Brian Sanderoff, President of highly-regarded Research and Polling, Inc., tells "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" that he has been in the field this week and will report his exclusive poll results on the controversial unification election in Sunday's editions of the ABQ Journal. http://abqjournal.com/ Brian said this poll has presented special challenges because it is a mail-in ballot. "We have to ask the person we poll if they received a ballot, whether they filled it out and mailed it, or whether they are likely or not likely to vote and mail it in. The election concludes November 4 and I asked Brian if his poll could be likened to an exit poll since many of those he will interview will already have voted. "To some extent, yes. However, I would not compare it to the accuracy of exit polls. A good portion of the sample will be of those who have already voted, but not all." Brian and I kicked around the numbers, looked at a 1999 city mail-in election and the return of ballots so far and concluded turnout for the election has a decent chance of attracting over 30% of registered voters, but not a whole lot more.

Brian's record is hard to match in the polling business and he is rightfully proud of getting it right. Republican Roswell State Senator Rod Adair e mailed me recently charging that Brian had botched the polling over state constitutional amendment two which narrowly passed last month. The poll had the amendment passing with 55% of the vote, but it barely won. Adair called that a miss. But Brian points out: "It did pass. The poll was taken several weeks before the election, and I said then if the campaign heated up in the last few days it could be close. That's what happened." Sanderoff was candid saying he would like to have been closer and also would have liked a larger polling sample in that special election. Rod is a polling expert, but also a hard-hitting partisan. Brian better keep up the good work. If he gets one wrong, Rod will never let him live it down.

The sampling for the unification poll is large and Sanderoff is again working overtime to get it right. I asked him in his role as a veteran political analyst if he thought the measure would have a tough time passing. He said he did. I agree because the election has been marked by unprecedented confusion.

Research and Polling is not a political polling firm. It does most of its business with major corporations throughout the southwest. But Sanderoff's first love is politics. He even had a political career long ago. When we were classmates at the University of New Mexico in the 1970's he was elected Attorney General of the student government. But since he won't tell me what that Sunday poll will show, I won't tell how I voted in that race!

KOAT--HIDING DIANNE ANDERSON?

I say hiding because last night in one of the rare times the veteran anchorwoman was shown off the anchor chair, she knocked the ball out of the park with a high-powered interview with Esther Beckley, one of the perpetrators of the notorious Albuquerque Hollywood Video murders of 1996. Five died in the terrible crime that rocked the political and criminal justice system. It was absorbing television, not glorifying the interviewee, but getting real insight into this heinous crime. In the jailhouse interview, Beckley cracked under Anderson's soft, but probing manner.

Asked by Anderson why she pleaded guilty when she claims it was her accomplice who actually pulled the trigger, Beckley paused, choked up and sighed: "Because I am." Hearing that hit hard for all who mourned for Albuquerque that terrible day.

If KOAT is looking for an edge over its noteworthy rivals they may want to get Dianne away from the teleprompter more often and keep her interview chair warm. By the way, Anderson comes from a media family. Her father was in the radio business in Missouri.

Bookmark our site, send it to interested friends and check for regular updates on the ever-changing world of NM politics. joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com

I started this blog a month ago for my political junkie friends who said we needed a spot on the net to share our common interest and get into the stuff that you just don't hear about, but has a big impact on the politics and policies of our state. Well, little did I know that we had a lot of other folks outside of our circle who were also hungry for the "inside stories" of La Politica. Thanks to all of you "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" has found a large and loyal audience in its beginning weeks and I want to thank you for your support.

