DENISH
Did you notice that standing ovation at the legislature on opening day for Lt. Guv Diane Denish? And when was the last time you heard of a Light Guv getting to carry her own legislative package? Big Bill rewarded Diane for her past year of loyal service by letting her carry the bills to get tough on the methamphetamine labs popping up all over. By chance, I ran into Diane just before the session began. She was very relaxed and at ease. Obviously the Hobbs native has not adopted the hyper-active ways of Big Bill, and it suits her just fine. Being the political agitator I am, I even brought up the name of her archrival, AG Patricia Madrid. But she didn't even blink. In fact, she gave a faint smile.

And why not? Diane has been on a bit of a roll this past year. She has worked hard to get where she is in politics (several losses) and has not taken anything for granted. She crammed for her positions as presiding officer of the state senate and has drawn solid reviews for her knowledge and style. She's also presiding over a children's cabinet group, has had no negative press and her candidate for president, Senator Kerry, is coming off of a big win in Iowa.

Her political soft spot is support among Hispanic Dems. She is still paying the price for hard-hitting ads she did against former Secretary of State Stephanie Gonzales when they both sought the LT. Gov. nomination in the 90's, and the aforementioned Madrid can always be counted on to keep the heat turned up.

Lt. Guv's can be a thorn in the side of Guv's. Remember Casey Luna under Bruce King? But Denish is taking the road well-traveled by Walter Bradley under Governor Gary. Like him, her personality is quite different than the governor she serves, and she also has Walter's same business-like approach. Bradley's dream of getting the top job went unfulfilled. That's one similarity Diane definitely does not want to share with her predecessor. Her time will come, but for now this 'lady in waiting' is fine with being a picture of patience.

BLOTZ BIDS GOOD BYE

By the way, for all you media guys and gals looking to join your many colleagues in the warm embrace of Big Bill, there's an opening. Tim Blotz, who is helping out Denish with her PR, is leaving. Blotz, a former channel 7 anchor, will be back before the TV cameras at at FOX affiliate in Minnesota. Minnesota, Tim? Take some hot green chile. Meanwhile, the search for Blotz's' replacement is on.

WE'RE IN FARMINGTON AND WE'RE SEMI-LIBERAL!

The conservative Farmington Daily Times wrestles with the state's Medicaid crisis, and comes to some suprising conclusions in this Daily Times editorial.

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President Bush sets down in Airforce One in Roswell today just as a new round of infighting breaks out in the state Republican party. The GOP has been torn asunder by an ongoing battle between allies of former state chair John Dendahl and current chair Ramsay Gorham, who ousted Dendahl. Now word comes to us that Gorham and Bernalillo County Republican Party Chair and Bush NM finance chair, Ken Zangara, are at odds with Republican National Committee (RNC) operative Rich Beeson, who is heading up the Bush campaign in the Southwest.

Sources say the peace pact that was brokered this month between Gorham and the RNC calling for the president's re-election effort here to be placed under the umbrella of the county party and Zangara is in danger of coming undone. The crowning blow is that Beeson, who Gorham sees as an ally of her archrival Dendahl, has placed a political operative for the Bush campaign in the law offices of Dendahlite ringleader Mickey Barnett. Barnett is GOP National Committeeman from NM and has close ties to the RNC. Gorham and Zangara also reportedly complain that voter information needed to launch the re-elect has not been forthcoming from the national party and that Gorham was excluded from a conference call with the Bush campaign while Dendahl was included. Gorham and Zangara are saying Beeson is making an end run around them, despite the compromise deal that called for Zangara to run the show.

"Does the RNC plan on running the campaign out of Mickey's law office?" pondered one insider. "That's not the deal and if it continues we may have a resumption of the war over the President's campaign."

Also, the infighting may be holding up an announcement on who will serve as executive director of the Bush effort here, a key role as money and personnel are pumped into the state to capture New Mexico's precious five electoral votes that Bush lost to Al Gore in 2000 by under 400 votes. One of the names being bandied about for the post is Kathy Leyendecker, a longtime GOP operative with ties to Senator Domenici. Others are also being mentioned. Leyendecker was considering a run against Dem State Rep. Al Park, but insiders now say those plans are off.

Ramsay's bad blood with Beeson goes back to when she took over and asked RNC boss Ed Gillespie to fire Beeson after Beeson, according to Gorham allies, played a heavy-hand with her. So while peace was at hand just a short week ago, today it appears the GOP is going to have to re-light the peace pipe and try again. If not, the ongoing turmoil can only threaten Bush's already tenuous hold on a state that could spell all the difference come November. Welcome to the Land of Disenchantment, Mr. President.


