In a congressional race that has been tighter than Willie Nelson's headband, there were some signs of loosening as we headed into the final weekend of Campaign 06. Nationally, it appeared the Democratic trend was continuing and perhaps gaining a bit of steam and there was no reason to think it would not be felt here where ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson and Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid have battled for more than a year.

A variety of pundits and politicos were saying they see Madrid as the narrow leader and were waiting confirmation of their gut feel from the final ABQ Journal Poll on Sunday. Among them was KKOB-AM's Jim Villanucci, a Heather supporter, whose program I appeared on Friday and who is now saying he now sees Madrid in the lead by a couple of points. It was a viewpoint being echoed across La Politica, but few were willing to call this hard-fought race either on or off the record. Maybe that will change tomorrow, and we'll be here to tell you if it does.

I told the KKOB audience what to look for on Sunday: the candidate who is atop the Journal poll, and it doesn't matter by how much. That candidate has gone on to win in all but two cases in the past 20 years. Madrid was ahead of Heather in the mid-October survey and the smart money was betting that she will be clinging to the lead Sunday.

LAURA'S LOVE-IN

The GOP, the party of strong closes, continues to push hard, taking advantage of Madrid's debate missteps in TV spots and bringing in First Lady Laura Bush to rally the troops.

But for Heather there was no escaping the primary issue in the campaign. She was again asked Friday what she thought of the job President Bush was doing and again she refused to answer. In just two days the people will answer that question.

BACA VS. LYONS

Besides the congressional duel, the other big race in play is for state land commissioner between Dem Jim Baca and incumbent R Pat Lyons. Tracking data shows Lyons starting to move ahead in Bernalillo county and its suburbs, which he must if he is to offset the Democratic North which should perform well for Baca.

Rancher Lyons has planted himself in the metro trying to boost his lead here. Friday he joined with Lionsgate Entertainment and the City of Rio Rancho to finalize a land acquisition that will bring the well-known film company to New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Baca trying to win his third term as land commissioner since the early 80's, was basking in the glow of his moments with ex-President Clinton who chatted with Baca Thursday night at a Madrid rally. Baca got lucky and was shown with the ex-Prez in the closing moments of one of the late news broadcasts.

The race will likely be the closest one we cover on Election Night when we gather the gang at the studios of KANW 89.1 FM for continuous coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. Monday at 5 p.m. we'll have the Election Eve Special with predictions and analysis starting at 5 p.m.

SEALING THE DEAL

Big Bill will close out his campaign by attending a rally in ABQ's South Valley today and doing an old fashioned whistle-stop train trip Sunday. On Monday he will board an airplane for stops in SE NM. The Guv is trying to run the table and round up conservative votes in a region that would normally go heavy for R nominee John Dendahl.

Speaking of Dendahl, he was at the Laura Bush-Heather rally Friday, but television coverage of the event had neither him or GOP senate candidate Allen McCulloch anywhere in sight. The stage was strangely barren for a major political rally. Usually, all the major candidates are pictured behind the speaker, in this case the First Lady. Friday it was Wilson introducing Mrs. Bush and Senator Domenici (who is not on the ballot) sitting oddly alone behind her.

Maybe they planned this one differently, but it was a stark reminder of the GOP weakness at the top of the ticket and how lonely this fight has been for the four term representative.

VOTE--FOR THE ADS

The Wilson-Madrid race was staying almost exclusively negative on the tube as we headed into Saturday, as both candidates apparently feared going positive was too risky in the tight race. But there have been some humorous moments in the campaign. One we highlighted here was the "Sheriff" ad released by the Governor and which is now among the nominees for being one of the best of its kind in a national poll. You can vote on your favorite here.

After this campaign, more people may want to vote on the best and worst TV ads rather than the candidates who all look like Satan incarnate after being sprayed with nonstop mud pies.

We're bloggin' it all the way through. Back tomorrow with a special Sunday edition. I hope you can join me.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Madrid & Clinton
Bill Clinton warmed up a crowd of Democrats on behalf of congressional hopeful Patricia Madrid late last night, but many thousands more monitoring their TV sets for a live snippet of the ex-President's speech went to bed disappointed. The perennially late Prez arrived at 10:24 p.m. but did not disembark until 10:35, just in time to miss the news broadcasts of all three network affiliates. (Can you imagine the Madrid staffers watching the precious minutes tick away? I could almost hear cries of, "Storm the Plane" from my downtown perch miles away.)

Two of the three stations teased viewers at the top of the 10 p.m. hour with live reports and advice for the audience to stay tuned as Clinton's arrival was expected any minute. But it never happened. KOAT-TV managed to air a very brief shot of Clinton and Madrid walking from his jet at 10:35, but the money shot of Clinton on stage and hoisting Madrid's arm in the sign of victory--a possible emotional high point for her campaign--was, to put it mildly, a missed opportunity.

Spontaneous TV has been Madrid's curse this campaign. She fought tooth and nail to avoid more than one televised debate with GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, and the one she did resulted in errors that led to two hard-hitting TV spots Wilson is using against the attorney general to close out the campaign.