Because of your gracious welcome I am committed to continuing this effort and doing all I can to provide incisive coverage of New Mexico politics with a sense of community and fun. This audience contains the best and brightest minds in the state, which means when I make a mistake or my analysis is a bit wide of the mark, I don't have to wait long to be corrected. I hope you forgive the occasional misspelling or twisted phrase that gets by me. I have also enjoyed the ribbing over the lengthy web address we have. Let's just say we work extra hard to make sure everyone wants to find it. And what we miss on occasion in spelling or grammar, we hope we make up for by bringing you cutting-edge political news you can't find anywhere else. In our first month New Mexico learned first, accurately and exclusively from this website that:

----Gary King would run for Congress against Steve Pearce
----The State Senate's Democratic Caucus behind-closed-doors negative response to the special session
----The decision by State Rep. Fred Luna, the longest serving member of the State House, to seek yet another two year term
----The first behind-the-scenes story on the strategy and players of the Citizens for Greater ABQ in the ABQ election
----The news that Alibi columnist Jerry Ortiz y Pino would run for the senate seat being vacated by Richard Romero.
These stories and more are posted now or can be found in the archives link near the top of the page.

It's been a great first month for our site and we have plans for the future to make it even bigger and better. I feel a special bond with all of you who have been with me building the ground floor. Again, a big thank you for your vote of confidence, for your e mails and news tips and for letting your friends know about us. Please continue to let me know what you think. I want to run more reader info and guest quotes about state politics in future posts. You can e mail me thru the link in this page or at jmonahan@ix.netcom.com

Meanwhile, I just heard something about a poll coming out on the proposed unification of the city and county, so I have to run!

Warm Regards,
Joe
joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com Thanks for bookmarking our site and sending it to interested friends.

It’s all in the family as former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez is called on by Governor Richardson to serve as his lobbyist on the sex offender bill making it thru the Legislature’s Special Session. That’s according to longtime supporters of Raymond’s in contact with “New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan.”

Sanchez, the longest serving House Speaker in NM history, will be spending most of his time in the State Senate. Who will he be lobbying? None other than his own brother State Senator Michael Sanchez of Valencia County, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and a criminal defense attorney. In past years that committee has been the political graveyard for sex offender legislation similar to that being pursued by Big Bill. While it easily passed the House this week, the trial lawyers and civil liberties groups have a stronger lobby in the Senate, thus Bill’s employment of Raymond as his lobbyist. No word on whether or how much the former speaker is being paid for his lobbying.

Sanchez was elected to a 13 year stretch as Speaker in 1987. It ended when John Sanchez ousted Raymond from his ABQ north valley seat in 2000 in the the most expensive House race in state history. John Sanchez became the GOP gubernatorial nominee against Richardson in 2002. Interestingly, Raymond Sanchez lost his seat to John Sanchez in part because John accused Raymond of being soft on child porn laws. Raymond was outraged and even recevied a letter of support on the issue from Republican Senator R.L. Stockard of Farmington. Stockard was punished with the loss of his seat when then GOP Chairman John Dendahl let loose on him for supporting Raymond. Earlier this year Big Bill hired Stockard for a short-lived stint as Homeland Security Director.

Raymond is a trial lawyer. The brothers Sanchez came from humble beginnings in Belen to walk the corridors of power in Santa Fe.

Thanks for visiting. Remember to bookmark our site and send it to interested friends.

Reliable sources at the Roundhouse report that there is NO chance of the governor’s proposed alcohol taxes passing. After being assured they were not imbibing, we asked our high-level contacts why. The reply:

“A big lobbying campaign has already started. Lawmakers are receiving hundreds of postcards from liquor industry employees, including those of the influential Maloof companies. It is effective.”

Add to that Senate Finance Chair Ben Altimirano who put on his running shoes to immediately distance himself from the booze tax when it came down from the Fourth Floor. Ben and the budget boys think state liquor taxes are plenty high already and the proposed increase that would double or triple the tax on beer, wine and liquor would make NM one of highest liquor tax states in the nation. Oh, and next year’s an election year and maybe the industry might make some campaign contributions. Think so?

By the way, Ed Mahr is the leading lobbyist for the liquor industry. He is solo now, but for a number of years teamed with the legendary lobbyist Bob McBride, who is also busy at the special session. Old timers will remember Mahr when he was managing editor of the ABQ Journal back in the 70’s. As for the liquor industry, it was one of the most powerful forces in the Legislature in the 60’s. Times change and today the liquor and tobacco lobbies are very much on the defensive, but still fighting.