PRC: IT'S A MANIA

This Race for the Public Regulation Commission (PRC) seat up North reminds me of the internet stock bubble; everyone wants in. No sooner did I relay the news that Johnny Montoya, husband of State Rep. Rhonda King, will be diving into the pack, came word of yet another Dem contender. Carlos Fierro, a former analyst to the leadership in the NM House, and most recently senior counsel to Senator John McCain on the US Senate Commerce Committee, is also being tempted by the 90k a year job. Candidate Ben Ray Lujan, son of the House Speaker, earlier told me (stories below) that he was trying to convince the other Hispanics to bow out so the nomination would not be tossed to an Anglo contender like Bob Perls. Ever since, Hispanic candidates are coming out of the woodwork. Ben Ray better have a sit-down with dad.

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That stemwinder Governor Bill laid on the Roundhouse Tuesday had the politicos reaching for the Rolaids. Digesting the paper whopper will take more than the thirty days the lawmakers are scheduled to meet. It reminded me of the old saying about Sinatra: "It's Frank's world, we just live in it." Well, substitute "Bill" for Frank and you get the idea.

But the Big Fella didn't do himself much harm in his 'State of the State.' He threw everything at them but the kitchen sink, ensuring he will get a couple of big goodies and leaving the rest for next time around. The idea is apparently to show the Guv continuously on the move, a "doer." Well, he can slow down now, I think we get it.

No one seriously expects the complete agenda to be adopted, maybe not even half. Bill picked the low lying fruit early in the speech--DWI reform--which should easily pass. (Is the liquor lobby that powerful that we have to do piecemeal DWI reform every single year?) Coming noticeably late in the speech was the most pressing problem facing the state: exploding Medicaid costs. Bill threw in the towel on any major reform of the entitlement when he declared he would NOT raise eligibility requirements. It was a clear gift to the liberal wing (the nominating wing) of his Democratic Party.

My sense of this legislature hasn't changed. Outside of Max Coll and a few others, the Guv has a pretty clear playing field. This being an election year he doesn't want to fight too much with them, and they fear his retribution on the campaign trail if they push him too hard. Expect a pretty smooth session, barring any unexpected moves from the Fourth Floor. True fireworks will be postponed until next year.

LOOKING FOR A 'HIGH-WAGE' JOB? COME ON IN

Yet another contender has joined the race for the Public Regulation Commission (PRC) seat being vacated by Jerome Block. And this one has some interesting political shadings. Johnny Montoya, husband of State Rep. Rhonda King, has thrown his hat into the ring. He joins Ben Ray Lujan, son of state House Speaker Ben Lujan, and other possible Dem candidates Art Rodarte of Espanola and ABQ City Councilor Miguel Gomez. Also vying for the 90k a year job, regulating the state's utilities, is former State Rep. Bob Perls and political unknown Keith Dodson. Montoya is VP for marketing at the Del Norte Credit Union in Los Alamos. He also worked 12 years with the Rick Johnson ad agency in ABQ.

Ben Ray Lujan told me that he would work to clear the field of other Hispanic candidates because they would divide the vote and hand the nomination to Perls. But Montoya says he's not going anywhere and says Ben Ray is being a bit presumptuous. He says his experience far outranks that of Ben Ray. Of note is Rep. King's break with the Speaker Lujan in the recent special session over the road tax bill pushed by Big Bill. She was one of the few Dems to vote no. Also, Montoya is a second cousin of Attorney General Patricia Madrid who has been flexing her muscles in opposition to the Guv. To top it off, Montoya says he has asked legendary former Guv Bruce King for some campaign advice. Oh, the tangled web of La Politica!

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Senator Kerry's blow-out victory in Iowa puts New Mexico at ground zero for the 2004 race for president. Late last night politicos statewide were scrambling to interpret the results and prepare for the coming free-for all in New Hampshire, and then February 3 in New Mexico and six other states. More on that in a minute, but first the breaking news.

Speaking to me from Des Moines last night Kerry NM campaign manager Geri Prado reported Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, has scheduled a visit here January 29 and 30. Geri, reporting from outside a caucus site, had just nailed down the details. She also told me Senator Kerry will be here at least once before the February 3 caucus. She said the first thing on her wish list from the national campaign is to bring the hundreds of veterans' groups who have piled into Iowa and New Hampshire into New Mexico.

Now, the key points made by my expert analysts from across New Mexico

---Gephardt supporters here need a home. Their man is gone. He has solid union support and many Hispanic allies, especially in the ABQ South Valley. He got 7 percent in the recent Journal poll. The pundits say the Gephardt crowd would find a natural home with Kerry. "Senator Kennedy could make the difference in that regard." Said the Green Party's Steve Cabiedes. "The Kennedy legacy in New Mexico is immense with Hispanics and unions like him to." Interestingly, Kennedy's son, Congressman Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island, supported Gephardt and was here for him at a fundraising event. Of course, the big decision on who to support now is in the hands of Gephardt himself.

