The NM GOP put the Rory Ogle saga behind it Saturday morning as they named agricultural banker Jimmie Hall as the candidate to replace the embattled Ogle on the November ballot. Hall defeated Nick Maniatis, an associate in the lobbying firm of GOP National Committeeman Mickey Barnett, on a 75-41 vote.

"This was another victory for the (ex-GOP chair) Ramsay Gorham faction," analyzed one R at the meeting. He was referring to the defeat of Barnett for the GOP National Committeeman's post by ex-State Rep George Buffett earlier this year. Gorham was ousted from her chairmanship by loyalists of Barnett and ex-GOP chair John Dendhal, but since have suffered the Barnett defeat and now this one.

Ogle was embroiled in controversy when he was arrested in July on charges of beating his wife, Anita, who then threatened to run against him for the ABQ NE heights seat Ogle was elected to in 2002. But Anita's challenge fizzled after Ogle agreed to withdrew as a candidate for re-election under pressure from GOP Leaders.

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32,000 New Mexicans saw the sitting president of the United States in a single day Thursday, the most ever, and George Bush did not let them down. Showing the vigor and connection that was missing from his previous NM visits, Bush brought big time Prez politics to the Land of Enchantment in a three city swing that went off like clockwork, dominated the media and showed the power of incumbency.

The seemingly asleep Bush campaign here did good. They worked the phones hard and packed the venues in Albuquerque and Farmington and did pretty well in Las Cruces too. But it was Bush, who on his last visit had trouble remembering where he was, who brought the events the star power they needed to excite his Republican base and perhaps pick up some swing voters.

The Prez had just come from some r&r in Crawford, TX and it showed. He looked rested, vibrant and fully engaged. The Republican crowds, of course, responded with a frenzy which came over well on television where the Bush visit was covered extensively and favorably. (Six minutes on 7 & 13 at 10 p.m.)

My friend, political science professor Gil St. Clair, said the Prez's visit would rally the GOP base and would not do much with other voters. But I have to part company with Gil on this one. It no doubt did that, but Bush's moderate tone, determination and buoyant manner had to have an impact on those admittedly few voters still on the fence. The polls to come will tell the tale.

BOUNCY BUSH

The Bush trip this time had an energetic flavor that had the effect of washing away, at least momentarily, the effect of all the polls showing him behind Kerry here. The chink in the armor may have been Las Cruces where he drew 12,000, a bit short of the Pan Am capacity and a city where President Clinton drew 25,000 during a memorable 1996 stop.

Dm VP contender Edwards tried to slow Bush's momentum with a campaign stop in Cruces that drew 3,000. But it didn't because Edwards is not the Prez candidate and he seemed a bit small as he appeared on the tube next to the Prez and his giant rallies.

It was a critical visit for the Bushies who need to make the turn here soon or move on. With their leader in peak form, they received some fresh ammo Thursday to take back to the battlefield in our battleground state.

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The usual lines have been drawn in the latest Republican showdown. In one corner are the advocates of ex-GOP Chair Dendahl and soon-to-be ex-GOP National Committeman Mickey Barnett. In the other are the backers of ex-GOP Chair Gorham.
Both sides have a favorite candidate to replace ABQ GOP NE Heights State Rep. Rory Ogle on the ballot. The decision will be made at a GOP central committee meeting Saturday.

The frontrunners to replace Ogle, who resigned as a candidate after wife-beating charges, are Jimmy Hall, a retired agricultural banker and Nick Maniatis, an associate in Barnett's lobbying firm. Political newcomer David Robbins and Rory Ogle's father, John Ogle, are also going for the seat. The candidacy of Anita Ogle, wife of Rory, has gone nowhere since she threatened to run against her husband just before he decided to throw in the towel.

Insiders say Hall could have an edge because the members of the central committee are mostly allies of Gorham and Hall is apparently their favored fellow. There is no Dem on the ballot in he solid R district.