THE BIG PICTURE ON THE BONDS
About 120 years ago Albuquerque split into Old Town and "New Town." New Town was next to the new railroad tracks where hyper-growth was soon to occur. Is history going to repeat? Last night's rejection of the $52 million street bond package, heavily weighted to today's booming West Side and also containing money for the controversial Paseo Del Norte extension, opens the door for the West Side to look for a way out. The rest of the city turned its collective back on the bond package, leaving District Five a lonely island across the river choking in its traffic. The West Side with its young families and suburban lifestyles stoked by a seemingly never ending housing boom is devastated by the defeat and extremely isolated politically. Sections of the West Side may look for a way out. Already the 12 thousand acre Quail Ranch land is going into Rio Rancho and that city is hungrily eyeing more. The street bond defeat may hasten the process. Developers, contractors and realtors have little hope of changing the political mind-set in the short-term after the stunning rebuke of their Citizens for a Greater ABQ Committee (CGA), which spent over $125,00 only to see all its pro-growth candidates go down in flames, along with the street bonds. The possibility of a separate political entity out West is only a mumble now, but Gov. Richardson took power way from ABQ earlier this year when he signed over vital zoning and water authority to Bernalillo County because of fear that the present city council was thwarting the economy. And you can look for more pressure from pro-growth area governments, perhaps with the help of the business community, to grab for more in light of this election. It was the first time a city bond issue was defeated since 1985.

CGA: MAD AS HELL, BUT NOT AS MAD AS THE VOTERS

You look at the roster of Citizens for Greater ABQ and you see some of this area's top quality people; brilliant businessmen and women, some so successful they give a lot of their money away. That makes it all the sadder that they were duped, yes duped, by a few of their members into sanctioning a fear-based, slash and burn campaign, all out of proportion to the perceived threat. It was a classic fight or flight response. CGA was a huge loser last night, winning nothing, but setting unnecessary records for spending. The hard right-wing elements that hijacked CGA have given the business community a black eye and the need to look in the mirror. The Chamber of Commerce, long involved in ill-fated and losing political efforts, took this one down the primrose path as well, turning power over to whatever 20 something political operatives were running this thing. And what did they get? An empty cup and maybe something real to fear from the new power alignment they unintentionally helped give birth to. In other times guys like George Maloof and Chuck Lanier advanced business interests in a moderate and calm manner. They had perspective. Maybe the go-go days we live in make that approach antiquated, but the business leaders who have legitimate concerns need to contribute leaders to the community who know the art of compromise. On the other side, hopefully O'Malley and Heinrich will be the type of personalities who know you can't have it all. The all or nothing approach on growth, roads and bridges has torn the town apart. CGA further shredded the body politic. If a public safety tax can be approved with a coalition of liberals and conservatives, as it was last night, you know we can have compromise. No one should have to vote with their feet. There's room enough in this town for everyone, including a reconstituted CGA serving as a bridge between business and the community at large. Just lose the initials guys. I'm afraid they had their run.

TWO C'S GET AN "F"

West Side Councilor Michael Cadigan and Abq Mayor Martin Chavez will take major hits for Tuesday's bond defeat. They campaigned hard for the issue and it failed. They will be blamed. That is the brutal political reality. Cadigan already survived a recall attempt earlier in his term, set off partly by his support of the Planned Growth Strategy, which many West Sider's see as an attack on them. Cadigan left the PGS nest to support the street bonds and Paseo. His Jekyll and Hyde approach on growth issues make him vulnerable. Maybe he can convince his fellow councilor's they should throw the beaten down West Side a bone and make him council president. But don't count on it. Meanwhile, humiliated West Sider's may take out their revenge on him.