----Dean was almost decapitated in Iowa, but Francisco Castillo, Dean NM campaign manager, put the best face he could on the wipe-out. "This makes New Mexico all the more important. We still plan on winning here. We are organized and we are going to fight," he declared. The politicos I talked to agreed with Castillo that Iowa puts our state fron and center in the 2004 Dem prez campaign, but they were less optimistic about Dr. Dean's future. "New Hampshire may be a must-win for him now," one told me. "Even though he has the money to go forward, so will Kerry and Edwards after last night."


---Senator Edwards's strong, suprise second place showing needs to generate "big mo" and soon. His chief supporter here, Attorney Geneal Patsy Madrid, has helped raise a lot of money, but in the Journal poll he was at four percent and his organization here is skimpy. One pundit said Edwards needs to make a play in southern New Mexico. Pollster Harry Pavlides told me: "Edwards will play well down there. He has appeal in the small towns. That's where I would look for votes." (Madrid's longtime political rival, Light Guv Diane Denish, is a key supporter of Kerry's)

---Predicting what will happen here is practially impossible, said pollster Brian Sanderoff speaking from his North Valley home where he was glued to the TV set. "Joe, this is one of the most volatile and fluid races we will ever see." Sanderoff said New Hampshire will create a another set of circumstances that will impact New Mexico. He said where Gephardt supporters go is what ultimately will be remembered about the Iowa caucuses three months from now.

---Republican Bruce Donisthorpe, manning the late-night election watch and preparing to see President Bush speak Thursday in Roswell, phoned in with the hope that the positive campaigns conducted by Kerry and Edwards could mean "negative" TV may finally be hitting the wall in terms of impact. Let's hope so.

---Some 22,000 absentee ballots have been requested so far by NM Dems, but only a couple of thousand have been returned. Why so few? Back to Sanderoff for analysis: "Most of those ballots will come in, but I think many voters have waited to see the results of the Iowa vote before marking the ballots." That could be good news for Kerry and Edwards.

---Big money is coming. Pollster Pavlides chimed in that you can "expect huge money" to flood into the state--starting today. "Why wait?" He asked. Why, indeed.

---What about General Clark? He's on the air with new TV here and ready to party. Can he spoil Kerry in New Hampshire? On the airwaves here he's in full battle mode, but needs the momentum in New Hampshire to perk up the ground troops in New Mexico and excite the electorate.

Thanks to all my contributors to today's report. It was a wild night alright, and there's more to come. It's why we all love politics. It doesn't always deliver the unexpected, but when it does it's political junkie heaven.

READ MORE OF MY ANALYSIS IN TODAY'S TRIBUNE
ABQ TRIB

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Forget about Medicaid, capital outlay, and even the state budget. The real burning question on the minds of everyone at the Roundhouse and beyond on this eve of Legislature 04' is this: Will this be the last legislative session of State Senate Majority Leader and New Mexico political legend Manny Aragon? The fact that I am writing this shows that the question could actually be answered yes. Friends of the legislative powerhouse, who has nearly 30 years in the upper chamber, say the presidency of Highlands University, a position Manny has been mentioned for in years past, this time truly beckons.

One deep insider put it to me this way: "Joe, several things are in play. Manny's length of service, health considerations, the changes in his senate district, the prestige of the presidency, and the financial benefits of leaving. All these factors together spell a good possibility that this could be his last year."

For many of us in politics a senate without Aragon is unimaginable. New guys, like Rep. Al Park, were toddlers when Manny was running his first senate race. He has cast a huge shadow across all of state government. It is not overstatement to say he has been one of the most, if not the most, powerful legislator in the history of our state.

So let's take our insider's points one by one and see if they add up to the ending of a historical senate career.

Length of service---After thirty years of anything, you get tired, and perhaps a bit bored and distracted. What hills are there left to climb, what legislation to pass or consider that you have not already studied a hundred times? And, do you have all that much left to give?


Health considerations---Aragon has never been a health nut. He is now about 56 and the wear and tear of the legislature is even tough on the younger guys. Certainly, a move to the placid world of academia could be a boon to one's physical and mental health.

Changes in his senate district---Manny won with only 55% last time, not much by historical standards, but he is a likely winner again this time, if he runs. But, according to our sources, Manny gave up some of the Democrats in his district during the 2000 reapportionment to make things work out in other Democratic districts. Was he thinking ahead to retirement then? Filing date for the legislators is mid-March.

The prestige of the Highlands presidency---This would be a prestigious way for Aragon to cap off his lengthy career. The university in Las Vegas is gearing itself to Hispanics and the presidency would give Aragon a golden opportunity to help the next generation, something even the cynics agree is close to his heart.

