Continuing to pull all out the stops, Big Bill will host a dinner at the Guv's Mansion August 21 for none other than United Nations Secretary-General Koffi Annan. That word from the northern Alligators who say the invitations for the event with the world's top diplomat have gone out and Santa Fe is ready to roll out the red carpet. (Do they still do that? And who qualifies?)

Big Bill, of course, served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under President Clinton. Annan, a native of Ghana, has headed the international body since 1997 and is scheduled to end his second term at the end of the year.

Richardson and Annan are sure to exchange notes on troublesome North Korea, a region of specialty for the Guv and where it was rumored this week that he would again be visiting, but his office scotched those reports.

The visit will push the Big Bill prestige meter higher as he works for a 60% plus win over GOP rival John Dendahl, who might say the Annan visit is just another sign that the Guv is really running for Prez and the visit is irrelevant to the state.

But we think Koffi, dealing with a no-end-in-sight Iraq war, a crisis in the Mid-East and a nuclear-determined Iran, will find himself right at home in our Enchanted Land. After all, political chaos and intrigue have been the order of the day around here for over four hundred years.

We are worried about one thing, though. If the Guv lets Koffi watch any TV, he might be moved to call for a cease fire between Heather and Patsy. Hey, we're all for world peace, but let's not overdo it.

ON THE WARFRONT

On a more serious note, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are far away, but they are being felt here at home. The list of NM casualties continues to mount. And they are remembered.

Opposition to the Iraq war has now hit an all-time, according to the latest CNN poll. Sixty percent of Americans are against and 61% said they believed at least some U.S. troops should be withdrawn by the end of the year.

ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson expressed hope in December that some of the troops might be able to come home this year, but then she reverted to a tougher tone when national R's renewed the "cut and run" mantra. Dem Patsy Madrid has called for setting a timetable for withdrawal. With these polling numbers, Heather's hawkish tone could be subject to change--not much, but some. Don't say we didn't tell you.

THE OUTSIDER R

Meanwhile, there is one NM R running for Congress who is firmly against the Iraq war. Republican Ron Dolin of Los Alamos, seeking the northern seat held by Dem Rep. Tom Udall, is celebrating Tuesday's victory by liberal anti-war candidate Ned Lamont over incumbent Joe Lieberman in the U.S. Senate Dem Connecticut primary.

"The Lamont victory is a victory for all Americans. We witnessed the birth of a movement. Grassroots Americans, tired of professional politicians who have forgotten the people they represent, are taking back their government." Said Dolin. He added that he will "reach out to Democrats and Independents who are tired of the political elite in Washington."

Ron is hitting some nerves with this rhetoric as voters look for change, but Tom Udall is no Joe Lieberman. At least he hopes not.

RATING THE RADIOS

Here are the top five radio stations in the big ABQ market, according to the latest Arbitron ratings. And since all of them appeal to adults, they will receive the bulk of the political ads in the months ahead. Listed is the average share of each of the top five among listeners aged 12+ for 6.a.m.. to Midnight.

1. KKOB-AM--News/Talk--7.6
2. KZRR-FM (94 Rock)----5.2
3. KMGA-FM (Magic 99)---5.1
4. KABG-FM (Big Oldies)---4.7
5. KBQI-FM (The Big I--Country)--4.6
5. KRST-FM (Country)----4.6

The ABQ radio market is Bernalillo and Sandoval counties and has a population of 654,200, ranking it #70 among USA markets. In Santa Fe, the last ratings released in January had Big Oldies KABG-FM tied with classical music station KHFM-FM for the #1 spot. In Las Cruces, the El Paso stations dominate, but I will try to get some ratings info on the local stations for you.

Thanks for your news tips and comments. Keep them coming via the email link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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The national pundits are starting to ring the bell on this election and House Republicans are not liking the sound. In New Mexico talk is beginning to circulate of the possibility that GOP House Reps Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson could, for the first time, find themselves serving in the minority party, assuming they both win re-election.

One of the more thoughtful, nonpartisan analysts I have followed over the years is D.C.'s Charlie Cook and his Cook Report. He is not known for aggressive predictions, but is now saying House R's are going down in what appears to be a "tidal-wave" election.

"In terms of the political climate, the facts are clear. All of the traditional diagnostic indicators in major national polls taken in the past 10 days show numbers consistent with an electoral rout...Democrats will have a strong turnout advantage--it is very clear that they are more motivated than Republicans. In a very large tidal-wave election, as this one appears to be, it would not be unusual to see all toss-ups go to one party, along with a few from the leaning column as well." Penned Cook for the National Journal.