Mayor Marty loves his job. No one will accuse him of not having his heart in it. But the old fight was not in him last night and his subdued rejoinder that the "people have spoken' had "give-up" written all over it. The repudiation of the street bond on his watch is going to be manna from heaven for his critics. His political base is the West Side, and like Cadigan he will be scored for not delivering. Also, the extreme division of the vote cries out for leaders who can bring the sides together. Can the mayor pull his dog from the fight long enough to do that? It's asking a lot from anyone. The election results opens the floodgate for a bevy of candidates who claim the leadership skills they will fault Chavez for lacking. Some in the Bond Advocacy Group he worked with are already pointing fingers at him for the defeat saying he made it a referendum on his administration, and that's why it was defeated. At least for the near future the city council holds the high cards. The mayor, like the rest of us, will be watching to see how they play them.


THE GRIEGOS: PAST AND FUTURE
ABQ's longest serving Councilor, Vince Griego, passed the torch to winner Debbie O'Malley last night. Having endorsed her he leaves the scene a winner after 29 years. Enter stage right a new Griego. Eric. The District Three councilor elected two years ago claimed big victories Tuesday. He sponsored the quarter cent public safety tax on the council and it won solid approval citywide last night. He also has been associated with Soltari Consulting which engineered the defeat of the street bonds. Clearly, Eric Griego has the mayor's job clearly in his sights now. His next move may be for the council presidency, either in 04' or 05'. In any event, the race is now on for title of "Chief Progressive" and Griego wants the title. His vision may not include olive branches to the West Side because under the no run-off rule in a mayor's race he, like Jim Baca before him, would target the old liberal areas of the city to capture the top job. Griego's plan to refloat a street bond issue excluding Paseo in a special election (another election!?) appears unlikely at this writing. He is brash and tough but is he big enough in victory to look for a way to build togetherness, or is the plan to continue the divide that leads to electoral success, but governmental gridlock? Stay tuned

HEINRICH AND O'MALLEY: CAN YOU TEACH ME THAT?
Even their foes bow to their political skills. The blow-out victories of Debbie O'Malley in District Two (she received a whopping 45% in a four way race)--and Martin Heinrich in District Six (39.9% in a six way face-off) had political junkies effusive and giddy. Hey, weren't those races supposed to be a at least a little bit closer? Both campaigned for nearly a year, fielded good get-out-the-vote organizations and had the issues in their districts nailed. And they worked their butts off. They also don't come across as professional politicians, rather seeing the job as a community service. Let's hope the TV exposure doesn't change them.

BEING NICE CAN WIN?
How about that. Those political experts, the cops and the firemen, put on the winningest campaign of them all last night, easily securing an additional quarter cent sales tax for their departments as well as for corrections and crime prevention programs. Their simple down-home TV asking voters in a nice, humble tone for support shows that sugar still works. Of course, this was an issue, not candidates. But it was still refreshing to see the electorate treated with respect. Treating the voters with respect; that's a novel concept.


BRAD WINTER
He has the soul of Hamlet; ever doubting the decision to be made, but Winter's personality is the winner. CGA embarrassed themselves with the overdone attacks on Winter, a moderate Republican who looks for compromise on the council. The heavy-handed CGA attacks backfired and Winter beat out Patrick Milligan by 5 points or about 350 votes. Winter rightly complained about the attacks, but his opponents pointed out that in 1999 Winter beat incumbent Sam Bregman with the help of a Republican Party hit campaign that, like the CGA attack, was widely complained about. Winter now is the senior member of the council with only four years under his belt. His bridge building services will be more in demand than ever. Winter withdrew a bit after being stung by intra-council fights and an ethics charge that was thrown out the window. Observers say he needs to step up to the plate now in light of the West Side versus the world vote last night. Winter could find himself council president again if Cadigan and Griego fight over it. CGA candidate and Winter opponent Patrick Milligan is a community leader who campaigned earnestly and with some good intentions. But his campaign sold its soul to the big money, big attacks that work in larger campaigns, but not in contests where many voters know and personally like a candidate as they did Winter. Still, Milligan is a bright bulb and we can hope that our elections attract more of his kind, but without thee alter ego committees.