Some may argue that it doesn't matter; that Clinton's visit, televised live or not, will energize the Democratic base and let them know Patsy has the blessing of the Prez so dear to them; that the morning TV shows and the newspapers will pick up the slack. But that would be spin. The fact is that this campaign has been all about TV; millions have been spent on canned and negative spots. A prompt 10 p.m. appearance by Clinton would have put a long-overdue and positive tone on
this most negative of campaigns.

CLINTON'S DIVING BOARD

Photographer Mark Bralley manned the event for your blog. The retired ABQ policeman said he did a "cop count" to arrive at his estimate of a crowd of 2,000, and that was a good turnout for the hour. (The Journal sid 500 attended the event.)

He reports that Clinton told the party faithful, Governor Richardson and all the statewide Dem candidates that many voters here are "diving board voters" and afraid to jump. He said they know "things are wrong" but need some coaxing to change their habit of always voting for the R and urged those at the rally to persuade their neighbors to make the leap.

Heather will try to offset Clinton's appearance today as First Lady Laura Bush rallies the GOP base at a 3 p.m event at Journal Center in ABQ. The highly structured schedule of Laura will guarantee a timely arrival and heavy coverage on the early evening news shows. That tape will be contrasted with Clinton's visit, which to Heather's benefit will be cast in a much more partisan light.

In the battle of the big guns, score it for Heather.

WHO NEEDS BILL?

Dems may have been a bit downhearted that the Clinton event did not deliver all the punch it could have---maybe they should have told him it was at eight and he would have made it by ten--but they are not at all crestfallen about Patsy's chances of upsetting Heather. They point to political guru Larry Sabato's final ranking of the race in which he predicts Heather is a goner. And MSNBC Thursday was also calling the race a likely Dem takeover. The political community anxiously awaits the final ABQ Journal poll Sunday which will include surveys of folks who have already voted and provide the final snapshot before the final round of voting Tuesday.

OUR OWN BILL

Now it's $13 million. That is the incredulous sum raised by Big Bill since the start of his re-election effort and as reported by the AP's Barry Massey. $13 million!? The Governor will likely get over 60% of the vote Tuesday, but with that kind of money he may be raising the bar on those all-important expectations. After all, R Guv nominee John Dendahl has raised a mere $300,000. With that kind of difference, it will now be a shocker if the Guv doesn't poll comfortably past the 60% mark.

RYAN'S HOPE
Sen. Ryan
GOP ABQ State Senator John Ryan is one of the more pragmatic political observers you will find, and when I chatted him up recently in preparation for his appearance on my KANW Election Eve Special at 5 p.m. Monday on KANW 89.1 FM, he was down-to-earth about the R's chances in the big races, but said he sees a glimmer of hope for a couple of Legislative races that have him thinking that if the stars align just right, his party might be able to pick up more than the one or two seats that observers are forecasting, maybe even three or four.

He said to keep an eye on Dem Rep. Don Whitaker in SE NM who has been hit hard by his opponent for voting to approve drivers licenses' for undocumented workers. He also pointed to Dona Ana county where D Andy Nunez is in another close contest to hold his seat. Andy always seems to pull out, but it is usually close.

The race to succeed R Ed Boykin is another to keep on the radar, opined Ryan. He says D Jeff Steinborn has not yet closed the deal against R Scott Witt. And two Valencia county seats, especially the one being vacated by Fred Luna, has a good chance to go R with Jackie Farnsworth carrying the GOP banner.

Ryan says he sees Rep. Teresa Zanetti holding her seat, despite a tough challenge by Traci Jo Cadigan, and many Dem observers are now agreeing with that assessment. The Joe Stell seat in the SE is destined to go R, agree analysts on both sides of the aisle.

You may have to go all the way down the ballot to spot Ryan's possible ray of Republican light, but as a former executive director of the GOP, the lawmaker has a lot of NM experience and we'll be keeping close tabs Election Night on the races he has pinpointed.

LORENZO'S TV DEBUT

Dem state auditor candidate and State Rep. Hector Balderas has had a media free ride as his opponent, R Lorenzo Garcia, has been dark. But Garcia has come up with enough money now to make a small statewide cable TV buy and will go on the air today with this spot which hits Hector for not having a CPA, while Garcia does. Garcia received the endorsements of all the state's major newspapers because of his lengthy experience and that CPA certificate. Hector has TV spots up introducing himself to the public and if the polls have it right, they have been well-received.

AWAITING THE RETURNS

The margin of victory of some of the Dem statewide races might surprise some causal observers. But remember, there are no incumbents running for treasurer, auditor, attorney general or secretary of state. That hasn't been the case for eight years and some folks may be misreading the closeness of some of the contests coming through in various media, tracking and party polls. The public does not know these candidates well and in the polls the Dem contenders are not heading north of the 50% mark. But historically these races break strongly on party identification, unless a candidate has spent a ton of money.

