Times are pretty good in New Mexico. And they've been that way for quite a while. Despite the continued predictions of a crisis to come, the money continues to flow into state coffers at record levels, thanks to the oil and gas industry. Still, there's another canary in the mine chirping a warning. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities claims the NM Legislative Finance Committee has it right and that the state may be headed for a deficit in fiscal 2007. The center, which says it pushes issues of importance to lower income families, assigns blame to Big Bill's tax cuts for the wealthy, among other things, for the coming problems which they warn could hit a year after a new Guv is elected in 06.'

State officials expect a 10% budget surplus this fiscal year and oil and gas prices remain in the stratosphere, helping the good times roll. The political implications of a severe price drop are obvious. Not that NM Republicans would ever hope for such a thing. Would they?

MORE MAYORAL MUSINGS

Some reaction and feedback worthy of note to our Wednesday blog analyzing the 05' ABQ mayor race. The polling junkies tell me the GOP poll we quoted with Mayor Marty getting roughly half the vote and GOP City Council Prez Brad Winter garnering 25% was likely a two man poll. They say it looked forward to a possible run-off between the pair after the initial round of balloting October 4 which will include other candidates. It assumes they will be the top two vote getters but neither will hit the magic 40% mark to avoid the run-off. Assuming a two man poll, the Chavez number of 50% is right on the borderline of vulnerability. It's where Bush was with Kerry. A number below 50% signals vulnerability.

All of this reminds me of the last ABQ mayoral run-off back in 93' when Chavez defeated "soft R' Dave Cargo. Cargo, like Winter, did not appeal to the bedrock GOP conservatives who did not come out in force. Marty got in with a victory of less than 600 votes. If the GOP poll we reported has it right, it shows another tight race is possible as an incumbent's numbers are not likely to rise much in the campaign as he is already well-known to the public. The challenge could be for Dem Chavez to hold on to his appeal to GOP voters. For Winter, the challenge would be to move the entire GOP, including the right-wing, behind his candidacy.

POST HASTE?

Another Alligator reacting to the mayoral action commented: "I would argue that it is WAY to early to be sending out direct mail. No one voting in October is going to remember something from their mail box in May." Good point. But Chavez and company may have been trying to scare a candidate out of the race. And, more important, if you have a half-mil to spend in four months, you might as well start spending, early or otherwise. One other thing. Absentee voting will start in early September, moving up the timetable for grabbing voters.

POWER AND MONEY

Big Bill has the power, but he doesn't have the money. At least not when it comes to his official salary. The Guv, according to a recent report, actually ranks quite far down the wage scale. The highest paid guy in state government now pulls down north of $200 grand, while Big Bill checks in with a yearly take of $110k. But somehow we don't think he’s going hungry. Not with $3 million in his re-elect account, free plane rides everhwere, a darn good cooking staff at the mansion, and plenty of fundraisers to go to that cost a grand a pop. What else could a guy ask for? More.

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Mayor Marty
Launching a preemptive strike against possible wannabe mayors themselves set to pull the trigger, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez beat them to the punch by mailing two, full-color brochures to thousands of Westsiders and Republicans touting his "leadership" and results." The mailer late last week set the stage for Chavez to begin collecting the nearly 6,000 petition signatures he and other hopefuls will need to secure a place on the October 4 ballot. Today is the first day to pick up petitions at the city clerk's office. Candidates will have until the end of July to gather the needed signatures.

"Chavez fired a shot across the bow of (City Council Prez) Brad Winter and others eyeing the race. The mailer is snappy, expensive and lets the opposition know that he has come to play. The opponents are going to have to meet a high standard and Chavez has shown he plans on being the one setting the standard," commented an Alligator with lengthy experience in ABQ politics.

Another neutral observer provided this insight. "There has been excitement about Winter getting in the race because he is the sole Republican. But don't be misled. Chavez is the clear frontrunner who can spend over $100 thousand a month between now and October. He's also the only candidate who has run and won this thing. The onus is on the challengers to show they can run a professional campaign. Chavez has shown he can. Can his foes?" Asked our insider.

Judy Espinosa is set to enter the fray this weekend. She will join ABQ City Councilor Eric Griego, but their supporters fear the two liberal Dems will cancel each other out leaving Chavez and Winter in a run-off a month after the initial balloting. If no candidate gets the magic 40%, the top two go to a run-off.

SANTULLO KNOWS; ASK SANTULLO
Mike Santullo
Veteran New Mexico politico and talk-radio pioneer Mike "Fastest Mouth In the West" Santullo who ran for mayor in 1974 and went on to serve Mayor Ken Schultz as communications director had further analysis.