THE VOTE COUNT
The ghost that haunts Government Center on Election Nights apparently keeps on the County side of the building because once again the City of Albuquerque pulled off the vote-count without a hitch. New City Clerk Judy Chavez was nervous, but she and her staff had the election put to bed by 10:30 p.m. Who said it can't be done? Of course, the city is not deluged with absentee ballots (about six thousand) while the county battles absenteeitis regularly and comes up lacking. (New Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera seems to be breaking the jinx) Still, Judy deserves credit for giving democracy a good face last night. I have worked with city clerks dating back to 1974. Every one of them has given us good elections. Ironically, the county staff gives them a great deal of help, but is never recognized for it, just the disasters that have befallen them when they are in charge.

THE MEDIA
For a small election it got big coverage. All the major networks and major papers covered the election issues and candidates well. Voters had plenty of opportunity to be informed. Turnout came in at 23% of registered voters, not a historic low, but on the low end of the scale. The media can't be blamed. The negative campaigning continues to turn people away from the voting booths. Read all the results here http://www.bernco.gov/clerk/city2003/results.htm

Thanks for tuning in here and on the radio last night. Your support is appreciated. Bookmark our site and pass it on to your friends.

Because you love politics here is a "sneak peek" of my opening script for tonight's election broadcast to be delivered live to Albuquerque and north central New Mexico over KANW 89.1 FM Thanks for visting and let your friends know about us (joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com)



GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO LIVE, CONTINUOS COVERAGE OF THE 2003 ALBUQUERQUE MUNICIPAL ELECTION. THE POLLS ARE CLOSED. I’M JOE MONAHAN.

WHAT A TOWN WITHOUT PITY CAN DO. ESPECIALLY IF YOU’RE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF A FIVE HUNDRED POUND GORILLA CALLED THE CITIZENS FOR GREATER ALBUQUERQUE. FOR IT WAS IN THIS CITY ELECTION THAT THIS GROUP OF DEVELOPERS, REALTORS AND CONTRACTORS STUCK THEIR HEADS OUT THE WINDOW AND YELLED: ‘WE’RE MAD AS HELL AND WERE NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE.

IN CASE YOU MISSED THE YELLING, CGA PAINTED THE TOWN RED WITH NEGATIVE RAGE MAIL TO THE TUNE OF 125 GRAND. IF THEIR CANDIDATES DON’T MAKE IT TONIGHT, THAT WILL BE VERY EXPENSIVE THERAPY.

BUT IT SEEMED ALL OF THE DUKE CITY NEEDED TO BE PUT ON THE COUCH DURING THIS CAMPAIGN. THE DIAGNOSIS: SPLIT PERSONALITY. OUR FAIR VILLAGE WAS TORN ASUNDER BY PRO-GROWTH VERSUS SLOW GROWTH. FOR PASEO OR AGAINST PASEO, TOO MUCH FOR THE WEST SIDE, OR TOO LITTLE FOR THE WEST SIDE.

THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING IN CITY POLITICS SINCE THEY DID AWAY WITH THE RUN-OFF SYSTEM AND CANDIDATES COULD GET ELECTED WITH 20 PER CENT OF THE VOTE. NOT EXACTLY WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR UNITY. 2003 WAS ANOTHER NEW LOW POINT, WITH CGA MONEY TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION. AND ANTI-PASEO MONEY TRYING TO DIVIDE IT.

BUT THERE IS NO DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE TO CURE WHAT AILS OUR BODY POLITIC IN RIVER CITY. THE MAYOR , HOBBLED BY THE ABQPAC SCANDAL AND SOUR RELATIONS WITH THE COUNCIL, IS FIGHTING HIS OWN FIGHTS. ON THE COUNCIL A PANEL OF NEWCOMERS CAN’T GET THE PRESCRIPTION RIGHT FOR BEING NICE TO ONE ANOTHER, OR FOR GETTING THE JOB DONE.

INTO THIS WHIRL OF DISSENSION, BITTERNESS AND ESOTERIC RIVALRIES COMES THE BIG MONEY THAT DOMINATED THIS CAMPAIGN. WHEN POLITICIANS CAN’T WORK TOGETHER THE RESULT IS UNCERTAINTY, WHICH BRINGS FEAR WHICH BRINGS OVERREACTION.