The R's have targeted the AG's and secretary of state's race and say they have shaved the leads of their Dem rivals. But election after election we have seen the North report late with just huge margins for the Dem candidates. It doesn't mean it is going to happen again, but something to keep in mind as we watch the early returns come in.

WHERE WE'LL BE

We'll close out Campaign 06' in a variety of media forums in the coming days. Today (Friday) we'll stop by 770 KKOB-AM and visit on the air for an hour with Jim Villanucci at 4 p.m. Jim's been covering this one wall-to-wall for a month so it should be fun...Over the weekend, we'll be on all the other ABQ Citadel Broadcasting stations including KRST 92.3 FM at 10:30 p.m. Saturday and KKOB 93.FM and KMGA 99.5 FM at 6 a.m. Sunday.

On Monday, our KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve Special kicks off at 5 p.m. We'll analyze the key races with top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, Dem State Rep. Al Park, R State Senator John Ryan and veteran NM journalist Sherry Robinson. Also Monday, we'll sit down with KRQE-TV anchorman and political junkie Dick Knipfing at around 4:20 p.m. for a final look at Campaign 06.'

AND ELECTION NIGHT!

Election Night will find us back before the KANW 89.1 FM microphones for our 19th year of coverage there. Scanland will join GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga and Dem Rep. Park. They'll be joined by Sandy Buffett of the Conservation Voters of NM and lifelong Democrat Lenton Malry who will bring in early results as he has for 19 years. Dem Chris Catcheis will be reporting from his party's party and veteran radio man Jay Howard Deme is back with us to report from GOP headquarters.

A new twist for us this year is streaming the program on the World Wide Web. If you are in Washington D.C. or anyplace else outside of our signal range, the latest on what is happening will be available from your computer. Just come to this blog Election Night and press on the logo directing you to the coverage and then sit back and enjoy. (We'll do a dry run Monday with the pre-game show.)

It's going to be a very exciting and very long evening. We hope to get an early glimpse of the results from our spotters at key precincts in the ABQ metro area. State Senator James Taylor will have an early take on the South Valley. R Bruce Donisthorpe will man the computers and TV screens and help us track the important national action. At Midnight or 1 a.m. I will pause to cover the Madrid-Wilson race nationally for National Public Radio in Washington. I wonder if we will have a winner by then.

Our sponsors for the KANW public radio coverage are NM public relations firm DW Turner--"strategies and ideas that win"--Enterprise rent-a-car, the Bill Campbell Agency, Real Estate and Ladera Golf in ABQ, offering great golf and meeting facilities. Thanks to all of them for their support, and to you, my readers and listeners.

And the fun isn't over yet. We'll stay with you throughout the weekend, blogging Saturday and Sunday, so make sure to stop by.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pete Domenici has seen his Republican Party have better times. Much better. But the state's senior senator has been as reliable as an atomic clock when it comes to showing up in the final days of a major campaign. There was a certain poignancy to his Wednesday ABQ news conference where he went before cameras to try to drum up some attention for the R's.

Pete is a reassuring symbol to the faithful, but like the passengers on the Titanic who grabbed at the priest's robes as the ship sank, he can only console, not rescue anyone from the wall of water that seems to be forming on the shores of America and which could birth a Democratic Tidal Wave Tuesday Night.

It's nothing Pete hasn't seen before. He surfed the waves of 74' and 94' and he's ridden strong torrents of Democratic water in his home state since 72'. I remember well the gubernatorial campaign of 1982 when the victory of Dem Toney Anaya was inevitable. Pete appeared at the Roundhouse in the final days with the R nominee, John Irick, and insisted, in the face of credulity, that John could pull it out. He has always kept the home fires burning, and the turnout drum beating.

The old sea captain still has a stomach for the rough seas, but this year he sails alone.

PREDICTING PETE

The analysts and Alligators are closely monitoring the election for its impact on Pete's fortunes. He long ago threw in the towel on the Guv and senate contests, but holds hope for GOP land commissioner Pat Lyons and maybe one more of the down-ballot races. He worked with the Republican National Committee to put the attorney general and secretary of state's contests on the radar. Polling shows likely Dem wins.

Republicans, and not a few Democrats, are concerned that if the senate goes Dem Tuesday night, Domenici, who has super-seniority and brings billions into the state, may consider not seeking re-election in 08.' Why become a renter when you've been a landlord, goes the reasoning.

Domenici has not concealed his desire for Heather Wilson to take over his seat and continue his legacy, but if Wilson loses her ABQ congressional seat, it will crush that dream and increase pressure on Pete not to abandon a run for an unprecedented seventh six year term.

Domenici would lose his energy committee chairmanship to fellow NM Senator Bingaman if the Dems secure the senate. They have done that switch once before, but speculators wonder if it would have a more deflating impact on Pete if it happened again.

Another issue facing the senator is the divisions in the state GOP and whether he moves to clean up the mess before he launches any re-election drive. He has played both sides of the feud, but if the party suffers a sweeping NM defeat Tuesday, he may finally have to assert direct leadership or else have a cloud hanging over his own campaign.

