Oh, what a sleep it's been. For two and a half years the party of the elephant has been napping while Big Bill has made our Enchanted Land his personal playground. But Wednesday the slumber ended abruptly as the NM GOP shrugged off the Sominex and hit the NM radio airwaves with a blast at Big Bill's purchase of a $5 million jet airplane. The June Jolt was also pointedly placed on the New Hampshire airwaves where the Guv was testing the waters for a possible Dem prez run in 08'.

"This was a good shot. They may not have a candidate, but they do have a commercial and it hits the spot," declared one Alligator with no dog in the fight. "The purchase of the airplane is going to be a sore point in a small, poor state like ours and all the spin doctors are not going to be able to overcome the resentment. The question remains whether this is a one shot deal and people forget or whether it's something that the R's can make stick and finally keep him on the defensive for more than a couple of days,"

Obviously, the R's are hoping for lasting impact. And they are also hoping to drum up excitement in their asleep at the switch party which has no major candidates for Guv or U.S. senate. "Who is going to give them money if they just lay there? It's about time they did something," said one R veteran who also said he thinks the national party is spurring this one on to hurt Big Bill's prez chances. "The national guys see an opportunity here and are pushing. If they can slow down any Dem's presidential chances, they will. It also comes on the heels of Republican Brand Winter's entry into the ABQ mayor's race, also perhaps inspired by the national party," explained our deep insider.

As we blogged Wednesday, Big Bill has been able to make the bold moves without fear of organized opposition. Some R's in the Legislature even supported the plane purchase and the Guv's office knocked the radio ad as "malicious" and "full of lies." But the issue is the kind that brings the uninvolved public to life. Until now, the Guv has been hitting political home runs, but there are few, if any, perfect games in the centuries old game of La Politica. At the least, the plane purchase is going to be scored an error. At worst, a turning point in the game. Stay tuned.

AN R FOR BILL
Steve Forbes
Not all R's are foes of Big Bill. A couple of weeks ago conservative Republican publisher and onetime prez candidate Steve Forbes dropped in on ABQ to tout an upcoming issue of his Forbes magazine featuring New Mexico, and surprising to some, to praise our state's top Democrat, Big Bill. But it's a former employee of Forbes' who has turned out to be one of the more prominent, persistent and effective NM media critics of the Guv. Steve Lawrence, editor of Crosswinds Weekly, once worked for Forbes in New York City and now regularly rips into Big Bill from the left of the political spectrum. Being knowledgeable in the biz area, the erudite Lawrence regularly focuses his wrath on Big Bill's tax cuts and his belief that the NM economy has not done much since the Big Guy took over.

While the Guv can be happy that many R's, like Forbes, warm to his economic policies, the shouts on the left have to be a bit worrisome for someone seeking the Dem prez nomination. The liberals have more than a bit of influence in that decision. By the way, Forbes was asking New Mexico businesses to cough up $80,000 for a one page ad in the NM issue which will circulate 900,000 copies. Did that influence his praise of Big Bill? Just asking.

Thanks for stopping by and for all your emails, many of which you will be seeing here in the days ahead. Keeep em' coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

What's that old saying? While Big Bill's away the R's will play? Something like that. No sooner had our Prez aspiring Guv landed in New Hampshire then word came that his administration had plunked down over $5 million for a fancy new jet plane. It was a political gifthorse that had the R's flooding talk radio and declaring that there is indeed a God. While there may be a God, there is no GOP candidate for governor and that explains a couple of things.

With his re-election bid looking more likely with each passing month, one top R chimed in that there is not much incentive for Big Bill to check himself when it comes to things like buying big airplanes. And with no major announced candidate for Guv, there is little effective criticism of the Fourth Floor. "We need a candidate on the ground and we need him now," our R urgently opined.

Big Bill will get his jet, but it will come with a new set of potential PR problems. Every trip, every stop and every passenger will be monitored for political slips. But for now, Big Bill is cleared for take off.

Meanwhile, the Guv blanketed New Hampshire like a wet snowfall Tuesday and will continue his offensive today. There was a New Mexico connection on one of his many stops, a dinner with a relative of Butch Maki, a major NM lobbyist and friend of Big Bill. We reported a couple of months ago that Butch was ready to deck out a luxurious motor home to escort the Guv around the Prez campaign trail. But with a $5.5 million plane in the hangar, Butch may have to up the ante to get some attention.

TURNING ON JEFF?

The R's also have their backs against the wall when it comes to finding someone to take on Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman next year. But I have a suggestion. How about water expert Bill Turner who last night was narrowly elected in Bernalillo county to a seat on the board of the Mid Rio Grande Conservancy District? After all, Turner made a run for the GOP Senate nomination back in 94', losing out to Roswell's Colin McMillan. Maybe his son, PR and political maven Doug Turner, could sign up to run the campaign, just like he did for for Gary Johnson's guv campaign also in 94'.

