include former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, former NM Supreme Court Justice Judy Nakamura and Roswell state representative and oilman Mark Murphy.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The Rodriguez possible candidacy resurfaced an issue rarely mentioned--the five year residency requirement for governor candidates. Here's the deal. . .

To run for governor a candidate must be a resident of the state for at least five consecutive years immediately preceding the election. The requirement is stated in the New Mexico Constitution, Article V, Section 3. Also, the candidate must be at least 30 years old, a citizen of the United States, and not have served two consecutive terms as governor. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.