PETE AND BILL

There is also the Big Bill factor. As we reported in June, the Guv is serious about finding a candidate to run against Pete because he believes the move to dump J.R. Damron as the GOP Guv nominee and replace him with John Dendahl came out of Pete's office.

As a reminder that the hard feelings are still there, sources close to Big Bill are touting a recent Survey USA poll that shows Richardson finally surpassing Domenici in a poll ranking popularity. It shows Domenici is at 61%, down from 66% last month, his lowest since June 05'. Richardson is at 69% this month, unchanged from last month and an all-time high.

"We are gleeful about it," trumpeted a Big Bill acolyte.

New Mexico has a pretty good deal with a powerful Dem Governor and a powerful GOP U.S. Senator. It gives us entree to whatever administration is in power and ensures that we get our fair share--or more if we can swing it. In that regard, the clash between the political titans is not good. But this is a showdown that has been brewing for years. Whether it is averted or goes forward is one of the most pressing political questions facing the state.

ALL HEATHER, ALL PATSY, ALL THE TIME
Laura Bush
There's no give in the latest Zogby/Reuters poll on the Heather-Patsy down-to-the-wire fight for the ABQ congressional seat. While Zogby has Madrid at 53% to incumbent Heather's 44%--a big nine point lead--an insider tracking poll has Madrid leading by a mere point and a half and that's where most seasoned observers see the contest with the race nearing its final 100 hours. The early October Zogby had it for Madrid 50.4% to 40.3%. The latest one was taken Oct. 24 thru Oct 29. Brian Sanderoff comes with the final ABQ Journal poll Sunday.

Laura and Bill fans are gushing over the upcoming visits of the First lady and ex-Prez. Clinton appears tonight for Patsy; Friday it's Laura Bush for Heather, we think. Its' pretty easy to see Clinton, but KRQE-TV's Dick Knipfing reported last night that if you are want to see Laura you will be "expected" to volunteer for the state GOP.

The Wilson campaign said Bush is here to rally volunteers, not specifically for Heather. Got that? Is this another six degrees of separation Heather is trying to put between herself and anything Bush? Got me. But it all sounds pretty complicated if the goal is to get people excited about voting for you. If the goal is to avoid having the First Lady face a bunch of anti-war protesters, it probably works.

MORE TRAIL NEWS

Here is a good take on the closing media strategies of our two gals from James Brosnan of the ABQ Tribune D.C. bureau.

The weather forecast for Election Day remains as iffy as the outcome of the congressional race with some showers currently forecast for Monday and Tuesday in ABQ and the possibility of a storm of as yet undetermined intensity possible in the Democratic north. We'll keep on the weather watch till E-Day.

The latest in-person early voting stats in big Bernalillo county has the Dems outperforming the R's. 10,882 D's have stood in line--some of them long ones--to cast their paper ballots. 7,782 R's and 2,381 independents and others have done the same. And here is a good, nonpartisan take on how that absentee ballot war is playing out. You can check my Wednesday blog for the latest absentee stats.

TAKING NOTE...

Death has called Eddie Benavidez, a well-known ABQ attorney and, in the words of his son, Javier, "a rare, old school Republican Hispanic." Among his many accomplishments, Eddie was a founder and president of the NM Hispanic Bar Association and served on the National Board of Directors of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

"He was a proud social justice oriented attorney, born and raised in New Mexico who loved his community," said Javier who works on the ABQ city council staff.

Edward Benavidez died of heart failure Monday night. He was only 58.

ONE FOR VICKIE

Under the headline, "You Take It Where You Can Get It," GOP secretary of state candidate Vickie Perea is pleased to have received the editorial board endorsement of the Farmington Daily Times. The endorsement cites Perea's interest in fixing the problems that have plagued New Mexico's election system.

Vickie had been getting shut out in the newspaper endorsement war with Dem Mary Herrera getting just about all of them.

SOME HUMOR PLEASE

Here is one of my favorite endorsements of the season. It comes from syndicated columnist Harold Morgan writing on the race for land commission between Dem Pat Baca and incumbent Pat Lyons: "Jim Baca is both a radical environmentalist and humorless." Says Harold.

Maybe Harold has a point. After all the negative campaigning, if a candidate can't make you laugh, give him the thumbs down. Hear that Baca? Brush up those one liners.

CARLA FOR CONGRESS?

Harold isn't the only one who has had it with the up-to-the-eyeballs negative campaign. "Inside the Capitol" columnist Jay Miller thinks those of us here in River City should cast our vote for KOB-TV anchorwoman Carla Aragon. Jay says he watched the TV debate between Wilson-Madrid and "the only times I felt truly comfortable were during the questions from Aragon, who is genuinely nice. It got me to thinking how much more I would like her to be representing NM in Washington."

Jay, I think Carla would make a fine congressperson too. But she'll never make it. She smiles at her guests, makes the audience feel comfortable and asks simple, direct questions.

Here is the attack ad columnist Ned Cantwell has ready to go:

"Carla Aragon--She smiles too much, panders to the electorate and can't ask irrelevant questions.