Financial benefits---The Highlands job would be big bucks. Maybe near the 150K a year level. Under the state retirement system, you retire with 80 percent of the average pay you received for your three highest paid years. That would mean an Aragon retirement payday of well over 100k a year, nothing to sneeze at.

So there you have it. A lot of good reasons why the South Valley political master could finally bow out. What would keep him in? That's easy. Power. Even after being ousted as Senate Pro Tem, as majority leader he still wields the conductors baton. Witness his shepherding of Big Bill's major legislation. Giving up that kind of power cannot be easy. But, like New Mexico, Manny Aragon is at a crossroads. New Mexico enters the new century with a new governor determined to bring the state up to speed. The work load is going to get even heavier. Aragon could get a second wind and decide to continue. If he does leave? His presence would leave a power void, but not for long. As one wall leaner put it: "If Manny retires, he will give life to a whole new generation of leaders waiting their turn."

EYE ON IOWA

This is the big day for prez politics with the Iowa caucuses getting underway at 5:30 our time. Veteran anchorman Dick Knipfing and I will sit down together at 4:20 p.m. today on KRQE-TV to talk about tonight's big event and the February 3 NM prez caucuses. Please join us for the latest, and join me again Tuesday right here for more on the Iowa results and what they may mean here. Read on for my analysis of the Journal poll released over the weekend.

JOURNAL PREZ POLL; DEAN LEADS CLARK BY TWO; KUCINICH SUPRISES;MY EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS RIGHT HERE

Kucinich
The first poll ranking the candidates in the February 3 NM Presidential caucuses mimics the national numbers with Howard Dean narrowly leading General Wesley Clark. Dean gets 18 per cent, Clark 16 percent. If there is any surprise in the poll, besides Clark being a bit higher than expected, it's Dennis Kucinich. The Ohio Congressman comes in with 6 percent, better than he does elsewhere, and enough to outpoll Senator John Edwards who received only 4 percent. Senators Kerry and Lieberman each polled eight percent.

Kucinich's most recent visit to the state came Saturday when he stopped off in Farmington to court Navajo voters. The fiery, ultra-liberal contender also did a mailer recently to likely Democratic voters which apparently boosted his numbers here. Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt has also been a heavy mailer. He came in with 7 percent. Only Clark and Dean have done paid TV in the state. NM Pollster Harry Pavlides said he felt Dean, who went off the air here for several weeks, and just came back on this week, "should have gotten back on the air sooner." Pollster Brian Sanderoff, who conducted the Journal poll, attributed Clark's rise to his heavy TV buy in recent weeks.

Kucinich's move is important because it may be acting as a drag on front-runner Dean. Kucinich is rounding up progressive Democratic votes found in large numbers around the University of New Mexico and in Santa Fe and Taos counties. He made a play for Greens to switch registration for the caucuses so they could vote for him. But Green registration has only dropped a couple of hundred votes since he and Green party chief David Bacon made that plea, so it appears Kucinich is getting his main support from the liberal Democratic bastions mentioned above.

Iowa and New Hampshire and who gets the 'big mo" out of there--Dean, Clark or another candidate, now becomes critical to the New Mexico outcome. Dean has the most extensive ground organization here, and in a separate poll Sanderoff did of Democratic Party "activists," Dean widens his lead by a couple of points over Clark. A candidate needs at least 15 percent of the statewide vote or 15 percent in a congressional district to win any delegates to the national nominating convention. In that regard, Kucinich has a long way to go, but again, by eating into Dean's liberal base, he sets himself up as a spoiler, either to hand the state to Clark or dampen Dean's ultimate delegate count.

The undecided in the poll is a big 34 percent, which indicates that a lot of Democrats will not be voting in the first-ever caucuses here. Sanderoff points out that a low turn-out benefits Dean. I would add that it also benefits Kucinich whose supporters have no less fervor for their man than do Dr. Dean's.

The Journal poll was conducted January 12-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. There will be one more poll from the newspaper before the February 3 vote. The Zogby tracking poll kicks in with daily prez results towards the end of the month. And, of course, we'll have all the action right here.

LATE BREAKING: UDALL DRAWS REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER

The Farmington Daily Times hits with the exclusive news of one of their native sons taking on Democratic Congressman Tom Udall:

By Laura Banish/The Daily TImes

FARMINGTON — Moving up the political ladder quickly, San Juan County District Attorney Greg Tucker has his eye on a new prize: The District 3 slot in the U.S. House of Representatives.The 31-year-old Republican obtained his law degree in May 1999, passed the bar exam in July 1999, was sworn in as a practicing attorney in October 1999 and elected District Attorney November 2000. Nearly at the end of his four-year term, Tucker announced Saturday he is ready to take the next step.

“I’ve always been interested in the U.S. House of Representatives for northern New Mexico. I’ve been thinking about it for the last couple of months. Now, it’s a really good time to enter the race,” Tucker said.

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