GORHAM MOVE, BUT NOT IN POLITICS

Speaking of Ramsay Gorham, her North Valley house is on the market for $1.5 million. She and her husband Frank Gorham, former Bernalillo County GOP chair, spend a lot of time in her home state of North Carolina these days, but are expected to maintain a NM residence. Since resigning under pressure from the Dendahlites earlier this year, Ramsay has totally withdrawn from the political arena.

AN ALL DAY PREZ PARTY

Big crowds are expected as President Bush makes a three city sweep of our state today. It's wheels down in Las Cruces this morning where a crowd of up to 14,000 is expected. Next, it's on to Farmington where the Prez is expected to draw a double digit audience and then on to the ABQ Convention Center where planners say 10,000 will be on had for W. Soon after his visit, Republicans will begin to head for New York for their national convention. They'll get a little flavor of that today as former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani will travel with the Bush caravan. We'll have the analysis on the big trip tomorrow.

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The beginning of what will be a multimillion dollar wave of media in the battle for NM's ABQ Congressional seat kicked off this week with GOP Rep. Heather Wilson unveiling the first TV spot from any of the Congressional campaigns. She touts her record on job creation and makes a direct play for the thousands of voters whose livelihoods depend on the federal defense establishment.

"It's a safe spot. She is positioning herself as someone who brings home the bacon to the district. She stays away from the hot-button issues such as the Iraq war, her support for Bush or prescription drugs,” analyzed one veteran of Congressional politics.

Wilson's job this go around is not to get too entangled with Bush and his policies, which according to polls, are not serving him all that well in the moderate ABQ district.

Here's the money line from the Wilson thirty second ad: "Heather fought to protect Kirtland Air Force Base by opposing the plan to close more military bases." She might as well have thrown in Sandia Labs too, and the thousands of jobs there. It's what has kept the ABQ seat in the Republican column for over thirty years.

Democrat Richard Romero's campaign, sitting on over half a million in cash, is also expected to hit the airwaves in the coming days. A spokeswoman slammed the new Heather ad saying "Governor Richardson deserves the credit for creating jobs in New Mexico, not Heather Wilson.”

But the spot, produced by the MBGH Agency out of Washington, the same outfit that ran Heather’s winning media campaign against State Senator Romero two years ago, does not give much of an opening to her opponent. It says she supported a job creation program (which one is not mentioned) and lists on screen various transportation projects in the ABQ area that she supported.

INSIDE THE MESSAGE

Some analysts said the spot also sends the message that Wilson, seeking her fourth, two year term, has the clout that New Mexicans like in their Washington Reps. "She is emphasizing what Senator Domenici has made a reputation on--bringing money into the district," said one.

Another observed commented: "Romero's campaign is centered on showing Wilson to be a lapdog of the Bush administration and the far-right leadership in the U.S. House. But she is going to make them work to prove it and play safe until the numbers tell her she has to do it differently. Judging by this spot I think their polling is showing her with a comfortable edge. There is nothing edgy or risky about it,” said our informed politico.

Political junkies may know of MBGH agency chief Mike Murphy. He ran the McCain for Prez campaign in 2000 and many other R efforts. He has been a regular on the cable news-talk circuit and is also an advisor to California Governor Schwarzenegger.

I asked several politicos if Heather was going on earlier than usual and if that might say she is not as comfortable as the spot would have it appear. "Not really. Remember, early voting starts October 2. I don’t think they moved up the schedule. With just five weeks until the vote, you have to move. If anything, Romero should have moved up his schedule," answered one.

It won't just be the Wilson and Romero campaigns flooding the tube in the days ahead. Those so-called "527" groups, not directly connected to either campaign, can be expected to join the fray next month backed by a variety of special interests and their big bucks.

PREZ POLL: STILL KERRY

Another major NM Prez poll shows Kerry ahead of the Prez here and outside the polls margin of error. The Zogby interactive poll--it is internet based--has it Kerry 49.7%, Bush 44.1% Nader 0.7% and "other" at 4.4%. That other is mainly Libertarian hopeful Michael Badnarik who advertised heavily here in August. A mere 1% in the Zogby survey call themselves undecided.