Carla Aragon--She'll get voters interested. Do we really need that?

This message paid for by Cynthia Izaguirre and Erika Ruiz."

We're with you for the stretch, blogging it straight thru Election Day and into the wee hours of November 8. Also, the KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve Special at 5 p.m. Monday and Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 and going all night long. Photog Mark Bralley has given up on Star-Trek re-runs and is on the trail with me and will have a report from the Clinton and Bush events. Well, that will probably be other-worldly too.

Join me here tomorrow and drop an email with your latest campaign news.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

No one can energize the Democratic base better than Bill Clinton and he will work to do just that when he jets into ABQ Thursday evening to help Patricia Madrid close out her tight fight with GOP Rep. Heather Wilson. Where the ex-Prez will appear has not been released yet, but it will be open to the public.

Clinton has always drawn large crowds around here and this time won't be any different. The one possible snafu is a too late arrival by Clinton. If he gets here after 10:30 he will miss the crucial 10 p.m. news broadcasts. But Clinton, whose perpetual tardiness has been a running joke, knows the stakes are the possible control of the U.S. House and it would be surprising if he came too late to maximize his impact.

For Madrid, the Clinton visit could be redemptive and wipe away unpleasant memories for her supporters from her unsatisfying debate performance and from which came yet another Wilson TV hit Tuesday. Heather tore into Patsy for saying on the KOB-TV debate that contributions from lobbyists wins them access to politicians.

Clinton's main impact will be on Dems and getting them fired up and out to the polls. In a race that could be decided by hundreds of votes, not thousands, it is exactly what top strategists recommend. The ex-Prez is making the rounds in a bevy of close congressional battles. Wednesday he is in Tennessee campaigning for senate hopeful Harold Ford. It appears he will be coming to ABQ from Tucson where he will push the turnout buttons in another House battle.

The Clinton visit will gather the entire Dem ticket, including his former energy secretary and U.N. ambassador Big Bill, who will be demoted to Junior Bill while Bill Clinton is in town.

Analysts speculated that besides Madrid, the visit could be most beneficial to Dem land commissioner candidate Jim Baca who is locking horns with GOP incumbent Pat Lyons. Any lift in Dem turnout in Bernalillo county would help thwart Lyons in the battleground county which Lyons must carry in order to offset Baca's probable Spanish North landslide.

DON'T FORGET LAURA

The announcement of Clinton's visit stole some of the thunder from the Wilson camp who earlier let it be known that First Lady Laura Bush will touch down here Friday to hail Heather. Unlike her husband, Laura polls better, appealing some across party lines.

NEUROSIS OUTBREAK!

Tracking polls, party polls and finger-to-the wind polls are circulating like a whirling vortex as they always do in the closing hours of a campaign. The Alligators have their eyes on all of them and believe the only major statewide race in play is the land commissioner battle. An extensive tracking poll shows none of the major GOP candidates yet moving forcefully ahead in Bernallio county as they must. As usual, undecided remain high in these races and will be mainly determined by party registration which overwhelmingly favors the Dems with 49% of the state's registered voters.

The lack of competitiveness of top tier Republicans for Governor and U.S. senate puts a damper on the hopes of the lower tier contenders. They would need significant ticket splitting to win in a year when analysts say straight Dem party voting may be significantly higher than usual. Also, pollsters say turnout will be lowest in the most conservative area of the state--the south--blowing more wind in the face of the down-ballot GOP hopefuls.

Still, R's have made inroads from the old days when 60% plus Democratic victories on the down-ballot races was routine. The insider track has Dem Gary King at over 50% and his GOP rival for attorney general, Jim Bibb, sitting in the high 30's, positioning King for a victory. R secretary of state candidate Vickie Perea, up against Dem Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera, has spent heavily on negative mail, and now TV, and appeared to halt Herrera's earlier momentum in big Bernalillo county. But Herrera Tuesday went up with a TV response to stop any bleeding. She has been twice elected here by huge margins and will do well in the Democratic North. Dem Treasurer candidate James B. Lewis is on the traditional trajectory for a statewide Democratic victory and Dem auditor candidate Hector Balderas has pulled ahead of Lorenzo Garcia in Bernalillo county after buying TV time.

WHERE WE HEADED?

Based on the latest polling, history and assessment of the campaigns, all the Dem statewide candidates, excepting Baca, are poised for wins. Bad Election Day weather in the north would be the most likely event to tighten the races. In 1986 R Hal Stratton edged out his Dem attorney general foe when a big snowstorm struck there. But Stratton did very well in Bernalillo, not a circumstance that seems in the offing for the R's this year.

The last ABQ Journal poll of the season is being conducted this week with results to be released Sunday, giving us our final trend lines going into Election Night.

WE'RE COUNTING EM'

Besides hysterics over the polls, the usual cat fight over who is doing best in absentee balloting is underway. The latest numbers in Bernalillo county show Dem Ballots returned total 6,701 and GOP ballots returned at 7,058.