For NM's Pearce and Wilson the Cook analysis is a dreadful fate to ponder. For Dem Tom Udall of the North it is a long-held dream with finally the potential to become reality.

A House Dem takeover would certainly make serving in the House less appealing to Pearce and Wilson, but with their party in charge of all three branches of government, and a majority of Americans not happy about it, they will probably be grateful if they simply survive re-election. There's still three months to go. Let's see if the worm turns.

IMPACT ON YOU

As for the impact on our state, in a Dem controlled House Udall would be expected to step-up and carry more water. In the Senate, the GOP keeping control is more likely which means Senator Domenici will remain our go-to guy. But if the Dems take the senate, Senator Bingaman, a likely re-elect winner, will take the ball and chair Senate Energy, as he did when the D's last controlled the upper chamber.

It's not just high gas prices, the out-of-control Iraq War, the insecure economy and the iffy condition healthcare that's driving the desire for change. Polls show a significant block of voters are wary of one party controlling the entire USA government. Checking the party in power is an American tradition. It is a tradition likely to be restored come Election Day.

NOW HE'S AN AVERAGE JOE
Ned Lamont
Did we see the first ripples of the tidal wave to come last might? Maybe. It's not everyday day that a sitting U.S. Senator is given his walking papers by members of his own party. But it happened to Connecticut Joe Lieberman who fell to Ned Lamont. The Alligators checking in here late in the evening said the turnout was the most important number in weighing what impact, if any, the election has on the Wilson-Madrid face-off. They pointed out that 42% of Connecticut's Democrats turned out, high by any standards and a sign that at least the liberal base is very energized. That can't hurt Madrid.

Lieberman's ability to close the gap--he lost by four points--heartened Heather supporters who said it demonstrated the power of incumbency. Still, another offered that the defeat of Lieberman has to "send a shiver down the spines" of all incumbents, including Heather's. Hard to argue with that.

From this corner, last night reminded me of 1968 and watching the returns from the New Hampshire Prez primary in which President Johnson was almost defeated by the anti-war candidate of that day, Eugene McCarthy. Shortly after, Johnson withdrew from the race. McCarthy invigorated the anti-war movement and showed that the people are often way ahead of the politicians. (Just look at the national polls.) I suspect sentiment will grow even stronger against the Iraq war as a result of Lieberman's defeat.

TRAIL ACTION

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Patsy Madrid moved to take the offensive against Heather who has been on the ethics attack since mid-July. Madrid hit with the powerful issue of high gas prices, and put the blame on Wilson who she slammed for being in the pockets of the oil companies.

(We've posted Madrid's ads because they are available. Wilson's ads are not on the Web and her campaign, to my knowledge, has not been distributing them to media outlets.)

The most gripping image in the latest Madrid spot is the billboard showing the prices well over $3 a gallon. That simple sign effectively captures the rationale for political change and crystallizes why this race is likely to go down to the wire.

Heather picked up some "free media' this week on her ethics charges, enlisting the aid of former Guv Gary Johnson who said Attorney General Madrid was negligent in not pursuing corruption charges against state Treasurers Vigil and Montoya. Tuesday Madrid answered the Wilson onslaught with a sharply produced ad that declared: "Two attack ads, two lies."

The spots from both sides are powerful which leads me to believe that televised debates are going to be crucial for many voters in making a final decision. The candidates would be well-advised to keep their briefing books at their bedsides.

News? Comments? Interested in advertising here? Drop me an e-mail from the top of the page. And, as always, thanks for your company. Back at ya' tomorrow.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Judy Espinosa
NM Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is adding some political muscle to her staff in the form of the diminutive but feisty veteran government player Judy Espinosa. Insiders report Judy, a two time NM cabinet secretary and an 05' candidate for ABQ mayor, will assume the title of chief of staff to the state's number two effective next week. Current chief Chris Cervini will continue on staff, specializing in communications.

Espinosa, a longtime enivornmentalist, is currently head of the University of New Mexico's Alliance for Transportation Research Institute, with other government experience as long as the barely five feet she stands. (Complete bio here.)

As a Hispanic woman Judy brings to the Denish table valuable ties that Diane needs as she looks ahead four years to when she plans to seek the Dem nomination for governor. Denish has previously run campaigns against Patricia Madrid and Stephanie Gonzales, campaigns that got rough and left a bad taste for the Light Guv in some Hispanic circles. Espinosa's hiring is a clear signal to them.