As in last weeks ARG survey, the Prez is suffering mightily from his lack of Dem support. Like ARG, Zogby says W is only getting 11% of the state's majority party voters. Also, the Zogby poll reveals a lot of New Mexicans are pretty sour about the way things are going in the country. Just 41.7% said things are moving in the right direction while 56.7% said things were going the wrong way. Clearly, the Prez, who will vsit NM Thursday, has his work cut out for him in persuading this lean-Kerry state.

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Riding high in April, shot down in May. So the song says, but in the case of Big Bill make that shot down in August. There has been a perceptible change in the standing of the Guv in the past couple of weeks brought about by a confluence of events that has given his opponents their first ray of hope since the Big Guy took over 20 months ago.

"Some of the stuff seems to be sticking for a change," a D analyst assessed. "The constant stream of controversy over people getting contracts, or not getting contracts, based on what they've given the Governor's campaign, has been like a drumbeat. If nothing else, I think it has brought some Republicans who were supporting him back to the opposition camp."

We are not privy to the latest approval numbers for Big Bill--he constantly polls--but we can assume that his peak popularity years have been reached and holding his own at lofty levels in the low 60's is now job one. But the barrage of late has been of such intensity that a slip into less rarefied air is not out of the question, and even likely.

"When you have (House GOP leader) Ted Hobbs calling the governor an emperor in public it shows you the Republicans are sensing some weakness and some opportunity," said our watchful D.

Hobbs' comment came in the wake of Big Bill's refusal (and PR goof) to not go to the Legislature to get approval for the purchase of a state airplane. Also piling on was Big Bill nemesis-in-chief, Attorney General Patsy Madrid, who said the Guv's planned purchase was illegal, setting the stage for perhaps a more serious showdown between the two foes.

Meantime, the campaign money controversy brought an ominous warning from veteran "Inside the Capitol" columnist Jay Miller that the Guv ought to watch his back because "money for contracts" scandals took their toll during the Governor Anaya and Apodaca administrations.

LITTLE PATSY VS. BIG BILL?

Madrid's ambitions, like Big Bill's, know no bounds, and with her latest volley against the Fourth Floor speculation has heated up in La Politica that it's not out of the question that Madrid could challenge the Guv for the nomination in 2006.

"She cannot rule it out because (Lt. Gov) Diane Denish is waiting in the wings to take over. Whether Bill stays here or not, Madrid has to position herself for the future. It seems she is taking the lead in providing shelter for Bill's opponents. It has a campaign feel to it," offered another Dem insider.

The Guv has also peaked on the media front for the time being with the newspapers, as noted above, taking aim at his massive fundraising efforts and what they mean in terms of government action. Also, several of the ABQ TV stations are on the defensive in their coverage of the Big Guy after taking hits for allowing their news anchors to deliver glowing praise of him at a public event.

Then there is the Vice-President thing. He didn't get it, wasn't expected to really, but with Big Bill's path to national prominence now a bit unclear, his rivals may see a chance to pin him down in the messy politics of New Mexico.

Actually, it all has a very normal air to it--a governor entangled in the provincial concerns of his state. But the first two years of this administration has been such a love-in, with Big Bill boosters touting him for the Presidency, that the return to normalcy is somewhat shocking.

"We are in reality-mode now," noted one Santa Fe wall-leaner. "The ship is returning to Earth." Trouble is the welcoming committee is being formed by Patsy Madrid and Ted Hobbs and others behind-the-scenes waiting their turn.

BUSH CHASING, NM STYLE

The Kerry-Edwards campaign is going to try to slow any momentum the Prez makes here during a daylong visit Thursday by putting Edwards in Las Cruces the same day. The VP candidate will hold a public rally and aim his guns at those controversial 'swift boat' ads questioning Kerry's service in Vietnam. NM has a lot of veterans and recent polls show those spots have impacted Kerry's veterans' numbers.