EL PASO CITY SHOCKER
Mayor-elect Cook
A shocker in the El Paso mayor's race has New Mexico politicos pondering whether there's any implications for the mayoral race in he Big Duke City set for Oct. 4. In Saturday's run-off election, incumbent El Paso Mayor Joe Wardy was thrown out of office by just one thousand votes. Winner and city councilor John Cook raised just $70k for the race compared to Wardy's nearly half million. What happened? Turnout. A pitiful 9% of El Paso voters came out. With that kind of turnout anything can and will happen. Polls are only reliable when their turnout assumptions are accurate. Not only did Wardy bite the dust, but severalincumbent city councilors (known there as reps) were also ousted. A true voter revolt, at least among the handful of voters who cared enough to show up.

Albuquerque elections draw a much larger percentage of the electorate, in the 40 to 50% range, so our polls have accurately reflected the eventual winners. But if turnout declined significantly, it could mean big upsets here as well. Intense negative campaigning can drive turnout down as voters reject everyone. Something to think about.

KEEP THE NEWS COMING

Already the middle of the week and there's a bunch of email I haven't gotten to, including stuff on Cannon Air Force Base. But I will get to that as well as your email which you can send from the top right of this page. Help us keep New Mexico's political community informed and, as always, thanks for making us a part of your day. Back tomorrow.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Big Bill
The scrutiny will get a bit more intense now as Big Bill steps on to the soil of the Granite State today and begins to float his name for the 08' Dem Prez nod. New Hampshire is a quirky place that will give our Guv the once over and start asking whether the party is ready for a Hispanic candidate, whether Big Bill is "Democratic" enough because he boasts about cutting taxes and also scrutinize his appearance. The disheveled look plays fine at home, but the Yankees in the Northeast may flinch. Veteran political writer Steve Terrell of the New Mexican is tagging along with the Big Guy who hs to respin some national pundits who are starting to label him as a more likely VP pick than a contender for the top spot.

ROBERTO'S AGUA

Roberto Mondragon was once vice-president of a sort. Well, Lt. governor of New Mexico anyway. The former number two under ex-Governor King has resurfaced with a high paying job with the State Engineer's office. Roberto, a water expert? He will be a "Special Water Projects Coordinator" at 75k a year, according to the engineer's office which says he will help the public understand "complex" water issues. But how he got the job is quite simple. Any friend of Big Bill is also a qualified state employee. The job party continues!

POWER SPORTS NO MORE
Mike Powers
The man who has occupied an anchor chair in the NM TV market for more consecutive years than anyone else is making a big switch come August. KRQE-TV's Mike Powers, calling the big plays at the station since 1985, is hanging up his cleats. But he isn't giving up that anchor chair. He will join the news wars as a co-anchor for the CBS affiliate's morning and noon news broadcasts. I don't know about Powers' nose for news, but he is the area's best on the sports beat, as addicted to his mission as you political junkies. I worked with him in his first years at 13 and was impressed as he covered the great sport of golf consistently. (No boos please). I still turn to Powers to give me the latest on he PGA Tour, so while we wish him well in his new venture, we urge the new guy or gal--don't know who it is yet--to not abandon Mike's passion for the links.

Thanks for joining me today. E-mail your tips from the top right of this page and keep the politics coming. And if you are traveling these warm days be sure to check out our sponsor, Enterprise rent-a-car, for your auto needs. Just click on their banner at the top.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Judy Espinosa
With the weekend entry of former state cabinet Secretary Judy Espinosa, the field for the 2005 ABQ mayoral derby appears set. Never say never, but the 5800 signatures and the gobs of dough needed to run in this thing should keep the field to the announced five, say the political pros, who add that they expect Dem David Steele to be the first to falter (if anyone does) and get out. So now what? That's what I asked the Senior Alligators of La Politica; those who have tasted the sweetness of victory in the rough and tumble world of Duke City politics and those who have been consigned to the halls of ignominy to suffer their rejection alone. Who better to tell the insider tales of the campaign ahead?

WINTER AND THE R'S

Is the Republican National Committee (RNC) ready to back the candidacy of GOP City Council Prez Brad Winter? Has he been promised their bucks and that's why he dived in? And what of that hastily called news conference to announce his candidacy Thursday that left media pros shaking their heads and his opponents thinking they dodged the first bullet from Winter's gun? Now, the answers.

My insiders report the RNC may very well come in to this race by coming up with cash to pay for anti-Chavez and/or pro-Winter literature and TV. Even the name of regional RNC operative Jay McCleskey is being tossed around as a key player in this scenario. That's the guy who ran the controversial and unsuccessful hit campaign against Winter and other City Council hopefuls in the 03' city election. If he climbs in the Brad bed, it will give new meaning to that old saying, "Politics makes for strange bedfellows."