Espinosa never did make it on the mayoral ballot, failing to gather the necessary signatures. But she remains a respected figure in state Democratic party circles, with her name being mentioned as a possible state chair last year when some D's were questioning the leadership of current chair John Wertheim.

The New Mexico native is also an attorney (UNM Law School) and holds a masters degree in public administration (University of California) and has been called a pioneer in the advancement of NM Hispanic women (and women in general) to the upper reaches of government since being named NM's secretary of transportation in 1983.

JUDY'S POLITICS

Espinosa drew intense criticism from fellow Democratic liberals for trying to get in last year's ABQ mayor's race, with supporters of fellow progressive Eric Griego accusing her of being a spoiler of his candidacy, of having a stubborn streak and being driven by ego. Griego went on to lose to Mayor Chavez.

Interestingly, it is Mayor Chavez who is already being touted as a rival to Denish for the Dem Guv nomination four years hence. Denish was Marty's running mate when they lost the big prize to Gary Johnson in 98.' Do you think Judy's run against Marty had anything to do with Diane picking her? Well, maybe just a little.

Espinosa's addition to Team Denish pairs two of our state's most formidable political players who will face the challenge of carving out a more perceptible identity for the Light Guv while not stepping on the toes of the Big Cheese, aka, Big Bill. It appears the decorated and decades long resume of Judy Espinosa is about to be put to the ultimate test under the harsh, bright lights of La Politica.

SPEAKING OF MARTY

Will Marty get the last word? The ABQ Mayor endorsed fellow Dem Madrid last week and in doing so demanded that Heather repudiate the "radical" candidacy of GOP Guv nominee John Dendahl. Heather's supporters fired back that Madrid went soft on investigating Chavez's ABQPAC and that Chavez's endorsement was payback. Now Chavez sympathizers fire yet another round, asking where is Heather's answer to Mayor Marty's question about Dendahl. "Does she support Dendahl and his platform or not?" pushed one of them. To be continued?

THE WOMEN WE LOVE

It will stay tit for tat in the hotly contested race for the 1st congressional district seat, with Dem nominee Patricia Madrid set to unveil a new TV ad today replying to Heather's latest ethics blast. Wilson opened up round two as she came with a spot claiming that Madrid ignored a letter from state officials that asked her to investigate corruption charges in the state Treasurer's office. Madrid says she never received such a letter.

More importantly, will the Dems be able to move the campaign beyond the ethics issue and will Heather be able to stop them? "Wilson will not get the early knockout on ethics. This one is going to go the distance because Madrid is already well-known and well-financed. It's tough to define a candidate who is already defined," argues Democratic pollster and politico Harry Pavlides. "Heather is doing what she has to do, but Madrid will be there for the late rounds because the issues this time are so big." He further analyzed.

The pollster believes incumbent Wilson holds a couple point lead in the early going.

MICKEY'S GOT MAIL

Mickey Barnett proved far less controversial to the U.S. Senate than he has to some fellow NM Republicans. His nomination to the U.S. Postal Service Board of Governors was approved by the senate before it broke for the August recess. Barnett's nomination came under fire from ex-State Reps Earlene Roberts and Ron Godbey who wrote letters to senators urging a rejection. But Barnett, a former legislative aide to NM senior GOP senator Pete Domenici, had Pete's muscle and that was more than enough to insure his confirmation.

Roberts and Godbey cited Barnett's support of drug decriminalization and his spearheading of the movement to put up candidates against fellow Republicans in the 2004 primary as reasons he should be rejected.

The attorney-lobbyist and former NM GOP national committeeman was most recently in the blog headlines when it was revealed that he helped give birth, along with Domenici Chief-of-Staff Steve Bell, to the GOP Governor candidacy of John Dendahl because they wanted stronger attacks against Big Bill than initial GOP nominee J.R. Damron was willing to deliver. Bell has denied playing midwife, but Washington sources insist otherwise. Sources close to Governor Big Bill reacted to that news by warning that Senator Domenici could face a Richardson recruited foe in 2008.

Barnett, along with John Dendahl, led the movement to oust Ramsay Gorham from the state GOP chairmanship two years ago, a move that symbolized the divisions in the state's minority party.

And so it goes. Your email of news, comments and criticisms are always welcome. There's a link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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A key issue overhanging Campaign 06' is that federal investigation into alleged corruption in the construction of two Bernalillo county courthouses and the Metro jail. Now a reliable source says do not, repeat, do not expect any indictments in the matter before the November election.