A CITY COUNCILOR GETS 900 BUCKS A MONTH AND ALL THE E MAIL HE CAN ANSWER. THE CAMPAIGNS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE NEIGHBORHOOD ORIENTED BUT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME POLLUTED WITH BIG MONEY AND DEPRESSINGLY NEGATIVE TACTICS THAT HAVE INFECTED ALL OTHER ELECTIONS.

WE CAN HOPE THE DOCTOR SAYS ‘THIS TOO SHALL PASS--ITS NOT THE WHOLE SYSTEM, JUST A BAD VIRUS.” THAT’S WHAT SUPPORTERS OF THE PROPOSED UNIFICATION OF THE CITY AND BERNALILLO COUNTY WERE SPINNING. BUT NOT MANY HEARD AS THAT MAIL-IN ELECTION COINCIDED WITH THE CITY BALLOTING, WHICH CAME ON THE HEELS OF A SPECIAL STATE ELECTION.

HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN ALL THAT? THAT DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY, FORMER GOVERNOR DAVE CARGO, PUTS IT THIS WAY: “PEOPLE IN NEW MEXICO LOVE POLITICS, THEY JUST DON’T LOVE GOVERNING.”

GATHERED AT OUR TRADITIONAL ROUNDTABLE TONIGHT ARE MY DOCTORS OF LA POLITICA. IT’S A SPECIALIZED AREA AND ITS MEMBERS HAVE EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN TREATING NEGATIVE ATTACKS, FOOT IN MOUTH DISEASE AND OTHER AFFLICTIONS RELEVANT TO THEIR FIELD. TOP NEW MEXICO LOBBYIST SCOTT SCANLAND SAYS THE WHOLE ELECTION SHOULD HAVE BEEN FILMED FOR A FUTURE EPISODE OF ER, STATE REPRESENTATIVE LARRY LARRANGA THINKS AFTER THIS CAMPAIGN, THE MAILBOXES IN TOWN NEED TO BE STERILIZED. AND FORMER COUNTY COMMISSIONER LENTON MALRY BELIEVES WHEN IT COMES TO CITY POLITICS, LAUGHTER IS THE BEST MEDICINE. HE'S GOT THAT RIGHT.


NOW IT'S OVER TO MY FRIEND AND BROADCAST COLLEAGUE SCOTT SCANLAND FOR THE FIRST PROGNOSIS OF ELECTION 2003...SCOTT

Top New Mexico lobbyist Scott Scanland and I will start at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM by setting the stage for the night of excitement and drama to come. GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga (also a former Highway Secretary who is an expert on Paseo Del Norte and the street bonds) will join us for analysis and perspective as will our longtime contributor, former Democratic State Rep. and County Commissioner Lenton Malry. We'll also have exclusive early results from our poll watchers. The Green Party's Steve Cabiedes will assist with the numbers. And, of course, we'll have all the winners and losers. When all the votes are in we'll convene a late night "wrap-up" session to talk city and New Mexico politics--stuff you just won't hear anywhere else. Councilor Payne will be among my guests, along with State Rep. James Taylor who will phone home from the Special Session in Santa Fe. Stay with us all night Tuesday. I am proud to say this marks my 16th consecutive year of anchoring every major Albuquerque and New Mexico election on public radio station KANW. Scott, President of New Mexico Government Affairs, has been with us for most of those. The General Manager is Michael Brasher who is also a Bernalillo County Commissioner. The station is heard throughout north central New Mexico with a crystal clear signal, so bring your radio with you Tuesday and don't miss a thing! Thanks to PNM and Enterprise rent-a-car for supporting exclusive, continous election results of the 2003 Albuquerque Municipal Election

OTHER MEDIA APPEARANCES
I will interview with Peter Benson on KNKT 107.1 FM Tuesday on "The Connection" between 1:30 and 2 p.m. to talk about the unification election. Please join us. And check out Wednesday's ABQ Tribune for my comments on where city politics is headed in the aftermath of the election.