Total Dem absentee ballots issued in big Bernalillo thus far are 24,740 and 23,254 for the R's. (9.8% went to independents and others.) The GOP is pleased with its numbers, but they fret over the low return rate, about 30% for them and 27% for the Dems. Will many not return them, or are they stuck in the snail mail? Or are R's just not that enthused about voting this year? (The D's have never been champs in absentee, counting more on the actual Election Day vote.) We shall see when the final count is released.

Polling has showed the Dems, who outnumber the R's by 39,000 in the 1st District, sticking to Madrid. If that is reflected in the absentee voting, Wilson will not be able to count on them putting her over the top as she has in the past, no matter how many R's end up voting.

Another item to note is the kind of voters marking the ballots. A Dem insider reports: "As of late last week, of the individuals that requested absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, about 40% of the Democrats are presidential year voters and not mid-term voters. For Republicans it was only about 25%. So unlike the Republicans, our vote-by-mail program is boosting unlikely Democrats and getting them to vote."

If the Dems end up not scoring better in absentee ballots, some serious questions will be raised about all the money spent on the program.

MORE FRAYED NERVES

This being the week of nervous breakdowns and Prozac overdoses, even more skittishness is being expressed. This time it's over those long lines at early voting sites in the ABQ area. Voters are waiting up to several hours to cast their votes using the all-new paper ballot system. Some of them are walking away without voting. Are most of them D's or R's? Ask the worry warts.

The all-paper system is the cause for the lines, not a huge surge in voter interest. It takes longer to mark the two sided ballot than working the touch-screen machines that were previously in use at the early sites.

All the worry over the insider baseball issues will form the foundation for the blame game sure to follow in the aftermath of Campaign 06'. Unlike predicting winners and losers with certainty, everyone can call that event with 100% accuracy.

Election Night coverage starts at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM, anchored by your blogger. The pre-game show is at 5 p.m. November 6 on the same station. Please join me for all the excitement of Campaign 06'.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

You wouldn't think Big Bill would need to scare the pants off of GOP foe John Dendahl. Maybe he just wants to have some Halloween fun as my Four Corners Alligators report Big Bill has hit the Farmington area mailboxes with a negative piece on John contrasting his position on legalizing drugs with Dendahl's. Joltin' John has raised the legalization banner in the past, but has tried to stay away from it during this race. It appears that the Guv is doing all he can to get over the magic 60% mark and is trying to eat away at Dendahl's Republican support in conservative San Juan. If he keeps it up, he may get fined for running up the score.

The Guv isn't against all Republicans. In fact, he was heard on answering machines around ABQ this week touting the candidacy of GOP Metro Court Judge Clyde DeMersseman who the Guv appointed to the bench and who is facing opposition from Dem Rachel Irene Walker Al-Yasi.

BIBB'S BIG BUY

All is not lost, sounded GOP attorney general candidate Jim Bibb Monday as he emailed the money-giving elite with a plea for another $100,000 saying his race with Dem Gary King has narrowed to "single digits." Is that one point or nine points, Jim?

Bibb, making his first run for elective office, has picked up huge money from out-of-state interests. It appears he has pumped more than a half million bucks into TV ads since the beginning of the month. And he needs more?

In the final week of a campaign, the polticios are like an alcoholic--one drink is too many and ten is not enough.

Tracking polls do show the AG's race closer than it was, but while King has come down some Bibb has not gone up much.

THE MARY MAID

Another R, Vickie Perea running for secretary of state against Dem Mary Herrera, came with last minute negative TV claiming Herrera ordered Starbucks coffee and had maid service while on a taxpayer funded trip. I wonder if the maid was an illegal alien, but I am sure Herrera had photo ID for the Starbucks.

RECORD BREAKS RECORD

And how about this one from our Gators in Chaves county. Not only has the Roswell Record endorsed a Democrat for Governor for the first time in a gazillion years, but the conservative scribes also threw their weight behind Dem State House candidate Ellen Wedum who is running against Nora Espinoza.

Nora is the favored candidate of State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair who helped Nora secure the GOP nomination in a biter contest with educator Mike Kakuska. Adair battled with the paper then, and now it's payback time. Wedum is not favored to take the prize, but she can frame the editorial as a keepsake of her moral victory.

MURPHY'S LAW?
Heather & Murphy
And our gal Heather was on the trail late last week in Roswell. Why would the ABQ GOP congresswoman be there since it is not in her district, you ask? One guess. Money. She attended a fundraiser and paused for this picture with Roswell oilman Mark Murphy. Murphy has been making rumblings about reforming the state GOP after the November 7th election to put it on a more mainstream path and increase its competitiveness. If he goes for it, he will no doubt tangle with Lightning Rod who has been one of several leaders of a breakaway faction of the GOP that has drawn the ire of centrist R's.

DEFROSTING THE BRAIN FREEZE

You know for sure when an attack ad is having an impact when the opposition sees fit to respond. So it is with Heather Wilson's brain freeze ad against Dem rival Patricia Madrid. Patsy launched Operation Brain Defrost with this ad on Monday, turning the tables on Heather and letting the spot go silent for several seconds after asking how often Wilson has questioned Bush on Iraq.