"If it's Marty and Brad in the race it could be tough for either to get to 40%. Winter will have a big base of Republicans. Marty has his equally big base. But the mayor is still the man. Winter has much to prove. A campaign that is not executed with polish and decisiveness could cause him to fade quickly and Chavez conceivably could take it in the first round. I see Griego, Espinosa and company trying to beat up Marty and take him down to third, but I don't see it as likely," commented Santullo, 58, and in the game now for 34 years.

Republicans did a poll on the mayor's race recently and my deep insiders and very reliable sources tell me that Winter polled about 25% and Mayor Marty near the 50% mark. The R's are saying the Chavez support is soft and that the Winter number is what really matters; a number they say would put him in the run-off and in a position to win the ball game. And that's before he's even know by the wider public. But the Chavez camp is going to be anything but soft. Hardball is the game now. Keep an eye on your mailbox.

DEEP THROAT ROARS
"Deep Throat"
With all the bitching lately over the use of anonymous sources, the revelation that the then number two man in the FBI, Mark Felt, turns out to be the biggest anonymous source of all, "Deep Throat," seems especially timely. Regular readers here know where we stand; anonymous sources are essential to protect your freedom. No ifs, ands or buts. It's been that way since there was a free press. Corporate media backing down from their use is dangerous.

The news about Deep Throat brought it all back home. The real threat to a free society isn't a bunch of reporters who, on occasion, may screw up and misuse anonymous sourcing. The threat comes from those entrusted with power and who abuse it. Sure, Deep Throat may have had some personal motives for ratting out Nixon, but in our system of checks and balances that's how the game works. In the end the taxpaying public benefits as the society remains open. All the posturing about anonymous sources is best left to the ethics professors in the Ivory Towers. Here at ground zero, there's a First Amendment to take care of things. May it ever be so.

Help keep the politics flowing. Email your news from the link at the top right of the page. If you wish, you can remain anonymous so be sure to share your hot tips, comments and critiques with New Mexico's big political community.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Light Guv Diane Denish is apparently trying to beef up her Hispanic credentials as she hits the airwaves with a public service announcement that she narrates all in Spanish and that airs on non-Spanish TV. That's unusual for an Anglo politician in NM, most of whom shy away from speaking in their non-native tongue for fear of offending the truly practiced. Denish seems to pull it off OK, if haltingly. Her past relationships with prominent Hispanics, such as AG Patricia Madrid and ex Sec of State Stephanie Gonzales, have been testy. She also had run-ins with prominent Hispanic males during her time as chair of the state Dem party. Thus far, she is unchallenged for the 06' Dem nomination to go another four as Big Bill's number two. Insiders say that could change, but don't expect a big name Hispanic to take her on now that Madrid has apparently declined. Still, expect the Hobbs native to continue her bridge building to NM Hispanics.

The Spanish TV PSA is one of a gazillion Big Bill and Diane seem to be on these days. Some of them are provided free by the TV's, but most are paid for with the money coming from various taxpayer funded government programs. The omnipresent Bill and Diane ads add up to a decided advantage for the duo, who await word from the R's on who will oppose them next year.

DIANE'S HOUSING BOOM

Did you know that Diane Denish has a house in each of the state's three congressional districts? Hey, if the Light Guv gets bored there's always options, like a seat the U.S. House. But it's the Roundhouse in Santa Fe that remains her dream home.

A RATINGS REPEAT

It's a ratings repeat in local TV land. In the May sweeps, KOB barely beats KRQE to take top honors for 10 p.m. news watchers, results very similar to February's ratings battle. KOAT languishes in third place, but has shown a bit of progress since bottoming out a year ago. In the 6 p.m. news race, KOAT takes the top spot, but not by much over second place KOB. My TV insiders also report KRQE has the top-rated noon news broadcast in the NM market, now ranked 48th in the nation.

THE STREAM DREAM

Speaking of TV, one of the cool things being done at the city of ABQ government channel is the live streaming of all city council and county commission meetings The channel, GOV-16, is available only to subscribers of Comcast Cable, but now even non-subscribers can get to see the government meetings live, or watch them later just by going to the Web site. Why can't Santa Fe do this? Big Bill vetoed a bill that would have put up $50 grand to get the Legislature streamed on the Net. At least in Bernalillo County we are seeing how easily it can be done.

HEATHER GOES NATIONAL

Heather Wilson's foray into the debate over women in combat has won her some national attention, albeit a bit mixed. In a Washington Post report the ABQ GOP Congresswoman is dubbed "obstinate" by her majority leader in the GOP controlled U.S House. The Post dubs Wilson a "relative moderate," a term that aptly describes her as she continues, after seven years in the House, trying to balance the moderate bias of her district against her often conservative instincts. It seems with the House taking up even more controversial issues, such as banning stem-cell research, that Wilson, by comparison, will seem even more "moderate."

Help keep the politics flowing. Email your news from the link at the top right of the page. If you wish, you can remain anonymous so be sure to share your hot tips, comments and critiques with New Mexico's big political community.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author