As always, thanks for tuning in. Please bookmark our site and send it to interested friends.

Let's get the obvious out of the way. Not even the most fervent supporter of the Special Session of the Legislature now underway in Santa Fe is spinning that this stuff could not wait until the regular session in January. That it was a face-saving gesture for Governor Bill is a given. That he lost control of the tax reform commission he appointed and had to scurry to come up with "something special" to fulfill a campaign promise is also taken as established fact among the politicos.

Having said all that Day One of the Not Very Special went pretty well for the Guv. After all the behind-the-scenes back-stabbing before the session, not one Democrat Monday spoke out against the event in a way that drew public attention. Despite pre-session bravado by disgruntled Democrats, Governor Bill did what governors are supposed to do: He held his party together. If he can continue in that vein the rest of the week the event will be a faded memory a year from now. Not that some Dems aren't still unhappy with the big guy. They don't think they were consulted enough, they think they were put on the spot, and like a scene from a bad marriage, "It's all about him!" But those complaining lack the intestinal fortitude to go public. The Republicans unloaded on him as expected ("let's go home, It's too expensive" etc.) but it all made for a ho-hum "what else is new?" day at the Roundhouse.

Bottom Line: The Guv has had a tough month or so with his high speed, highly paid for, and in one instance, who paid for travel. Not to mention the crumbling of the tax reform commission, plus the Legislative grumbling. But, to his credit, there was no embarrassing move to adjourn Monday. That's important. It shows he still has control of his Democrats, at least publicly.

It seems from this corner that Big Bill has a lot in common with his predecessor, Governor Gary. Both wanted to cut personal income taxes, get a Secretary of Education, and poke the Legislature in the eye and get away with it.

New Mexico's most infamous political action committee, ABQPAC, is back in action putting in last minute money to DEFEAT the proposed quarter cent sales tax for public safety on Tuesday's ballot. Northeast Heights Republican voters confirm to "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" that they have received a lit piece this weekend from ABQPAC asking them to say no to the tax hike which would be used for the police, fire and corrections departments, and social service crime prevention programs. ABQPAC was not available for comment, so I cannot tell you how widespread its mailing was.

ABQPAC is the group formed to help Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez pay for his travel expenses. The ensuing controversy over where the money came from and how the Mayor spent it headlined the news for months. The controversy ended with Mayor Marty getting a reprimand form the City Ethics Board. ABQPAC stopped raising funds but still had thousands of dollars on hand. That's apparently the money now being spent.

Word of ABQPAC's renewed involvement in city politics is already pushing some buttons. A pro-tax supporter gave me this explanation for the late ABQPAC move: "Joe, this tax was sponsored on the City Council by Eric Griego, and he's campaigning for it. ABQPAC supports the mayor and some of those guys think Griego is looking at the mayor's job in two years. I don't think they care about defeating the tax as much as they care about Griego getting credit if it passes."

Well, anything ABQPAC touches is sure to be hyper-controversial. Griego HAS been mentioned as a possible mayoral candidate. The mayor said he would vote for the public safety tax, but would not campaign for it. Many of the business people with ABQQPAC would naturally be against the tax, so claiming this is a move against Griego has to be weighed against that. As soon as Tuesday's vote is over attention will slowly turn to the 2005 cycle as the mayoral wanna be's start to surface. One thing appears certain: Because of the ABQPAC scandal that engulfed city hall, there will be no shortage of contenders.