"One of the same prosecutors who is involved in the retrial of (ex-Treasurer) Vigil is also working the courthouse case." This Senior Alligator says that means the indictments, if there are to be any, would come after the Vigil retrial (set for September 5) and very likely after the fall election.

Announcement of indictments during the middle of the campaign could have an impact on the overall mood of the voters.

Again, our customary caution. That a wide-ranging federal investigation is underway has been confirmed. (ABQ Journal investigative reporter Mike Gallagher updated the probe {PDF} over the weekend.) However, the only ones who know with certainty whether there will be indictments, or whether indictments are being pursued, are those directly involved and they are not talking. But the political impact on the campaigns of any developments in the case is of such significance it cannot be ignored.

MOVING AGAINST MARTY

Fans of GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson are not letting Dem ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez slide for his endorsement of Wilson foe, Patricia Madrid. They are saying there are some reasons for that endorsement that the mayor and Madrid would rather go ignored. From the email:

"Marty endorsing Patsy is not a shocker, considering she refused to investigate the mayor's famous ABQPAC. Unlike the Vigil corruption scandal, there is no doubt (attorney general) Patsy was asked to investigate both the ABQPAC and the ABQ police evidence room scandals. In both cases she let Marty slide. In the end, her choosing politics over ethics will cost her this and future races."

Chavez was reprimanded by the city Board of Ethics for his role in ABQPAC. The police evidence room scandal involved the stealing of evidence and cash. No one was ever prosecuted.

Chavez, a veteran player of hardball, is sure to press his attack on Wilson and continue to call on her, as he did last week, to repudiate the "radical" candidacy of GOP Guv nominee John Dendahl. And Heather is just as likely to continue pounding the ethics hammer on Madrid. Her latest attack ad shows huge pictures of ex-Treasurers Vigil and Montoya. Just in case you forgot. The ABQ Trib's Kate Nash has more.

DENDAHL'S FAULTY DANCE

While Chavez was being ripped for his Patsy play, candidate Dendahl was playing right into his hands...again. NM school teachers are to blame for poor student test results, Dendahl declared, because they are too busy teaching "sexuality, self-esteem and socialism."

State GOP chair Allen Weh moved to distance the party from the remarks asserting that those are "John's individual remarks." Surely Heather will also be asked what she makes of the comments, complicating her efforts to position herself as a "moderate" voice. And one wonders what NM GOP senior U.S. Senator Pete Domenici thinks of these lastest "remarks."

Dendahl's red-hot rhetoric is escalating talk that Big Bill's chances of receiving over 60% of the vote are rapidly going from long shot to quite likely. He seems to know it too as he campaigns for the Dem Prez nomination with impunity.

Dendahl's past political dances have been as a party chairman and took place on the small floor of partisanship. But now, on the brightly lit stage of La Politica, he is faltering. The only good news is that his implosion is coming in August, giving him a bit of time to get his dance steps corrected. But he sorely needs some lessons.

AND THE WINNERS ARE...

There's no shortage of witty political observers, and we laughed aloud reading their entries to the Blog Photo Contest. Last week we asked readers to write a caption to the off-the-wall photo of Big Bill sporting a hairnet with his hand submerged in a batch of genuine Dona Ana county pecans. We promised a free lunch to the top two entries, and the winners are.....

Hope Garcia of Rio Rancho, NM topped them all, submitting not just one caption, but several, all of them genuine rib-ticklers.

"I know there's a Snickers bar in here somewhere."

"This is the last time I play 'Truth or Dare' with John Dendahl."

"All of these nuts make me feel like I'm still in Santa Fe."

"This is good practice for raiding the Permanent Fund again."

Hope, you outdid yourself. You have the pick of the menu at the famous ABQ Barelas Coffee House.

And we were won over by the way Patrick Adler of Toronto, Canada wove NM politico Manny Aragon into the picture:

"Sure they're high in fat....but Manny said he'd treat me to my next round of Lipo!"

Very clever, Patrick. And with all the Prez candidates on the Slimfast, quite timely too. If you can't make it to ABQ for your free lunch, we'll ship you a bunch of green chile.

BIG BILL'S "OFFICIAL" PIC

In a sidebar to this, while the contest was underway what popped up in the email? Why, it was a brand new picture of Big Bill from the Guv's office, with a message asking the media to use it as a replacement for other stock photos. It's a darn good photo too, but where's the hairnet?

Thanks to all those who entered the contest. We'll have more fun stuff for you soon. Meantime, email me your political news and gossip from the link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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