The Madrid-Wilson race has seen an astonishing 11,500 TV ads and over $11 millon spent overall, reports Mark Barabak of the Los Angeles Times (registration) who we again met with this week as he wrapped up his series of articles on the contest. (ABC's Nightline will focus on the battle later this week.) Mark will miss New Mexico, but he packed up a bunch of Barelas Coffeehouse tortillas with him to take back to enjoy with his family. Those California guys are quick studies.

The best TV ads this cycle have come from the Murphy, Putnam Shorr shop which is handling the TV for Madrid and Big Bill. Murphy and company have been quick to respond to any TV threat to Madrid and have positioned Big Bill well, especially with the humorous "western" ad which has been featured on several national cable networks.

Heather's campaign has not lacked in volume, but the focus has repeatedly shifted. That's something that has been hard to avoid as the campaign has not been able to find a single theme, like Iraq, that has worked for her. They have narrowed the spots down for the final week and it seems more effective. (Just don't let that duck out of the pond again, Heather.)

ABQ Mayor Marty made his 06’ campaign debut in a spot for Madrid. The mayor is his usual smooth self, but doesn't that American flag belong behind His Honor's right shoulder, not his left?

How close will Wilson-Madrid be? If the Guv is right, we may not know a winner Election Night. He predicts to the ABQ Trib's Kate Nash that Madrid will win by a mere one half of one percentage point. By my calculations, that would be less than 1000 votes and mean the lawyers could get in on the action. Let's cross our fingers and squeeze our rabbits' feet that whoever wins does so by a couple of thousand votes.

MY BOTTOM LINES

No candy corn for Big Bill tonight. The ABQ Journal's Trip Jennings reported on the Guv's new diet and his determination to slim down as he ponders a prez run. Trip was unable to get the Guv to disclose how much weight he has lost, but the Guv disclosed the secret in an interview with KKOB-AM radio Monday putting the number in "the high teens." Maybe we should start a pool. Will the Guv's weight loss by Election Day be greater or less than the percentage of victory he wracks up...

KRQE-TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti was downright spooky on the eve of Halloween. That is if you are a Democrat. Ronchetti's long-range forecast said to watch for some possible wet weather Election Day, surely a scary prospect for the Dems who count on a heavy vote November 7 since many of their traditional voters do not go for early voting. Of course, the weather forecasters can get into a fever pitch about these things, so much so that the Department of Homeland Securty might consider using them to announce the latest terorist threats...

Just one week to go and we're with you every day until E-Day, including the weekend, so email me your latest news from the top of the page and help keep the final stretch politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

On the trail
He does things in big ways and his coming re-election as Governor may be done in the biggest way in state history. According to insider tracking polls, Big Bill is positioned for an historic victory in the 62% range, and the Guv himself told supporters in Roswell he expects the "Democratic Party"--meaning him--to carry 32 of the state's 33 counties next week.

Which county is the lone hold out? The Guv pointed west to Catron, the biggest county in land area but one of the smallest in population--just 3,500. "I think that's a goner, but I'm going to go there. I'm going to try to get two votes out of there," he joked, reported the Roswell Record.

A 32 county 60% plus victory would apparently be unprecedented in a state with more than its fair share of conservatives. It may have been done in a U.S. Senate race (Email me if you know.) but for Governor where after four years of decision making enemies can pile up like dirty laundry in a corner?

For the record, Dem Jack Campbell crossed the finish line in the landslide year 64' with 60.2% of the vote to forge the biggest Guv win ever. If Big Bill surpasses that and also comes in with the 32 counties, it will be a once in a lifetime event to behold and put some additional wind at his back as he tests the waters for a run at the White House.

HOW HE GOT THERE

Big Bill is akin to Bruce King on steroids; he not only steals the thunder in any room he occupies; his political celebrity seeps out through the media in a way that enhances the cult of personality that King, the longest serving NM governor, was the first to cultivate.

But there is more here than personality. Big Bill is not an empty suit; he has mastered the details and pinpointed the institutional weaknesses of the New Mexican government and made it his own unlike any other executive in memory.

History will duly note that the State Supreme Court, the attorney general and the Legislature folded their hands at critical junctures to let Big Bill get even bigger. But the charge that he is a "dictator" or somehow abuses his fellow politicians rings hollow. The power goes to those who have the moxy to stand up and take it.

It also goes to those who have a knack for raising money. In that regard, the Guv has shown his flaws are sometimes equal to his strengths. Raising $12 million for a re-election effort in a state of 1.9 million reveals an appetite in need of restraint.

Campaign abuses are national, but our peculiar acceptance of politicos pushing the envelope on "pay to play" is a cultural barrier to attracting business and to keeping our best and brightest here. Raising and spending this kind of cash does not send a signal that reform is on its way.

Richardson's critics are most off mark when they criticize his ambition and argue it's all about him. What's wrong with wanting to succeed and be the best at what you do? Isn't that how we make life better for each other?