Remember to bookmark our site, forward it to interested friends (joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com) and check back regularly for updates on NM Politics

Only hours now before Mr. and Mrs. Albuquerque go to the polls and the New Mexico political pros I count on are weighing-in with some interesting thoughts. These oracles are longtime veterans of many, many political battles so I pay careful attention to their collective judgment on the weekend before an election. Here is their consensus as the clock ticks down on Campaign 03':

DISTRICT FOUR---City Councilor Brad Winter is in a dogfight with fellow Republican Pat Milligan of Sandia Labs, and the race is now a "toss-up." The pro-business CGA PAC has been relentless in its attacks on Winter, and he has not responded forcefully enough, these pros say, to erase the doubts raised. Winter's likability, the respect he commands among his neighbors and his image as a "nonpolitician" are keeping him alive. But my gurus told me a couple of weeks ago they thought Winter would easily prevail. No more. Even though the CGA attacks on Winter's tax votes blatantly misrepresent his record, Brad may not have committed enough resources to answer them. Still, Winter's service as a high school assistant principal, his athletic record, which CGA scorned, and his generally positive Council record keeps his hopes alive. They say Milligan, a conservative Republican, is seen as an acceptable replacement for Brad, if the negative CGA campaign made the electorate open to removing Winter. No doubt this is a race to watch with us Monday afternoon at 5 and on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM

DISTRICT SIX-- Despite a massive CGA effort for Republican Johanna Tighe, my gurus maintain a liberal will still be elected to the seat being vacated by Hess Yntema. "Instead of looking for the Republican to beat the bunch of liberals running, the upset to look for is Linda Doran edging out favorite Martin Heinrich." Said one senior oracle. My reports say Linda has been working hard for weeks and she has raised a respectable campaign kitty. If Green Bob Anderson steals enough from Martin, who knows?
I hasten to add the guru consensus is that Heinrich pulls it out. One of the elders had this brusque analysis: "Heinrich started early, the mayor singled him out as an enemy and he has raised more money than any other candidate. Any more questions?" No, I don't, Mr. Guru. But I am anxious to see the early results that Lenton Malry will bring in from Highland High and Bandelier Elementary to KANW 89.1 FM early on Election Night.

DISTRICT TWO--This one has been giving my gurus a bit of a headache, but the final consensus is that liberal Debbie O'Malley is in the lead. The oracles cite her endorsement by outgoing Councilor Vince Griego, her activism in the Sawmill area and her support among members of the business community who are hedging their bets and throwing money her way. As in District Six the gurus say they don't think the conservative CGA negative literature will have as much impact as it might in a swing district. My lead guru for this area wrote it this way. "This is a solidly liberal area and a lot of the CGA stuff is being ignored. The CGA candidate, Mary Molina Mescall, ran into controversy over her retirement status as a city employee and her decision to support the widening of Montano bridge." Another of my soothsayers also cited Montano as another reason he is picking O'Malley to take it. "CGA was way too doctrinaire. Mary had to say yes to widening Montano or not get any of the CGA money working for her. If CGA was smart they would have supported her with an anti-bridge position." Interesting. That's why they are gurus.

STREET BONDS--My gurus say the cake is baked and all the bond issues will pass. Here's a sample: "I sense momentum shifting. The anti-street bond campaign peaked early, and the response by the supporters has been swift and equal to the attack. It may be close in some areas,, but they pass." Another guru perspective: "The bond supporters put (mayor) Chavez a bit too much out in front in their TV and risked further division, but it looks like it will work for them." And yet another oracle opinion: "Albuquerque hasn't voted down a bond issue in years. There are goodies in that $52 million package, not just Paseo. It's suprising how much neighborhood support that generates. I think they pass with at least 55 per cent." OK. Any chance the street bonds fail? "If it snows on the westside, and is sunny in the southeast." You gotta love that guru humor.

QUARTER-CENT TAX---My gurus were a bit divided here, but the consensus was for passage. Said one: "No campaign has been mounted against it. The firemen did a TV spot in favor and the northeast heights, where the opposition is most likely, seems pretty calm about it. I don't think it's a walk in the park, but it makes it." Another guru offering: "I still think it could cut either way. In the mid 90's voters rejected a similar tax, but there was a lot more controversy, so I am saying it will win this time." Several gurus said they feel more comfortable in their Council predictions than with the tax issue.
"We just have more to go on with those." Said one.

Thanks to all my contributors. As for me, I predict at least one surprise Election Night. I don't know what it will be, but there's always at least one, which keeps us all coming back for more of La Politica. Remember, our live coverage Election Night starts at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM. See you then!