Why Cruces? Because Edwards will be able to hit the state's two major TV markets with just one stop. El Paso TV, which serves Dona Ana County, will beam it there. And ABQ TV will pick him up for the rest of the state as balance to the Bush visit. Modern Prez politics is all about maximizing time and opportunity.

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"It couldn't be soon enough," commented one NM GOP campaign veteran upon hearing the news that the Prez will hit three NM cities in a day long tour this Thursday making for Bush's second visit to our state this month.

"We know we are behind here and there is only so much time to turn it around. Kerry's train trip thru the state may have cemented a big chunk of vote for him. Hopefully, this trip by Bush will at least move some of them to the undecided column," offered our R.

His concern is heightened by the latest American Research Group (ARG) survey of the state taken Aug. 17-19 showing the Massachusetts Senator with a healthy 7 point lead over the Prez. (49% to 42%) That's the same margin ARG had the race in an early July poll, giving rise to fear among the Bushies that New Mexico is locking down for Kerry.

"We have a shot here. But come mid-September if Kerry is still showing his kind of lead, I expect a decision to be made on just how much attention will be devoted here, considering the importance of larger battleground states," said our R.

The ARG polled 600 NM voters by telephone and has a margin of error of four points, putting Kerry well outside that margin. The poll is highly-respected and does not draw the controversy that the Zogby "interactive" poll does, although that internet based survey has also shown the Prez consistently behind here, as do the polls for the campaign themselves, according to informed and reliable sources.

BUSH'S NM PROBLEM

Bush's big NM problem remains the Democrats. According to ARG, he has 83% support among R’s, but only 11% support from the majority party D's. As we have reported, Prez pros say Bush needs to get that up to at least 25% if he is to take the state.

A Rasmussen poll taken about the same time as ARG has the race tied, but it was commissioned by the Libertarian candidate for Prez who picked up five percent in the survey. ARG does not have the Lib contender on its ballot selection, but did include Nader who got just two percent in NM, not yet enough to seriously wound Kerry.

The stop in Las Cruces is particularly important as Dona Ana County, while leaning D, could have a lower turnout than other urban areas, pumping up the importance of the R's who turn out. Gore beat Bush by five percent, or about 2650 votes there in 2000. The Farmington stop is a pure "nail down the base" move as San Juan County remains heavy R. The Prez smashed Gore by 27% there in 00,’ or by nearly ten thousand votes.

The stop in ABQ, like the one in Dona Ana, is a swing vote move, with the vote in the areas outside of the city limits still seen as vital and laden with possibility. Bush was beaten by Gore by about 4,000 votes four years ago in Bernalillo and needs to at least tie here and probably win it if he is to get our five electoral votes, say our Prez pros.

"This is a good playbook. With Bush here for a full day he demonstrates his seriousness about capturing the state. His earlier stops have been short hops that did not give him the exposure he needed," observed our insider R analyst.

A TRIPLE PLAY PLAN

Bush's visit will also come at a time when NM voters will see up-close those controversial swiftboat ads knocking Kerry’s service in Vietnam. The ads will start airing here this week. The visit, the ads, and then the Republican convention in early September may well tell the tale of NM Campaign 04'. If Bush cannot move it with that triple play, Kerry might get the luxury of nailing down this swing state early and moving on.

Again, in future polls watch that D number. That's the key. It's essential the Prez win over moderate D's or else he is dead money. It will be interesting to see from his speeches in ABQ and Cruces Thursday how he will go about getting the job done.

SPONSOR NEWS: ENTERPRISE RENT-A CAR

Enterprise Car Sales opened its first New Mexico location this week at 9300 Coors Blvd. NW near Paseo Del Norte in ABQ.

A division of Enterprise Rent-A-Car, the company uses the no-haggle method of selling cars, which it says it pioneered in 1962. This new location brings the number of the Enterprise cars sales branches to 155.

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