"The most likely route for national Republican money is hits on (incumbent Dem Mayor Marty) Chavez. There is some paranoia that if he gets re-elected (ABQ Republican Congresswoman) Heather Wilson could be his next target. There's a school of thinking that he needs to be stopped now. Also, some R's would like to have an R mayor in ABQ when the governor seeks re-election next year," disclosed a top Republican operative at the highest levels of political power (not in NM).

But there are already rumblings from conservative R's about Winter's 'liberal leanings.' "Marty is seen as the conservative candidate by many businesspeople. Not Brad," offered up an insider.

WINTER TO PLAY COOL?
Winter
Winter is being advised to not personally attack Chavez and being told the third party GOP cash and the forces of Dems Eric Griego and Judy Espinosa can be counted on to do the job. But Winter's tepid opening (subdued press coverage, unfocused message) has slowed the momentum his candidacy was building prior to his announcement. Before he worries too much about an attack strategy on Chavez he has to revive his own viability in the eyes of the Alligators who are merciless in their assessments of those who climb on to the well-lighted stage of their beloved La Politica.

If Winter starts showing he has the right stuff, the spotlight will go on his money. Who's giving and how much? Enough to make this a real game? Big third party money to attack Chavez is one thing, but Winter will need his own seed money to puff himself up. In politics, promises without cash are what clouds without rain are to a farmer.

MAYOR MARTY

There's no hemming or hawing in the Chavez camp over those RNC rumors. They flat out say they believe the money is coming in to take their man out and they are manning the battle stations. "Brad's weak first performance has them sighing some relief, but this is the start of a long race and they can't expect him to keep giving freebies, especially if the hard ball players take up his cause," noted one Marty sympathizer.

But Chavez may be getting some 'third party' support of his own from the one and only Big Bill. The Dem Guv made kissy with Marty at a joint news conference the day Winter announced. Coincidence? And then there's my deep insider report that Marty will accompany Big Bill on his European tour next month. "Everyone in politics knows there's no love lost between those two, but if the Republicans are going to play, Marty and Bill become natural allies. Bill knows their ultimate target is him and having an ally in the high profile ABQ mayor's office is more important than whether he and Marty can have quality time together," wryly commented an Alligator with several decades of experience on the treacherous playing field of New Mexico politics.

The Chavez money advantage is big, but if outside groups are going to play he may need all of his half-million and more. "Remember, the ABQ police union put up $60 thousand four years ago when they endorsed Marty and that money went into TV ads. If he has groups coming against him it will keep him busy on the fundraising circuit," noted another deep insider.

Of course, outside groups, according to the law, are not allowed to "coordinate" their message with the individual campaigns, nor directly endorse a candidate. But the money genie is out of the bottle when it comes to ABQ campaigns so prepare for the worst.

JUDY AND ERIC

"She did good," deadpanned an insider who has no life and spent the weekend monitoring developments in the Judy Espinosa mayoral announcement and then reported to us via e-mail. "She put on a decent event. That contrasted with Winter's nonevent. She also got a pretty good write up in the Sunday ABQ Journal, although for some reason Marty and Brad got the front page when they announced and she got the front back page of a back section. She seemed engaged and informed in the TV news clips and the crowd on hand was not great but good enough. It's clear that Eric and Judy are both credible candidates with the liberal wing of the Dem party and they are going to slow each other down. Judy will need to flex her financial muscle soon and often if this thing is not going to narrow quickly," summed up our dedicated junkie.
Griego
Meanwhile, back on the bridge, it was City Councilor Griego stopping traffic and telling motorists not to forget him or his hot-button idea to consider toll roads to handle ABQ traffic. He hit with that a day before Judy announced, leaving observers to speculate that it was a reminder to his liberal base that he's the real deal and not to be romanced by the diminutive yet feisty Espinosa. "Eric's camp believes they have new life, that Winter in the race will slow down Chavez. But money and Judy are still big worries," reported an Alligator familiar with the Griego situation.

According to my reliable insider sources, there's also "third party" money talk in the Griego camp. "There's noise being made about the labor unions coming in to blast Chavez, allowing Griego to stop fighting so much with the Mayor," reports our source. Which leads me to ask just who will be running this upcoming campaign. If all these third parties come in we may get an outsider consulted, cookie-cutter campaign, the kind we all witness and despise every two years for the state's congressional seats.

IS THAT ENOUGH?

There you have the big picture of this coming campaign. With a multi-candidate field and a run-off election if no one gets 40% of the vote, this one is going to have the Alligators dizzy figuring the angles. Aren't you glad you just have to vote?

OK. If this double blog hasn't been enough to satisfy you, I strongly recommend group therapy for political addiction. But if you must have more, check out this ABQ Trib piece from Erik Siemers featuring yours truly and fellow insatiable political junkie Brian Sanderoff.

Rest up. Back tomorrow with more from the always spinning world of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author