New Mexico has seen Big Bill up close and in action for four years. The collective judgment is that there is plenty of smoke and mirrors and political hanky-panky, but that they are asterisks to a record that has given hope to the next generation and their families that this can be their permanent home, not a way station to a better life elsewhere. It is this big idea that Bill Richardson has come to embody and which may very well be reflected in 32 of our 33 counties Election Night.

HEATHER'S DUCK

You don't need to know the latest insider tracking polls to know that ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson is having trouble closing out her race with Dem rival Patricia Madrid. You just have to know about the duck.

Wilson's campaign sent a gal dressed in a duck suit to a Madrid event Saturday to protest her "ducking debates," only to cause a skirmish that made the 10 p.m. news and reinforced the notion that Heather has yet to make the correct quacking sounds to persuade a war-weary electorate.

The duck had its foot stepped on by a Madrid supporter and showed up Sunday on crutches. "Is Heather trying to get used to being a lame duck?" quipped, or maybe quacked, one Dem Alligator.

As Joe Klein, writing in Time Magazine, puts it: "...The prospect of a hanging doesn't always concentrate the mind. Sometimes it leads to feral, piss-pants desperation."

Those insider polls basically show the race tied, but Wilson is still polling well below 50% with much of the undecided vote naturally bent towards the challenger. That's trouble in River City and the duck, along with the Gators chasing the tasty delicacy, know it.

COVERING THE DUCK

Heather was thrown a bone when Madrid misfired on Tuesday night's KOB-TV debate. Friday night she hit with a spot highlighting Patsy's brain freeze in which she went silent for seven seconds when asked about taxes. Could this finally be the spot that turns the race?

Wilson campaign manager Enrique Knell seemed to think so, going as far as saying that the twice elected Attorney General Madrid was "incompetent."

Those were fighting words over at the Madrid Quack Shack, where a spokeswoman asked: "Who is this guy?" Well, he is a guy with his back against the wall and trying not to be known as Enrique "Death Knell." It ain't easy either as the Alligators whiffed the tracking polls from Wednesday and Thursday and yelled, "no score." However, a track I have covering the entire weekend shows a couple of good nights apiece for Heather and Patsy, basically keeping this thing within the margin of error.

Wilson is light with Hispanics, thus her Sunday event where musician of note Al Hurricane endorsed her candidacy. Our Hurricane is not to be confused with Katrina, one of the reasons that at this late date Heather is still trying to close the deal with working class voters.

But back to Enrique's world where the Gators pointedly asked why, if it was so meaningful, it took the campaign three days to get the anti-Madrid debate ad on the air? (Were they waiting for the polling?) And who came up with the duck gimmick, which had Wilson's carefully crafted cool-as-a-cucumber "dignified" image getting all wet? Was that the same guy who let her go on the front pages bemoaning the fact that she could not ride in the State Fair parade?

Not that Madrid can sit back and gloat over this "incompetence." Dems are aching over her debate performance and hoping that there is not some kind of tape-delayed reaction. Her campaign is more sanguine than some who have seen victory snatched from the jaws of defeat too many times. They were pleased to see Patsy voice the end of her latest Iraq spot, showing that she can actually talk out loud, unlike the portrayal in Heather's brain freeze ad.

Since this is likely a one to three point race for whoever wins, everyone is going to stay jumpy for the next eight days, and no one is feeling ducky about that.

BOTTOM LIMES

KOB-TV complained with ferocity about the use of "their" debate footage in Wilson's latest campaign ad saying they did not want to have the impression left that they were endorsing any candidate and asked Wilson not to use it. But we've been to this play before. The Dems used KOAT footage back in 98' that the station objected to. There is no law against it and Wilson has every right to use it. The public ultimately owns the airwaves which are federally licensed to the broadcasters and they are required to take the ads of federal candidates. That trumps any argument over an ad possibly damaging the credibility of a station's news department.

The public is fully aware of what a political ad is. The station's concern is understandable, but misplaced. We hope it does not dissuade them having future debates as they did a good job this year.

But let's not take anything too seriously. Certainly longtime New Mexico newspaperman Ned Cantwell doesn't. Ned effectively roasts several of us who chronicle our beloved La Politica. We're honored to be included in Ned's satire of TV attack ads with Belshaw, Terrell and Calloway. I just wonder what those guys think of being included on a list with me.

Not that we wanted any more of them, but we wondered last week where were GOP Land Commissioner's Pat Lyons negative TV spots against Dem challenger Jim Baca? Well, they are now up, along with Baca's. Just what you needed to start your week, right?

Get ready for the KANW-89.1 FM pre-game show Monday, November 6 at 5 p.m. For a full hour we will run down the key races with predictions and analysis from my guests. This year it's GOP Rep. Larry Larranaga, Dem Rep. Al Park and veteran journalist Sherry Robinson doing the honors. Lobbyist Scott Scanland has been kicking the can around with me at this gig for many of my 19 years of KANW "pre-game" shows and he'll be back again. Election Night we start at 6:30 p.m. on KANW. But look at the time right now...gotta go. Back tomorrow. Same time, same station.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author